2050 Simulator. Instruction manual. Developed by EDP

Transcription

1 2050 Simulator Instruction manual Developed by EDP

2 Copyright EDP Energias de Portugal, S.A This document and its contents belong exclusively to EDP Energias de Portugal S.A. and may not be reproduced or modified in any form or by any means, without the prior express written consent of EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A. 1

3 INDEX 1. FOREWORD TECHNICAL INFORMATION BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE SIMULATOR WEB VERSION MAIN SCREEN MENU SHARING RESULTS MOBILE VERSION SIMULATOR SCREEN CONFIG SCREEN MENU SHARING RESULTS METHODOLOGY DEMAND RESIDENTIAL, SERVICES AND INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORTS SUPPLY ELECTRICITY EMISSIONS OUTPUTS PRIMARY AND FINAL ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY ELECTRIFICATION OF SOCIETY GHG EMISSIONS ENERGY FLOWS PERFORMANCE RESULTS ENERGY BALANCE RENEWABLES EMISSIONS SYSTEM COSTS

4 7. ASSUMPTIONS PRIMARY AND FINAL ENERGY HEATING AND COOLING TRANSPORTS ELECTRICITY DEMAND SUPPLY CHP AND HEAT DIFFICULTY LEVEL EMISSIONS COSTS ELECTRICITY ENERGY AND CCS

5 1. FOREWORD The 2050 Simulator is a simplified model of reality. The aim of this tool is to convey, intuitively and pedagogically, the key variables of the energy sector as well as how to achieve its decarbonization. The results of this simulator should not, therefore, be understood as precise estimates, nor do they necessarily represent EDP s view on the energy policy options within the 2050 horizon. 2. TECHNICAL INFORMATION The 2050 Simulator was developed by EDP, and is accessible through web and mobile platforms: Web: Developed in HTML 5 with compatibility with devices without Flash Compatibility with Internet Explorer 9 and 10, Google Chrome 22, Firefox 16, Mobile Safari in ios 5 and 6 and the original browser of Android 4.0 and 4.1 App ios: free download from the Apple App Store Application for iphone with ios 5.0 or higher App Android: free download from the Google Play Store Application for Android version 2.3 or higher 4

6 3. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE By the year 2050 we will need to dramatically change the way we produce and consume energy. To mitigate the irreversible impacts of climate change, it is critical to reach a pathway of greenhouse gas emissions that limits global warming. In this context, the European Union is committed to reduce CO 2 emissions, by 2050, to 20% of 1990 levels. In a low-carbon society we will live and work with high levels of energy efficiency, in low-emission buildings with intelligent heating and cooling systems. We will drive electric and hybrid cars and live in cleaner cities with less air pollution and better public transports. Many of these technologies exist today but need to be further developed. In this context, EDP aims to contribute to an open debate, transparent and quantified, with the various stakeholders on the choices that Portugal will face in the coming years in order to significantly reduce its emissions by In the path towards sustainability of the energy sector and the country (taking into account the impact of this sector in terms of the environment, balance of goods and services, and economic competitiveness), there are important trade-offs that must be analyzed, understood and quantified, in order to help the decision making process. However, it is important to underline that 2050 is not a distant date taking into account the type, level and duration of investments in this sector, and thus choices made by Portugal in the next decade will still have impact by The objective of this exercise is to simultaneously optimize, for Portugal, three strategic axes that compete amongst themselves: Minimization of GHG emissions: ideally to reach 20% of 1990 levels by 2050, in line with the European Union s objective Minimization of total cost of energy: energy bill and total power generation cost Minimization of the difficulty level: taking into account the necessary public acceptance of the adopted energy policies This manual aims to explore how to use the simulator as well as to detail both the methodology and assumptions adopted for the calculations. Any comments and suggestions to improve this simulator are welcome and should be ed to simulador2050@edp.pt. 5

7 4. SIMULATOR The 2050 Simulator includes a total of 32 questions. Each energy pathway to 2050 consists of answering to these questions, which are grouped into 4 categories: Prices: long-term evolution of major international fossil fuels price indexes, as well as the European Union ETS 1 CO 2 price Energy demand: demand evolution of the various domestic sectors as well as fuel switching (e.g. oil to electricity in transports) Power generation or capacity: domestic power imports and installed capacity evolution CO 2 emissions 2 : GHG 3 capture, either by CCS 4 applied both to power generation and industrial processes, or by geosequestration For each question there are 4 available options. Intuitively, and with the exception of the price category, the lowest level option (lower difficulty of implementation) provides a Business as Usual (BaU) scenario while the highest level option (greater difficulty of implementation) implies a scenario involving major transformations and fast technological adoption. Each option, for each of the 32 simulator questions, has a brief description to provide intuition for the user choice s effort / impact. The simulator automatically reacts to any user option change. It should also be underlined that all responses are interrelated, i.e., an individual answer to a specific question may imply different results given the user s choices on the other simulator questions. Answers to all questions should meet the simulator s goal - simultaneous minimization of GHG emissions, total cost of energy and difficulty of implementation. GHG emissions reduction is always visible in the simulator screen. 1 ETS: Emissions Trading Scheme 2 CO2 equivalent (for simplicity, in this simulator, Greenhouse Gases are usually referred to as CO2) 3 GHG: Greenhouse Gases 4 CCS: CO2 Capture and Storage 6

