Materials scarcity: a sobering perspective

Transcription

1 Materials scarcity: a sobering perspective TMCE, Ancona, Italy, April 12, 2010 Dr. A.M. Diederen, MEngSci andre.diederen@tno.nl TNO Defence, Security and Safety Physical Protection & Survivability Rijswijk, The Netherlands Materials scarcity is now on the agenda 2

2 Just to set the tone: Too late for crisis prevention, focus on adaptation Weren t we warned? 1972: 2004: Inertia is not just a law of physics Hope for the best, prepare for the rest 3 Standard run according to world model of Limits to Growth (1972) 4

3 Comparison between Limits to growth scenarios and observed data 5 Source: Growing within limits, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, October 2009 Materials scarcity Raw materials can indeed become scarce in a problematically short timeframe Elements of course do not disappear, but what does disappear at an accelerating rate are the useful higher concentrations Conventional measures neglect the required timeliness together with the required scalesize 6

4 What matters is productionrate Production quantity Exponential growth A B Most important limits: - depletion of resources of higher quality and with better accessibility - energy scarcity - lack of (real) capital Time 7 Energy scarcity probability? probability? Source: The Olduvai Theory, Richard C. Duncan, 1989 and

5 Embedded energy in materials Source: Michael F. Ashby, Materials and the environment Eco-informed material choice, Embedded water in materials Source: Michael F. Ashby, Materials and the environment Eco-informed material choice,

6 Water scarcity 2,5% is fresh, from which 2/3 rds are frozen water air Photo: Adam Nieman (2004 or earlier) 11 Elements 0.1% by mass of the Earth s crust: the bulk is out of reach Remaining relevant resources of aluminium, iron, silicon, magnesium, titanium,.. extremely energy-intensive to extract Source: Exploring the resource base by Brian J. Skinner, Yale University,

7 Elements < 0.1% by mass of the Earth s crust: the bulk is out of reach Remaining relevant resources of other minerals rare : Cu, Sn, Ni, Sb, Ag,. trace : Pt, In, Se, Ga,. Extremely energy intensive to extract Source: Exploring the resource base by Brian J. Skinner, Yale University, The Earth s crust is so big is true and at the same time irrelevant See next slide out of reach due to energy scarcity 14

8 Exploration of major mineral deposits and the Law of diminishing returns low expectations of yet to be discovered major deposits, Raw Materials Group 15 Lower ore grades and less favourable locations much more energy needed for concentration example: copper copper ore grade the production of 1 ton of copper is associated with 250 tons of solid waste (Monash University, 2007) 16

9 In the USA primary production of most US peak production metals peaked before the 1980s Ag Mn Bauxite Hg Sb Sr As Sn Iron ore Li W Cr Co Nb* Ta* Ti conc In Mg comp Cd Zn Pb Th Ga Si Al Be Mo Ba Ge V Hf REM Zr Re Bi* Ni Cu Au Source: Chris Clugston, Continuously less and less, October Europe and the USA have already depleted a significant part of their useful resources Source: Magnus Ericsson (Raw Materials Group), The Hague, March 29,

10 Best case scenario: globally primary production of most metals will peak before 2025 Already scarce: silver and gold ( canary in the coal mine ) a large number of metals required for the green revolution : the platinum group (Pt, Pd, Rh, Ru, Ir, Os) the rare earth metals (La, Nd, Sm, Tb, ) various metals which are being produced as by-products in low quantities: Ga, Ge, In, Te, Next: tin, zinc and lead + As, Ba, Bi, Cd, Li, Nb, Sb, Ta, W, Zr, When copper and nickel peak, also Co en Mo will peak (before 2035) Non-linear distribution across the globe regional shortages well before global shortages! 19 What does best case mean? Mild energy scarcity scenario Mild direct feedbacks and no indirect feedbacks, meaning a graceful degradation instead of a step-wise collapse Interferences with water scarcity and food scarcity will make materials scarcity even worse Not included are disruptive effects from things like a nasty pandemic, a major natural disaster or large scale armed conflicts 20

