Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord: Water Entitlements and Key Issues National and Balochistan Perspectives. Dr. Shahid Ahmad 1

Transcription

1 Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord: Water Entitlements and Key Issues National and Balochistan Perspectives Dr. Shahid Ahmad 1 1 Project Coordinator, TA-4560 (PAK), Asian Development Bank. 1

2 Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord: Water Entitlements and Key Issues National and Balochistan Perspectives Dr. Shahid Ahmad 2 1. Water Apportionment Accord water supplies due to variability in river flows were observed during the dispute period and even being witnessed today by the country. An inter-provincial agreement was essential to resolve the outstanding dispute of canal water entitlements, entitlements of future river supplies and distribution of surplus floodwater or additional supplies available from the construction of new storages Background of the Accord In 1991, an agreement to share waters of the Indus River System was occurred between the four provinces of Pakistan entitled Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord. It covers water entitlements both for the existing uses and for near-future waters for the four provinces of Pakistan. It also defines the water entitlements of the four provinces for the balance water available during the brief monsoon period (July to September). It is important to mention that no water entitlements have been sanctioned for the Islamabad Capital Territory and the federally administered Northern Areas. However, people of Northern Areas are using Indus waters in areas located in upper reaches of the Indus River system, which will affect the downstream flows in terms of quality and quantity. The Chief Ministers of the four provinces resolved the long outstanding dispute, which had ceased the water development in the country during late 70s and 80s. The recent extension of existing canals (Pet Feeder in Balochistan) and construction of new canals in Pakistan (the Kachhi canal in Balochistan, Thal canal in Punjab and Rainee canal in Sindh province) is because of the Water Apportionment Accord. Most of these projects were initiated in the current decade Purpose of the Water Accord Surface water and hydropower developments in the Indus basin after commissioning the Tarbela Dam, under the Indus Basin Project in 1977, were almost ceased due to lack of resolution of the inter-provincial water disputes. The country has witnessed long crisis of canal water supplies and hydropower generation before reaching any consensus. Load-shedding and irregular canal 2 Project Coordinator, Supporting Public Resource Management in Balochistan, TA-4560 (PAK), Asian Development Bank. Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord was signed in 1991 for the distribution of water of the Indus River System as Canal Water Entitlements between the four provinces. The important features of the Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord are that it: protects the existing uses of canal water in each of the province; and apportions the balance of river supplies, including flood surpluses and additional supplies from the future storages among the provinces The Water Accord The extract of the Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord signed during March 1991 by the Chief Ministers of the four provinces is reproduced as under: 1. There was an agreement that the issue relating to Apportionment of the Waters of the Indus River System should be settled as quickly as possible; 2. In the light of the accepted water distributional principles the following apportionment was agreed to (Table 1); Table 1. Accord water apportionment Province Apportioned Water (MAF) Kharif Rabi Total Punjab Sindh* NWFP (a) Balochistan (b) Civil Canals** * Including already sanctioned Urban and Industrial uses for Metropolitan Karachi. ** Unguaged Civil Canals above the rim stations in NWFP. 3. NWFP/Balochistan Projects which are under execution have been provided their authorised quota of water as existing uses; 2

3 4. Balance river supplies (including flood supplies and future storages) shall be distributed as given in Table 2; Table 2. Distribution of balance water Distribution of Balance Water (%) Punjab Sindh Balochistan NWFP Total Industrial and Urban Water supplies for Metropolitan city, for which there were sanctioned allocations will be accorded priority; 6. The need for storages, wherever feasible on the Indus and other rivers was admitted and recognised by the participants for planned future agricultural development; 7. The need for certain minimum escapage to sea, below Korti, to check sea intrusion was recognised. Sindh held the view, that the optimum level was 10 MAF, which was discussed at length, while other studies indicated lower/higher figures. It was, therefore, decided that further studies would be undertaken to establish the minimal escapage needs downstream Kotri. These studies were undertaken during the current decade by the previous government on all Pakistan basis including the below Kotri requirements; 8. There would be no restrictions on the provinces to undertake new projects within their agreed shares; 9. No restrictions are placed on small schemes not exceeding 5000 acres above elevation of 1200 ft; 10. No restrictions are placed on developing irrigation uses in the Kurram/Gomal/Kohat basins, so long as these do not adversely affect the existing uses on these rivers; 11. There are no restrictions on Balochistan, to develop the water resources of the Indus right bank tributaries, flowing through its area; 12. The requirement of LBOD will be met out of the flood supplies in accordance with the agreed sharing formula; 13. For the implementation of this accord, the need to establish an Indus River System Authority (IRSA) was recognised and accepted. It would have headquarters at Lahore and would have representation from all the four