Demand Simulation for Water, Food Irrigation, and Energy from Micro Hydro Power Plant in Sungai Bayang, Bayang Utara, Pesisir Selatan West Sumatra

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1 ES Web of Cferences, () ASTECHNOVA Demand Simulati for Water, Food Irrigati, and Energy from Micro Hydro ower lant in Sungai Bayang, Bayang Utara, esisir Selatan West Sumatra Siti Nurlaila Indriani,*, Ahmad Agus Setiawan, and Rachmawan Budiarto Dept of Nuclear Engineering and Engineering hysics, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indesia Abstract Clean water or fresh water, food and energy are basic human needs The three basic needs are dependent to e another The relatiship between the three is called the "The nexus of Water, Energy, and Food" It requires good governance watershed which will be implemented for example to manage water resources to fulfil demand of clean or drinking water, irrigati in food area and energy sources in hydro power plant This study cducted analysis and simulati to prepare projecti of electricity produced by Micro hydro ower lant (MH) It integrates a climate change scenarios to forecast its influence electricity demand and respse of river In additi, the study also presented projectis of influence irrigated food producti scenario in irrigati for rice paddy fields rojecti of The MH electricity and the water demand including for the food sector is cducted by using the (Water Evaluati and lanning) software, while electricity demand forecast is cducted by applying the LEA (LgRange Energy Alternatives lanning) software The case studies in this study cducted in river flows Bayang s River On the river there are three operating MHs: The Muaro Aie MH (ity kw of installed capac), The Koto Ranah MH ( kw) and The ancuang Taba MH ( kw) The LEA simulati projected electricity demand for esisir Selatan until Demand for South esisir Regency up to is predicted to reach GWh with growth of % per year in BAU scenario, while reach GWh with a % annual growth in efficiency scenario The provided projected electricity producti of MH, basic water needs and irrigati needs for paddy fields in District IV Nagari Bayang Utara until The MH electricity producti in final year of projecti with BAU scenario reaches GWh, while with a climate change scenario of GWh The electricity demand fulfilled by MH is predicted to be % in the BAU scenario, % in climate change scenarios, and % in the electricity savings scenario Of the three MH, the MH ancuang Taba is the most vulnerable to climate change, while MH Koto Ranah shows relatively lower fluctuati The highest staple water requirement is for ancuang Taba which is thousand m The growth of staple water needs until tends to be cstant and most rice irrigati needs are in agriculture of thousand m The growth of irrigati needs of Bayang watershed until tends to be cstant Most irrigati needs for paddy fields are in irrigati area of Agriculture reaching, m The growth of irrigati needs in Bayang watershed tends to be cstant roblem Statement Clean water or fresh water, food and energy are basic human needs Without all of it, people will not be able to live properly The three basic needs are also interdependent with each other In a certain situati, the scarcity of energy will affect water supply This is because to produce water (with desalinati) requires large amounts of energy, for example for desalinati, wastewater treatment, water distributi (pumps), and others Cversely, to produce energy is also needed water, for example MH (Micro Hydro ower lant) On the other hand, water scarcity will obviously cause food scarcity Similarly, food scarcity will cause the standard of human life to decline, thus affecting the quality of work, for example in the energy industry sector The relatiship between these three is called "The nexus of Water, Energy, and Food" (red: water relatis, energy / electricity, food) [] The rapid growth of the world's populati causes the world's water resources to become e of the most * Correspding author: snindriani@gmailcom The Authors, published by ED Sciences This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Comms Attributi License (

2 ES Web of Cferences, () ASTECHNOVA important assets Water is essential for human csumpti and sanitati, for the producti of various industrial goods as well as for the producti of food and fibre fabrics Water demand for irrigati is increasing to meet the needs of human food Carebased design and careful management are essential to achieve water utilizati efficiency [] The water source of the river is not ly to meet basic needs of basic water and food needs in the form of irrigated rice fields and fields, but also used as a source of MH use Ultimately this led to the need for governance management of watershed use to be used for basic water needs, food irrigati, and MH power sources Water cannot escape from a water source, e of the water sources is a river Rivers exist in different regis of the hemisphere Water from various places flows into the river that will be forwarded