Citizen Science Opportunities

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1 Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin and Citizen Science Opportunities Annual Water Course February 13, 2018 Dr. Gigi A. Richard Hutchins Water Center at CMU Professor, Geology

2 2018 Water Year Oct Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Water year is named for the year in which it ends

3 How to define normal? We often compare hydrologic and meteorological data to the average of a recent 30-yr period = 30 years Warmer, drier and lower streamflow than 1970s = 30 years The new normal = warmer, drier, lower streamflow

4 Image credit: Colo. Foundation for Water Education ~80% of Colorado's water = Colorado River water

5 Importance of the Colorado River Water for nearly 40 million people Metropolitan areas have a combined metro gdp of $1.7 trillion (12th largest economy in the world) International treaty w/ Mexico and interstate compact between seven states Irrigates 2.2 million hectares of land (15% of US crops & 13% of livestock) Generates more than 4,200 MW of electricity Recreation & tourism A ribbon of green riparian areas in the Southwest make up less than 3% of the landscape, but provide critical resources for over 75% of wildlife from US Bureau of Reclamation, 2012, Colorado River Basin Study

6 Water Supply of the Colorado River Basin

7 Colorado Average Precipitation 15.5 in/yr Grand Junction 9.4 in/yr Boulder 20.7 in/yr Denver 15.5 in/yr Fort Collins 16.1 in/yr Breckenridge (Elev. 9,600 ) Annual high temperature: 48.9 F Annual low temperature: 18.1 F Average annual rainfall: inch Av. annual snowfall: inch (Period of Record : 01/01/1893 to 05/31/2016, from wrcc.dri.edu)

8 Climate & Hydrology of the Colorado River Basin 34% of watershed receives < 10 in/yr 84% of watershed receives < 20 in/yr Most of the runoff is produced by only 15% of the drainage area

9 Snow and Snowmelt Snowmelt is a significant contributor to runoff and water supplies over much of the Northern Hemisphere, and changes in snowmelt runoff will be one of the most pronounced hydrologic responses to global warming. Dingman, 2015, Physical Hydrology October 2, 2017

10 Hydrologic Importance of Snow About 1/6 of the world s population gets % of runoff from snow can be up to 65% on north coast of Alaska In the western US, 80-90% of renewable water comes from snow (From Ed Kim, NASA, Snow-EX) A smaller proportion of snowmelt than of rainfall is evaporated and transpired Snowfall contributes proportionally more to runoff and groundwater recharge (From Dingman 2015) From Dingman 2015

11 Snow Properties A granular porous medium Solid ice + air (+ liquid water) = 3-phase system From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US

12 Snow properties Snow density = mass of snow/volume of snow Percentage of water content From Judson and Doesken, 2000, Density of Freshly Fallen Snow in the Central Rocky Mountains, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 7, pp

13 Snow properties Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) water content

14 Snowmelt process From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US

15 Snowmelt process Snow melts from the top down Solar radiation Air temperature Wind From Doesken & Judson, 1997, A Guide to the Science, Climatology and Measurement of Snow in the US

16 How does this precipitation regime translate into timing of streamflow? Upper Colorado River Basin Fassnacht 2006 Lower Colorado River Basin Annual Hydrograph at CO-UT state line Data from usgs.gov

17 Colorado River at CO-UT State Line ( ) Colorado River near 29 Road in Grand Junction were wet years 1983 in the Grand Canyon Streamflow data from usgs.gov (Read The Emerald Mile by Kevin Fedarko)

18 Colorado River at CO-UT State Line Yampa River at Deerlodge, June 11, 2011, 23, 600 cfs ( ) 6 th highest flood at this gage 2011 Flood Yampa River, June 8, 2011, 19,600 cfs at Maybell Streamflow data from usgs.gov

19 Colorado River at CO-UT State Line 2012 Drought ( ) Lowest peak flow on record at this gage Streamflow data from usgs.gov

20 Streamflow data from usgs.gov Variability 2013 in timing and distribution of precipitation result Drought? in variable streamflow and availability Flood! of surface water supply Maps from

21 80% of the Water 80-90% of the Population From Colorado s Water Plan, Draft, December 10, 2014, Prepared by Colorado Water Conservation Board What do we do when we don t have water when and where we need it? 21

22 Lake Granby (539,800 ac-ft), Shadow Mtn. (18, 400 ac-ft) and Grand Lake 3.8 maf Blue Mesa Dam and Reservoir 940,700 ac-ft capacity 1.1 maf Photos from USBR 1.7 maf Dillon Dam and Reservoir 257,000 ac-ft capacity McPhee Dam and Reservoir 381,195 ac-ft capacity 1.8 maf 2.9 maf From High Country News

23 most regulated river in the world 3.8 maf Central Arizona Project 1.1 maf Total storage capacity is now 60 million ac-ft about 4 times the long-term mean annual flow at Lees Ferry (USBR 2012) Glen Canyon Dam, 1963 Lake Powell 27 million ac-ft storage capacity Photos by Peter McBride 29 maf 27 maf 1.7 maf 2.9 maf Consumptive use has increased All-American to Canal about Photo from Nasa.gov 90% of the long-term Colorado River Aqueduct Los Angeles & San Diego Yuma (Schmidt 2007) average annual flow at Hoover Dam, 1935 Lake Mead 29 million ac-ft storage capacity Photo by Peter McBride From High Country News

24 1983 Flood Natural Variability Controlled Variability Filling Lake Powell Oct. 1921

