Case Analysis of the ZC Company s AS Power Project Investment Decision-Making

Transcription

1 Amerca Joural of Idustral ad Busess Maagemet, 205, 5, Publshed Ole November 205 ScRes. Case Aalyss of the ZC Compay s AS Power Proect Ivestmet Decso-Makg Ja-Fe Leg, Qu Zhag, Xag-Na Wag Busess School of Hoha Uversty, Nag, Cha Receved 29 September 205; accepted 8 November 205; publshed November 205 Copyrght 205 by authors ad Scetfc Research Publshg Ic. Ths work s lcesed uder the Creatve Commos Attrbuto Iteratoal Lcese (CC BY). Abstract Frst, combed wth relevat theores of moder vestmet decso-makg, ths paper took AS power egeerg proect of ZC Compay for stace, aalyzed obectve fucto of power egeerg vestmet structure ZC Compay. Secod, ths paper aalyzed vestmet decsomakg structure of AS power egeerg proect ZC Compay, ad obtaed specfc results of vestmet decso-makg, ad the related results were verfed. Through aalyss ad explorato, ths paper has a scetfc mpact o ZC Compay for the AS power proect vestmet, whle t s hoped that t ca play a role electrc power egeerg proects of other compaes Cha. So t ca better promote the developmet of electrcal egeerg vestmet electrcal dustry. Keywords Ivestmet Decso, Beeft, Electrcal Egeerg, Rsk, Ivestmet Structure. The Itroducto I recet years, wth the cotued developmet of wester ecoomy, the electrcty cosumpto s cotually growg across the coutry, the atoal level tmely puts forward the grad blueprt of restart the slk road, our coutry electrc power system wll cotue to expad uceasgly the future ad the power market demad creases uceasgly, thus creatg the good prospects of electrc power proect vestmet. But due to the costat trasformato of the ecoomc system, ad compettve power of related eterprses, especally for ew eergy polcy clato ad support, t leads the tradtoal electrc power eterprse s vestmet to face a lot of challeges ad pressures from the state, socety, market ad so o. Thus electrc power eterprses should cosder varous fluecg factors to optmze vestmet to acheve put costs ad output beefts. Also How to cte ths paper: Leg, J.-F., Zhag, Q. ad Wag, X.-N. (205) Case Aalyss of the ZC Compay s AS Power Proect Ivestmet Decso-Makg. Amerca Joural of Idustral ad Busess Maagemet, 5,

2 through scetfc choosg vestmet obects ad effectve use vestmet decso to make vestmet beeft ad rsk maagemet of the power egeerg proect equlbrum, we ca mprove the electrc power compay the overall market compettveess ad promote the sustaable developmet of the compay. The AS power proect s the tradtoal vestmet proect of ZC Compay, maly cludg vestmet of thermal power, mateace ad testg & trag. These vestmets are vtal to the developmet of compay, especally the electrcal eterprses. So ths paper takes AS power egeerg proect of ZC Compay for stace, from the agle of facal maagemet ad research, aalyzes the AS power egeerg proect vestmet structure, ad expouds sgfcace about the vestmet structure budget pla for AS electrc power proect, tryg to provde ew deas for smlar electrc power eterprse proect vestmet. Lterature Revew There are may studes o proect vestmet structure decso-makg at home ad abroad. Che (2008) [] proposed that domestc eterprse vestmet proect decsos eeded a comprehesve study from the eterprse overall strategy, product market feasblty, techcal feasblty, proect feasblty ad facal feasblty aalyss etc. Ross (978) [2] poted out that the vestmet opportuty of proect rsk could be cosdered as aother optos real optos. Meg (20) [3] establshed the power exteso proect evaluato dex system by ecoomc evaluato ad rsk aalyss of the electrc exteso proect. Wag (2007) [4] put forward that the compay should cotrol possble rsks from the agle of tme ad scale whe makg vestmet decso. Ja (2008) [5] chaged the power proect decso-makg system by usg AHP, made the decso result more scetfc by quatfyg research problem. Lu Ya ad Zhag We (2007) took use of the theory of vestmet portfolo to solve the assgmet problem of tradtoal power proect. I order to reduce the rsk ad guaratee recyclg, they dscussed prelmarly the vestmet portfolo ssues of electrc power proect, through the establshmet of the mathematcal model to determe the vestmet shares dfferet electrc power proects. To sum up, the fluece factors of proect vestmet are umerous, but these studes are mostly lmted to theoretcal aspects, rarely o the actual case. So ths paper aalyses the specfc proect vestmet decsomakg, hopg that t ca play a role other eterprses. 2. Proect Backgroud ad Geeral Stuato 2.. ZC Compay s Backgroud ad a Prelmary Assumpto of AS Power Proects ZC Compay short for Cha Huada Corporato, ad s the state-owed lsted compaes, oe of the power geerato eterprses Cha. The headquarters s located Beg. ZC Compay s ma busess clude all kds of electrc power producto, the heat producto ad supply system, the developmet of oe-tme eergy relevat to electrc power, research ad developmet ad maufacture of power system equpmet, egeerg costructo, research ad developmet techology provdes, etc. It s the largest power egeerg system tegrato servce provders all over the world, the compay has a complete power egeerg dustry cha, ad depedet tellectual property (power producto techology) reached teratoal advaced level. The teratoal market share the world frst for may years, proects more tha 60 coutres aroud the world. For a log tme, orth Cha area s the ma supply of ZC Compay electrc power producto. Wth the cotuous mprovemet of the rego s ecoomc level, electrcty demad s also rasg, especally the peak perod, electrcty demad obvously greater tha supply. order to effectvely allevate the stuato, after the board of drectors agree, ZC Compay vestmet departmet take vestgato ad research for AS power egeerg proect, made prelmary feasblty study report of the AS power egeerg proect, ad through the relevat experts revew. AS power egeerg proect s a tradtoal vestmet proect of ZC Compay, the costructo goal of the proect clude thermal power developmet, desg, vestmet, costructo maagemet, etc., at the same tme t also egaged some mateace, testg, electrc power trag ad cosultg servces, whch s related to thermal power. AS power proect started Jauary 206, the vestmet fud s 20 mllo RMB, ad the vestmet codtos are show Table Ivestmet Structure Optmzato Obectve Fucto Aalyss of ZC Compay Electrc Power Egeerg Proect From the three aspects of the effcecy, relablty ad expasblty to determe power egeerg vestmet 64