8 The following table summarizes all the 32 available questions in the 2050 Simulator. Question categories Prices Energy demand Installed capacity and generation CO2 Emissions Area Question Units Answer Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Question description Fuels Oil price $'10/bbl n.d. Oil price by Fuels Coal price $'10/ton n.d. Coal price by Fuels Natural gas price $'10/Mbtu n.d. Natural gas prices by Other CO2 price '10/ton n.d. CO2 price by Residential Residential non-power energy demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Residential current non-power energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR Residential Residential energy efficiency in electricity % 0% 25% 50% 100% Degree of fulfillment of energy efficiency potential to reduce residential power demand by 2050 Services Services non-power energy demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Services current non-power energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR Services Services energy efficiency in electricity % 0% 25% 50% 100% Degree of fulfillment of energy efficiency potential to reduce services power demand by 2050 Industry Industrial demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Industrial energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR Transport Road transports demand % 10% 5% -5% -10% Road transportation energy consumption evolution by 2050 vs Residential Electrification of residential energy demand % 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of residential energy demand electrification by 2050 Services Electrification of services energy demand % 60% 70% 85% 100% Percentage of services energy demand electrification by 2050 Industry Electrification of industrial energy demand % 25% 30% 40% 50% Percentage of industrial energy demand electrification by 2050 Transport Electrification of road light transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage of road electric transports by 2050 Transport Fuel switching of road transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage fuel switching from oil to gas/biofuel of road non-electric transports by 2050 Transport Electrification of non-road transports % 10% 20% 30% 40% Percentage of non-road electric transports by 2050 Transport Fuel switching of non-road transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage fuel switching from oil to gas/biofuel of non-road non-electric transports by 2050 Power Hydroelectric generation TWh Gross hydro power generation (including pumping) by 2050: current 12 TWh and expected ~20 TWh by 2020 (average hydro year) Power Nuclear power MW Nuclear capacity by 2050 (0, 1, 2 or 3 nuclear power plants): no current nor expected capacity by 2020 Power Onshore wind power MW Onshore wind capacity by 2050: current 4,400 MW and ~5,300 MW expected by 2020 Power Offshore wind power MW Offshore wind capacity by 2050: current 2 MW with no additional capacity expected by 2020 Power Biomass and MSW power MW Biomass and MSW capacity by 2050: current 290 MW and ~370 MW expected by 2020 Power Solar PV power MW Solar PV (large scale) capacity by 2050: current 130 MW and ~180 MW expected by 2020 Power Solar CSP power MW Solar CSP capacity by 2050: no current capacity but ~50 MW expected by 2020 Power Geothermal power MW Geothermal capacity by 2050: current 30 MW with no additional capacity expected by 2020 Power Ocean power MW Ocean capacity by 2050: no current capacity but ~6 MW expected by 2020 Power CHP power MW CHP capacity by 2050: current 1,800 MW and ~2,000 MW expected by 2020 Power Distributed generation power MW Distributed generation capacity by 2050 (Solar PV): current 60 MW and ~320 MW expected by 2020 Power Power imports TWh Power imports by 2050: historical values from last 5 years range 5-10 TWh Power Installed CCS capacity in the power sector MW CCS power capacity by 2050 (from 0 up to 5 power plants, starting operations from 2025) Industry Industrial processes with CCS % 0% 25% 50% 100% Percentage of industrial processes with CCS by 2050 (starting operations from 2025) Geosequestration Emissions' reduction due to geosequestration MtonCO CO2 geosequestration by 2050 (reducing GHG emissions from 0 to 3 Mton/year, starting operations from 2025) 5 Base case scenario considers IEA (International Energy Agency) long-term forecasts 6 Base case scenario considers IEA (International Energy Agency) long-term forecasts 7 Base case scenario considers IEA (International Energy Agency) long-term forecasts 8 Base case scenario considers European Commission long-term forecasts 7

9 4.1. WEB VERSION Main screen After the entry screen, which frames and launches the energy challenge for 2050, the user accesses the 2050 Simulator main screen, as presented in the following figure. Outputs selector (charts/tables) Output charts/tables Menu Language selector Emissions barometer (2050 emissions vs. 1990) Horizontal scroll for additional Question categories selector (Prices, Demand, Generation and Emissions) Answer switch (4 answer choices) Chart legend questions Answer switches allow the user to select among the 4 available levels. The answers to these 32 questions determine the outcome of the simulation. Whenever the user changes any switch level, the simulator recalculates all results updating the presented charts and tables. To access all available questions within the same category one should use the horizontal scroll. 8

10 Click on each question for a pop up to appear with a corresponding explanation. Additionally, by selecting different answer switch positions, it is possible to view a brief description of each position. By accessing the outputs selector, it is possible to view the various options available for the simulator s outputs. For some options, there are switches that allow different breakdowns of the same output. The emissions barometer allows to monitor the evolution of the "2050 Emissions / 1990 Emissions" ratio in real-time. Thus, it is possible for the user to define a set of options that lead to a number greater than 100%, i.e., an increase of carbon emissions rather than a reduction. The barometer changes its color according to the user s result. The language selector lets the user change the language of the simulator between Portuguese and English. The selected language flag appears in dimmed tone while the other country s flag appears in full color. 9

