Challenges and Perspectives on Energy Transition in S. Korea

Transcription

1 환경과인간 ISESEA-6: Energy Transition in East Asia October 19, 2017 National Taiwan University Challenges and Perspectives on Energy Transition in S. Korea : South Korea s Energy Policy at a Crossroads YUN, Sun-Jin (Seoul National University)

2 Contents I. Introduction II. Past and Present Korea s Energy Policy III. Challenges to Energy Transition in S. Korea IV. Opportunities for an Energy Transition V. The Current Energy Democracy Experiment V. Conclusion

3 환경과인간 I. Introduction

4 I. Introduction President Moon pledged Nuclear-free Society "The shutdown of KORI 1 is the beginning of a nuclear-free energy country, a paradigm shift for a safer Korea (June 19, 2017) Phase Out of Nuclear and Coal Power Plants Increase of New & Renewable Energy (20% of electricity generation by 2030) Increase of LNG Power Plants 4

5 II. Past and Present Korea s Energy and Climate Mitigation Policy

6 II. Past and Present Korea s Energy Consumption South Korea s Energy Supply and Demand Category 2015 Share Primary Energy (MTOE) 287, % Coal 85, % Petroleum 109, % LNG 43, % Hydro 1, % Nuclear 34, % Renewables 12, % Final Energy (MTOE) 218,608 (76.0% of TPES) Source: MOTIE & KEEI,

7 II. Past and Present Korea s Energy Consumption South Korea s selected indicators 2014 Category Number Population (million) GDP (million 2010 USD) GDP (PPP) (million 2010 USD) Energy Production (MTOE Net Imports (MTOE) TPES (MTOE) Electricity Consumption (TWh) 532 CO 2 emission (MTOE of CO 2 ) Source: IEA,

8 II. Past and Present Korea s Energy Consumption South Korea s Electricity mix Category Electricity capacity Capacity (kw) Share (%) Electricity generation Generation (GWh) Share (%) Total 97,648, , Hydro 6,470, , Nuclear 21,712, , District Energy 5,360, , Alternative Energy 5,649, , Thermal 58,452, , Source: MOTIE & KEEI,

9 II. Past and Present Korea s Energy Consumption Trend of New & Renewable Energy in South Korea Category Generation (1,000 TOE) Proportion (%) Generation (1,000 TOE) Proportion (%) Primary Energy 282, , New & Renewable 11, , Renewable 11, , New Source: MOTIE & Korea Energy Agency,

10 II. Past and Present Korea s Energy Consumption Trends of GDP, Energy Consumption and Energy Intensity Change 10

11 II. Past and Present Korea s Energy Consumption S. Korea is an electricity-intensive society Per capita electricity consumption of major OECD Member states

12 II. Past and Present Korea s Energy Consumption Residential VS. Industrial Elec. Consumption Residential Consumption/capita Industrial Consumption/capita 12

13 II. Past and Present Korea s Energy Consumption Trends of GDP and Energy Consumption Growth 13

14 환경과인간 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea

15 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Korea's GHG Reduction Target 2030 Reduced by 37% compared to 2030 BAU Domestic reduction 25.7% + international emission credits purchase 11.3% Industry is limited to 12% reduction compared BAU 15

16 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Ran king Significance of Climate Change Country CO 2 Emissions from fuel combustion Population MtCO 2 % Million % GDP-PPP Billion US $ in year 2005 Primary Energy Supply % MTOE % 1 China 9, , , , USA 5, , , India 2, , , Russia 1, , Japan 1, , Germany , Korea , Iran , Canada , South Africa Source: IEA, 2016, Key World Energy Statistics 2016(Data for 2014) 16

17 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Comparison of Nuclear Power Status World Installation Capacity (GWe) Number of Reactors USA France Japan Russia China Korea USA France Japan Russia China Korea Reactors under Construction (GW (Number)) Nuclear Power Generation (2015, TWh) Proportion of Nuclear Power Generation (2015, %) Nuclear Density (kw/km 2 ) China Russia Korea USA India UAE 22.6(20) 5.9(7) 5.6(4) 5.0(4) 3.3(5) 4.2(3) USA France Russia Canada China Korea France Ukraine Slovakia Sweden Swiss Korea (58) 2, Korea Belgium Taiwan Japan France Swiss Source: IEA, 2016, Key World Energy Statistics 2016(Data for 2014) 17