11 Consequences of materials scarcity Strong volatility of cost (see next slides) Cost hard to bear (both in inflation and deflation scenario) Supply disruptions (exportquotas and exportstops) Metals scarcity and energy scarcity reinforce one another! Transition towards sustainable economy is not feasible w.r.t. timeliness and scale without extreme measures Direct threat to our prosperity Scarcity often leads to conflict high risk of instability 21 High price volatility prior to current crisis (1 from 2) 22

12 High price volatility prior to current crisis (2 from 2) 23 Wat does this mean (globally)? Globally we ll loose, regionally there will be winners Access to resources: by owning them by buying them (with real purchasing power) by force 24

13 Technology softens the consequences, don t expect miracles Timeliness? (think in decades, not years) Economic scaleability? Are we making the right choices? Technology has to abide with the laws of thermodynamics 25 Solution framework with intrinsic benefits, applicable to energy as well as metals 1. Use less (involves human behaviour and managed austerity ) 2. Longer life 3. Re-use and recycle 4. Substitute H C N O P S Cl non-metal elements 5. Product and Na Mg Al Si process K Ca Fe elements of hope (re)design 6. Buffers Ti Cr Mn Cu B F Ar Br critical elements frugal elements Li Be Sc V Co Ni Zn Ga Source: A.M. Diederen, Metal minerals scarcity: a call for managed austerity and the elements of hope, March 10, 2009 Ge As Sr Y Zr Nb Mo PGM Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te Ba REM Ta W Re Au Hg Tl Pb Bi 26

14 The Elements of Hope substitution H C N O P S Cl non-metal elements Na Mg Al Si K Ca Fe Ti Cr Mn Cu elements of hope B F Ar Br critical elements frugal elements Li Be Sc V Co Ni Zn Ga Ge As Sr Y Zr Nb Mo PGM Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te Ba REM Ta W Re Au Hg Tl Pb Bi H C N O Na Mg Al Si P S Cl K Ca Fe Source: Dr. A.M. Diederen, Metal minerals scarcity: a call for managed austerity and the elements of hope, March 10, 2009, published at TheOilDrum.com and hcss.nl the green elements are macronutrients 27 Use existing knowledge and experience from a less abundant era example: low alloy steel from the 1930s

15 Mother Nature optimizes, mankind maximizes Shell of the red abalone 29 Biomimicry using titanium and aluminium (stops high velocity fragment) Source: University of California, San Diego The huge pitfall of suboptimization save the giraffes well intended actions can have unintended consequences 30

16 De-materialisation using thin film layers and nanotechnology? semiconductor & nanomaterial manufacturing: 1, ,000 MJ/kg conventional manufacturing: 1-10 MJ/kg 31 Source: Gutowski et al, Thermodynamic analysis of resources used in manufacturing processes, 2009 Watch out for context dropping 32

17 Leaving out essential constraints Scientific American, November 2009 false sense of security! replace ALL fossil fuels by 2030 using: 490,000 1MW tidal turbines 5, MW geothermal plants 900 1,300MW hydroelectric plants 3,800,000 5MW wind turbines 720, MW wave converters 1,700,000, MW rooftop photovoltaic systems 49, MW concentrated solar power plants 40, MW photovoltaic power plants 33 The trap of complexity worship and perceived obsolescence 34

18 How exactly do you define sustainable or green? metals production in China 35 Roadmap towards sustainability? Measure of performance energy consumption per capita like 1960s/1970s Product lifetime increase 50% Recycling overall 50% Product lifetime doubled or tripled requires managed austerity and design philosophy Recycling overall 90% energy consumption per capita like 1950s/1960s 36

19 A genuine challenge! Measure of performance energy consumption per capita like 1960s/1970s Product lifetime increase 50% Recycling overall 50% Product lifetime doubled or tripled requires managed austerity and design philosophy Recycling overall 90% energy consumption per capita like 1950s/1960s 37