11 Menu At the top of the simulator there is a button to access the menu. By clicking over the icon to the right of the menu, a bar slides down from the top allowing access to all available options. This menu has the following options: Choose a scenario: allows to choose one of 5 pre-designed scenarios that aim to typify different visions of the future 9 : Electrification Balanced green Fossil fuels Nuclear Full efficiency Start over: reset simulation parameters by setting all answer switches back to starting positions: Question about prices: all answers return no level 2 (base case prices) Remaining questions: all answers return no level 1 (lowest difficulty of implementation) Share results: allows the user to share simulator results: Share simulator results with the selected pathway on facebook or twitter Going forward, other users can see simulator results and begin their pathway based on this starting point Instructions: allows the user to download a PDF or a video containing instructions and further details regarding the simulator s operation 9 For example, for the "full efficiency" scenario, all the choices set in the answer switches typically correspond to options made by a hypothetical supporter of this paradigm 10

12 To close menu click on "X" Sharing results By choosing the share results option (facebook or twitter) the user accesses a text box to write his/her name that will appear in the social network. The share results option generates a link to the simulator website, keeping the user s answers. Thus, by clicking on this shared link afterwards (facebook or twitter) other users will be directed to the simulator, visualizing a bar at the top indicating that the presented result is the first user s. 11

13 By clicking "Make your simulation" this bar disappears allowing the new user to try to improve the outcome, starting from a preload of the first user s answers MOBILE VERSION The simulator is also available in a mobile version through both Android and ios apps. The app shows an emission results area, a chart / table content area and a menu that lets the user switch between 3 alternative screens: Home: entry screen that introduces and launches the energy challenge for 2050 Simulator: screen that allows visualization of simulator charts / output table Config: setup screen that allows to define the simulation parameters through the answer switches 12

14 Emissions Barometer Content / Chart / Table Menu The emission results area shows the emission barometer with the same rules and features of the web version Simulator screen In the simulator screen, the user can visualize all the available outputs. Menu button Output selection Chart / Table selection Output (chart / table) 13

15 Turning the device from portrait to landscape, the output (chart / table) switches to full screen, allowing a better visualization of the simulator s results Config screen The setup screen allows changing of the positions of the answers switches. A horizontal slider gives access to the various question categories - Prices, Demand, Generation and Emissions. To access all other answer switches of the same category slide the finger up and down on the screen. 14

16 Horizontal slider to access to the various question categories Answer switch "i" button to bring up a brief explanation of the selected question Selecting the "i" button next to each answer switch brings up a brief explanation of the selected question. Additionally, by selecting each answer switch position, it is possible to view a brief description of that position. 15

17 Menu To access the menu screen slide the finger horizontally (swipe) from the left side border of the screen or tap on the menu button. Each option in this menu is similar (with the same name) to those in the web version Sharing results To share results (facebook or twitter) the user should select Share Results from the menu screen and write his / her name. The web link generated by the simulator to share results will be pointing to the web version platform. 16

18 5. METHODOLOGY According to the user s answers, the 2050 Simulator calculates the detailed demand and supply energy balance for Portugal until This balance includes the various energy flows between primary energy, final energy and consumption by sector. Based on these energy flows it is possible to estimate the evolution of national emissions, as well as to have a proxy of the electricity and energy cost in Portugal DEMAND From the demand point of view there are 4 sectors to take into account: Residential Services, agriculture and fishing Industrial Transports Residential, Services and Industrial According to the user s answers, residential, services and industrial demand can evolve in both volume and technology mix. In this sense, the consumption of these sectors is determined as follows: Non-electric consumption = Demand non-electric 2010 x CAGR x (1 - % Electrif. ) Electric consumption = Demand non-electric 2010 x CAGR x % Electrif. / Eff. Gain + BaU EE In what regards the residential, services and industrial demand: Demand non-electric 2010 : 2010 non-electric demand CAGR 10 : Compound annual growth rate of non-electric demand from 2010 to 2050 % Electrif : Electrification percentage of non-electric demand from 2010 to 2050 Eff. Gain: Efficiency gain from electric options compared to alternatives based on other technologies BaU: Electricity demand BaU evolution EE: Energy efficiency achieved in the electricity sector 10 CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate 17

19 The user is allowed to define the following parameters: i) CAGR (non-electric demand): residential, services and industrial ii) EE (electric demand): residential and services iii) % Electrif : residential, services and industrial Non-electric energy consumption evolves according to the CAGR set by the user (+120%, +50%, equal or -33% of current consumption by 2050). The CAGR, which corresponds to the average growth rate between 2010 and 2050, is based on a convergence with historical growth so as not to present disruptive values. Electric energy consumption evolves according to the simulator s pre-defined BaU. This BaU is in line with long-term evolution forecasts of key economic and demographic variables. In this sense, BaU foresees an average power demand increase of 1% / year between 2010 and 2050, assuming a growing improvement in energy intensity for a long-term GDP growth of 2% / year. Power consumption, prior to electrification of other sectors, is obtained by subtracting EE from BaU. In this sense, the user has the possibility to define the power consumption evolution of by setting the level of adoption of EE measures estimated until 2050 (0%, 25%, 50% or 100%). The maximum EE technical potential was calculated using a bottom-up analysis, analyzing the economic viability of a wide range of specific measures in the various national sectors, and then applying a set of constraints in order to forecast a realistic EE potential (excluding expensive non-mature technologies, limiting high paybacks, using realistic adoption curves over time, etc.). For simplification, the user does not have the possibility to define the EE adoption level for the industrial sector, which is in line with the electrification percentage option. Changes in power consumption profiles can be defined by the user by answering the electrification percentage questions. To this end, the electrification options are modeled based on adoption curves applied to non-power consumption. This technology shift can allow for efficiency gains by reducing the overall energy consumption of the system: With efficiency gains in terms of final energy: heat pumps applied to space heating and hot water Without efficiency gains in terms of final energy: ovens / stoves electrification for the residential and services, as well as furnaces / boilers electrification for the industrial sector The efficiency gains associated with heat pumps are defined through the CoP 11, which evolves from 4 in 2020 up to 6 in According to the power generation mix, the electrification process can also generate additional efficiency gains in terms of primary / final energy conversion. 11 CoP - Coefficient of Performance 18