18 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Top of the World in terms of Nuclear Density Number of Reactors 18

19 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Condensed Location of Multiple Reactors 4 Hanul: 5,900MW (will be8700mw) Hanvit: 5,900MW Wolsung: 4,779MW, 1.3million pop. Kori: 5,950MW, 3.8bmillion pop. 19

20 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Shin-Kori 5 & 6 under debate: the densest site 20

21 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Shin-Kori 5 & 6 under debate: Additional risks 3.8 million people within 30 km Essential economic facilities within 30km Risks are added to existing risks Onetime accident is significantly fatal 21

22 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Shin-Kori 5 & 6 under debate: Earthquake & Evacuation More than 60 faults with seismic activity No evacuation simulation and scenario 22

23 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Radioactive wastes are temporarily stored 23

24 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Strong resistance from stakeholders of the conventional energy system Construction Stop of Shin-Kori 5 & 6 NGOs struggle to stop construction of nuclear power plants Labor Union Protest of Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Protest of local residents around Shin-Kori 24

25 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Public Engagement Process Initiated Public Engagement Committee established on July 24,

26 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Public Engagement Committee Committee Research Communication Deliberation Law Communication Council - Official communication channel with pro- and con-construction of Shin-Kori 5 & 6 - Restart camp: Korea Nuclear Industry Association - Stop camp: Citizens action to nullify Shin-Kori 5 & 6 Experts Group for Data Verification Committee to verify Activities of the Public Engagement Committee Local Round Debates and TV Debates 26

27 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Public Engagement Process 1 st survey Citizen Jury Final survey Decision Announce -ment Deliberation Major Issues - Safety - Economical efficiency - Sunk cost - Stability of electricity supply - Electricity utility fee rise - Representativeness - Expertise - Short period27

28 III. Challenges to Energy Transition in South Korea Citizen Jury Workshop: 2 nights and 3 days 28

29 환경과인간 IV. Opportunities for an Energy Transition

30 IV. Opportunities for an Energy Transition Growth of Energy Autonomy Declaration of Municipal Energy Transition Declaration of Energy Transition City 45+1 Local Government ( ) Kyeonggido Energy Vision 2030( ) Seoul One Less Nuclear Power Plant ( ) Joint Declaration on Local Energy Transition( ) Carbon Free Island Jeju ( ) 30

31 IV. Opportunities for an Energy Transition Willingness to Pay for Renewable Energy Category Source: Korea Gallop Poll, 23 June 2017 Agreement (%) Opposition (%) Energy Transition Old Nuclear Power Plant Shut Down New Nuclear Power Plant Construction Stop Coal Power Plant Early Shut Down New Coal Power Plants Construction Stop Additional Payment of Electricity Bill

32 환경과인간 Ⅴ. Conclusion 32

33 Opportunities V. Conclusion Opportunities and Challenges Supply-oriented energy policy Conventional stakeholders Momentum of conventional energy system Short-term economical efficiencyoriented Lack of institutional & financial support Challenges Strong policy will of central government Diverse transition experiments in local areas Increase of climate disaster & earthquake risk Increase of citizens awareness & actions Effectuation of the Paris Agreement & global trend of energy transition 33

34 V. Conclusion Implications of Public Engagement on the Construction of Shin-Kori 5 & 6 Historical experiment: The first event in terms of public engagement in energy policy, especially nuclear policy Energy discourse was extended among lay citizens Complementing the existing uneven playing field: Lay people have been exposed to pro-nuclear information until the ex-government Learning process of (energy) democracy through deliberation process Performing technological citizenship and fostering 34 energy citizenship

35 V. Conclusion Policy Recommendation for energy transition in South Korea Prioritizing of energy efficiency improvement, demandside management and renewable energy Increasing transparency in electricity prices and restructuring electricity price system through internalization of social and environmental costs Integrating energy and climate change policy Democratic and communicative energy policy decisionmaking process needs to be extended Decentralization of authority in energy policy and administration Speed up of sound investments in future power generation for future generations 35

36 환경과인간 Thank you! 36