Multifamily Net Zero Retrofit Market: Technical and Cost Benchmarks for San Francisco

Transcription

1 Multifamily Net Zero Retrofit Market: Technical and Cost Benchmarks for San Francisco 1

2 Table of Contents Acronym Key Analysis Process Retrofit Economics Technical Analysis Details 6 Unit Building Analysis Results 15 Unit Building Analysis Results 65 Unit Building Analysis Results 2

3 Acronym Key ACEEE American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy ACH5 Air Changes Per Hour Taken at 5 Pascals AFUE Annual Fuel Utilization Efficiency ASHRAE American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air- Conditioning Engineers BAU Business As Usual BB Baseboard BEopt NREL s Building Energy Optimization Model CFL Compact Fluorescent Lamp CO 2 Carbon Dioxide DHW Domestic Hot Water ECM Energy Conservation Measure EE Energy Efficiency EIA Energy Information Administration EUI Energy Use Intensity GPM Gallons Per Minute HP Heat Pump HPHW Heat Pump Hot Water HSPF Heating Seasonal Performance Factor HVAC Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning HW Hot Water ITC Solar Investment Tax Credit kbtu Kilo British Thermal Unit kw Kilo Watt LB - Pound LED Light Emitting Diode LIHTC Low Income Housing Tax Credit Low-E Low-emittance NREL National Renewable Energy Lab NZE c Net Zero Carbon NPV Net Present Value PG&E MUP Pacific Gas & Electric Multifamily Upgrade Program PV Present Value SAM System Advisor Model SEER Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio SF Square Foot Solar PV Solar Photovoltaic STD Standard YR - Year 3

4 Analysis Process

5 Retrofit Technical and Cost Benchmark Process A detailed how-to guide is available that explains key considerations and gives resources to complete each step Step 1: Determine Scope of Project Affordable multifamily buildings in greater San Francisco were analyzed for net zero carbon Step 2: Identify Appropriate Modeling Tools and Data Sets Building Energy Optimization (BEopt) and System Advisor Model (SAM) were the modeling tools used Step 3: Select Prototypical Buildings Three prototype buildings were selected: 6 unit, 15 unit, and 65 unit Step 4: Energy Conservation Measures Included envelope, lighting, HVAC, rooftop PV, offsite renewables, and appliances in analysis Step 5: Solar Analysis Used SAM to determine carbon offset of solar arrays with different efficiency and racking configurations Step 6: Utility Economics Determined utility escalation rates, typical rate structure, and carbon produced from electricity and natural gas Step 7: Financing Used a 15 and 25 year analysis period and 5% discount rate;; incentives included LIHTC, PG&E MUP, and ITC Step 8: Optimize Analysis To Hit Net Zero In The Most Cost Effective Way Used BEopt to optimize efficiency package 5

6 Modeling Tools Used BEopt was used to optimize EE measures and SAM was used to do a detailed solar analysis. Because these were done in two separate programs a degree of manual optimization was required. Building Energy Optimization (BEopt) System Advisor Model (SAM) 6

7 Defining Net Zero This analysis defined net zero as net zero carbon, which is achieved when an equivalent unit of carbon-free renewable energy is produced (on or off site) to offset each unit of fossil fuel energy used by the building. Building CO 2 Production: Electricity: 36 tons/yr Gas: 4 tons/yr Renewable CO 2 Offset: 4 tons/yr BEopt uses site energy to calculate carbon Electric: Carbon Factor:.427 lb/kwh from PG&E 213 (last verified) Gas: Carbon Factor: lb/therm from ASHRAE STD 15 7