20 Transports According to the user s answers, transports demand can evolve in both volume and technology mix. In this sense, the consumption of this sector is determined as follows: Road transports: Oil = km 2010 x 2050/2010 x Consumption/km x (1 - % Electrif. ) x (1 - % Bio/Gas ) Electricity = km 2010 x 2050/2010 x Consumption /km x % Electrif. / Eff. Gain Bio/Gas = km 2010 x 2050/2010 x Consumption /km x (1 - % Electrif. ) x % Bio/Gas Non-road transports: Oil = Cons Oil 2010 x CAGR x (1 - % Electrif. ) x (1 - % Bio/Gas ) Electricity = [Cons Oil 2010 x (% Electrif - % Electrif ) / Eff. Gain + Cons Electr 2010 ] x CAGR Bio/Gas = Cons Oil 2010 x CAGR x (1 - % Electrif. ) x % Bio/Gas In what regards to road transports demand: km 2010 : total kilometers in Portugal during 2010, obtained by multiplying the number of vehicles by the annual average kilometers (number of vehicles expected to increase over the simulator s period) Consumption/km: combustion engines average consumption per km (a decreasing consumption evolution is assumed over the simulator s period due to expected increases in efficiency) 2050/2010 : 2050 road transport energy consumption vs (either by variations of the number of vehicles, the annual average kilometers or the engines average consumption assumed in the simulator) % Electrif : share of electrical road transport in 2050 % Bio/Gas : non-electrical road transports to switch fuel from oil products either to natural gas or biofuels until 2050 Eff. Gain: efficiency gain of electrical engines vs. combustion engines (at a global energy cycle level) In what regards to non-road transports demand: Cons Oil 2010 : oil products consumption of non-road transports in 2010 Cons Electr 2010 : power consumption of non-road transports in 2010 CAGR: compound annual growth rate of non-road transports energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 (1% CAGR predefined) % Electrif : electrical non-road transport share by 2050 % Electrif : electrical non-road transport share by 2010 % Bio/Gas : non-electrical non-road transports to switch fuel from oil products either to natural gas or biofuels until 2050 Eff. Gain: efficiency gain of electrical engines vs. combustion engines (at the global energy cycle ) 19

21 The user is allowed to define the following parameters: i) 2050/2010 : road ii) % Electrif : road and non-road iii) % Bio/Gas : road and non-road Road transport energy consumption evolution can be set by the user via 2050/2010. Thus, the user can define the expected 2050 consumption level vs (+10%, +5%, -5% or -10% current consumption by 2050) taking into account future expectations on public transport, demographic changes or work-athome materialization. For non-road transport, a 1% CAGR until 2050 is considered. Changes in transport consumption profiles (road and non-road) can be defined by the user by answering either the electrification questions (% Eletrif ) or the fuel switching questions from oil products (gasoline / diesel) to natural gas and biofuels (% Bio/Gas ). Electrification options for transports are modeled based on adoption curves applied to new sales profiles. This technology shift allows for efficiency gains by reducing the overall energy consumption of the system (higher efficiency of the electric motors). Oil alternatives for non-electric transports (to natural gas and biofuels) are also modeled based on adoption curves applied to new sales profiles SUPPLY From the supply point of view, the simulator considers final energy obtained both directly from the respective primary energy source and from energy transformations: Final energy from the respective primary source: Oil products (gasoline, gasoil, fuel oil, etc.) Coal Natural Gas Bio (biomass, biogas e biofuels) Solar thermal Final energy from energy transformations (electricity and CHP 12 ): Electricity: from Thermal generation or Power network (primary energy directly to electricity, like wind generation) Heat: from fuel oil, natural gas or bio (biomass e biogas) CHP Whenever supply exceeds demand, the simulator exports excess energy. 12 CHP Combined Heat and Power 20

