Have you stress tested your city?

Transcription

1 Have you stress tested your city? Atkins North America Future Proofing Cities The Next Generation of Master Planning ASFPM, 2016

2 The Future Proofing Cities Process 28 June 2016 To update footer go to 'Insert' Tab > Header & Footer 2

3 Miami Beach Report Card 28 June

4 Community Stress Testing In Stress Testing, we analyze the city over a long planning horizon during business-as-usual and disaster times. City Prosperity Index (UN-Specified Index of City Wellness) Business as Usual High Rate of Improvement Low Rate of Improvement Natural disasters are simulated at the size and frequency resulting from climate change. Natural Recovery Disaste r Natural Disasters result in little drop in prosperity Natural Disasters result in large drop in prosperity Lack of preparedness makes it difficult to recover. Sometimes the situation worsens after the disaster. Recovery is fast due to preparedness Business as Usual Resumes high rate of improvement quickly. Recovers after a long time, and remains at low rate of improvement. Resilient City Unresilient City Business as Usual Natural Disaste r Recovery Business as Usual

5 Stress Testing Leveraging Existing Model Results to Understand the complete resiliency picture GHG Protocol City Simulator UN IPCC-Specified GCM Projections SLAMM Carbon Footprin t Natural System Change s Econom ics Florida Bureau of Economic Development Yearly Loop ( ) Adjust Floodplains Ecosystem Service s Daily Loop City Product -ivity Storm Infrastructure Affected New Places of Work Workers Climate Impacted Storm Forecast FEMA SFHA ATKINS Urban Floodplain Adapter Algorithm New Infrastructur e Families New Housing NOAA SLOSH

6 The importance of timing in city resilience A 2020 hurricane has a different impact than a 2040 hurricane Scenario 1 First major hurricane in 2036; Two major hurricanes within 25 years City Growth impacted because storms occur close together and long spell of no storm reduces preparedness Scenario 2 First major hurricane in 2056; Only one until 2100 City growth impacted heavily because of long spell since major storm reduces preparedness Scenario 3 First major hurricane in 2047: Major storms very far apart. City growth is impacted, but low frequency of storms gives city time to recover and grow. Scenario 4 First major hurricane in 2032; Two majors 25 years apart. Major storm occurs in planning time horizon and is compounded by another major storm. Rainfall Projections with Climate Change Impact Included With current preparedness Worst Case Many Storms Happen early and frequently, with little preparedness Expected Total City Productivity ( ) Best Case Few Storms Happen late and infrequent, with high preparedness With improved preparedness Expected Scenario 5 First major hurricane in 2050; Two majors, but 50 years apart. City growth is impacted, but low frequency of storms gives city time to recover and grow. Scenario 6 Major storms in 2016 and 2020; Magnitude is less than other scenarios. Major storms very close to present and in quick succession impacts growth severely, especially the second storm. The low magnitude reduces impact significantly. Stress test includes hundreds of plausible versions of future rainfall events. Worst Case Most important to ensure worst case is controlled Total City Productivity ( ) Best Case Productivity is improved across all scenarios

7 A Resiliency Plan should Ensure City Productivity Resiliency Plan ensures city productivity goal is met over broader range of future storm conditions City Productivity Productivity Goal Infrequent/Mild Storms Frequent/Strong Storms

8 The Solution Options 28 June 2016 To update footer go to 'Insert' Tab > Header & Footer 8

9 The Results 28 June 2016 To update footer go to 'Insert' Tab > Header & Footer 9

10 Case Study: Dominican Republic Allowing for new construction within floodplain. Enforcing law of no new construction in floodplain. $23M 22% Increased Productivity in a single large-storm year 28 June

11 Animated Demonstrations Yearly FPC Simulator Natural System Changes Adjust Floodplains Economics Storm Daily Productivity New Infrastructure Infrastructure Affected New Commercial Buildings Families Workers New Housing Housing Commercial Resorts 28 June

12 Case Study: Bonita Springs, FL City Growth under realistic climate change conditions Housing Commercial Resorts

13 FPC Collaborators and Partners Impact Infrastructure Application Proven Components R&D Core Science & Engineering 28 June

14 Questions 28 June

15 What we need to get started Client Data 28 June 2016 To update footer go to 'Insert' Tab > Header & Footer 15

16 Data Item Data Class Notes Parcels GIS Preferably with heated square feet, zoning, landuse, and taxable value Building Footprints GIS Preferably with number of floors and if they have basements DEM GIS Stormwater System GIS Wastewater System GIS Public Critical Facilities GIS May be contained in building footprints Water Supply System GIS Including Critical Facilities Power System GIS Including Critical Facilities Telecommunications systems GIS Including Critical Facilities Roads & Parking Lots GIS Landuse GIS Preferably current and future Soils GIS Zoning Plan This may be a map of zones plus another tabel that lists the rules applied to the zones, and when they are GIS applied Locations of Capital Improvement Projects GIS preferably with planned install dates Major business areas including ports, airports, CBD, etc. GIS Any knowledge of the businesses in them Population Model Results Current and Future in the form of time series for the region and subregions if possible. Economic Growth Forecasts Model Results Look for time series that specify the growth rates for the future, preferably by sector Transportation Models Model Results Activity based models that show projected number of trips from place to place in the city 28 June

17 Road Map Business Development City Simulator Model Development 28 June 2016 To update footer go to 'Insert' Tab > Header & Footer 17

18 FPC Model/Tool Road Map Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6 Phase 7 Phase 8 Other Phases Process Metric(s) City Growth Spurred by economics Population, Demographi cs, Num. Business, Productivity Basic Flood Potential Loss in Productivity Coastal flooding P(flooding) by structure for both parcel and Finished Floor Flood Adaptation/ Mitigation Response (Freeboard) Construction Cost, Insurance Premium Shift, Out-of- Pocket, Productivity Loss Zoning/ Landuse Plan Simulation Tax Revenue, Citizen Health, Citizen Productivity Carbon Footprint Estimation Carbon Footprint by infrastructure type, industry type Ecosystem Services Primary Productivity Other ES Metrics Disaster Response/ Recovery Recovery Time Loss in Productivity Tech/Smart Cities, Complete Streets Car Pool Van Pool School Pool Autonomous Vehicles Root Science/ Tech Atlanta Regional Commissio n Model StormCaste r SFHA, SLOSH FIRE, USACE Building Model, Neumann Model Atkins UK, Well-briefing, APA, Georgia Tech, UGA GHG Protocol (UN) Literature Literature Method Contributors Bourne Bourne, Depue Bourne, Depue, Medina Bourne, Medina, Ashley, Depue Garcia, Atkins UK, UGA, Georgia Tech Bourne, TBD UGA, MIT Atkins EM, Stanford