Community Climate Adaptation Planning. Durham Region s Emergent Approach

Transcription

1 Community Climate Adaptation Planning Durham Region s Emergent Approach Brian Kelly, Manager of Sustainability, Region of Durham Climate Change: What can we do in Hamilton? May 12,

2 Outline 1. Climate Change: One Wicked Problem 2. Durham s Climate Mitigation Plan 3. Durham s emerging Climate Adaptation Plan 4. The Durham difference Objectives: To outline Durham s Community Local Action Plan (mitigation) To outline Durham Region s emerging approach to Community Climate Adaptation planning To contrast our approach to that of others To offer learnings for Hamilton from Durham s experiences to date 2

3 Climate Change: One Wicked Problem Global not local The Science is complex (but now much more consensus) Causes and effects separated by time and space leads and lags (leads now shorter and lags longer) developed countries vs developing countries Mitigation and Adaptation Requires silver buckshot Threatens the very future of civilization ( The battle of our lives ) Challenges values and belief systems (polarizing) Challenges the future of the fossil fuel industry (Currently 80% of global energy supply) The Mother of all environmental issues

4 Leadership for Sustainability The question of sustainability is not about if we will have enough energy, enough food * or other tangible resources those we have. The question is: whether we will have enough leaders in time. Dr. Karl Henrik Robert Founder of The Natural Step Leadership: a commodity in very short supply

5 DRRCC Goal: DRRCC Mandate To position the Region of Durham as a leader in addressing climate change issues by preparing and recommending a comprehensive strategy with detailed actions that can be undertaken across the Region to address climate change. DRRCC Vision: Durham Region is a carbon neutral, sustainable, prosperous and resilient community with a high quality of life Adaptation Sub Committee mandate is to identify: projected future climate & weather conditions; key vulnerabilities, impacts & management strategies to safeguard infrastructure; economic impacts (and opportunities); how a more resilient region can attract new business. 5

6 Local Action Plan Process

7 Background: LAP Phase 1 Report Vision: Durham Region is a carbon neutral, sustainable, prosperous and resilient community with a high quality of life. Community Targets: 5% reduction in GHG emissions by % reduction in GHG emissions by % reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 (absolute targets, measured against 2007 baseline emissions) Developed during 2010 based on stakeholder input over summer Adopted by Regional Council on March 9, 2011

8 Phase 2 Progress Report Resulted from Design Charette Progress Report released July 29/11 Identified 23 Action Plan Concepts (APCs) Stakeholder and public review for 60 days Consolidated to 17 APCs + an 18 th education APC Presentations to business stakeholders over fall of 2011 Early approval of Durham Partners in Project Green (DPPG) Dec. 14/11

9 Community Local Action Plan Rationale for Local Action Context and Background: Emissions Inventory Vision Mission Targets Process 18 Potential Programs (one approved to date, second this week) Impacts and Co Benefits Implementation Strategies Adaptation Next Steps

10 Potential Programs in the LAP Durham Partners in Project Green Comprehensive Residential Retrofit Green Affordable Housing Durham Green Building Guideline Smart Grid Initiative* Offshore Wind Power Generation Durham Mini Deep Lake Water Cooling Durham Biofuels Program Bio Methane Production and Use Local Food Hub Urban Agriculture Program Farm Friendly Regulations Durham Five Million Trees Active Transportation and Transit* Durham Freecycle Program Durham Green Procurement Guideline Community Climate Fund Climate Education Program (to be approved tomorrow)

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13 DO THE MATH 2 C : The maximum global rise in average temperature that still gives us a 50% probability of avoiding climate destabilization Pre-industrial base: 280 ppm of CO2 Now: +0.8 C = 400 ppm By 2030: +2 C = 450 ppm 16 years left By 2100: +4-6 C = 750-1,200 ppm 565 gigatons: CO2 we can add before we reach 450 ppm. 2,795 gigatons: CO2 in proven fossil fuel reserves. 5 X what we can add Therefore 80% of the proven reserves must stay in the ground; stranded asset risk for fossil fuel companies. 350.org 13

14 What is Climate Adaptation? Climate mitigation is protecting the atmosphere from us; climate adaptation is protecting us from the atmosphere. The goal of adaptation is to prepare, protect and safeguard us and our infrastructure. Some adaptation measures can be both adaptation and mitigation (e.g. tree planting, white roofs, green roofs). No cynicism allowed (as in: Well, I won t be around for that.. )

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16 Adaptation Planning Process Options: 1. Follow the ICLEI Process 2. Follow the Toronto process (e.g. WeatherWise Partnership) 3. Develop a hybrid process for Durham Our motto: Imitation is the highest form of flattery.

17 CCAP Process: 6 Steps 1. Future Climate Parameters (SENES Study) : What are the climate conditions we are planning for? Where is the climate puck going to be? 2. Stakeholder Engagement: Who are the key stakeholders and what are their initial thoughts? 3. Expert Task Forces (March, April & May): What are the impacts, vulnerabilities, risks and responsive actions? 4. Design Charette: How do the various streams integrate into one plan with proposed programs? 5. Proposed CCAP (DRRCC, Sept. 12) 6. Recommended CCAP (Regional Council, Fall 2014) What is the plan and the proposed programs?