8 Three Prototypical San Francisco Building Types The majority of affordable multifamily buildings in San Francisco were constructed prior to 198, have gas furnace heating, and are three stories or less. Category: 5-9 unit buildings Market Share + : 8.9% (~6.2K units) 6 Unit Prototype Built pre-198s 4,725 sf 3 stories Row home Furnace, no cooling* Individual gas HW heater Category: 1-19 unit buildings Market Share + : 22.5% (~16K units) 15 Unit Prototype Built pre-198s 11,27 sf 3 stories Stand alone building Furnace, no cooling* Central gas HW heater Category: 2+ unit building Market Share + : 66.2% (~46K units) 65 Unit Prototype Built pre-198s 4,9 sf 5 stories Stand alone building Central boiler, no cooling* Central gas HW heater + Greater San Francisco Bay Area has 69,857 affordable housing units * 58% of San Francisco homes use natural gas, 36% electricity according to an ACEEE 217 report 8

9 Retrofit Economics

10 Results Summary For the 6 and 15 unit prototypes, there are many existing cost-effective paths to net zero via custom retrofits. Net zero is technically feasible for 65 units, but not cost effective. 1

11 6 Unit Prototype: Analysis Key Take-aways Several retrofit paths to net zero are cost effective now. Further cost-reduction would be helpful to make the business case even more compelling. NZE c Mini-Split Retrofit Site EUI of 17.6 kbtu/sf No offsite renewables required No envelope upgrades required;; great for buildings with complex envelope Provides optional cooling Market-ready technology All electric solution 25 YR NPV* with incentives: $61,2 8.7 year simple payback period NZE c Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit Site EUI of 17.4 kbtu/sf No offsite renewables required Great for buildings that want to electrify Market-ready technology All electric solution 25 YR NPV* with incentives: $64,4 8.1 year simple payback period NZE c Envelope Retrofit Site EUI of 17.8 kbtu/sf No offsite renewables required No HVAC upgrade required;; great for buildings with recently replaced HVAC or improving aesthetics Market-ready technology 25 YR NPV* with incentives: $62,9 8.2 year simple payback period *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 11

12 15 Unit Prototype: Analysis Key Take-aways Several retrofit paths to net zero are cost effective now. Further cost-reduction would be helpful to make the business case even more compelling. NZE c Mini-Split Retrofit Site EUI of 19.5 kbtu/sf No offsite renewables required No envelope upgrades required;; great for buildings with complex envelope Provides optional cooling Market-ready technology All electric solution 25 YR NPV* with incentives: $187, 8.5 year simple payback period NZE c Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit Site EUI of 2.9 kbtu/sf No offsite renewables required Great for buildings that want to electrify Market-ready technology All electric solution 25 YR NPV* with incentives: $213, 7.1 year simple payback period NZE c Envelope Retrofit Site EUI of 2.6 kbtu/sf No offsite renewables required No HVAC upgrade required;; great for buildings with recently replaced HVAC or improving aesthetics Market-ready technology 25 YR NPV* with incentives: $189, 8.1 year simple payback period *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 12

13 65 Unit Prototype: Analysis Key Take-aways Net zero retrofits for this prototype require cost reductions in order to achieve payback during a typical investment cycle of 15 years, but are cost effective in a 25 year analysis. Site EUI is 16.8 kbtu/sf Can achieve NZE c with efficient rooftop solar PV Measures less cost effective than solar PV required to reduce load All electric solution 25 YR NPV* with incentives: $295, 14.9 year simple payback period *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.48%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 13

14 NZEc Retrofit Cost Benchmarks and Targets Benchmarks and targets were determined by averaging results from the selected net zero carbon retrofit packages for each prototype. 6 Unit Prototype 15 Unit Prototype 65 Unit Prototype Current Net Zero Carbon Retrofit Cost ($/Unit) $19,13 $22,255 $22,296 Cost With Current Incentives ($/Unit) $7,527 $8,985 $11,329 Price Point Using 25 Year Present Value* Utility Bill Savings ($/Unit) $17,997 $22,53 $12,189 Cost Reduction Required to be Paid for Through 25YR Utility Bill Savings (Without Incentives/With Incentives) 5.34% / %.9% / % 45.3% / % Price Point for 1 Year Simple Payback Period ($/Unit) $9,45 $11,371 $5,867 Cost Reduction Required for 1 Year Simple Payback Period (Without Incentives/With Incentives) 52.4% / % 48.9% / % 73.7% / 48.2% *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35% for the 6 unit prototype, 2.28% for the 15 unit prototype, and 2.48% for the 65 unit prototype. Escalation rates are a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 14