provinces. The headquarters were later on shifted to Islamabad; 14. a) The system-wise allocation will be worked out separately, on ten daily basis and will be attached with this agreement as part and parcel of it; b) The record of actual average system uses for the period , would form the guideline for developing a future regulation pattern. These ten daily uses would be adjusted prorata to correspond to the indicated seasonal allocations of the different canal systems and would form the basis for sharing shortages and surpluses on all Pakistan basis; c) The existing reservoirs would be operated with priority for the irrigation uses of the provinces; d) The provinces will have the freedom within their allocations to modify system-wise and period-wise uses; and e) All efforts would be made to avoid wastages. Any surpluses may be used by another province, but this would not establish any rights to such uses. This is one of the issues, which needs further analysis considering water as a finite and limiting resource Discussions on the Water Accord Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord allocated about 12 MAF of additional water to the four provinces for priority irrigation development. It also specified sharing percentages for the provinces out of balance river supplies for further development. As per explanations by the federal government, the Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord envisaged long-term surface water development in Pakistan, which should lead to ultimate canal head supplies of about 131 MAF. What is the sustainable level of canal water supplies looking at the variability in river flows and lack of adequate storage facility is a real question to be addressed? Surplus river water is available only between days during the flood season (July- September). Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord has also specified 10 daily allocations of various provincial projects throughout the year, which take into account the additional water allocations. To provide these additional water allocations during the non-flood period of the year, it is necessary to store the surplus water. These storages have to be developed in the concept of carry-over dams meant for transferring water of a wet year to a dry year. It is important to note that the current storages are being operated largely for transferring water of Kharif season to the Rabi season. No storage is available for carry-over purposes. 3

4 In the absence of new storage facilities, the provinces will be forced to share the shortages and in this scenario, it is expected that the largest suffering will be transferred on to the new irrigation projects or to the canals located at the tail-end of the system i.e. Khirther canal of the Balochistan province. Hence it is in the interest of all the provinces to encourage the development of water resources projects to increase the storage capacity for carry-over purposes because sustainable agricultural development requires sustained canal water supplies. The option available for building consensus among the provinces is that in the design of carryover dams no new canals are constructed and stored water is provided to the provinces as per agreed water entitlements and a transparent system of water regulation is established. This would require building IRSA as an effective institution of water regulation and control to ensure effective implementation of Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord by forging trust and rapport among the provinces. Inflows and outflows from dams be effectively measured through automatic instrumentation and ensure on-line transmission of real-time data to all provinces directly through radiotelemetry instead of data transfer by IRSA. This would avoid human handling in data measurement and transmission, which was the real cause of building mistrust between Punjab and Sindh provinces. 2. Resource Picture of the Indus Basin River System - Post Tarbela Scenario 2.1. Flows of Western Rivers The Indus, Kabul, Jehlum and Chenab are characterized as western rivers contributing to the Indus basin river system. Rim stations used for measurement of flows of western rivers are located at: a) Indus at Tarbela; b) Kabul at Attock; c) Jehlum at Mangla; and d) Chenab at Marala. Flows of western rivers were limited in the Rabi season because of limited glacier- and snow-melt and low rainfall during winter season. 2007), which was around 3% less than the prestorage period ( ), indicating impact of climate change more severe droughts. The lowest annual river flows were less than half of the highest river flows (Table 3). Bulk of the flow of western rivers was during the Kharif season, which was around five times the flow in the Rabi season. Thus, there is extreme seasonality between the Kharif and Rabi seasons flows (Table 3). Tarbela and Mangla dams were developed to reduce the seasonality by transferring stored water of Kharif season during the Rabi season. Table 3. Variability in flows of Western Rivers of Indus basin (post-storage period ) Probability 3 Rim-Station Inflows (MAF) (%) Kharif Rabi Annual Minimum Maximum Flows of Eastern Rivers The Ravi and Satluj are characterized as eastern rivers contributing to the Indus basin river system. The rim stations used for measurement of river flows of the eastern rivers are located at: a) Ravi at Baloki; and b) Satluj at Suleimanki. Flows of eastern rivers were extremely limited in the Rabi season because of the exclusive right of India on the waters of the eastern rivers as per Indus Water Treaty. The eastern rivers have provided 7 MAF of surface water in an average year (at 50% probability) during the post-storage period ( ), which was around 274% less than the pre-storage period, indicating the impact of Indus Water Treaty. Bulk of the flow of the eastern rivers was also during the Kharif season, which was around five times the flow in the Rabi season. Contribution of the eastern rivers to the annual mean flows of the Indus River system was about 4.9%. The The western rivers have provided 136 MAF of surface water in an average year (at 50% probability) during post-storage period ( The probability is presented as probability of being less. The probability of 10% means that there is only 10% chance of being less or 90% chance of being higher than the predicted value at that percentile. 4

