Making the Case for. Richard Perez U. Albany, ASRC

Transcription

1 Making the Case for Richard Perez U. Albany, ASRC

2 BIG RELIABLE LOW COST JOBS

3 BIG RELIABLE LOW COST JOBS

4 End-use-specific Solar Courtesy NREL-PIX Courtesy Ron Kamen, Earth Kind Energy Richard Perez

5 End-use-specific Solar UNIVERSAL SOLAR Courtesy NREL-PIX ELECTRICITY GENERATION Courtesy Ron Kamen, Earth Kind Energy Richard Perez

6 Richard Perez, et al.

7 Courtesy SolarOne Richard Perez Richard Perez, et al. PowerLight

8 Richard Perez, et al. Courtesy AltPower

9 Richard Perez, et al.

10 NOT NOT ENOUGH ENOUGH SUN, SUN, NOT NOT ENOUGH ENOUGH SPACE SPACE Richard Perez, et al.

11 Each square foot in New York can generate 20 kwh of photovoltaic electricity per year Photograph courtesy of AltPower, Inc. Richard Perez, et al.

12 120 billion kwh / year More than twice CONED s sales 73 million metric tons CO 2 (13 million cars) Richard Perez

13 Richard Perez

14 Only 0.75% of New York s area* would be needed to produce all the electricity used in the State *using 10% PV conversion Buildings, parking lots and roadways cover almost 3% of New York s area Richard Perez

15 Richard Perez, et al.

16 9 MW 10 kw Richard Perez, et al.

17 Richard Perez

18 Richard Perez All US electrical energy 25,000 km 2 PV 0.32% US Land Area

19 7% US electricity Hydropower artificial lakes > 100,000 km 2 Richard Perez

20 Richard Perez All World electrical energy from solar: 0.07% World Land Area

21 R. Perez et al. World energy use 16 TW-yr per year 16 ~ 475 exajoules ~ 460 Quads

22 RENEWABLES R. Perez et al per year WIND 1,2 Waves1 1, total Natural Gas 1, per year OTEC 1,4 240 total 2 6 per year Biomass 1,5 Petroleum 1,8 ANWR per year HYDRO 1,6 TIDES per year Geothermal 1,7 0.3 per year Total Uranium 1,9 FINITE ENERGY RESERVES 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8

23 SOLAR 10 23,000 per year R. Perez et al per year 3-11 per year OTEC 1,4 WIND 1,2 Waves1 1, Natural Gas 1,8 215 total 240 total World energy use 16 TW-yr per year 2 6 per year Biomass 1,5 Petroleum 1,8 ANWR TIDES per year 3 4 per year HYDRO 1, per year Geothermal 1, Total Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8

24 R. Perez et al.

25 R. Perez et al.

26 R. Perez et al.

27 BIG RELIABLE?

28 SOLAR ENERGY IS RELIABLE IN NEW YORK

29 SOLAR ENERGY IS RELIABLE IN NEW YORK Heat wave Richard Perez, et al. A/C electrical demand peak

30 Heat wave Richard Perez, et al. A/C electrical demand peak

31 Summer 2006 peak demand day New York City Load (MW) NYC LOAD NYC LOAD with 1000 MW PV Richard Perez, et al.

32 Richard Perez, et al. Power flow

33 ELECTRICAL DEMAND THROUGHOUT ONE YEAR 8760 hours Load Duration Curve Richard Perez et al.

34 ELECTRICAL DEMAND THROUGHOUT ONE YEAR NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours Richard Perez et al.

35 PV IMPACT AT 10% CAPCITY PENETRATION NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration Displacing highest stress 8760 hours Richard Perez et al.