3 Table. ZC Compay AS power proect vestmet codtos table. Ivestmet fud The feld of vestmet The method of decso makg Decso-makg way The source of the decso 20 mllo RMB Thermal power, mateace, testg ad trag The optmzato model for vestmet decso Scheme comparso O the bass of proft maxmzato, rsk mmzato of the ut of decso-makg structure of ZC Compay, because the mplemetato of ZC Compay power egeerg s focus o these three aspects. The goal of Power egeerg proect vestmet decso aalyss s all of the selected three aspects of subectve utlty value maxmum. So aalyze electrc power proect vestmet decso-makg, s to covert multple obectve decso, at the same tme uder the codto of captal, proect costrats, balace ad optmze the specal pla for dfferet maagemet apartmet ZC Compay Power Egeerg Effcecy Maxmzato The bggest goal that ZC Compay vestmet the costructo of power egeerg s to make profts, so the proect vestmet structure model should be a certa costrat codtos to maxmze ecoomc beefts. The ecoomc beefts maxmzato of power egeerg ca be expressed as subectve utlty evaluato maxmzato of selected proect ecoomc profts. If AS egeerg vestmet proect have N subproects, the lbrary of I proect vestmet have MI tem, maxmze ecoomc beefts s expressed by the followg formula: m Max A= E X = = A s the goal solvg of formula, whch s the geeral proft value of all cosdered tems. A s sgle tem of geeral proft, E s expected retur rate each tem, X express each tem vestmet proporto (the same below) Relablty Maxmzato of ZC Compay Power Egeerg Relablty s a mportat goal of ZC Compay power egeerg mplemetato, so the power egeerg proect vestmet structure model s to maxmze relablty uder certa costrats. The the obectve fucto ca be expressed the followg formula: m Max B = R X = = Developmet Maxmzato of ZC Compay Power Egeerg For ZC Compay power egeerg, proect developmet dexes s also very mportat, the proect developmet dcators plays a sgfcat role sustaable developmet of the eterprse, ad thus t also become a mportat goal of ZC Compay power egeerg vestmet. For ZC Compay power egeerg, the obectve fucto ca be sad wth the followg formula: m Max C = D X = = The C s goal soluto of formula, whch s developmetal proft value of each cosdered tem, ad C s developmetal proft value of each tem. Through the comprehesve aalyss o three dcators subectve utlty evaluato result of the ZC Compay power egeerg, whch obtaed respectvely three obectve fucto of ZC Compay power egeerg proect vestmet. Therefore, ZC Compay power proect vestmet decso-makg s through the relevat formula, dex to fd out the comprehesve beeft maxmzato of three obectve fuctos of the ZC Compay power egeerg. 642