5 contribution of eastern rivers reduced from 21.2 to 7.0 MAF in the post-storage era (Table 4). Table 4. Variability in flows of Eastern Rivers of Indus basin (post-storage period ). Probability Rim-Station Inflows (MAF) (%) Kharif Rabi Annual Minimum Maximum Total Flows of the Indus River System Total flows of both the western and eastern rivers were limited in the Rabi season largely because of limited glacier- and snow-melt and low rainfall during the winter season. The western and eastern rivers provided total flows of 143 MAF of surface water in an average year (at 50% probability) during the post-storage period ( ), which was around 11% less than the pre-storage period, indicating the impact of climate change (more severe droughts) and largely the Indus Water Treaty. Bulk of the river flow both from western and eastern rivers was during the Kharif season, which was around five times the flow in the Rabi season. The western rivers contribute around 95% of total annual river flows to the Indus basin in an average year. The lowest total annual flows both from western and eastern rivers were less than half (92 MAF) of the highest annual river flows (207 MAF; Table 5). Table 5. Variability in flows of Western and Eastern Rivers of Indus basin (post-storage period ). Rim-Station Annual Inflows (MAF) Probability Western Eastern Total (%) Rivers Rivers Minimum Maximum Variability in river flows is a major limitation in the development of run-of-river type irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin, especially to meet crop irrigation requirement during the low-flow period of the Rabi and early and late Kharif seasons and in the dry years. The recent drought was so severe that the annual river flows of the western rivers during were 91.2 MAF, which were even less than the historical minimum of 92.5 MAF since During the same period the mean annual flows of eastern rivers were reduced to less than 1.0 MAF. This has created a situation of water crises in the country and also deepens the inter-provincial water conflicts Flows to Arabian Sea (below Kotri) Annual variability of river flows below Kotri barrage has been very high. In the normal year (50% probability), the annual flow was reduced from 71.1 to 34.9 MAF in the post-tarbela period (Tables 6 and 7). Table 6. Variability in flows below Kotri Barrage in pre-tarbela period ( ). Probability (%) Flows Downstream Kotri Barrage (MAF) Kharif Rabi Annual Minimum % % % % % Maximum Table 7. Variability of flows below Kotri Barrage in post-tarbela period ( ). Probability (%) Flow Downstream Kotri Barrage (MAF) Kharif Rabi Annual Minimum % % % % % Maximum The percent reduction in annual flows in the dry years (10% probability) was higher than the normal years, where flows were reduced from 25.6 to 11.0 MAF in the post-tarbela period (the probability of dry year was one-out-of-five in the 5

6 pre-tarbela period). The percent reduction in annual flows in wet years (>50% probability) was relatively less than the normal and dry years (Ahmad 2000; WCD 2000; Tables 6 and 7). Rabi season flows in the normal year (50% probability) were reduced from 5.8 to 1.4 MAF in the post-tarbela. The effect was more pronounced in the dry years, where seasonal flows were even less than 0.4 MAF in one-out-of-four years. Reduction in seasonal flows was also observed during the wet years (>50% probability). In conclusion, the construction of Kotri barrage reduced the seasonal and annual flows below Kotri barrage due to the canal diversions. The seasonal and annual flows were further reduced during the post-mangla and post-tarbela periods due to further increases in the canal diversions at the Kotri barrage and at upstream commands. The canal diversions at Kotri barrage were increased from 4.4 to 8.8 MAF (representing 100% increase) during the post-tarbela period. The probability of dry years was doubled in the post-tarbela period, which is a serious concern for the downstream flows to maintain the delta eco-system the low-riparian ecosystems. season in the post-kotri and post-mangla period ( ). Zero flow days were marginally reduced to 14 years (61%) in the Kharif season and 22 years (96%) in the Rabi season in the post- Tarbela period ( ). In the Rabi season it was effectively the same at 96% compared to 100% (Ahmad 2000; WCD 2000). Thus, occurrence of zero flow days progressively increased following the commissioning of the Kotri and Guddu barrages and the Mangla dam in the Rabi season (Figure 1). In fact, the frequency of zero flow days in the Rabi season has a direct impact on the downstream ecosystem. In the post- Kotri period ( ), the maximum number of days with zero flows in the Rabi season was 10. This increased to 180 days in the post-kotri and post-mangla period ( ). The highest number of zero flow days recorded during post- Tarbela period was a slight reduction to 150 days, although even this represents 82% of the Rabi season. In the pre-kotri period there were no days with zero flows. In the post Kotri/Mangla periods there were on an average 33 days with zero flows in the Rabi season; and in the post-tarbela period there were 81 days (Ahmad 2000; WCD 2000). There is a need to establish minimum environmental flows below Kotri Barrage to ensure sustainability of the downstream ecosystems. IRSA should ensure that these minimum environmental flows are available during both the Rabi and Kharif seasons. The real issue is that both IRSA and the Sindh province accord higher priority for such flows from that of canal diversions in the