15 Technical Analysis Details

16 6 Unit Prototype: Retrofit Packages NZE c Mini-Split Retrofit No wall upgrades No roof upgrades No air sealing improvements, no mechanical ventilation added No window improvements Mini-split HP, 29.3 SEER, 14 HSPF Heat pump hot water heater, individual 1% LED lights Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink) ENERGY STAR clothes washer 17.8 kw rooftop solar PV Electric cooking range NZE c Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit R-15 wall insulation R-15 roof insulation 6 ACH5 air leakage, no mechanical vent Single pane windows Electric baseboards No cooling Heat pump hot water heater, individual 1% LED lights Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink) ENERGY STAR clothes washer 17.5 kw rooftop solar PV Electric cooking range NZE c Envelope Retrofit R-15 wall insulation R-15 roof insulation 4 ACH5 air leakage, no mechanical vent Single pane windows Keep existing furnace, natural gas, 72% AFUE No cooling Heat pump hot water heater, individual 1% LED lights Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink) ENERGY STAR clothes washer 18.2 kw rooftop solar PV Electric cooking range 16

17 6 Unit Prototype: Retrofit Package Comparison All three packages are comparable. The baseboard + envelope package would be the most cost-effective maximizing financial benefits of solar under CA NEM, with lowest total cost. However, California Energy Code discourages electric resistance heating due to cost of grid electricity during peak periods (i.e. Time Dependent Valuation), so this solution may not be permitted. 2 Gas EUI Electric EUI 8 Site EUI (kbtu/sf) NPV 15 Yr NPV 25 Yr NPV* ($) NZEc Mini-Split NZEc BB+Envelope NZEc Envelope *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 17

18 6 Unit Prototype: Cost Comparison Solar, HVAC, envelope, and hot water heater are the biggest cost drivers, and, therefore, are likely the best targets for cost savings through industrialized solutions. NZE c Mini-Split Retrofit 1% 1% 2% 6% NZE c Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit 2% Envelope 3% 5% NZE c Envelope Retrofit Envelope 4% 6% 3% 12% HW Htr* HVAC 28% Solar PV 5% 1% 6% 2% HW Htr* 13% 1% 2% 5% Solar PV 51% 6% 2% 1% 2% 1% HW Htr* 13% Solar PV 53% Solar *Htr - Heater 18

19 6 Unit Prototype: NZE c Retrofit vs. BAU With existing incentives, the NZE c retrofits are more cost effective than business as usual. Cost ($) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 25YR PV Water + Sewage Bill Cost with Incentives Roof Insulation Electric Range Low Flow Fixtures Solar PV HVAC 25YR PV Energy Bill Air Leakage Wall Insulation ENERGY STAR Clothes Washer LED HPWH Mini-split NZE c Retrofit BB + Envelope NZE c Retrofit Envelope NZE c Retrofit BAU Improvement *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 1 years 19 of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate.

20 6 Unit Prototype: ECMs Savings And Cost The most cost effective measures reduce DHW load and heating load. These independently modeled measures don t account for reduced carbon savings from interactive effects. $35, $3, Cost to Install Measure $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ Mini-split 14 HSPF HPHW LED Low flow ENERGYSTAR washer Wall R-15 Roof R-35 Window Reduce air leakage Smart Thermostat Annual Carbon Saving (Metric Tons) Note: All measures compared to baseline building with furnace. Does not take into account interactive effects of each measure. 2