to the sea Watershed is a regi the surface of the earth where there is a water system csisting of the main river and some of its subsidiaries (Ritter ) Watershed geometry that affects runoff is the size, shape, slope, orientati, elevati and river density (Shelt ) Meanwhile, several physical properties of watersheds that also affect the use of land and land cover, surface infiltrati, soil type, permeability, water capacity and the presence or absence of lakes and swamps River properties such as size, shape, stroke and length affect the capacity of river stores and determine peak discharge times (Shelt ) [] Climate change is a threat to the earth, because it can affect all aspects of life that will affect the balance of life of the earth Climate change is the occurrence of changes in atmospheric cditis, such as temperature, and weather that causes an uncertain cditi [] The rise in temperature will cause the expansi of water masses and sea levels Climate change will also affect hydrological systems such as watersheds and river flows Irrigati has been de by farmers in Indesia since time immemorial by using streams of creeks These small irrigati networks are built by using watersheds to irrigate fields and fields that will meet food needs Food demand is influenced by the ability of the regis to provide food resources, because from the graph, rice imports from time to time increase So that water, energy, and food needs can be obtained from e resource, that is river water resource In the Natial Energy olicy residential Regulati no of with the aim to direct efforts to realize the security of supply (energy of supply) to support sustainable development, which is expected by the year will be achieved target energy elasticity The elasticity of energy is the ratio between the growth rate of energy csumpti and the rate of ecomic growth Therefore, the energy cservati program to obtain ecomic growth, poverty reducti, envirmental sustainability, energy security with the basic pattern of energy efficiency supported by the regulati in the field of energy cservati Water energy is included in the category of Natural Resources that can be renewable Development of Renewable ower Generators is a priority because renewable energy can be available throughout the ages The analysis study of how the river relates to energy generati, about how water resources management, about the nexus of water, energy, food a macro scale, and the predicti of electricity needs, general energy needs using Lgrange Energy Alternative lanning (LEA) applicatis and the predicti of the producti of solar and electric power plants using LEA In a microscale review, e or more watersheds covering an area can be managed to be potential water resources to meet the community's need for water resources Needs that can be managed are basic water needs, water needs for irrigati fields as food sources and energy needs that can be obtained from micro hydro power plants Furthermore, predictis of electricity demand, basic water sources and water for food irrigati can be obtained rojecti of the demand for electricity, water source and water for irrigati will also be obtained Similarly, climate change scenarios that will affect the fulfilment of any need will be obtained So, it is expected that the management of water resources maximally to meet the nexus of water, food, and energy in an area can be de Subdistrict IV Nagari Bayang Utara is located in esisir Selatan Regency, West Sumatera rovince River Basin Batang is located in District IV Nagari Bayang Utara This research is a follow up study MH and the integrated waterenergy management scenario in esisir Selatan Regency, West Sumatera This area is chosen because there is e flow that has more than e MH, also the availability of data, because there are rain gauge statis in the river and in Tarusan River which is adjacent to Bayang River which can be used as data, and then easy access to the locati This locati can be said to be quite remote, plus the local people use direct river water to meet water needs, so the watershed is a vital source of life for the surrounding community Thus, good watershed management is an important issue for this regi [] Figures and tables This study projected the MH electricity producti under climate change scenarios and integrated the demand for electricity demand In additi, projecti of food producti with irrigati and irrigati field scenarios is predicted with demand for food and basic water needs MH projecti and food irrigati needs are carried out using (Water Evaluati and lanning) software, whereas electricity demand predicti is de using LEA (Lgrange Energy Alternatives lanning) software