dry years. This issue has to be resolved to ensure further development of storage reservoirs in the country Distribution of Days with Zero Flows below the Kotri Barrage A clearer picture emerges when looking at the extreme events when there was no flow below Kotri. Analysis was made of the number of days per season when flows below Kotri barrage were zero (Figure 1). In the pre-kotri period ( ), there was not a single day with a zero flow during both the Rabi and Kharif seasons. Zero flow days were observed during the post-kotri period ( ). One year (20%) in the Kharif season and four years (80%) in the Rabi season were identified as having zero flows. Occurrence of zero flow days increased to six years (75%) in the Kharif season and eight years (100%) in the Rabi Figure 1. Number of days per season with zero flows below Kotri Barrage (Ahmad 2000; WCD 2000) 3. Canal Supplies in Indus Basin The annual canal supplies during post-storage period ( ) indicated that variation in canal supplies is still due to the river flows even after commissioning the Mangla and Tarbela reservoirs (Figure 2). Both the Mangla and Tarbela reservoirs are being operated to transfer the stored water of the Kharif season to the Rabi season. This is needed to reduce variability in canal supplies during the Rabi season because the flows of Rabi season are almost one-fifth of the Kharif season. The probability of canal supplies indicated that during the post-storage period ( ) the annual canal supplies ranged between 79.6 to 6

7 111.1 MAF. The mean annual canal supplies (at 50% probability) are 99 MAF. Even after the commissioning of the Tarbela dam, the variability in river flows was a major factor contributing in variability of canal supplies Annual River Flows (MAF) Period (Years) Figure 2. Canal supplies in Indus basin (Basic Data Source: Water Resources Management Directorate, WAPDA). The Kharif season canal supplies varied between 57.1 to 74.7 MAF with mean of 64.5 MAF (50% probability). The lowest canal supplies were 12% less than the mean supplies. The Rabi season canal supplies varied between 21.5 to 40.7 MAF with mean of 35.0 MAF (50% probability). The lowest canal supplies were 39% less than the mean supplies (Table 8). Thus variation in Rabi season canal supplies is higher than the Kharif season. Table 8. Variability in canal supplies during post-tarbela period ( ). Probability Canal Supplies (MAF) (%) Kharif Rabi Annual Minimum % % % % % Maximum Balochistan Water Entitlements The Indus basin irrigation system of the province comprises of Patfeeder, Kirther, Uch, Faizabad and Manuthi canals which are fed from the Indus River as per provincial share authorized by the Water Apportionment Accord. Balochistan province has historic water share from the Indus river system. According to the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991, the share of Balochistan is presented as under: Perennial Supplies as per Accord = 3.87 MAF Share from Mangla dam raising = 0.36 MAF Total Perennial Allocation = 4.23 MAF Furthermore, the Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord revealed that the province of Balochistan has 12% share in floodwater and future development of water reservoirs in the country. Annual non-perennial canal water supplies authorized for Balochistan from the Indus River, as 12% of the 38.5 MAF of Indus River system floodwater supplies estimated by WAPDA in 1998, are around 4.62 MAF. The non-perennial water is available during flood years and in the brief monsoon season (July to September). 5. Current Use of Indus Water in Balochistan 5.1. Historical Canal Supplies The data of canal water supplies to Balochistan during the post-storage period ( ) is presented in Figure 3. The canal supplies were increased to 2 MAF during and then these increased to 3 MAF during Afterwards, these were almost stagnant or vary slightly. Annual Canal Supplies (MAF) Period (Years) Figure 3. Canal supplies to the Indus basin part of Balochistan (Basic Data Source: Water Resources Management Directorate, WAPDA) 5.2. Probability of Canal Supplies The probability data of canal supplies to Balochistan vary between 1.15 to 3.17 MAF. The highest canal supplies were almost three fold of the lowest canal supplies. There is 90% probability that canal supplies would be <3 MAF. This is a clear indicator that canal supplies to Balochistan 7

8 have much higher variability compared to the other provinces (Table 9). Table 9. Variability in canal supplies in Balochistan Indus Basin during Probability Canal Supplies (MAF) (%) Kharif Rabi Annual Minimum % % % % % Maximum Water Budget of Balochistan Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord provides water entitlements of 4.23 MAF of perennial surface water from the Indus River system to Balochistan. But due to limited canal infrastructure and capacities in Balochistan, around 3.05 MAF is being diverted to canals in the province: Patfeeder Canal Khirther Canal Uch Canal Manuthi Canal Khan Wah, Faizabad and Direct Outlets Total Current Utilization = 1.86 MAF = 0.86 MAF = 0.10 MAF = MAF = 0.18 MAF = MAF lack of adequate canal infrastructure or noncommissioning of the planned infrastructure, the province can not utilize their water entitlements fully. Table 10. Water Budget of Balochistan, Pakistan for the year Particular Available Water Resources Surface Water (Indus River perennial) Surface Water (Indus River nonperennial) Water (MAF) Total Available Water 8.85 Water Use Surface Water (Indus River perennial) Surface Water (Indus River nonperennial) 1.57 Total Water Use Balance Available Surface Water (Indus River perennial) Surface Water (Indus River nonperennial) 3.05 Total Balance Left Information Source: Halcrow Pakistan and Cameos study under ADB TA-4560 (PAK) 2007; Irrigation and Power Department, Balochistan 2006; ADB-PRM 2006). 