4 2.3. The Costrat of ZC Compay Power Egeerg Proect Ivestmet Structure The Costrat Relato amog ZC Compay Power Egeerg Proects As the proect the lbrary of ZC Compay electrc power egeerg costructo proect volves may areas, ad uder every feld has umerous proects. So there are may lks ad costrats amog proects the alteratve proect vestmet lbrary. See from ZC Compay electrc power egeerg the past, there are maly the followg costrats: Frst: Proect subordate costrats Whe portfolo aalyze o vestmet proect the alteratve lbrary of ZC Compay electrc power proect, subordate costrats relatoshp betwee proects should be cosdered. Specfcally, proect subordate costrats s maly vew of the depedet relatoshp betwee the varous proects, amely whe bg frastructure vestmet s chose, that s assocated wth the relatvely small sze of the frastructure vestmet s possble. If alteratve proect J ad I have costrats, ad the oly whe the J proect s selected, the I proect ca be selected. Namely, X =, X = or X = 0, but f the X = 0, X = 0, these depedet costrats wth the formula ca be expressed as: X X 0, X Secod: Exclusve proect costrats I vestmet decso aalyss, part of proect optos ca oly choose, the proect betwee dfferet admstratve departmets exst the exclusve costrat relato. If alteratve proect J ad I s costra relato, the llustrate J ad I wll ot be able to exst at the same tme, t ca be expressed as wth formula: X + X, X Thrd: Proect complemetary costrats Complemetary costrat relato betwee the proects ma show that whe a proect vests, ad aother proect would be vested at the same tme. Whe a proect wthout vestg requres aother proect also go offle. Use the formula ca be expressed as: X X = 0, X Captal Costrats betwee ZC Compay Electrc Power Egeerg Proects I the process of ZC Compay electrc power proect vestmet decso-makg, there are may proects the optoal lbrares, but because of the restrctos of power egeerg vestmet quota, oly part of proects the lbrares ca be performed, the mportat premse of vestmet decso-makg s that make sure all of the moey must ot be greater tha vestmet amout of the proect. Whe the total vestmet budget of proect was determed, f ust accordg to every tem proft the proect optoal lbrares to decde, t s easer to cause mbalace that some proect expedture over budget whle some proect vestmet too small, causg the actual vestmet do ot agree wth the target. So terms of captal, ot oly cotrol total amout of vestmet, also cotrol each proect vestmet amout. Frst of all, cotrol total amout of all the proect vestmet, whch ot exceed aual vestmet pla. If the proect vestmet s dvded to N tems, subproects I have MI tems ts lbrary, the tem proft value respectvely s I I MI, total captal costrat relato of ZC Compay power egeerg vestmet ca be expressed as: m = = I X I Secodly, all areas of proect vestmet have upper lmt ad lower lmt, the I th vestmet feld of ZC Compay power egeerg has MI tems, each proect vestmet quota respectvely s I I MI, the I th costrat relato ca be expressed as: m = I X I 2.4. Costrat Codtos of ZC Compay AS Power Egeerg Proect I accordace wth the relevat provsos, ZC Compay put forward costrats of each proect accordg to 643