21 6 Unit Prototype: Incentives Available Currently, incentives cut cost of net zero retrofit by almost two thirds. 14, 12, Cost ($) 1, 8, 6, 59% 4, 2, Solar PV EE NZE c Retrofit LIHTC (4%) PG&E MUP ITC NZE c Retrofit W/ Incentives 21

22 6 Unit Prototype: Utility Bill Savings The net zero retrofits eliminate the annual energy utility bill, except for fixed costs. 6, Gas Electric 5, Annual Utility Bill ($) 4, 3, 2, 86% 86% 83% 1, Baseline Mini-split NZE c Retrofit BB+ Envelope NZE c Retrofit Envelope NZE c Retrofit 22

23 6 Unit Prototype: Summary Mini-split Package The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle. Cost ($) 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, COST Incentives 59% Reduction NZE c Retrofit W/ Incentives Savings ($) 12, 1, 8, 6, SAVINGS PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 25* YR 4, 4, 2, Planned Update Heat Pump NZE c Retrofit Planned Update 2, PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 15* YR *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 23

24 6 Unit Prototype: Summary Baseboard Package The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle. As noted previously, this solution may not pass Title 24 Energy Code, which discourages electric resistance heating. 12, COST Incentives 12, SAVINGS Cost ($) 1, 8, 6, 61% Reduction NZE c Retrofit W/ Incentives Savings ($) 1, 8, 6, PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 25* YR 4, 4, 2, Planned Update Baseboard NZE c Retrofit Planned Update 2, PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 15* YR *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 24

25 6 Unit Prototype: Summary Envelope Package The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle. Cost ($) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, COST Incentives 61% Reduction NZE c Retrofit W/ Incentives Savings ($) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, SAVINGS PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 25* YR 2, Planned Update Baseboard NZE c Retrofit Planned Update 2, PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 15* YR *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.35%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 25

26 15 Unit Prototype: Retrofit Packages NZE c Mini-Split Retrofit R-12 Wall Insulation No roof upgrades No air sealing improvements, no mechanical ventilation added No window improvements Mini-split HP, 29.3 SEER, 14 HSPF Smart thermostat Heat pump hot water heater, central 1% LED lights Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink) ENERGY STAR clothes washer Electric cooking range 51.9 kw rooftop solar PV NZE c Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit R-12 wall insulation R-15 roof insulation No air sealing improvements, no mechanical ventilation added No window improvements Electric baseboards No cooling Heat pump hot water heater, individual 1% LED lights Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink) ENERGY STAR clothes washer Electric cooking range 55.6 kw rooftop solar PV NZE c Envelope Retrofit R-15 wall insulation R-15 roof insulation 5 ACH5 air leakage, no mechanical vent No window improvements Keep existing furnace, natural gas, 72% AFUE No cooling Heat pump hot water heater, individual 1% LED lights Low flow water fixtures (1.8 gpm shower, 1.5 gpm sink) ENERGY STAR clothes washer Electric cooking range 55.6 kw rooftop solar PV 26

27 15 Unit Prototype: Retrofit Package Comparison All three packages are comparable. The baseboard + envelope package would be the most cost-effective maximizing financial benefits of solar under CA Net Energy Metering, with lowest total cost. However, California Energy Code discourages electric resistance heating due to cost of grid electricity during peak periods (i.e. Time Dependent Valuation), so this solution may not be permitted. 25 Gas EUI NPV 15 Yr Electricity EUI NPV 25 Yr 25, 2 2, Site EUI (kbtu/sf) , 1, 5, NPV* ($) Mini-split NZEc BB + Envelope NZEc Envelope NZEc *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 27

28 15 Unit Prototype: Cost Breakdown Solar, HVAC, and envelope are the biggest cost drivers, and, therefore, are likely the best targets for cost savings through industrialized solutions. NZE c Mini-Split Retrofit 2% 5% 3% 1%1% 11% 2% Envelope NZE c Baseboard + Envelope Retrofit 12% 3% NZE c Envelope Retrofit 1% 2% 5% 1% 9% Envelope 13% 1% 9% 23% HVAC Solar PV 52% Solar 5% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% Solar PV 61% Solar PV 57% 28