6. Key Issues 6.1. National Perspective Canal Supplies and Water Accord Recently, two projects namely Extension of Patfeeder Canal and Construction of Kachhi Canal have been undertaken which together could utilize about MAF of balance allocated share as follows: Patfeeder Canal Remodelling & Extension Kachhi Canal Proposed Future Utilization = MAF = MAF = MAF From the foregoing, it is evident that Balochistan province is still in deficit of drawing MAF perennial flows against the allocated share of 4.23 MAF even after the proposed future utilization. In addition, 3.05 MAF of non-perennial flows will be un-utilized after the planned uses (Table 10). Till the commissioning of the Kachhi canal, the un-utilized amount of perennial flows will be 0.98 MAF. The province although has the water entitlements of using this water but due to the The major question is that whether the water disputes have been resolved between the provinces after the promulgation of Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord. The disputes on water are still prevailing among the provinces. The Sindh province has serious concerns with Punjab and Balochistan with the Sindh province regarding the sharing of water shortages. The average canal supplies during are around 98.2 MAF, whereas the mean supplies at 50% probability are 99 MAF. There is no difference between average and 50% probability level of canal supplies. Let us assume that mean is 99 MAF. The provinces expect canal supplies to the level of MAF given in the Accord. In fact, the Accord has apportioned 10 MAF higher than actual supplies based on the data used while developing the Accord of MAF. 4 estimated share of Balochistan after commissioning of the Mangla Raising Project 8

9 The key Issues related to canal supplies and water apportionment in the Indus basin are: The probability analysis of canal supplies during the post-storage period ( ) indicated that the highest canal water supplies of MAF is even less than the amount of water apportioned in the Accord of MAF. Considering the actual canal water supplies at the time of Water Apportionment Accord of MAF, the probability analysis indicated that there is 77% probability of having less than MAF. In other words, there is probability of one-out-of-four for having the canal supplies of or more, which was used while apportioning the water between provinces. The analysis indicated that provinces will be facing water shortages three-out-of-four years, receiving < MAF. The serious question to be addressed is that what the sustainable level of canal supplies is prior to the construction of carryover dams 94 MAF which is available three-out-of-four years. The real question to be addressed is the construction of carryover dams to transfer the water of a wet year to a dry year for expanding the dependable canal supplies beyond 94 MAF. The probability of dependable canal supplies of three-out-of-four years is necessary for having sustainable agriculture in the Indus basin to maintain the current cropping patterns and productivity. The current system of canal supplies and expanding the canal network is not going to be sustainable in the future due to climate change and reduced inflows from the eastern rivers, which are continuously declining. The time is coming when no flows will be available during the Rabi season from the eastern rivers. Similarly, the flows from the Kabul River will also be dependent on the development of irrigated agriculture in Afghanistan. This also indicates the need for having Water Treaty between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Rivers Right to Flow The rivers have a right to flow. Why it is so. Historically, civilizations developed along the rivers and around the water bodies. The most recent example is the section of the river between Ghazi and Brohta, where the major part of water in the dry season is diverted to the power channel to generate hydropower at Brohta. The Indus River historically has been flowing in the section of Ghazi-Brohta, but due to the Ghazi-Brohta project the right of the Indus River during the Rabi season to some-extent was adversely affected. Although, the country badly need generation of hydropower but that does not mean that river s right to flow is denied. Therefore, the need arise to develop an operational strategy to sustain the river morphology, river habitat and human population dependent on river flows and groundwater. Important thing to note is that recharge to groundwater was considerably reduced in the section of the river between Ghazi- Brohta. Therefore, a mitigation strategy is needed to address these issues, while continue generating hydropower in the Ghazi-Brohta hydropower project. Minimum Environmental Flows Minimum environmental flows for each river basin are essential to maintain the ecosystems. We should keep in mind that irrigation is an artificial way of providing water for agriculture and although it is crucial for the economic development but the target should be that in the process of developing irrigated agriculture the ecosystems are not degraded rather upgraded through operational and mitigation strategies. The recent example is the development of Gomal Zam dam in NWFP and Sabakzai dam in Balochistan. After the commissioning of these dams efforts be made to continuously assess the changes made in the river ecosystems especially the lower riparian in both the rivers. Therefore, all the river basins require sustaining the ecosystems in the process of developing irrigated agriculture. It is important to note that sustainability of the ecosystems is essential for sustaining the freshwater resources on longer term basis. The other issue is the minimum environmental flows below the Kotri Barrage to sustain the delta ecosystem of the Indus river basin. These minimum requirement of environmental flows are essential to manage the seawater intrusion and the delta ecosystem (flora and fauna i.e. mangroves and fisheries especially the prawns). One should not underestimate the value of delta ecosystem, as any major changes in the natural ecosystems would certainly have adverse effects. The mitigation strategy should include the operational aspects of allowing minimum environmental 9