25 Hydrology Peak flows Base flows Total flow Resulting impacts Ecological riparian & aquatic Invasive species Habitat alteration Sediment supply & channel morphology Channel simplification Water Quality Q T DO Salinity Selenium 4 endemic endangered fish species From VanSteeter & Pitlick 1998

26 How do we use water in Colorado? Use ac-ft/yr Public Supply 950,000 Domestic Fresh 42,500 Irrigation 10,900,000 Livestock 41,300 Aquaculture 137,000 Industrial 146,000 Mining 32,000 Thermoelectric 86,300 Total 12,335,100 Irrigation 89% Data from Maupin, M.A., Kenny, J.F., Hutson, S.S., Lovelace, J.K., Barber, N.L., and Linsey, K.S., 2014, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, 56 pp.

27 Irrigation withdrawals, 2010 #2 ID #1 CA #3 CO 755 mgd 563 mgd 703 mgd 579 mgd Data from Maupin, M.A., Kenny, J.F., Hutson, S.S., Lovelace, J.K., Barber, N.L., and Linsey, K.S., 2014, Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1405, 56 pp.

28 Current Water Conditions Are we in a drought?

29 Precipitation 2017 Water Year 2018 Water Year Maps from

30 WY 2018 Snowpack Above Average 2018 About Average Below Average 2018 Maps from

31 Current Soil Moisture (from models) Green = Moist Yellow/red = Dry Maps from

32 Current Storage Blue Mesa Reservoir Summer 2017 Maps from

33 Temperature Maps from

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35 Why snow monitoring? Does temperature really matter?

36 May1, 2017 Above Average WY 2017 Snowpack 2017 About Average 2017 Maps from

37 From

38 From

39 From

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41 Importance of monitoring snowpack Snowpack trend analyses and modeling studies suggest lower elevation snowpack in mountain regions is most sensitive to drought and warming temperatures In Colorado, most watershed monitoring occurs in the high elevations Most streamflow monitoring is at lower elevation Image courtesy of Stephanie Kampf and Steven Fassnacht.

42 Snow monitoring network Map adapted from Hammond et al from Hammond et al. 2017

43 Results from 2016 Water Year During the 2016 water year, the Front Range sites generally had deeper snowpack and longer snow duration than the Grand Mesa sites Snow cover remained at the Front Range persistent site into June on the Front Range, whereas much of the snow at the persistent site on the Grand Mesa had already melted by early June. MODIS satellite imagery showing changes in snow at Front Range (left) and Grand Mesa (right) study watersheds from April to June 2016 (from Hammond et al. 2017). Instrument failures at some of the Grand Mesa sites led to some data loss

44 The Future Climate Change Projected annual temperature change for Colorado under RCP 4.5 for compared with the average. The dots show the median change across the model runs, and the boxes show the range between the 25th percentile of the model runs and the 75th percentile and the bars show the 10 th and 90 th percentiles.

45 As Temperature Evaporation will Crop transpiration Lake Powell Annual Evaporation ~600,000 ac-ft/yr Evaporation from soils Irrigation Streamflow

46 Earlier peak Impact on streamflow Projected monthly runoff change for Colorado River Headwaters for compared to Mar-May Jun-Sep

47 From Colorado s Water Plan, Draft, December 10, 2014, Prepared by Colorado Water Conservation Board The Future Increased length of growing season Increased temperatures Increased evapotranspiration Earlier peak runoff and lower latesummer flows Increased water demand Increased vulnerability to beetle infestation Increased frequency and severity of wildfire Decreased water quality Decreased annual runoff Lower Streamflow Decreased overall water supply Recreation impacts skiing, fishing, boating Increased groundwater usage

48 Planning for Resilience Variability in P & Q The Gap Global Climate Change Increased temperature Increased variability USBR 2012

49 C o l l a b o r a t o r s : K i r a P u n t e n n e y D r. S t e p h a n i e K a m p f D r. G r e g N e w m a n D r. M i c h a e l L e f s k y Funded by: Support from:

50 I N T E R M I T T E N T S T R E A M S Streams that do not flow continuously in space or time Photos by John Hammond

51 C R O W D S O U R C I N G S T R E A M F L O W P R E S E N C E / A B S E N C E O B S E R V A T I O N S

52 C R O W D S O U R C I N G J O I N N A V I G A T E R E C O R D S T R E A M F L O W P R E S E N C E / A B S E N C E O B S E R V A T I O N S

53 J O I N

54 J O I N streamtracker.org

55 N A V I G A T E RO A D S T R A I L S M O B I L E A P P L I C A T I O N or G P S U N I T

56 N A V I G A T E E s t a b l i s h e d l o c a t i o n s DOWNLOAD

57 N A V I G A T E E s t a b l i s h e d l o c a t i o n s Or Create New Location Stream Tracker locations nearby

58 R E C O R D FLOW S TANDING WATER NO FLOW M O B I L E A P P L I C A T I O N or P A P E R D A T A S H E E T S E N T E R E D O N L I N E

59 R E C O R D Easily view data to track change over time FLOW NO FLOW

60 Changes in flow

61 Changes in flow

62 Major changes in flow from precipitation

63 367 sites 2,217 observations

64 E M B R AC E T H E S C I E N C E

65 Looking toward a resilient water future for the Colorado River Basin Thank you coloradomesa.edu/water-center Yampa River, June 2011, G. Richard