CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE FOR ALASKA

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1 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE FOR ALASKA AMIT ARMSTRONG, PH.D. P.E., FHWA WFLHD SUSAN LAW, FHWA WFLHD MICHAEL FLOOD, AICP, PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF SEPTEMBER 17, 2014

2 BACKGROUND Project Funded by FHWA Climate Change Adaptation Pilot Program Project Partners Alaska DOT&PF National Park Service National Forest Service US Fish & Wildlife Service Bureau of Land Management Project Team FHWA-Western Federal Lands Parsons Brinckerhoff Alaska University Transportation Center

3 THE SCALE

4 THE INFRASTRUCTURE

5 ALASKA CHANGE IS HERE ALREADY! Temperatures Increases Permafrost Thawing Affecting Infrastructure Support Increasing Risk of Landslides Diminishing Sea Ice and Increasing Coastal Erosion Increase in Freeze-Thaw Cycles Precipitation Changes Increases in Heavy Rainfall Events Combined Effect on Glacial Run-Off and Ice Break-Up Stream migration and debris effects Possible Contributing Effect on Permafrost Thawing

6 ALASKA EXPECTED FUTURE CHANGES

7 ALASKA EXPECTED FUTURE CHANGES

8 FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGE

9 MAP OF ALL FLMA REPORTED AT RISK ASSETS

10 FLMA EXAMPLE ISSUES NOTED IN ALASKA Permafrost Thaw Wrangell-St. Elias Visitor Center Parking Lot (NPS) Inigok Aircraft Ramp / National Petroleum Reserve (BLM) Precipitation Effects Kantishna Airstrip Parking Area (NPS) Nome Creek Road / White Mountain National Recreation Area (BLM) Landslide/Other Russian River Campground Access Road (USFS) Denali Park Road (NPS) Marine Access Pt Agassiz Salt Water Access (Glacial Rebound) access need (USFS)

11 FOCUS TOWARD SOLUTIONS Agency representatives know and understand existing and potential future risks. They would like to have a process which helps them make the case for appropriate decisions.

12 GETTING TO SOLUTIONS Developing a Procedure for Decision-Making Forward Looking Recognizes Existing Dynamic Conditions and Also Future Uncertainty Incorporates Estimated Whole Life Infrastructure Costs Includes Broader Costs and Benefits Beyond Facility Specifics Recognizes the Special Case of FLMA Lands &How Decisions Are Made Guides Project Decision-Making Analysis Prepares Material to Consider for Broader View of FLMA Priorities

13 TESTING SOLUTION FRAMEWORK Identify Various Asset/Stressor Combinations Conduct Engineering Analyses on Case Studies Full site-specific application of 11-step adaptation analysis process Includes benefit/cost analyses Document Finding and Expected Outcomes More informed decision-making on projects Considerations of near- and mid-term maintenance costs Considerations of adaptive engineering methods

14 SELECTED CASE STUDIES Represent Diversity of asset-stressor combinations Availability of relevant data for the specific case study sites Ability to obtain climate data related to the specified stressor A reasonable level of engineering analysis required Site Agency Affected Asset Stressor MP 9-Dalton Highway AKDOT&PF Roadway Permafrost Kivalina Airport AKDOT&PF Airport Route AK 1 or Route AK 9, Kenai Peninsula McCarthy Road, Wrangell- Saint Elias National Park & Preserve MP 37 Denali Park Road, Denali National Park Loss of sea ice/ sea level rise AKDOT&PF Roadway Precipitation NPS NPS Culvert (at Jack Creek) Roadway Precipitation Slope stability/ landslide

15 DECISION-MAKING FRAMEWORK

SOLUTIONS DISCUSSED DENALI Monitor and close road as needed Stabilize top of slide Expensive and would require infringement into protected wilderness area Realign road onto cleared debris area Soil

16 SOLUTIONS DISCUSSED DENALI Monitor and close road as needed Stabilize top of slide Expensive and would require infringement into protected wilderness area Realign road onto cleared debris area Soil can not currently support road Relocate road Expensive to construct Could require an act of Congress. Interest in keeping the road on its current alignment due to wilderness and historic preservation regulations.

PROJECT OUTCOME DECISION FRAMEWORK Will Be Applicable in FLMAs Conduct Engineering Analyses on Case Studies Full site-specific application of 11-step adaptation analysis process Includes

17 PROJECT OUTCOME DECISION FRAMEWORK Will Be Applicable in FLMAs Conduct Engineering Analyses on Case Studies Full site-specific application of 11-step adaptation analysis process Includes benefit/cost analyses Document Finding and Expected Outcomes More informed decision-making on projects Considerations of near- and mid-term maintenance costs Considerations of adaptive engineering methods

18 QUESTIONS? Amit Armstrong, Ph.D., P.E. Manager, Innovation & Technology Deployment Program Western Federal Lands Highway Division