10 flows below Kotri. IRSA with the support of WAPDA may develop and implement a plan to ensure minimum environmental flows below Kotri. This should not be left only for the Sindh province to ensure minimum flows below Kotri, because there are and will be temptations for diverting more and more water for agriculture. of a wet year can be transferred to a dry year, when system faces shortages and adversely affecting the irrigated agriculture in the country Balochistan Perspective Reduced Allocation to Balochistan in Rabi Role of IRSA The IRSA is responsible to assess the water availability and then allow releases from the reservoirs based on the indents of the provinces as per Water Accord. According to the estimates made by some of the agencies, it appears that during , the IRSA could not precisely predict the availability of water in the storage reservoirs. Normally the Mangla and Tarbela storage reservoirs reach to the dead level by the end of April, which happened during the second week of March The assessment procedures used by IRSA need refinement to have better operation of releases from the storage reservoirs. The water level in the storage reservoirs close to the dead level is a clear indication that refinement in procedures for assessment of inflows is essential. There is also a need to evaluate the reasons why such a situation arose in the current year, which is going to have serious impacts on wheat crop in the upper reaches of the Indus basin, if the rainfall during March is less than normal. Furthermore, it would also have impacts on the planting of cotton in the Sindh province which normally completed in April. IRSA being a federal institution in water sector should deal with the causes of issues of water availability and distribution rather than addressing the effects. IRSA may use its institutional platform to resolve the disputes rather than taking the conflicts between the provinces as the federal agenda. This does not mean that IRSA should not address the provincial issues rather the focus should be to plan ahead to address the issues. The current situation of water storage in reservoirs is a clear indication that until the carryover dams are available in the Indus basin system, the shortages in the dry years can not be addressed. The issue is that IRSA may develop a communication strategy for the construction of carryover dams to build consensus in the civil society. These dams in the Indus basin can provide carryover storage capacity where water In the Accord, total water apportioned between provinces is MAF including water allocation of 3 MAF to NWFP above the rim stations. Out of this 3.87 MAF has been allocated to Balochistan constituting 3.29% of the apportioned waters. Thus, Balochistan is the province having lowest allocation of water in the country. Leaving apart the lowest allocation of water to the province, analysis was made for the Rabi season allocations. Rabi season allocations are critical as out of the total annual water apportioned around 34% is available during the Rabi season and the rest during the Kharif season. The same percentage was not used for allocating Rabi water to the provinces. NWFP has the highest ratio of water allocated during Rabi (40%) followed by Punjab (33.7), Sindh (30.4) and Balochistan (26.4). This is one of the discrepancies in the Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord, which might be resolved while making future modifications in the Accord (Table 11). In fact, the percentages would have been in the reverse order if based on evapotranspiration the scientific way of allocating water. Table 11. Water Apportionment during Rabi as percent of Total Annual Allocation Province Rabi Total Rabi as % of Total Punjab Sindh* NWFP (a) Balochistan Total b) Civil Canals Basic Data Source: Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord, Ministry of Water and Power, Government of Pakistan. Lack of Adequate Irrigation Infrastructure Due to lack of adequate irrigation infrastructure, the province of Balochistan is not in a position to fully utilize its water entitlements both of perennial and non-perennial flows. For example, the province even after the commissioning of the Kachhi canal would be having MAF unutilized perennial surface waters. Thus, the water entitlements of Balochistan are being used 10

11 by any of the three provinces including the amount of 0.45 MAF designed perennial flow of water to Kachhi canal. In addition, around 3 MAF of floodwater during Kharif is also un-utilized. Although, the Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord (Clause 14e) allows other provinces to use water, if it is not being used by the respective province, but this Clause is not fair especially for the province like Balochistan, which still requires two more canals almost of the equal size of the Kachhi canal to fully utilize the perennial and non-perennial balance water available. It might take another decade or more and during that period water of Balochistan will be used by other provinces by default. Therefore modification in the Water Accord is needed allowing the province of Balochistan to sell its entitled waters till the time adequate irrigation infrastructure is available in the province. This demand is not strange as water markets exist in many countries and states. Therefore, provinces of Pakistan can also market their entitled waters. Rather this is the most effective way of utilizing the water judiciously. The spirit in the Clause 14e of the Accord is to use water efficiently. The Clause is reproduced as All efforts would be made to avoid wastages. Any surpluses may be used by another province, but this would not establish any rights to such uses. Sharing of Shortages by the Smaller Provinces Balochistan and NWFP are the smaller provinces having lower allocation