3 ES Web of Cferences, () ASTECHNOVA The locati of this research is Sub district IV Nagari Bayang Utara located in esisir Selatan Regency, West Sumatera rovince River Basin Batang is located in District IV Nagari Bayang Utara This research is a follow up study MH and the integrated waterenergy management scenario in esisir Selatan Regency, West Sumatera This area is chosen because there is e flow that has more than e MH, also the availability of data, because there are rain gauge statis in the river and in Tarusan River which is adjacent to Bayang River which can be used as data, and then easy access to the locati This locati can be said to be quite remote, plus the local people use direct river water to meet water needs, so the watershed is a vital source of life for the surrounding community Thus, good watershed management is an important issue for this regi Flowchart research steps can be seen in Figure below Start Literature Review LEA modelling steps generally csist of five stages: problem definiti, system cceptualizati, model representati, model evaluati, and policy analysis The simulati of water availability is de by using software The method used in this simulati is based the trend approach Hydrological modelling is de by incorporating climatological data over the last years to see the trend of climate factors Before carrying out the simulati of water availability using, firstly analyse the mainstay discharge Calculati of reliable debit is de using Mock Method By following the following stages: otential Evapotranspirati Calculati (ETo), Calculati of Basic Water Requirement, Calculati of Irrigati Water Requirement In this research, calculati of debit is de by using soil moisture method This method uses data of rainfall and mthly climatology as input data The data is then processed to produce the output of evapotranspirati, discharge, and storage of ground water Water availability calculati scheme by is shown in Figure below: Locati Study Data Collecti Fig Research flowchart Results Scenario Analysis Writing Finish LEA Simulati Energy demand simulati is de by using LEA software The method used in this simulati is based the enduse model The equati used as the analysis with the energy intensity variables and the number of csumers as unit activity level Fig calculati scheme The implementati phase of water availability simulati with is as follows: Basic parameters The first step in the simulati is to set and determine the basic parameters of the simulati In the basic parameters, the scope of work is determined the catchment and the MH (resource) The next step is to determine the base year of simulati In this study used as the base year is, based the data held as the basis for calculati After that, the final limit of the simulati period is determined in The last is to determine the units used such as energy units, debit units, and area Schematic The secd stage after setting the basic parameters is to create a schematic view of the watershed system or stream to be modelled To help draw the river and display the positi of certain sites such as hydropower, wastewater treatment, groundwater storage, etc, users can enter GISbased maps as the basic screen in In this study, which became the basic screen is a map of

4 ES Web of Cferences, () ASTECHNOVA West Sumatra that ctained the river and the locati of the MH to be assessed The next step is to redraw the river and put the MH according to the layer that has been displayed Figure Shows the view schematic view in this research Fig Schematic view Catchments Catchments are part of a branch that serves to model the watershed to be studied As the basis of the simulati, first e of the calculati method, based the data owned Watershed modelling in this research using Soil Moisture Method After determining the calculati method, hereinafter is entering data in current account cditi that is base year cditi (base year) The base year used is, so the initial input written in the expressi secti is based the data of that year In this study, the available data is ly sufficient to meet the Land use and Climate categories The data included in the Land use category is the watershed area for each MH As for the Climate category, climatological data required are rainfall data, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiati Evapotranspirati in was calculated using the enmannmteith equati, whereas the discharge was calculated by equati Supply Analysis Supply Analysis is a branch that determines the characteristics of calculating the value of water availability In this study water availability is calculated to generate electricity at three MHs To model the MH system, technical data ie effective head and turbine efficiency data are included to calculate the producti of electricity generated factually InputOutput Research The data used in this study are summarized in Table below: Table Data input and output LEA & Calculati Energy Demand Debit lant Irrigatio n Basic Water Require ment MH Electricit y roducti Input Energy Intensity Electricity Csumpti Total opulati Electricity Customers DRB Temperatu re Humidity Wind Velocity Sun Radiati Evapotrans pirati Rainfall Watershed Area Harvest crop producti area of harvest number of cropping cycles per year rainfall crop water requiremen ts opulati Debit Head MH Assumpti The annual solar radiati is cstant against the earth Soil moisture coefficient (RRF = ) Numbers of groundwater catch (SMC = mm) No land use change planting cycles per year based crop cycle theory prevailing in Indesian society crop water requirements calculated from Kc ideal water requirement liter / day / pers The efficiency of MH system is csidered cstant MH works hours / year Softw are LEA LEA & Output Energy Csu mti Evapotr anspirat i Debit Irrigati water volume Volum e of staple water ower

