Measuring success in adaptation

Transcription

1 Measuring success in adaptation The need to measure: - to ensure delivery of the intended results - to provide value for money This session: How different countries are monitoring and evaluating progress Martin Parry Grantham Institute, Imperial College London and UK Adaptation Subcommittee on Adaptation martin@mlparry.com 1

2 Adaptation and mitigation as complements impact Warming already observed mitigation A A impact w/o action B mitigation only C adaptation only D adaptation and mitigation C B adaptation D 2oC 4oC temperature 2

3 Using indicators to monitor changes in risk Climate change Weather hazard potential impacts Adaptation action Residual exposure and risk Outcomes impacts Contextual factors Exposure and risk Building on IPCC (2008) and AEAT (2011)

4 Indicators to monitor change in flood risk Exposure/risk indicators Change in number of properties located in floodplain Trend Change in area of hard (impermeable) surfacing Adaptation action indicators Number of properties benefitting from flood defences Trend Uptake of property-level flood resilience measures Uptake of measures to make space for water and manage surface water run-off 4

5 Example of indicator of altered exposure: flooding of houses (UK) Number of new homes and % of new homes located within areas of high flood risk, (England) Number of completed homes in Flood Zone 3 Percentage of completed homes in Flood Zone 3 Source: Department of Communities & Local Government (2010) 5

6 Example of indicators of action/intervention: Takeup of flood prevention measures (UK) Sample of applications and consents for major development in areas at risk of river and coastal flooding in two English local authorities. Source: Arup (2011) for ASC 6

7 Identifying opportunities for cost-effective adaptation measures Flood resilient and resistant measures for Aire Catchment, 1-in-100 year shallow flood societal cost curve showing technical potential 2011 to 2026, damages avoided ( million) Retrofit Repair Chemical damp-proof Cost-benefit ratio Raised floor Raised floor Packages of measures million Source: Davis Langdon for ASC (2011) Treated timber floor Water-resistant plaster Plastic kitchen and bathroom units 7

8 Example of reducing exposure: To reverse long-term trend toward increasing water use

9 Possible indicators of progress in adaptation, water availability, UK Indicator Type Indicator Of Indicator Name Action/reducing risk Uptake of water efficiency methods (households) Long-term trend Most recent year Time Series trend Length % of properties with water meters (England and Wales) Action/reducing risk Water Losses Total Leakage (England and Wales) Action/reducing risk Uptake of water efficiency methods (households) Number of Household Water Efficiency measures installed? 2006 and 2011 Action/reducing risk Sharing of available water Volume of water traded between companies?? No data

10 Indicators of exposure to reduced water availability Type of indicator Indicator Of Indicator Name Long-term trend Most recent year trend Time Series Length Security of Supply Security of water Supply Index Demand Freshwater Abstractions Average per capita consumption- metered Demand households Average per capita consumptionunmetered households Demand (England) Average volume of water for irrigation per? Demand Hectare by crop type 2005 and 2011 Catchments where water is available for abstraction (England Water availability and Wales) Compliance with Environmental Flow Environmental Indicators (England and Quality Wales)

11 Extending the development of indicators to all key exposed UK sectors Damage to buildings and infrastructure from flooding and extreme weather (2012) Reduced water availability (2012) Impacts on agricultural/forestry production Impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems Impacts of overheating on health and infrastructure Changes to demand for energy Implications for international business supply-chains 7

12 Conclusions: Indicators to measure progress in adaptation Types of indicator: - of exposure or risk: probably the most useful (at present) - of actions taken: easy to measure but are they affecting outcome? - of altered outcome (i.e. reduced impact): but how to measure? (need clear attribution and long-term monitoring) Current indicators need to: - have national cover - be frequently collected (annually) - have establishable baselines Future indicators need: - new monitoring systems need to be established - research to establish baselines - research to establish attribution (both of impacts to climate change, and of reduced impacts to adaptive actions) 7