29 15 Unit Prototype: NZE c Retrofit vs. BAU With current incentives, the NZE c retrofits are more cost effective than business as usual. Cost ($) 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 25YR PV Water + Sewage Bill Cost with Incentives Roof Insulation Electric Range Low Flow Fixtures Solar PV HVAC Mini-split NZE c Retrofit BB + Envelope NZE c Retrofit 25YR PV Energy Bill Air Leakage Wall Insulation ENERGY STAR Clothes Washer LED HPWH Envelope NZE c Retrofit BAU Improvement *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 29

30 15 Unit Prototype: EE With Furnace Baseline The most cost effective measures reduce DHW load and heating load. These independently modeled measures don t account for reduced carbon savings from interactive effects. $1, $9, Cost to Install Measure $8, $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, HP 14 HSPF HPHW LED Low Flow ENERGYSTAR Washer Wall R-12 Roof R-35 Window 3 ACH5 Smart Thermostat $1, $ Annual Carbon Saving (Metric Tons) Note: All measures compared to baseline building with furnace. Does not take into account interactive effects of each measure. 3

31 15 Unit Prototype: Incentives Available Current incentives drastically reduce the cost of net zero retrofits. 4, 35, Cost ($) 3, 25, 2, 15, 58% 1, 5, Solar PV EE NZ Retrofit LIHTC (4%) PG&E MUP ITC NZ Retrofit W/ Incentives 31

32 15 Unit Prototype: Utility Bill Savings The net zero retrofits eliminate the annual energy utility bill except for fixed costs. 18, Gas Electric Annual Utility Bill ($) 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 89% 89% 86% 4, 2, Baseline Mini-split NZE c Retrofit BB+ Envelope NZE c Retrofit Envelope NZE c Retrofit 32

33 15 Unit Prototype: Summary Mini-split Package The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle. COST SAVINGS Cost ($) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, Incentives 58% Reduction NZ Retrofit W/ Incentives Savings ($) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 25* YR 1, 1, 5, Planned Updates NZ Retrofit Planned Updates 5, PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 15* YR *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 33

34 15 Unit Prototype: Summary Baseboard Package The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle. As noted previously, this solution may not pass Title 24 Energy Code, which discourages electric resistance heating. Cost ($) 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Planned Updates NZ Retrofit COST Incentives 61% Reduction NZ Retrofit W/ Incentives Planned Updates Savings ($) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, SAVINGS PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 15* YR *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. NPV 25* YR 34

35 15 Unit Prototype: Summary Envelope Package The NPV of the net zero retrofit will result in positive savings in the typical 15 year investment cycle. COST SAVINGS Cost ($) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, Incentives 6% Reduction NZ Retrofit W/ Incentives Savings ($) 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 25* YR 1, 1, 5, Planned Updates NZ Retrofit Planned Updates 5, PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 15* YR *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.28%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 35

36 65 Unit Prototype: Retrofit Package Baseline Building Masonry walls, uninsulated 2x6 wood framed roof 7 ACH5 air leakage, no mechanical vent Single pane windows Central hot water boiler serving radiators No cooling Non-programmable thermostat Hot water heater, natural gas, central 67% incandescent, 33% CFL lights Standard water fixtures (2.5 gpm shower, 2.2 gpm sink) Conventional appliances Gas cooking range Proposed Net-Zero Retrofit R-15 continuous exterior insulation R-35 roof 4 ACH5 air leakage, no mechanical vent Low-E, double pane windows Minisplit HP, 29.3 SEER, 14 HSPF Smart thermostat Heat pump hot water heater, central 1% LED lights Low flow water fixtures ENERGY STAR clothes washer ENERGY STAR refrigerator Heat pump dryer Electric induction cooking range 167 kw rooftop solar PV or 28, kwh from community choice aggregator 36