22 Electricity The user can select the energy or capacity of the various available technologies to meet 2050 electricity demand: Hydroelectric and imports: energy [TWh] available to the system Other technologies: installed capacity [MW], having in mind the working regimes To close the electricity balance, the simulator uses natural gas power plants (not user-defined), as follows: (Domestic production + Imports) > Domestic demand natural gas generation is zero, with export of excess electrical production (Domestic production + Imports) < Domestic demand natural gas generation is calculated in order to meet the remaining demand, i.e., Natural gas generation = Domestic consumption - Domestic Generation - Imports Additionally, the simulator also ensures that the installed capacity of natural gas power plants is sufficient to meet power peak demand. To this end, the simulator assumes the current consumption profile (5,500 hours) to determine power peak demand. Based on peak demand availability factors, natural gas installed capacity should ensure a safety margin of at least 110% compared to the peak demand. Any additional costs related to natural gas-fired plants under-utilization, required to avoid black-outs, are considered in the simulator. As an example, the power balance for 2020 based on the lowest difficulty pathway is presented (other pathways would lead to different domestic consumption values requiring thermal generation adjustments, namely at the level of natural gas generation) Power balance Energy by 2020 [TWh] Renewable and CHP generation 40.5 Thermal generation (coal, natural gas and fuel oil) 17.5 Net imports 4.5 Pumped hydro consumption -3 Transport and distribution losses -5.5 Domestic consumption 54 21

23 5.3. EMISSIONS GHG emissions are responsible for a global temperature increase of the planet with a strong impact on climate change. To estimate total emissions, the simulator considers: CO 2 emissions (energy related): CO 2 from fuel combustion processes (energy, transports, industry, services and residential sectors) CO 2 emissions (non-energy related): CO 2 from non-energy processes (mainly from industrial processes) Non-CO 2 GHG emissions: CH 4, N 2 O, among others, representing about 20% of total greenhouse gas emissions (mainly from agriculture and waste) Non-CO 2 emissions cannot be changed by the user. Regarding CO 2 emissions, in addition to the fuel switching options that allow for replacing the hydrocarbon consumption (coal, oil or natural gas), there are two mechanisms directly impacting CO 2 emissions, allowing for a reduction of its impact on the atmosphere: CCS: impacting only the following CO 2 emissions: Power sector: CO 2 emissions (energy related) from coal-fired power plants Industrial sector: CO 2 emissions (non-energy related) from industrial processes Geosequestration: impacting all CO 2 emissions CCS is the process of capturing CO 2 from carbon emitting sources, transporting it to a storage site, and depositing it where it will not enter the atmosphere, normally an underground geological formation or deep in the oceans, thus avoiding harmful consequences for the environment. Any process resulting from hydrocarbon combustion with oxygen is a carbon emitting source. Although the process of capturing and injecting CO 2 in geological formations is well understood and has been in use in other industrial applications for several decades, such as enhanced oil recovery, long-term CO 2 storage is a relatively new concept. The first commercial example was Weyburn, in 2000, but there are still many uncertainties in terms of large-scale operational, safety and costs. CCS cannot capture all CO 2 emissions resulting from a combustion process, besides reducing process efficiency by increasing energy consumption. In this sense, the simulator only assumes a 90% emissions capture from combustion processes, as well as an efficiency reduction of 10% (compared to the same process without CCS). In the 2050 Simulator, CCS can be defined through the installed power capacity with CCS option (coal-fired plants) and the percentage of CCS in the industrial sector option. Geosequestration is one of the geoengineering goals that proposes to solve the planet's climate problems by controlling and manipulating the key variables of the environment, such as GHG emissions. Geosequestration technologies can remove CO 2 directly from the atmosphere by storing it in rocks, mud or other geochemistry materials. An example of this technology is the use synthetic trees to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere. The 2050 Simulator has four options regarding geosequestration - removal of 0, 1, 2 or 3 MtonCO 2 / year from the atmosphere by

24 6. OUTPUTS The 2050 Simulator enables the visualization of a wide range of outputs. These outputs include charts and tables with data from 2000 to 2050 (actual historical values from 2000 to 2010) grouped into the following categories: Primary energy demand [ktoe]: domestic primary energy demand Final energy [ktoe]: domestic final energy demand by fuel by sector Domestic power demand [ktoe]: power supply / demand by technology by sector Electrification of society [%]: share of electricity in final energy consumption for each sector GHG emissions [MtonCO 2 eq]: total Greenhouse Gas emissions Energy flows [ktoe]: sankey graphs with primary, final and consumption energy flows by 2020 by 2050 Performance [% emissions vs. 000M and % difficulty]: positioning of the chosen path GHG emissions reduction vs. cost of energy GHG emissions reduction vs. difficulty level Results Energy balance Energy dependency [%] Primary energy vs. BaU [%/year] Renewables Renewables / Final energy [%] Renewables / Power generation [%] Emissions Emission factor [gco 2 /kwh] GHG emissions vs [%] System costs Energy bill [M '10 /year] Cost of energy [M '10 /year] Power generation costs [ '10 /MWh e ] Cost of energy [ '10 /MWh] 23

25 The simulation outputs are updated online whenever the user changes any option. Outputs have a switch allowing the user to switch between charts and tables. As an exception to this feature, and for simplification purposes, the following three outputs do not have both options: Energy flows: only available in chart Performance: only available in chart Results: only available in table 6.1. PRIMARY AND FINAL ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY This output shows, both in chart and table views, the evolution of domestic primary and final energy demand, as well as electricity, from 2000 to Data from 2000 to 2010 correspond to actual historical values. 24