5 ES Web of Cferences, () ASTECHNOVA There are two statis that record rainfall and climatology data the Bayang basin Both statis are located different subwatersheds, but can represent climatological cditis that affect the flow of the river (shaft) of Shadow The locati of the stati is shown in Table Table Rainfall mitoring and climatology statis Stati Coordinat SubDAS, LS Danau /, Diatas BT Tarusan LS / BT Bt Bujanggadang & Bt Bayanggadang Bt Bayangnyalo Rainfall and climatology data used in the calculati is in the form of mthly data for the last years ( ) The rainfall chart both statis is shown in Figure Fig Output of electricity demand In the BAU scenario, there is a very sharp increase in electricity demand side By, electricity demand is projected to be at GWh, whereas in electricity demand was at GWh This means that within the next years, electricity demand is predicted to grow to % or almost times In terms of water availability, the trend approach is used to predict watershed cditis and sub the next years This trend approach is used in the BAU scenario with the assumpti that there is no significant land use change and the MH remains functiing normally during the projecti year The electricity producti of each MH is shown in Figure, While the overall MH electricity producti until is shown in Figure On the graph shows that MH ancuang Taba is relatively more susceptible to fluctuati of debit compared to Muaro Air and Koto Ranah MH The fluctuati of the discharge that occurs is influenced by the variati of rainfall in that period Hydropower Generati Scenario: Business as Usual, All mths () Koto Ranah Muaro Air ancuang Taba Fig Rainfall chart both statis The rainfall graph shows the variability of rainfall events per mth both statis In the Diatas lake stati data, there are three times extreme rainfall events exceeding mm in e mth While at the data stati Tarusan, the highest rainfall ly reached about mm Average rainfall per year both statis is mm for the Lake Diatas stati, and for the Tarusan stati Other input data are temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiati Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario BAU scenario is a ctinuati of the trend that occurred in previous years, both in terms of electricity demand and water availability In terms of electricity demand, since there was an average growth of % The projected output of electricity demands up to with a cstant growth rate is shown in Figure Gigajoule Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Fig The electricity producti of each MH In the projecti of electricity MH BAU scenario there are several times a significant decrease in electricity producti, amg others in the period January May, March June, and August December MH ancuang Taba power producti decreased drastically and MH Muaro Water is reduced by % This is due to the occurrence of dry seas in the period of norainy upstream periods recorded in,,,, and The simulati results show the flowing discharge at the Bt Subwatershed Bayanggadang and Bt Bujanggadang is below the m / s

6 ES Web of Cferences, () ASTECHNOVA Fluctuating electricity producti is also predicted to occur in the year This can happen if the rainfall cditis that occur is a repetiti of rainfall in & where mthly rainfall changed in the extreme Annual electricity producti is shown in Figure Decrease in the discharge that occurred in several periods also influence the decrease of electricity producti In this scenario of BAU, the decrease of MH electricity producti is predicted to occur in,, and The highest electricity producti occurs in which reaches, GWh, while the lowest electricity producti occurs in of, GWh Electricity producti in (the end of the projecti) is predicted to be GWh Gigajoule,,,,,,,,,,,, Hydropower Generati Scenario: Trend, All mths () Fig Annual electricity producti Koto Ranah Muaro Air ancuang Taba The projecti of electricity generati by MH is then compared with the projecti of electricity demand of esisir Selatan regency So that the electrical producti data from It can be exported in the form of excel to facilitate the calculati Electrical producti is then divided by electricity demand in Figure From LEA which can also be exported into excel form and then the result can be seen in graphic form This comparis will result in the percentage of electricity demand fulfilled as shown in the graph in Figure projectis In, MH is able to generate electricity by GWh or % of total electricity demand for the year However, by, MH will ly generate GWh of electricity or % of total electricity demand for the year Calculati of the percentage of electricity csumpti can be seen