Case Studies from Thailand: International Experience on Rooftop Solar PV Development

Transcription

1 PHOTO CREDIT: ISTOCK.COM USAID CLEAN POWER ASIA Case Studies from Thailand: International Experience on Rooftop Solar PV Development Supawan Saelim, Renewable Energy Policy Specialist Sopitsuda Tongsopit, Renewable Energy Policy Expert USAID Clean Power Asia August 31, 2018 Prepared for the 7 th Indonesia EBTKE Conference and Exhibition in Jakarta 8/31/2018 1

2 USAID Clean Power Asia program 5 years: June 2016 June 2021 Aims to increase deployment in grid-connected renewable energy in Asia Focus on Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam Goals: 15 laws/policies/regulations $750 M USD investment mobilization 500 MW of installed RE 3.5 M tco2e reduction Implemented by Abt Associates and partners Funded by United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Our website link: 8/31/2018 2

3 Agenda Thailand s solar PV policy development Current status of solar PV installed capacity Market segments for solar PV and policy evolution Prospects for solar PV policies under discussions Key characteristics of rooftop PV market conditions in Thailand Study on rooftop PV customer economics in Thailand Analysis framework and results Research insights from Thailand Remaining challenges for Thailand s rooftop PV market 8/31/2018 3

4 Status of grid-connected solar PV in Thailand Solar Farm 3,002 MW Rooftop Solar 243 MW Rooftop Solar- FIT 131 MW Rooftop Solar- Self-Consumption (No Export) 112 MW Source: ERC, Presentation in Seminar Thailand s Energy Policy in the age of Disruptive Technology on Aug 27, Thailand Office of Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) 31/08/61 4

5 Thailand: Market segments for solar PV and policy evolution Utility-Scale Ground-mounted (>1 MW-90 MW) Adder ( ) Fixed FIT ( ) Commercial Roof (>10-1 MW) Adder ( ) Fixed FIT ( ) Self- Consumption Pilot (2016) Residential Roof (0-10 kw) Adder ( ) Fixed FIT ( ) Self- Consumption Pilot (2016) FOR EXPORT TO GRID FOR SELF CONSUMPTION 5 Parallel interconnection (any scale on roof) Note: Adder is a premium rate paid on top of electricity users wholesale electricity rate for electricity power generated from renewable energy resources. Fixed FIT is a fixed rate paid for each kwh of RE electricity generated. 8/31/2018 5

6 Prospects for solar PV policies under discussion Self-consumption only (no export) already ongoing Rooftop PV, allowing export to the utilities grids: Net billing Rooftop PV for off-grid areas Peer-to-peer solar power trading 8/31/2018 6

7 Key characteristics of rooftop PV market conditions in Thailand Currently, the main configuration is for self-consumption only Exported power is neither allowed nor compensated for Upcoming trial on P2P rooftop solar electricity trading Investment costs range from 0.84 USD/watt (industrial) to 1.21USD/watt (residential) and declining Major market sectors are commercial and industrial for selfconsumption; residential market still lags behind due to high transaction costs Dominant business models: Private PPAs 31/08/61 7

8 Upcoming private sector trial on P2P solar trading Photo Credit: BCPG Collaboration with local distribution utility (MEA), which is also planning to spin off into a local power producers using solar PV A total of 635KW of solar PV installed on rooftops of 4 types of properties: Shopping center, school, condo, and dental hospital Thai utility, MEA, allows access to the grid for electricity transactions Excess power from one building is sold to another building; if there s still any excess left, stored in energy storage If storage is full, sold to the MEA s grid 15% lower than MEA s retail electricity price If successful, will deploy additional 2 MW over a 3-year period 31/08/61 8

9 Study on rooftop PV customer economics in Thailand Policy context: Transition from FIT to self-consumption; Lack of compensation mechanism since 2015 Project period: Objective: To determine the economics of self-consumption of DPV for various customer groups under various compensation mechanisms Stakeholders: Thailand Ministry of Energy, state regulator, distribution utilities, Chulalongkorn University Approach: stakeholder engagement in the design of compensation mechanism and checking research framework and assumptions for economic simulation Findings: policy recommendations to Thailand s MOE on appropriate compensation mechanism (net billing), buyback rate, and detailed designs Outcome: DEDE approved and announced the launch of a net billing scheme in 2017 but no further policy actions to date. As of August 2018, Thailand s Ministry of Energy is discussing the use of net billing as the compensation mechanism for exported DPV power 31/08/61 9