26 6.2. ELECTRIFICATION OF SOCIETY This output shows, both in chart and table views, the evolution of electricity percentage in domestic final consumption, detailed by sector: Transports Industry Services, agriculture e fishing Residential Data from 2000 to 2010 are actual historical figures GHG EMISSIONS This output shows, both in chart and table views, the evolution of total GHG emissions, detailed by: CO 2 emissions (non-energy related) CO 2 emissions (energy related) Non-CO 2 GHG emission Data from 2000 to 2010 are actual historical figures ENERGY FLOWS This output shows detailed energy flows from the various Primary Energy sources (left) to Final Energy consumption by sectors and losses (right). Between primary energy and final energy / losses, the following energy transformations can be seen: CHP (to heat and electricity) Thermal generation (to electricity) The Electric Grid box includes all power energy from the various electrical sources (renewables, thermal generation, CHP or imports). Losses to the right of the Electric Grid are exclusively transmission and distribution power losses. 25

27 This chart is available for 2020 and Click over any flow line or graph box to highlight the related elements, thus facilitating their comprehension. 26

28 6.5. PERFORMANCE Performance graphs allow to depict a user s pathway along three strategic axes (Emissions, Cost of energy and Difficulty of implementation), and compare it with the five pre-defined paths in the simulator. In this sense, performance is analyzed simultaneously in two aspects: GHG emissions reduction vs. cost of energy GHG emissions reduction vs. difficulty level A user s pathway, shown in the performance graphs as an (x, y) point, is a center of a crosshair that divides the solutions space into four quadrants, as shown in the following figure. Thus, for each aspect of the performance analysis, a different solutions space regarding the user s pathway can be identified: Solutions space dominated by the user s pathway: right upper quadrant Solutions space dominating over the user s pathway: lower left quadrant The remaining solutions have different cost / benefit ratios corresponding to different commitments of the society. There are no right or wrong answers, only more cost-effective ways to reduce GHG emissions. 27

29 6.6. RESULTS The simulator s results fall into four groups: Energy Balance (energy dependency and primary energy vs. BaU) Renewables (renewables/final energy and renewables/power generation) Emissions (emission factor and GHG emissions vs. 1990) System costs (energy bill, energy cost and power generation cost) The three highlighted values by the frames show the results of the three simulator s objectives: GHG emissions, by 2050, vs levels Total cost of energy Difficulty level 28

30 Energy balance Energy dependency: Calculated as the ratio between total primary energy obtained in Portugal and total primary energy consumed in Portugal Primary energy obtained in Portugal is computed by adding the following energy sources: Bio (biomass 13 e biogas) Solar thermal Electric renewables (hydroelectric, wind, solar, geothermal, ocean, etc.) Primary energy vs. BaU: Calculated as the ratio between total primary energy consumption resulting from the user s pathway and total primary energy resulting from the lowest difficulty pathway (BaU) Renewables Renewables / Final energy: Calculated as the ratio between all renewables generation (electric or non-electric) and total final energy consumption Renewables / Power generation: Computed as the ratio between: Numerator: renewable power generation 14 minus hydro generation from pumped-hydro (excluding imports) Denominator: gross power generation (including losses and pumped-hydro consumption) Emissions Emission factor: Calculated as the ratio between all GHG emissions and total final energy consumption GHG emissions vs. 1990: Calculated as the ratio between all GHG emissions and all GHG emissions by Domestic biomass up to ~ 42 TWh per year, according to the CA70 scenario of the National Low Carbon Roadmap (Roteiro Nacional de Baixo Carbono) 14 Adjusted for an average hydro year 29

31 System costs Energy bill: Total cost of both energy imports and CO 2 necessary to meet domestic demand Net imports are computed by accounting for the following energy sources: Nuclear Coal Natural gas Bio (imported biomass 15 and biofuels) Power imports Any margin obtained through exports is not deducted Total cost of energy: Sum of the following items: Energy bill Power generation costs (excluding power imports) CCS costs applied to the industrial sector Power generation costs: Calculated as the ratio between Power generation costs (including power imports) and total domestic power demand Cost of energy: Calculated as the ratio between Total cost of energy and total Final energy consumption 15 In addition to 42 TWh / year 30

32 7. ASSUMPTIONS The 2050 Simulator is applied to Portugal using actual data from 2000 to The sources used for this data are: DGEG (Energy balance 16 ): consumption and energy flows DGEG (Energy bill): volumes and energy imports prices EEA (European emissions balance): actual GHG emissions in Portugal From 2010 to 2050, the simulator considers the following data types: Fixed data: predefined assumptions Variable data: depend on the user s answers A wide range of data sources was used for the fixed data between 2010 and As an example, some of the sources used for this purpose were: IEA (World Energy Outlook): long term prices Governo (PNAER revisto 17 ): renewables objectives to 2020 RNBC (Roteiro Nacional de Baixo Carbono): emissions, scenarios and assumptions Eurelectric (Power Choices): evolution of non-energy related emissions In the following sub-chapters, a brief description of the remaining existing fixed data in the 2050 Simulator is presented PRIMARY AND FINAL ENERGY The simulator does not foresee stock changes, so that the generation / energy supply is indeed equal to the energy needs identified at the consumption level. Energy consumption is measured at the final energy level; in this sense, losses are considered whenever there is transmission and distribution from generation / supply up to final consumption: Electricity: 8.8% (of power generation) Natural gas: 0.5% (of domestic demand) 16 Only 60% of historical residential biomass from the DGEG energy balance was considered, in line with other southern European countries consumption / capita downward adjustment already reviewed by DGEG from the 2010 energy balance onwards; in addition, non-energy oil consumption was not considered 17 Strategic guidelines for reviewing the National Roadmap for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency, Portuguese government, Jun'12 31

