WEC World Energy Scenarios to 2050

Transcription

1 WEC World Energy Scenrios to 5 Dn A. Rieser July 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll World Energy Council 3

2 World Energy Council who we re The world energy leders network Truly globl Inclusive nd imprtil Committed to our sustinble energy future since ntionl committees chired by energy ministers, leding CEOs nd prctitioners - Represents over 3 government, privte sector nd eperts orgnistions - Flgship event: World Energy Congress, every three yers net in Degu, South Kore, 3 World Energy Council 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll

3 World Energy Scenrios to 5: Building on trck record & success WEC: more thn two decdes of scenrios epertise Cooperting with businesses, governments, interntionl orgnistions, member committees Building on previous WEC scenrios studies: Globl Energy Perspectives (989) Energy for Tomorrow s World (993) Globl Energy Perspectives to 5 nd Beyond (995) Globl Energy Perspectives (WEC IIASA, 998) Energy for Tomorrow s World Acting Now () Drivers of the Energy Scene (3) Deciding the Future: Energy Policy Scenrios to 5 (7) White pper on scenrios () Globl Trnsport Scenrios 5 report () World Energy Council 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll

4 World Energy Scenrios to 5: How is it different? WEC Scenrios: eplortive, rther thn normtive Scenrio : Mrket-fcilitted, consumer-driven, focus on chieving growth through low-cost energy Scenrio : Government-led, voter-driven, focus on energy security, ntionl nd regionl mesures to increse shre of renewbles in energy mi Tody 5 Stories quntified:, dt points by PSI (project prtner) World Energy Council 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll

5 Key Clusters. Role of Stte. Avilbility of Funds 3. Mitigtion of CO 4. Equlity 5. Globl Economics 6. Energy Prices 7. Consumer/citizen cceptnce 8. Energy Efficiency 9. Technology developments. Security of supply. Chin nd Indi. Energy Poverty 3. Energy Sources 4. Competition for resources 5. Skills shortges World Energy Council 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll 5

6 Brief outline of Globl Scenrio stories Jzz World where there is consumer focus on chieving energy ccess, ffordbility, nd individul energy security with the use of best vilble energy sources Min plyers re multi-ntionl compnies, bnks, venture cpitlists, nd price- conscious consumers Technologies re chosen in competitive mrkets Energy sources compete on bsis of price & vilbility Higher GDP growth due to optimised (efficient) mrket prctices. Free-trde strtegies led to incresed eports Renewble nd low crbon energy grows in line with mrket selection In the bsence of interntionl greed commitments Crbon mrket grows more slowly from bottom up bsed on regionl, ntionl nd locl inititives. World where there is voter consensus on driving environmentl sustinbility nd ntionl energy security through corresponding prctices nd policies Min plyers re privte nd public-sector compnies, locl governments, NGOs, nd environmentllyminded voters Governments pick technology winners Select energy sources re subsidised nd incentivized by governments Lower GDP due to non-optiml economic policies Ntionlistic strtegies result in reduced eports/imports Certin types of renewble nd low crbon energy ctively promoted by governments in the first prt of the scenrio period Crbon mrket is top down bsed on n interntionl greement, with commitments nd lloctions. World Energy Council 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll 6

7 Model description nd quntifiction of scenrio stories Modelling prtner: Pul Scherrer Institut, Switzerlnd (PSI) Model used: GMM (Globl Multi-regionl MARKAL model) Model fetures: MARKAL (MARKet Alloction) Bottom-up, perfect foresight cost-optimiztion models Lest-cost solutions Endogenous technologicl lerning (ETL) 8 Demnd Sectors (detiled trnsport sector) Time horizon: yers, -yer intervls Discount rte: 5% p.. cross ll technologies Model hs been disggregted to reflect 8 WEC Regions: Sub-Shrn Afric, MENA, LAC, NAM, Europe, South & Centrl Asi, Est Asi, nd SE Asi & Pcific. World Energy Council 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll 7

8 Energy Model Frmework: Key scenrio drivers Evolutions of key scenrio drivers re epressed in coherent storyline of future economic nd socil developments Some drivers re interdependent, e.g. energy intensity Drivers must be trnslted into quntified inputs for the energy system models Scenrio Popultion demogrphic trnsitions, timing GDP ptterns of economic development, structurl chnge, ctchup, demterilistion Energy Intensity Technologicl Development uptke / discovery of new technologies, improvements to eisting Energy nd Trnsport Demnds Industril Sector Commercil Sector Residentil Sector Trnsport Sector Technology chrcteristics / specifiction, mimum rtes of deployment Model: Quntifiction Resource vilbility Resource vilbility nd cost Policies Policy constrints: emissions, biofuels, climte policy Storyline Quntified inputs World Energy Council 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll

9 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll World Energy Council 3 Liner progrmming (LP) optimiztion model j m n mn m m i n in i i n n n n n n b b b b c c c Decision vribles (positive, continuous): Activity vribles (Production level of technologies) Energy flows Investment decisions Liner constrints: Blnces on energy crriers, cpcity growth, emissions Utiliztion (Cpcity vs. Activity) Peking Elec.eqn. (Reserve Cpcity) CO -emission Potentils of resources, technologies User-Defined Constrints (for behviourl spects in energy crrier/technology choice) Liner objective function c n n c c Min Optimiztion Model: Mthemticl formultion