37 65 Unit Prototype: Cost Breakdown Solar, HVAC, envelope, and appliances are the biggest cost drivers, and, therefore, are likely the best targets for cost savings through industrialized solutions. 2% Appliances 15% Envelope 26% Solar PV 33% HVAC 2% Solar PV Mini Split HPWH LED Low Flow Fixtures Appliances Smart Thermostat Envelope 1% 1% 2% 37

38 65 Unit Prototype: NZE c Retrofit vs. BAU The NZE c retrofits are comparable to business as usual during the life of the retrofit package. Cost ($) 4,5, 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, 25YR PV Water + Sewage Bill Cost with Incentives Smart Thermostat LED Mini Split Appliances NZE c Retrofit W/ Rooftop Solar NZE c Retrofit W/ Offsite Renewables 25YR PV Energy Bill Solar PV Low Flow Fixtures HPWH Envelope BAU Improvement *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.48%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 38

39 65 Unit Prototype: ECMs Savings And Cost The most cost effective measures reduce DHW load and heating load. These independently modeled measures don t account for reduced carbon savings from interactive effects. $4, Cost to Install Measure $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, HP 29.3 SEER HPHW LED Low Flow ENERGYSTAR Washer Wall R-15 Roof R-35 Window Air Leakage Smart Thermostat $ Annual Carbon Saving (Metric Tons) Note: All measures compared to baseline building with furnace. Does not take into account interactive effects of each measure. 39

40 65 Unit Prototype: Incentives with Rooftop PV Incentives cut the cost of a net zero retrofit by half. 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 51% Cost ($) 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Solar PV EE NZE c Retrofit LIHTC (4%) PG&E MUP ITC NZE c Retrofit W/ Incentives 4

41 65 Unit Prototype: Renewable Program vs. Rooftop Solar PV CleanPowerSF allows for lower upfront costs and rooftop solar PV provides lower total cost of ownership. Approach 1: Rooftop Photovoltaics Using this approach requires investment in deep energy efficiency measures and rooftop solar Approach 2: CleanPowerSF (Offsite Renewables) CleanPowerSF avoids upfront cost of rooftop PV, creating a fairly easy path to NZE c even in high rise buildings, but adds ~2 cents/kwh to utility bill 41

42 65 Unit Prototype: Energy Utility Bill Renewable power programs almost eliminate utility bill savings from energy efficiency. 1% Renewable Electric 6, Gas Annual Utility Bill ($) 5, 4, 3, 2, Electric 85% 11% 1, Baseline Fixed costs Proposed with Rooftop Solar PV Proposed with CleanPowerSF 42

43 65 Unit Prototype: Summary Rooftop Solar PV The NPV of the net zero retrofit will not break even in the typical 15 year investment cycle, but saves money over life of the retrofit. COST SAVINGS Cost ($) 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, Incentives 51% Reduction NZE c Retrofit W/ Incentives Savings ($) 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 25* YR 2, BAU NZE c Retrofit BAU -2, PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 15* YR *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.48%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 43

44 65 Unit Prototype: Summary Offsite Renewables Although CleanPowerSF allows for lower upfront costs, the reduction in energy savings make it far less cost effective than rooftop solar PV. COST SAVINGS Cost ($) 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, BAU NZE c Retrofit Incentives 47% Reduction NZE c Retrofit W/ Incentives BAU Savings ($) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, -1, -2, -3, -4, PV 15* YR Utility Bill Savings PV 25* YR Utility Bill Savings NPV 25* YR NPV 15* YR *Energy savings PV calculated using a 5% discount rate and an escalation rate of 2.48%, which is a blended average based on 1 years of gas and electric escalation in California from the EIA. 25 years selected as life of retrofit package. 15 years selected as typical investment cycle for affordable housing. Water and sewage savings calculated assuming 5% discount rate and 5% escalation rate. 44