36 NO PV PV at 10% Peak penetration Displacing highest stress 8760 hours Richard Perez et al.

37 HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC Black Hills Corporation Idaho Power Company Seattle Dept. of Lighting Bonneville Power Administration Portland General Commonwealth Edison Minnesota Power and Light Indianapolis Power & Light First Energy Wisconsin Public Service Corp Central Illinois Light Co Wisconsin Electric Power Co Northern States Power Ameren Illinois Power Company Tucson Electric Salt River Project Arizona Public Service SMUD S.Diego Gas & Electric Co Pacific Gas & Electric Nevada Power Central Maine Power Consolidated Edison Orange and Rockland Cambridge Electric Light Co Boston Edison United Illuminating Co Rochester Gas & Electric Tennessee Valley Authority City of Chattanooga Lincoln Electric System Colorado Public Service Co Omaha Public Power District Golden Spread Electric Coop City of Austin Jacksonville Electric Authority Tampa Electric Florida Power and Light Richard Perez et al., ASRC

38 Traditional View Lowest Capacity Random Energy output Power Plant Highest Capacity Ideally Dispatchable Power Plant ENERGY source: RReDC CAPACITY Effective View Richard Perez, et al.

39 Perez et al., ASRC Northeast US AUG 14 th, 2003

40 Toronto Detroit Boston Cleveland NYC Richard Perez, et al.

41 Sub-Island with enough generation to meet demand Sub-Islands with insufficient generation to meet demand Boston Toronto Detroit NYC Cleveland Northeast Electrical Island Boundary Richard Perez, et al.

42 NYC $1 Billion (Reuters) $1.1 Billion (The Guardian) US-Can $6.8 - $10.3 B (ICF Consulting) Perez et al., ASRC

43 Perez et al., ASRC

44 17:00 GMT 18:00 GMT As little as 500 MW of PV dispersed around the major northeastern cities would have prevented the blackout An investment of $ 3 billion Outage cost $ 8 billion 19:00 GMT 20:00 GMT Richard Perez, et al.

45 Richard Perez, et al.

46 2 levelized cents per kwh retail $300 Billion Grid Transmission Upgrade 5 wholesale 0 without Without incentives subsidies with With subsidies incentives Richard Perez, et al.

47 2 levelized cents per kwh retail wholesale $300 Billion Grid Transmission Upgrade 5 0 without Without incentives subsidies with With subsidies incentives Richard Perez, et al.

48 World PV production (MW) source ADEME, Solar Buzz, USDOE Others China Japan Europe US Average module manufacturing cost Source ADEME PHOTOVOLTAIC TENDENCIES - PRODUCTION - COST - EFFICIENCY 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% Evolution of thin film polycrystaline conversion efficiency source NREL 4% Richard Perez, et al.

49 3500 World PV production (MW) Others China Japan Europe US 500 Source ADEME GW/year Over half of new installed generation in the US will be PV Richard Perez, et al.

50 World PV production (MW) Others China Japan Europe US Load (MW) NYC LOAD NYC LOAD with 1000 MW PV Source ADEME Short term in NY High value Peak Shaving PV The state would directly benefit from up to 6,000 MW of PV, grid connected without significant infrastructure change Richard Perez, et al.

51 Long Term Very High Penetration Load management and storage Net Load (MW) Solar Generation Peaking storage utilization Normal storage or variable gen Excess solar to storage Base Load ELECTRIC VEHICLESWORKING IN TANDEM WITH HYDROPOWER 0 FLOW BATTERIES RENEWABLE HYDROGEN Richard Perez, et al.

52 JOBS?

53 Richard Perez, et al.

54 Eachmegawatt megawatt(mw) (MW)of ofphotovoltaic photovoltaic(pv) (PV)panels panels Each manufacturedininthe theus USemploys employs14 14people. people. manufactured EachMW MWof ofpv PVinstalled installedon onhomes homesininthe theus US Each employs people. people. employs EachMW MWof ofpv PVinstalled installedon oncommercial commercial Each buildingsemploys employs99people. people. buildings EachMW MWof ofpv PVmaintained maintainedemploys employs.3.3people. people. Each Richard Perez, et al.

55 R. Perez et al. BIG RELIABLE LOW COST JOBS

56 SOLAR 10 23,000 per year R. Perez et al per year 3-11 per year OTEC 1,4 WIND 1,2 Waves1 1, Natural Gas 1,8 215 total 240 total World energy use 16 TW-yr per year 2 6 per year Biomass 1,5 Petroleum 1,8 TIDES per year 3 4 per year HYDRO 1, per year Geothermal 1, Total Uranium 1,9 900 Total reserve COAL 1,8

57 solar WIND Coal Natural Gas Biomass Uranium Richard Perez Petroleum

58 Thanks for your attention