5 the developmet goals ad the aual total vestmet amout, as show Table 2: Idex costrats aalyss: overall vestmet quota of the fve maor costructo proects Table 2 should be less tha 20 mllo. But o matter from upper or lower lmt costrats, the overall vestmet quota of the fve maor costructo proects are beyod the pla vestmet quota, so order to guaratee the smooth mplemetato of vestmet, ot all the proects are wth the year. 3. Ivestmet Model Solve of ZC Compay AS Power Proect 3.. Set up Ivestmet Structure Model of ZC Compay Power Egeerg Proect It ca be see from the above aalyss, based o the comprehesve cosderato of ecoomy, relablty ad developmet, to set up vestmet structure model of ZC Compay power egeerg proect. Through comprehesve cosderato of three aspects, makg vestmet structure model of ZC Compay power egeerg proect vestmet ca brg comprehesve beeft maxmzato. At the same tme, uder the codto of fxed vestmet structure, balace vestmet dfferet areas, ad gve full cosderato o depedet, exclusve ad complemetary costrats betwee every feld proects. I the mult-obectve decso-makg model, o matter use what kd of soluto, t s ulkely to make all of g vestmet obectves optmzg, the most practcal ad effectve method s fltered accordg to the mportace of dfferet vestmet obectves, so as to acheve the balace of the vestmet obectves, to get a relatvely effectve optmzato scheme. For calculatg vestmet structure of ZC Compay power egeerg proect, adopt the smplfed method, make λ = ( λ, λ2, λ3,, λ ) as each target weghted coeffcet of power egeerg vestmet structure ZC Compay, ad = λ =, the may decso problems ca be coverted to sgle target decso-makg to pla ad solve. Accordg to the weghted coeffcet to trasform ecoomy, relablty ad expasblty, t ca get comprehesve beeft fucto of proect vestmet structure: Max M = λ x E+ λ x D+ λ x R 2 3 I ths fucto, M s the obectve fucto of the model, o behalf of the total beeft of selected proects, amely the selected proect s cotrbuto to the ZC Compay power egeerg. Ultmate goal of ZC Compay electrc power proect vestmet s to acheve comprehesve beeft maxmzato, that s to say, the pla wth maxmum M value s the optmal scheme of electrc power vestmet, cludg E represets the overall ecoomc beefts subectve utlty value of the chose proect, R represets the profts of relablty, D represets developmetal profts cosdered, λ (x), λ 2 (x), λ 3 (x) shows the each target weghted coeffcet the process of proect decso-makg. Based o the above aalyss we ca draw ZC Compay beeft fuctos of the vestmet structure ZC Compay electrc power egeerg proect ad the costrat relatoshp betwee the proects ad captals, Table 2. Costrat codtos of ZC Compay AS power proect. Idex costrats Idex vestmet upper lmt costrats Lower lmt dex vestmet costrats Bgger vestmet frastructure 7900 Bgger vestmet frastructure 7500 small sze of the vestmet frastructure 900 small sze of the vestmet frastructure 500 The vestmet of producto ad techcal ovato 2000 The vestmet of producto ad techcal ovato Sporadc purchase vestmets 760 Sporadc purchase vestmets 750 Iformato techology vestmet 440 Iformato techology vestmet 450 Total vestmet captal: less tha 20 mllo The small sze frastructure vestmet less tha 7% the total vestmet captal Sporadc purchase vestmets less tha 8% total vestmet captal Oly frastructure vestmet ole, Sporadc purchase vestmets ole

6 set up followg power egeerg proect vestmet structure: Max M = λ( x) E+ λ2( x) D+ λ3( x) R m I X I = = m I X I = X + X X X 0 X X = 0 X = 0或 3.2. The Determato of the Usual Weght of ZC Compay AS Power Egeerg Proect Method of AHP s ofte used to determe the usual weght of AS power egeerg proect. But due to complcated calculato process of method of AHP, ad the heavy fluece of the md, so cotrast, f take use of method of FAHP [6], t s more accurately to determe the usual weght of proect vestmet. Method of FAHP geerally doe through the followg three steps: The frst step: Costruct the fuzzy complemetary matrx [7]. Power proect costructo should strctly accordace wth the stadards ad goal of electrc power egeerg costructo Cha, to determe the mportace of each proect vestmet, accordg to the mportace of the AS electrc power proect to set up followg the fuzzy complemetary matrx: R = The secod step: costructs the fuzzy cosstet matrx, trasformed accordg to the followg formula: r r r = + 0.5( r = rk ( =, 2,, ) 2 k = Accordg to the above formula, trasformed the fuzzy complemetary matrx to a fuzzy cosstet matrx R 2 : R2 = The thrd step: the calculato of the weght of model [8]. Accordg to the formula below: W = + rk a = 2a a k = 2 The usual weght of AS proect ca be cocluded: ( W, W, W ) = ( 0.26, 0.33, 0.363) Varable Weght Determato of ZC Compay AS Power Proect See from the calculato of usual weght, the ecoomy, relablty ad expasblty of ZC Compay AS power proect were 0.26, 0.33 ad 0.363, the three usual weghts are determed the overall vestmet evromet. Because of the features of the ZC Compay AS power proect, the process of vestmet decso, t s ecessary to adust target weght of the proect, target weght, so that each proect dcators get balace. From vew of ZC Compay AS power proect vestmet, satsfacto dex of ecoomy, relablty ad expasblty were respectvely 95%, 96% ad 95%. Accordg to the followg varable weght formula: 645