10 Analysis framework Develop representative systems Apply different elements of compensation mechanisms Sell rate for excess generation Netting frequency Billing period Banking period Expiration of credits Charges (e.g., net metering charge, backup fees) Other incentives Results NPV IRR PB LCOE Base case Sensitivity Cases Each representative system has a unique set of load profile/customer group, PV production profile, rate class, costs, financing method, business model, and discount rate. 31/08/61 10

11 Results Indicators Residential customers Small business Medium-scale customers Large-scale customers TOU rate On peak =5.639 Off-peak =2.478 On peak =5.639 Off-peak =2.478 On peak =4.051 Off-peak =2.471 On peak =4.051 Off peak =2.471 LCOE (THB/kWh) 3.79 NM Compensation scheme NM NB NM NB NM NB NM NB Compensation rate*(thb/kwh) IRR (%) PB (Year) Source: Tongsopit, S., Julakarn, S., et al (2017) Remarks: NM = Net Metering; NB = Net Billing, In case of Net Billing, PV/Load not more than 40% In addition, we used PV/Load ratios from % in our modeling

12 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 150% 200% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 150% 200% IRR (%) IRR (%) 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% IRR (%) IRR (%) Results: Sensitivity analysis on PV-to-load ratio Residential- Block Rates Residential- TOU Rates Annual PV Production (kwh)/annual Elec. Load (kwh) Block rate 1.00 Baht Block rate 2.00 Baht Block rate 3.00 Baht Annual PV Production (kwh)/annual Elec. Load (kwh) TOU rate 1.00 Baht TOU rate 2.00 Baht TOU rate 3.00 Baht Commercial 1.00 Baht 2.00 Baht 3.00 Baht Industrial 1.00 Baht 2.00 Baht 3.00 Baht Source: Tongsopit, S., Julakarn, S., et al. (2017) Annual PV Production (kwh)/annual Elec. Load (kwh) Annual PV Production (kwh)/annual Elec. Load (kwh) Source: Results from Evaluation studying in Thailand 12

13 Feasibility analysis: Results from various regions in Thailand Source: Tongsopit, S., Julakarn, S., et al. (2017) 31/08/61 13

14 Research insights from Thailand In most cases, net metering is more economically attractive than the existing pilot project and the net billing schemes. Despite buyback rates that are lower than retail rates, net billing remained more attractive than two other investment options, including putting money in the bank and buying the government s bonds. When the buyback rate is lower than retail rate, net billing incentivizes selfconsumption. Customers would be more sensitive to PV sizing under this type of net billing than net metering. Taking into consideration diverse stakeholders perspectives, including those of the customers, the utilities, and other ratepayers, the study recommends net billing as the future support scheme to succeed the pilot project. To determine the right value of excess generation, the research team included many considerations such as: Reference against past criterion of IRR to set FIT (>=10%) Compare IRRs against IRRs of other investment types Utility revenue and rate Impact of different buyback rates 31/08/61 14

15 Three aspects of analysis for DPV policy consideration in Thailand Customer economic impacts Utility revenue and rate impacts Technical impacts Collaboration between USAID Clean Power Asia, US labs, and local university helped answer most of the concerning questions Access to DPV policy brief in Thailand: bit.ly/2n1dlnm-polbrief 31/08/61 15

16 Remaining challenges Policy uncertainties and lack of a system for public participation Certain myths about DPV can delay the policy process Need a more simplified and streamlined permitting process Lack of easy access on the status of applications to different permits Remaining barriers in the distribution grid code, including: Requirement of reverse power relay, which is repetitive with inverter s function Cap on cumulative installed capacity as a percentage of transformer size 31/08/61 16

17 PHOTO CREDIT: ISTOCK.COM Mr. Sithisakdi Apichatthanapath USAID Regional Development Mission for Asia Athenee Tower, 25th Floor 63 Wireless Road, Patumwan Bangkok, Thailand Tel: Ms. Dana Kenney USAID Clean Power Asia Abdulrahim Place, Suite Rama IV Road Bangrak, Bangkok Tel: USAID CLEAN POWER ASIA 8/31/

18 Appendix 8/31/

19 Data requirements and process Source: Tongsopit, S., Julakarn, S., et al. (2017) 31/08/61 19

20 Load profile selection Type of customers Load profile Load profile selection 1. Residential (RES) 2. Small general service (SGS) 3. Medium general service (MGS) Represents residential-scale customers without day load Represents residential-scale customers with day load; small businesses Represents medium-scale customers 4. Large general service (LGS) 5. Specific business 6. Non-profit organization Represents large-scale customers NOT included NOT included These four customer classes make up approximately 93% of the MEA s total load in 2015.

21 Base case: PV size and PV/load ratio Load type PV size (kwdc) Residential 3 50% PV/load ratio commercial % industrial 1,000 50% 8/31/