33 Final energy to primary energy conversions are made based on the following table (data for 2050). Primary energy Electricity Heat and Cooling Transports Nuclear 38% - - Coal with CCS 35% 80% - Coal without CCS 31% 80% - Oil 30% 80% 90% Natural Gas 50% 80% 95% Biomass 30% 100% - Biogas 30% 100% - Biofuels - 90% 90% Solar thermal - 100% HEATING AND COOLING Heating and cooling energy needs are the sum of: Power consumption: electrical heating and cooling systems Heat pumps presenting an increased penetration potential after 2020 Heat pumps efficiency gains defined through CoP evolution, as presented in following table CoP Heat pumps Non-power consumption: non-electrical heating and cooling systems Current fuel mix evolving to the mix presented in the following table (data for 2050) Source of energy Residential Services Industry Coal 0% 0% 0% Oil 0% 0% 0% Natural Gas 35% 75% 57% Biomass 30% 0% 40% Biogas 5% 5% 3% Biofuels 0% 0% 0% Solar thermal 30% 20% 0% Total 100% 100% 100% Note that the shift from non-power consumption to power consumption (electrification) is a user-defined parameter. 32

34 7.3. TRANSPORTS A predefined technological change for transports is assumed, from oil products to electricity or other fuels, as described in the following table (taking effect only after 2020). Type Vehicle Power alternative (vs. oil) Non-power alternatives (vs. oil) ICE 18 gasoline car 50% BEV 19 50% PHEV 20 CNG 21 Light duty road ICE diesel car 50% BEV 50% PHEV Biofuel ICE gasoline motorbike Electricity n.a. Heavy road Truck ICE diesel n.a. CNG Non-road Various (ships, trains and airplanes) Electricity 80% Biofuel 20% Natural gas For road transports, unit consumption reductions are considered over time for all technologies by increasing vehicle energy efficiency, as presented in the following table. Vehicle Source of energy Consumption [kwh/100 km] ICE gasoline car Gasoline 76,9 52,4 ICE diesel car Diesel / Biofuel 78,0 53,1 PHEV car Gasoline / Electricity 23,3 16,7 BEV car Electricity 18,0 13,4 CNG car Natural gas 76,9 52,4 Motorbike - ICE Gasoline 43,4 29,6 Motorbike - BEV Electricity 4,5 3,4 Truck Gasoline / Natural Gas 394,1 268,5 For non-road transports a 1% CAGR consumption is considered. This value takes into account the expected increase in non-road energy needs with growing energy efficiency. 18 ICE: Internal Combustion Engine 19 BEV: Battery-Electric Vehicles 20 PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles 21 CNG: Compressed Natural Gas 33

35 7.4. ELECTRICITY Demand BaU power demand foreseen in the simulator grows at 1% / year between 2010 and 2050, according to the following table. BaU power consumption Annual change % 1.8% -0.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 0.8% The following table presents the maximum potential of EE measures foreseen in the simulator. This potential is assumed as realistic as it already excludes the massification of non-mature expensive technologies, limits high paybacks, requires realistic adoption curves over time, etc. EE realistic potential [ktep] Residential Services Industrial Total ,155 1,309 1,442 1,546 1,595 For peak demand calculation, the current consumption profile (5,500 hours) is assumed Supply The following table presents the simulator s assumptions regarding working regimes (by 2050). Technology / Source of energy Working regime by 2050 [equivalent hours] Nuclear 7,000 Wind onshore 2,200 Wind offshore 3,500 Biomass and waste 6,500 Solar PV 22 1,600 Solar CSP 23 3,000 Geothermal 6,700 Ocean 3,000 CHP 4,810 Renewables (Solar PV) 1,573 Coal with CCS 24 6, PV: Photovoltaic 23 CSP: Concentrated Solar Power 24 Available from 2025 on (inclusive) 34

36 To determine the required installed capacity to meet peak demand, the simulator considers the following assumptions. Technology / Source of energy Availability factor in peak demand Hydroelectric 50% Nuclear 94% Wind onshore 6% Wind offshore 6% Biomass e waste 75% Solar PV 0% Solar CSP 25% Geothermal 75% Ocean 6% CHP 50% Renewable (Solar PV) 0% Coal 94% Natural gas 94% Fuel oil 94% Interconnection 60% Minimum reserve margin 110% By 2020, special regime installed power capacity is fixed in the simulator, according to PNAER revised, so that the user decisions only have effect post Type Technology Installed capacity by 2020 [MW] Wind onshore 5,298 Wind offshore 2 Biomass e waste 370 Centralized Solar PV 177 Solar CSP 50 Geothermal 30 Ocean 6 CHP 2,023 Distributed Renovável (Solar PV) 323 Other power sector assumptions: Fuel oil generation: zero output from 2015 on Coal generation (without CCS): 5 TWh by 2015 and zero output from 2020 on Interconnection capacity: 5000 MW by 2050 Hydro pumped consumption: ~3 TWh by 2020 evolving to ~7 TWh by