7 W X w s x w w w S x x x 0 = = = (, 2, 3) Through calculato, the egeerg dex as show Table 3. As we ca see Table 3, the varable weghts of ecoomy dex, the relablty dex, developmet dex of ZC Compay AS electrc power egeerg proects are respectvely 0.2, 0.32, 0.37, satsfacto degree was 95%, 96% ad 84% respectvely. It ca be see that vestmet developmet s lower, compared varable weghts wth usual weghts, the ecoomy dex ad relablty dex weght has decreased, but the developmetal dex weght creased. Ths meas that relablty ad ecoomy of ZC Compay AS power proect s relatvely hgh, but the developmetal slghtly suffcet, therefore, for ZC Compay AS power proect, t s mportace to promote developmet ablty Model Solve of ZC Compay AS Power Egeerg Proect Accordg to relevat results of vestmet structure of ZC Compay AS power egeerg proect, t ca be cocluded the vestmet quota, proect umbers ad the umber of actually proects actually ole of ZC Compay AS power egeerg proect, as show Table 4. As ca be see from Table 4, fve maor costructo proects have 53 small proects, total vestmet of 46 proects s 8.64 mllo, wth total vestmet quota should ot exceed 20 mllo, there are seve small proects wll ot be able to ole ths year Establshmets the Amout of Ivestmet AS Electrc Power Proect Accordg to the upper lmt of each tem vestmet, ad establsh the amout of vestmet AS electrc power proect. I Table 5, bg sze of frastructure vestmet accouts for largest percetage (66%) of the total amout of vestmet, ths ot oly coforms to the characterstcs of electrc power egeerg proect vestmet, ad accord wth the fact of ZC Compay AS power proect. I addto, the proporto of the small sze of frastructure vestmet ad producto, the techcal trasformato vestmet s hgher, also have accouted for 5% of the total amout of vestmet, t shows that ZC Compay AS power for techcal reovato proect vestmet s very ecessary. Table 3. The operato of ZC Compay AS power egeerg proect. Egeerg ame Ivestmet quota Idex Ecoomy Relablty Expasblty Operato value AS power egeerg proect 20 mllo Satsfacto dex 95% 96% 84% Table 4. Results of ZC Compay AS power proect vestmet structure. Ivestmet proect Proect umbers the lbrary Actually vestmet proect umbers Ivestmet quota Bgger vestmet frastructure small sze of the vestmet frastructure 3 47 The vestmet of producto ad techcal ovato Sporadc purchase vestmets Iformato techology vestmet Amout to 53 46,

8 Table 5. ZC Compay AS power proect vestmet proporto. Name Total amout of vestmet Sum up Total costructo vestmet,864 percetage 00.00% Bgger vestmet frastructure % small sze of the vestmet frastructure 47 2% The vestmet of producto ad techcal ovato 802 5% Sporadc purchase vestmets 579 5% Iformato techology vestmet 247 2% As ca be see from Table 2, vestmet quota of ZC Compay power egeerg proect s 20 mllo, proects vestmet fve areas ca satsfy the upper ad lower bouds of each proect vestmet at the same tme, therefore, Table 5 s the best solve of ZC Compay AS power proect vest decso-makg. 4. Cocluso Ths paper takes vestmet AS power egeerg proect of ZC Compay plas 206 as the research obect, from the agle of facal maagemet ad research, aalyzes vestmet structure of AS power egeerg proect, ad classfes ad evaluates the operatoal dcator of ZC Compay AS power proect to provde the bass for balace of AS power egeerg proect vestmet. Thus t shows that the scetfc budget of the vestmet structure has sgfcat mpacts o AS electrc power proect, tryg to provde ew deas for proect vestmet of the smlar electrc power eterprse. Refereces [] Che, Y.-L. (2008) Research o Ivestmet Proect Decso-Makg ad Method of Eterprse. Joural of Chogqg Isttute of Techology (Socology),, [2] Ross, S.A. (978) A Smple Approach to the Valuato of Rsks Icome Streams. Joural of Busess, 5, [3] Meg, Z. (20) Ivestmet Portfolo Study o Ol ad Gas Explorato Proect. Cha Petroleum Uversty, Qgdao ad Dogyg. [4] Wag, L. (2007) Rsk Causes ad Cotrol Coutermeasures of Proect Ivestmet Decso-Makg. Market Moderzato, 7, [5] Ja, G. (2008) Smply Makes Use of the Method of AHP the Ivestmet Decso-Makg. Joural of Iformato Scece ad Techology, 23, [6] Zhag, W.-G., Q, M. ad Che, C.-W. (20) Fuzzy Optmzato Method of the Proect Ivestmet Portfolo. Joural of Maagemet, 6, [7] Marshall, J.F., Vpul ad Basal, K. (992) Facal Egeerg. Alla & Baco Ic., New York. [8] Huag, X.-Q. (20) Apply to Fuzzy Comprehesve Evaluato Method Electrc Power Egeerg Proect. Joural of Securty Techology of Electrc Power, 8,