18 Step 1: Future Climate Projections SENES Consultants was commissioned to project future climate and extremes for Durham region (based on extensive study done for Toronto in 2011) Remember our motto: Imitation is the highest form of flattery. Basis for confidence in projections include: The model is based on established scientific principals. Model is able to reproduce observed changes in climate. The model resolution is very high (1 km x 1 km cells). The model projects both averages and extremes. 18

19 Projections Model (SENES) Report of climate and extreme weather projections for timeframe compared to Model provides projections not predictions (consistent with IPCC) because it is not possible to know what future emissions of GHG will actually be. Model based on IPCC emissions scenario A1B. The scope of the SENES study is: all eight local municipalities in the Region of Durham: Ajax, Brock (Beaverton), Clarington (Bowmanville), Oshawa, Pickering, Scugog (Port Perry), Uxbridge (Town of Uxbridge), Whitby parameters of temperature & precipitation with surrogates for lightning and combined parameters for tornadoes. both climate means and weather extremes were included. 19

20 Temperature Changes Whitby average annual temperatures increase of 4.0 o C average winter temperatures increase by 5.8 o C average summer temperatures increase by 2.6 o C extreme daily minimum temperature "becomes less cold" by 12 o C extreme daily maximum temperature "becomes warmer" by 7.1 o C 20

21 Precipitation Changes Whitby The following summarizes the projected climate changes for Whitby for the future period ( ) compared with the base period ( ): Less snow and more rain in winter about 16% more precipitation (snow and rainfall) overall. 50% increase in one day maximum rainfall 40% decline in one day maximum snow 100% increase in number of days of rain greater than 25 mm 80% reduction in the number of days with snow more than 5 cm 146% more rain and 61% less snow in January 217% more rain and 75% less snow in February Rainstorm events will be more extreme 15% increase in the potential for violent storms 53% increase in the potential for tornadoes 74% more rain in July 79% more rain in August 21

22 Heat & Humidity Duration and Frequency Higher temperatures in summer (2000s to 2040s) t max >30 C: 3 days/year to 16.8 days/year (greatest increase Uxbridge, Port Perry and Beaverton 4.8 days to 25.8 days) T max >35 C: 0 days/year to 1 4 days/year T max > 40 C: 0 days/year, to 0.14 days/year More frequent heat waves ( to ) > 30 C more than 2 days : events/year to 3.9 events/year (greatest increase in Uxbridge, Port Perry and Beaverton of average 7.5 events/year) > 40 C more than 2 days : 0 events/year to 0.1 events/year (Uxbridge only 0.1 average) Humidex > than 40 C eq. (great discomfort) projected increase from 3 to 17 events/year. greater than dangerous level (45 C eq.): 0 to 3.2 events/year (greatest potential being in Uxbridge, Port Perry, Beaverton). Peak humidex in Whitby in 2040s: 51 C eq 22

23 Summary of Climate Projections Tornadoes Increased potential for tornadoes EHI (energy helicity index) 53% increase in Whitby (days/10 years) EHI >=1; 150 to 172 days; EHI >=2; 37 to 54 days, EHI >=3; 9 to 16 days; EHI >=4; 3 to 5 days; EHI >=5; 0 to 4 days) 23% increase across Durham Uxbridge, Port Perry, and Beaverton continuing to be most susceptible EHI of 1 represents supercell potential; 1 5 represents F2/F3 potential, EHI of 5+ represents F4/5 potential (Goderich was an F3); 23

24 High Level Summary of Climate Projections Higher temperatures 4 C avg; higher in winter Less snow and more rain (esp. July & Aug) Increased number of days of heavy rain (>50mm in 6 hours) from 1.5 events/year to 5.3 events/year with the greatest increase occurring in Port Perry: 0.9 to 9 /year Rain storm events more frequent and severe; potential for violent storms up 15% in Whitby Ice storms not frequent today and in projected to drop to almost zero. Interim? Projected 33% increase in days with high potential for lightning in Whitby Increased potential for tornados 53% in Whitby It s a package deal; no substitutions 24

25 Future Climate 2040s You ve already ordered it There s no returns (final sale) There s no escaping delivery You will pay later It s a package deal (no substitutions) Doesn t come with a manual IPCC 5 th AR: Severe, Pervasive and Irreversible

26 Step 2: Stakeholder Meetings to Date All municipalities in Durham Region, Senior Management or Council (with exception of Brock Township) All five Conservation Authorities Chambers of Commerce and Boards of Trade Electrical distribution utilities DEAC, DAAC, local councils Others

27 Step 3: Expert Task Forces Task Forces Flooding Heat Events Electricity Supply Transportation/Roads Natural Environment* Buildings* Food Security Telecom (on hold) Proposed Schedule Joint kickoff meeting Feb. 21 Task Forces meeting March, April & May to identify impacts, vulnerabilities, risks and programs/corrective actions Design Charette Late May (postponed slightly)

28 Step 4: Design Charette The work of 7 Task Forces feeds into the Charette Attendees are Task Force members plus community stakeholders Output is a draft Plan (CCAP) with Proposed Programs/ corrective actions Originally scheduled for May 28 & 29 Now postponed slightly Lesson here?

29 The Durham Differences Community plan in a 2 tier regional municipality Compressed schedule (1 year) Started with Climate Projections (SENES study) Then engaged stakeholders using projections Created Expert Task Forces among stakeholders Ask stakeholders to identify the implications and possible responses Integrate Task Force streams in a Design Charette Take a plan to this Council Watch this space!

30 Questions and Discussion