37 7.5. CHP AND HEAT The following table shows the average efficiencies assumed for each CHP technology (data for 2050). CHP Electricity Heat Total Fuel oil 29,0% 44,3% 73,3% Natural Gas 35,1% 46,3% 81,5% Biomass 20,0% 55,2% 75,2% CHP is divided into: Renewable CHP: keeps current share until 2050 (~30%) Non-renewable CHP: fuel oil disappears from the energy mix up to 2050, leaving only natural gas in the long term The following table shows the share of CHP by sector. CHP by sector 2050 Services and Agriculture 5% Industry 95% 7.6. DIFFICULTY LEVEL The difficulty level lies between 0% and 100%. The lowest level of difficulty is associated with all user options at level 1 while, in contrast, the highest difficulty level corresponds to all the selected options at level 4. The difficulty level reflects the difficulty of implementing the various energy options: Demand: behavioral changes, infrastructure and liquidity constraints Supply: environmental impacts, safety and licensing Emissions: technological availability and legal requirements In this sense, there are different difficulty weights for each of the simulator s questions according to the required level of behavioral change, public acceptance and technological maturity. 36

38 7.7. EMISSIONS GHG emissions (CO 2 equivalent) are calculated (nationally) by hydrocarbons consumed at the primary energy level, as presented in the following table. Hydrocarbons gco 2/kWh t Coal 308 Oil 250 Natural gas 184 The simulator assumes a pre-defined decreasing emissions trend (carbon intensity improvement), as presented in the following table. Emissions [MtonCO 2] CO 2 emissions (energy related) CO 2 emissions (non-energy related) Non CO 2 emissions TOTAL CCS is modeled as follows: CCS in the power sector: applied only to coal plants capturing 90% CO 2 emissions (still emitting therefore 10% of the coal carbon content) CCS for the industrial sector: applied only to industrial processes according to the following table Industrial processes [ktonco 2] Total GHG emissions CO 2 emissions ,664 6,262 6,.944 5, ,137 5,374 5,591 4,209 4,.732 4,747 4,764 4,.808 4,761 4,.623 4,068 3,360 37

39 7.8. COSTS The total cost of energy presented in the simulator results from a sum of: i) Cost of electricity (power levelized costs power generation) ii) Cost of energy and CCS (fuels import bill, CO 2 licenses and CCS) In this sense, the following items are not included in the total cost of energy: Domestic or company investments in energy efficiency measures Domestic or company investments in electrification, gasification or shift to biofuels Costs of power and natural gas transmission and distribution networks Costs of refineries, transportation and distribution of petroleum products and biofuels Investments in energy efficiency measures or fuel switching do not directly affect the cost paid for the energy, although they naturally impact the total cost incurred by users in terms of energy consumption. Having in mind a pre-determined demographical evolution, total costs of power and natural gas transmission and distribution networks are relatively stable for the various possible pathways, due to their essentially fixed nature. Thus, in comparative terms, these costs should not differ significantly among scenarios. Assuming that the strong investments made recently in Portugal in the oil value chain (refineries and supply network) have the capacity to meet current consumption plus the expected medium term growth, once more, in comparative terms, these costs should not differ significantly among scenarios Electricity The cost of electricity is computed by the product between the levelized costs of the various power technologies and the respective power generation. Levelized costs are computed based on the following key variables: Economic life: Asset lifetime CAPEX 25 : Investments costs FOM 26 : Fixed operation and maintenance costs VOM 27 : Variable operation and maintenance costs Working regimes: Equivalent working hours 25 CAPEX: CAPital EXpenditure 26 FOM: Fixed O&M 27 VOM: Variable O&M 38

40 The table below details the key variables for the various power technologies (data for 2050). Technology / Source of energy Economic life [Years] CAPEX [ 10/kW] FOM [ 10/kW] VOM [ 10/MWh] Hydroelectric 60 1, Nuclear 40 4, Wind onshore 25 1, Wind offshore 20 2, Biomass e waste 30 2, Solar PV Solar CSP 25 1, Geothermal 30 3, Ocean 20 3, CHP Renewables (Solar PV) 25 1, Coal (with CCS 28 ) 40 2, Natural gas Fuel oil Levelized costs are computed assuming a cost of capital of 8% Energy and CCS Oil, coal, natural gas and CO 2 prices by 2050 are defined by the user. The remaining raw materials costs and exchange rate, not configurable by the user, are as follows: Nuclear: 4 10 /MWh e by 2050 Biomass: 9 10 /MWh t by 2050 (30 10 /MWh e by 2050) Power imports: /MWh t by 2050 USD/EUR exchange rate: 1.3 by 2050 For the power sector, CCS cost is estimated through an additional CAPEX for coal power stations with CCS, which is balanced by a 90% CO 2 cost reduction (90% emissions capture with CCS). For the industrial sector, CCS 29 cost is estimated based on the national industrial mix. In this sense, the simulator considers /MWh in the medium term (2025) decreasing linearly to /MWh by The national energy bill, along with the other costs of electricity and energy, includes CO 2 costs (at the price level set by the user). 28 Coal power plants CAPEX without CCS is lower, around /kW 29 Comparative assessment of CO2 capture technologies for carbon-intensive industrial processes, Progress in Energy and Combustion Science 38 (2012) , Elsevier 39