LEVERAGING FORESIGHT AND ROADMAP APPROACHES TO SUPPORT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA

Transcription

1 LEVERAGING FORESIGHT AND ROADMAP APPROACHES TO SUPPORT OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) DEVELOPMENT IN MALAYSIA Suzanne Ong Gui Xian M. Phil Candidate Malaysia Japan International Institute of Technology Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Main Supervisor: Dr. Akbariah Mahdzir Malaysia Japan International Institute of Technology Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Co-Supervisor: Dr. Aini Suzana Ariffin Perdana School of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 3 rd International OTEC SYMPOSIUM _ SUZANNE ONG 1-2 SEPTEMBER,

2 Contents Research Problem Objective Research Design Proposed Roadmap Presentation 2

3 Megatrend: Energy Scenario Source: Prof. Maulud (2014) 3

4 What will be the most dominant energy carrier in 21 st century? 4

5 MOST DOMINANT ENERGY CARRIER IN 21 ST CENTURY? HYDROGEN NG COAL OIL Note: Chilled Water Liquid N2, Liquid CO2 Fig. 1. Evolution of global market shares of different final- energy carriers for the period based on the scenario by Barreto et al. The alcohols category includes methanol and ethanol Source: Ibrahim Dincer (2008) 5

6 350,000 Electricity Generation by Energy Source, GWh 300, , , , ,000 50, OTEC ,848 7,884 15,768 27,594 47,304 59,129 Fuel Cell ,665 4,054 11,603 27,782 53,194 Bioenergy 809 1,455 1,567 4,088 7,553 12,535 14,832 17,823 21,049 Wind Energy ,095 2,601 5,913 10,052 14,520 18,922 Solar PV ,579 2,631 3,999 6,314 9,502 11,913 Nuclear ,264 12,264 12,264 12,264 11,650 Wave/ Tidal/ Current ,548 5,868 7,603 9,662 Hydropower 9,056 9,084 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531 9,531 Geothermal ,264 2,122 3,174 4,318 Fossil Fuel 124, , , , , , , , ,047 Total 134, , , , , , , , ,417 Source: ASM TF CFE (2015) 6

7 Shares of Energy Sources in Electricity Generation, % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% OTEC Fuel Cell Bioenergy Wind Energy Solar PV Nuclear Wave/ Tidal/ Current Hydropower Geothermal Fossil Fuel Total % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: ASM TF CFE (2015) 7

8 Research Objectives 1. To explore landscape and readiness for Malaysia in developing the OTEC industry 2. To propose an OTEC- Hydrogen Industry Roadmap. 8

9 Research Design OTEC Roadmap Conceptualization & Development For Malaysia Qualitative Approach Case Study Method Roadmapping and Complexity Theory Technique: [Doc Analysis, Environmental Scanning Seminar, Focus group, Semi-structured interview] Case Selection Development Interview Protocol Develop Roadmap Template Data Collection 1 Data Collection 2 Data Collection 3 Report Writing Report Writing Report Writing Constant Comparative Analysis Develop Proposed Roadmap 9

10 Strategic Landscape Kehoe, (2013) reiterates that a, multi-national vision, strategy and collaboration is needed to; conduct fundamental and applied OTEC research, develop a stable market structure for OTEC, identify areas suitable for development, perform in situ environmental studies, build a trained OTEC workforce, contracting services and infrastructure, improve performance and reduce costs, and resolve grid integration issues. 10

11 Foresight for OTEC Development Anticipating & managing change Enables stakeholders to wisely create their futures Systematic, participatory and interactive approach Policy implications 11

12 Roadmaps and Development Companies and governments in France, Japan, the Philippines and South Korea have developed roadmaps for OTEC or Ocean Energy development Source: (Brochard, 2013; Marasigan, 2013; Kim and Yeo, 2013; Okamura, 2013) Indonesia is mapping its OTEC potential, and the Philippines has been considering feed-in tariffs for OTEC. Source: (Suprijo, 2012; NREB, 2012) 12

13 DCNS,

14 Lockheed Martin 14

15 Philippines 15

16 South Korea 16

17 TECHNOLOGY PUSH & MARKET PULL 17

18 Hydrogen is a high-value OTEC product 18

19 Main Market Drivers Social and economic factors. 19

20 Driver Government support is one of the most important requirements for pushing the OTEC industry with hydrogen as a product. Policy could be used as a tool to prompt a new market. 20

21 Source: Prof Wan Ramli Wan Daud (2006) 21

22 Future Direction for OTEC-Hydrogen Integration Measures : Phase 3 1. (CURRENT) 2015: Phase 1 Dramatic expansion of hydrogen awareness and use (Full fledged introduction of fuel cells into society) Phase 2 Full-fledged introduction of hydrogen power generation/ Establishment of a large scale system for supplying hydrogen Establishment of a hydrogen supply system throughout the manufacturing process Anticipating energy demand growth 22