of water as per Water Accord. The allocations of water to these provinces are 3.4 and 5.1%, respectively. Therefore, the issue which has to be raised with IRSA and Ministry of Water and Power is the sharing of shortages in the acute deficit years, when even the river flows are less than the average canal supplies i.e The flexibility with these two smaller provinces is much less than the Punjab and the Sindh provinces to manage the shortages in acute dry years. Therefore, these two provinces may be treated differently. Thus, there is a need to define the minimum flows needed by these two provinces to operate the canals within the design hydraulic regimes. Water Entitlements The water entitlements for Balochistan in the Water Accord are the most dependable water available for agriculture in the province. Therefore, priority must be given to the availability of water from the Indus basin. The water entitlements for the Khirther canal are around 0.86 MAF. The Khirther canal is receiving water from the NW Canal which offtakes from the Sukkur Barrage located in the Sindh province. Khirther canal is located at the tail of the NW Canal. The Irrigation and Power Department is of the opinion that the Khirther canal is not receiving the allocated amount of water at the head. The issue of water entitlement for the Khirther Canal has to be resolved between the Governments of Balochistan and Sindh provinces and IRSA may facilitate both the governments to address this issue on priority. The population of Jaffarabad and Naseerabad districts is being benefited from the Indus water system, whereas the major population of rural Balochistan is deprived from the waters of the Indus river system. The major issue is that how the innovative and modern concepts of water development and irrigation can be utilized for future development of irrigated agriculture in the province to utilize all the entitled waters to the province for the benefit of the larger segment of population of rural Balochistan. 7. Way Forward The recommended actions as way forward are presented separately for the national and Balochistan levels National Perspective Refinement in the Water Apportionment Accord to address the issues of: a) establishing the rights of provinces to auction the excess water within their water entitlements; b) building consensus regarding the environmental flows for various ecosystems including the minimum environmental flows below Kotri barrage to maintain the delta ecosystem; c) ensuring that allocations made for minimum environmental flows for the ecosystems are exclusively used for the purpose of environmental control and not diverted for other uses; d) evaluating the case for water needs of the federal area, if water entitlements are not provided, then right may be given to purchase water from the provinces. Similarly, there is a need to mention the water usage and entitlements for the Northern Areas. Important to note that there is already entitlement of 3 11

12 MAF for the areas of NWFP located above the rim stations. Same provision is needed for the Northern Areas, although the measurements of water for allocation between the four provinces start from the rim stations but for sustainable development of water usage in the Northern Areas clear cut water entitlements are required, otherwise indiscriminate developments in these areas may have impacts on the downstream uses. Fine-tuning of the procedures and methodology for the prediction of future flows and adjustment with provincial indents as per Water Accord is needed. This would require a transparent system of water measurement at the rim stations and at all the points needed to assess the availability of water. In addition, reliable methodology and procedures are needed for the prediction of water for a given season (Rabi or Kharif) so that better decision making is made for the sharing of shortages among the provinces. Thus, there is a need to implement the clause of the Water Accord for sharing of shortages between the provinces by developing standard operating procedures for the prediction of water, assessment of water availability and sharing of water shortages. Rights of river to flow and ecosystems rights for sustainability shall be clearly articulated in the Accord. Further development of water and hydro-power would affect the river s right to flow and right of ecosystems might be affected. There is also a need to develop standard operating procedures in the light of Accord which are followed while formulating future hydro-power and agricultural projects in the Indus basin. Forge participation of provinces to build trust in water measurement and management through developing transparent system of water measurement and transmission of real-time data to provinces leading towards building consensus for construction of carryover dams and maintaining river ecosystems including the delta ecosystems. IRSA in collaboration with WAPDA may develop a strategic plan for development and maintenance of real-time database and transmission of real-time data to provinces. The capacity of the WAPDA has to be enhanced for measurement of water and transmission of data. The data should include both quantity and quality of water as Pakistan s Water Resources are at Risk. Agricultural, civic and industrial effluents are being drained to freshwater systems Balochistan Perspective The Government of Balochistan may raise the issue of water entitlements with IRSA to modify the Clause 14e of the Water Accord so that unutilized water as per Accord may be auctioned by the respective provinces. This would create an environment where higher value will be assigned to water and Balochistan province will not be deprived from its right of utilizing the water entitlements merely due to the reason of lack of irrigation infrastructure. In fact, the federal government could not provide the desired resources as adequate number of projects were not prepared by WAPDA for further