in Table Electr icity Cs umpti Electr icity rodu cti Fulfill ment (%) Table Electricity csumpti percentage In Schematic, basic water requirement is assumed as Demand, Demand, and Demand Demand is the staple water requirement of ancung Taba populati, Demand is the main requirement of drinking water of Muaro Aie, whereas Demand is the basic need of drinking water Residents of Koto Ranah area To enter the value of the basic water needs, data the number of residents of ancung Taba, Muaro Aie and Koto Ranah are multiplied by the amount of water required in e day, liters then multiplied by days, the water needs of the three regis in the period One year In Figure, can be seen input data entered in Demand, Demand, and Demand Fig Data entered in Demand, Demand, and Demand Fig Fulfilment of electricity requirements The percentage of electricity demand fulfilled by MH shows a downward trend until This is due to the demand of electricity itself which ctinues to increase to GWh or by % in the final year of Irrigati water demand can be used as a demand that will be calculated for planting water requirement for each plant in m / Ha Data to be included in the form of land area and water volume requirement within e year Because the required data is the land area of Nagari ancung Taba, Muaro Aie, and Koto Ranah, so to find the planting area of each nagari obtained from the percentage of the area multiplied by the total planting area of North Bayang District In this simulati

7 ES Web of Cferences, () ASTECHNOVA The water requirements of the plants to be simulated are for the needs of rice and palawija To find the rice cultivati area and the crops of each Nagari is obtained by multiplying the percentage of Nagari area compared to the area of North Bayang then multiplied by the total area of rice harvest and the crops As for the water requirement rice according to the Ministry of Agriculture is at least m / Ha which is then multiplied times the planting time within a year As for the crops of palawija according to the Ministry of Agriculture, requires m / Ha for water planting purposes, which will be taken the middle value between the two is m / Ha Next will be multiplied also with times the planting time in a year For rice and palawija, it is an almost equal standard in Indesia if it has average planting time times a year In Figure can be seen all the demand required in simulati, namely the demand of water staple named Demand, Demand, and Demand Then the demand for rice irrigati is called Agriculture, Agriculture, and Agriculture Then the demand of the crops Called Irrigati, Irrigati, and Irrigati Fig Demand required in simulatti Cclusi Based the research that has been de, it can be ccluded as follows: Demand for South esisir Regency up to is predicted to reach GWh with growth of % per year in BAU scenario; And GWh with a % annual growth in efficiency scenario MH electricity producti in final year of projecti () with BAU scenario is GWh; While with a climate change scenario of GWh The electricity demand fulfilled in by MH is predicted to be ly % in the BAU scenario; % in climate change scenarios; And % in the electricity savings scenario Of the three MH, MH ancuang Taba is the most vulnerable to climate change, while MH Koto Ranah is relatively more stable The highest staple water requirement is at Demand ie ancuang Taba which is thousand m The growth of staple water needs until tends to be cstant Most rice irrigati needs are in Agriculture of thousand m The growth of irrigati needs of Bayang watershed until tends to be cstant The most irrigati needs of rice is in Irrigati of thousand m The growth of irrigati needs of Bayas watershed until tends to be cstant References The Water, food, and energy nexus Linsley, ay K, Joseph B Franzini, dan Djoko Sasgko Teknik Sumber Daya Air Erlangga, Jakarta, Setiawan, Dodi Kajian engaruh erubahan Iklim dan Tata Guna Lahan di Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Citarum Hulu terhadap embangkit Listrik Tenaga Air Saguling Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu engetahuan Alam, Institut ertanian Bogor, Bogor, Napitupupu, Janter Jurnal embangkit Listrik Tenaga Mini Hidro (LTM) dalam engelolaan Energi Hijau Universitas Darma Agung, Medan Blueprint engelolaan Energi Nasial Jakarta, Welsch, M, dkk Adding Value with CLEWS Modelling The Energy System and Its Interpendencies for Mauritius Hal September, Anugrah, royeksi embangkitan Listrik Tenaga Mikro Hidro dengan Skenario Manajemen Air Energi yang Terintegrasi di Kabupaten esisir Selatan, Sumatera Barat Skripsi hal, Jurusan Teknik Fisika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Handayani, Wuri, dan Indrajaya, Yky Analisis Curah Hujan dan Debit Suib Sub DAS Ngatabaru, Sulawesi Tengah Hal Juli,

8 ES Web of Cferences, () ASTECHNOVA Bazilian, Morgan, dkk Csidering The Energy, Water, and Food Nexus: Towards an Integrated Modelling Approach Hal Oktober, Wijaya, ME eningkatan Keamanan asokan Jangka anjang Sistem erluasan erencanaan Listrik JawaBaliMadura di Indesia Hal Desember,