23 Strategic Landscape Roadmap for OTEC Product: Hydrogen Timelines Short Term (2015) Medium Term ( ) Long Term ( ) Trends and Drivers Social: Public & stakeholder awareness, Safety concerns, Pollution (from cars), Health risk assessment Technology: Hydrogen commercialized technology still at introduction lifecycle, OTEC the most feasible source of H2, Improvisations in conversion tech favour H2 as energy carrier Economic: Fossil fuel still affordable, leveraging sustainable competitive advantages of various companies Environment: Hydrogen as energy source reduces pollution Political: No policy on OTEC, Government incentives & initiatives needed; political ownership needed, COP15 Industrial Ammonia (fertilizer industry), electricity, oil refining Cost effective H2 tanks & pipelines advanced material such as carbon nano tubes Full industrial usage via centralized pipelines Applications Technology Programs/ Projects Transport Domestic (Wild Cards) Heat Exchanger Electrolysis Storage and Transport Standards & Testing Government Support Research Strategic Alliance Advertiseme nts/ Promotions UTM- OTEC Center Joint research- Uni & RI Advertisement on busses Bus Advanced materials Efficient, robust, reliable Standards Unmanned plane, deep ocean vessel Legal & regulation University courses on sustainable energy ie. OTEC, H2 commercial uses, H2 exports Hydrogen and OTEC companies Subsidized H2 for consumer Superconductor (more efficient process) Infrastructure Reforming Cheaper Boats Electrolysis Research grants on cost effective process for H2 harvesting Hydrogen pipeline Hydrogen bomb Intelligent sensor- wiper, lights, air con Piping companies Cooking gas Use carbon nano tubes (for storage) Piping and transport Safety compliance Cars (Mass acceptance) Supplying het & electricity Hydrogen for normal fusion, cold fusion VISION: Hydrogen to be an attractive and competitive energy source 1 VISION: OTEC to help fulfill the hydrogen economy Resources Financial: Duit zakat, Sukuk and bonds to secure financial resources Advertisement/ Promotions: Awareness through movies, dramas & entertainment; ie. Interstellar promotes wormholes, blackholes, etc. Financial: Loanmanufacturing plant; gov fund; R&D in advanced materials Human Resource: H2 logistic experts, H2 harvest engineers Standards: Adapt from oil & gas Regulatory: Policy & Industry incentives to encourage OTEC technology adoption 23

24 LEGAL/ POLICY TECHNOLOGY Future Landscape for OTEC-Hydrogen Integration Hydrogen OTEC (CURRENT) Phase 1 Dramatic expansion of hydrogen awareness and use Phase 2 Full-fledged introduction of hydrogen power generation/ Establishment of a large scale system for supplying hydrogen Phase 3 Establishment of a hydrogen supply system throughout the manufacturing process 20MW 850MW 2,500MW Technology Readiness of OTEC A less than 10 MWe floating, closed-cycle OTEC facility is technically feasible using current design, manufacturing, deployment techniques and materials." Nancy E. Kinner, Ph.D.(2009) CDR approach [Refer presentation by Dato Bakar of UTM OTEC] CDR Table Year 2018: Offshore 10 MWe net is to be commissioned [Refer presentation by Mr Thierry Bouchet of DCNS] Source: Dato Ir Dr A Bakar Jaafar, ASM CFE Workshop (2015) Legal No legal provision specifically govern Ocean Thermal Energy per se, but existing laws are sufficient for OTEC activity Ocean energy incorporated in 11 th Malaysia Plan ( ) 24

25 Projected Growth in Capacity: OTEC in Malaysia Year Capacity (MW) Growth Rate (%) Remark x10 MW public-private RMK For 7% reduction in carbon intensity To match nuclear power To match nuclear power To meet H2 demand [As at 24 April 2015] Revised after ASM CFE Workshop Source: Dato Ir Dr A Bakar Jaafar 25

26 OTEC s Strategic Lens: Why Hydrogen? Resource Proximity Deep waters far from land H 2 from renewable cheaper than H 2 from fossil fuels. Cheaper! Why Hydrogen? Electricity uptake limitation Electricity uptake limited by existence of deep water O&G productionsurplus (produce H 2 ) 26

27 2015 (Current) SUMMARY 2020 Hydrogen Economy 2030 Establishment of a large scale system for supplying hydrogen Establishment of a hydrogen supply system throughout the manufacturing process 5 year plan OTEC technology development & commercialization OTEC 27

28 CONCLUSION OTEC benefits far outweigh the costs Roadmap sheds light on policy directions, priorities, and strategies on energy supply Very strong case for the growth & development of OTEC Significant insights and call to action for policy makers, power producers, industry and consumers 28

29 Invest in OTEC for our future! 29

30 THANK YOU 30