development of irrigation infrastructure in Balochistan. The modification in the Water Accord would result in creating water markets in the provinces and ultimately result in enhancing the water use efficiency. Because with this modification, any province can auction excess water to others leading towards building trust among provinces regarding the use of water. The IRSA may also be approached to increase the share of canal water during the Rabi season in-line with the percent allocation to other three provinces. Currently, Balochistan province is receiving the lowest percent of water (26.4%) during the Rabi season compared to other provinces, where other provinces are receiving 30 to 40% of their water entitlements during the Rabi season. This is one of the basic reasons of having lower cropping intensity in the Rabi season in Pat Feeder and Khirther canals, in addition to the waterlogging caused by the extensive cultivation of rice crop during the Kharif season. The water entitlements for the Balochistan province from the Indus river system must be considered in the concept of Haqbandi. The Haqbandi means that population of rural Balochistan has equal right on the waters of the Indus river system. It is the public-sector who concentrated development in few locations due to the limited concept of gravity-fed canals. The canal water development in the province is largely based on the concept of gravity-fed canals. As the province is still having unutilized water of around MAF (perennial and non-perennial), therefore, new command areas have to be developed to provide water to larger segment of the rural population using the integrated concept of gravity-fed and pumped canal systems. Furthermore, new canal development for Balochistan must be linked 12

13 with the use of drip and sprinkler irrigation where Sunken Canals can be constructed considering the experiences of the Nile Delta in Egypt and farmers can pump water using efficient irrigation systems based on the demand. Out of the non-perennial water allocated to Balochistan, around 3.05 MAF is still unutilized even after the commissioning of the Kachhi canal. This water is available only for days and it will be difficult to raise Kharif crops successfully, because water will be available normally after 15 th July which will delay the planting of Kharif crops. Even water is available for 90 days only short growing season crops like maize, sorghum and millets can be grown. It will be difficult to grow rice. Therefore, an innovative concept of water resource development may be developed to sustain farming and to recharge the groundwater. Thus, the concept of water storage reservoir and groundwater recharge may be integrated for developing future infrastructure for utilization of non-perennial water resources. This can be accomplished by evaluating the concept of creating large lakes where floodwater can be stored in low lying areas to develop a new man-made lake. The stored water may be provided to the new command areas throughout the cropping season. The stored water over a longer period would recharge the groundwater and farmers can abstract the groundwater through dugwells and tubewells. The lake may also be used for the production of fish and farmers institutions be established to raise fish as an enterprise. The Government of Balochistan may initiate systematic discussions with the Sindh province to resolve the issue of reduced diversion of water compared to the allocation for the Khirther Canal. IRSA may also be approached to play its role to sort out the conflict on water diversions in the Khirther Canal. The situation of water availability during the dry years in Balochistan would not improve because the smaller provinces like Balochistan and NWFP would suffer most in a dry year as their water entitlements are fraction compared to Punjab and Sindh provinces. Thus, Balochistan province may support the case of construction of carryover dams to transfer water of a wet year to a dry year. It is important to mention that Mangla and Tarbela reservoirs are being operated in a strategy where water of the Kharif season is being transferred to the Rabi season. No storage is available for transferring water of a wet year to a dry year. The is a Series of Issues, which will be prepared and circulated to the policy and decision makers in the province of Balochistan and in other provinces of the Country with an objective to synthesize and disseminate the studies outputs under the TA (PAK). The TA Project entitled Supporting the Public Resource Management in Balochistan is being implemented by the ADB with the Department of Irrigation and Power, Government of Balochistan under the Balochistan Resource Management Programme. The funding is being provided by the Royal Government of Netherlands. The Policy Briefings are also based on the research work done by other national and international institutions with an objective to get benefit of the work done elsewhere. The comments and suggestions can be sent at the following address: Project Coordinator, TA 4560 (PAK), Arid Zone Research Center, P.O.Box.63, Brewery Road, Quetta, Pakistan. dr_shahidahmad2001@yahoo.com Phone No / Fax: Websites: Reference: Ahmad, S Pakistan Water Apportionment Accord: Water Entitlements and Key Issues National and Balochistan Perspectives. Vol. (4), No. (4), TA-4560 (PAK), Quetta, Pakistan. The topic to be addressed in the next Issue of Policy Briefings is Conjunctive Water Use and Management for Minor Perennial Irrigation Schemes in Balochistan Key Issues and Revised Strategy for Investment. The topic includes; a) Study Background; b) Characterization of Minor Perennial Irrigation Schemes (MPIS); c) Performance of MPIS Schemes Focus Group Dialogues; d) Potential of Shallow Groundwater; e) Current State of Water Use and Management; e) Building Sustainable Strategy for Conjunctive Water Use and Management; f) Action Plan for Implementing the Strategy; and g) Way Forward. 13