10 WEC World Energy Scenrios to 5 Storyline nd quntifiction ssumptions (I) GDP growth Popultion Efficiency/ Intensity Climte policy Jzz Higher (strong focus on growth) (3.54% p CAGR, PPP) Lower (lower fertility, driven by higher incomes, eduction) (5 = 8.7 billion) Incresing mrket driven (higher prices/efficient mrkets) (-.9% p (primry, PPP)) Limited (but more diversity); Prices (5): 8-35 USD/tCO Lower (reltive), but still substntil (3.6% p CAGR, PPP) Higher (in line with UNDP medium) (5 = 9.3 billion) Incresing more strongly govt. focus on efficiency nd svings (-.44% p (primry, PPP)) Stronger (with globl convergence); Prices (5): 55-6 USD/tCO World Energy Council 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll

11 WEC World Energy Scenrios to 5 Storyline nd quntifiction ssumptions (II) Resources Technology support Technology innovtion Jzz Better ccess to unconventionl resources (esp. gs) Limited; energy choice bsed on free mrkets only limited nucler, CCS, lrge hydro Further development of CCGT decentrlized power (SPV), wind gs vehicles, EVs Stronger (with globl convergence); Prices (5): 55-6 USD/tCO Higher govt. support for nucler, lrge hydro, CCS nd renewbles Focused R&D progrms, esp. CCS demonstrtion Nucler SPV World Energy Council 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll

12 EJ/y EJ/y Ltest Modelling results Quntifiction of scenrios stories Totl Primry Energy Supply Totl Primry Energy Supply Renewbles Biomss Nucler Gs Oil Col Renewbles Biomss Nucler Gs Oil Col Jzz Upstrem liberlized; technology development supply surge/more producers Col remins dominnt in some regions Tighter supply (lower E&P) Higher infrstructure costs Energy security drives reduced fossil use Source: World PSI Energy (3): Council Ltest 3 modelling run s of 8 June 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll

13 TWh/y TWh/y Ltest Modelling results Quntifiction of scenrios stories Electricity Production by Primry Energy Electricity Production by Primry Energy Geotherml Solr Wind Biomss (with CCS) Biomss Hydro Hydrogen CoGen Nucler Gs Gs (with CCS) Oil Col Col (with CCS) Geotherml Solr Wind Biomss (with CCS) Biomss Hydro Hydrogen CoGen Nucler Gs Gs (with CCS) Oil Col Col (with CCS) Jzz col: epected to remin dominnt (regionl); supercriticl, gs: shre increses (esp. N. Americ), nucler: minly non-oecd Renewble shre increses, remins mostly hydro col: shre drops; CCS incresingly required on new build, gs: shre increses then drops, nucler: incresing; led by govts More stble & quicker trnsition to renewbles More hydro, esp. in emerging countries Source: World PSI Energy (3): Council Ltest 3 modelling run s of 8 June 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll 3

14 EJ/y EJ/y Ltest Modelling results Quntifiction of scenrios stories TFC by Fuel Type TFC by Fuel Type Solr Bio, Alc Hydrogen Electricity Gs Oil Type Col Het Bio noncomm Solr Bio, Alc Hydrogen Electricity Gs Oil Type Col Het Bio noncomm Jzz economic growth leds to higher consumption improved ccess to energy lower consumption, high impct of energy sving (nd lower growth) switching wy from fossil fuels (pek in 3) Source: World PSI Energy (3): Council Ltest 3 modelling run s of 8 June 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll 4

15 EJ/y EJ/y Ltest Modelling results Quntifiction of scenrios stories TFC by Region TFC by Region LAC MENA SSAFRICA CENTASIA EASTASIA EUROPE NAM PACIASIA LAC MENA SSAFRICA CENTASIA EASTASIA EUROPE NAM PACIASIA Jzz Growth to remin low in developed regions, higher in emerging economies; more efficiency in developed regions Industril demnd high in mnufcturing countries (USA, Chin), incresing eff. esp. in emerging economies Energy sving/efficiency to increse (esp. in emerging economies; building codes) Moderte economic growth Source: World PSI Energy (3): Council Ltest 3 modelling run s of 8 June 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll 5

16 TWh/y TWh/y Ltest Modelling results Quntifiction of scenrios stories: Europe Electricity Production by Primry Energy, Region EUROPE Electricity Production by Primry Energy, Region EUROPE Geotherml Solr Wind Biomss (with CCS) Biomss Hydro Hydrogen CoGen Nucler Gs Gs (with CCS) Oil Col Col (with CCS) Geotherml Solr Wind Biomss (with CCS) Biomss Hydro Hydrogen CoGen Nucler Gs Gs (with CCS) Oil Col Col (with CCS) Jzz Functioning crbon mrket (lbeit low CO prices) Gs investments until the medium term High penetrtion of onshore wind fter 4 Col electricity genertion switches to CCS in 5 Nucler, wind nd solr displce gs fter 3 (strong climte policy, govt. support) Source: World PSI Energy (3): Council Ltest 3 modelling run s of 8 June 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll 6

17 GtCO/y GtCO/y Ltest Modelling results Quntifiction of scenrios stories: CCS CCS CCS LAC MENA SSAFRICA CENTASIA EASTASIA EUROPE NAM PACIASIA LAC MENA SSAFRICA CENTASIA EASTASIA EUROPE NAM PACIASIA Jzz Possibly redy t commercil scle 35 CCS not dopted initilly due to high costs/low crbon price Commercil use in enhnced oil recovery Wider doption post 4 Entry of CCS erlier due to govt. intervention; govt. promotion CCS incresingly required on col new build lso, CCS in enhnced oil recovery Source: World PSI Energy (3): Council Ltest 3 modelling run s of 8 June 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll 7

18 TWh/y TWh/y Ltest Modelling results Quntifiction of scenrios stories: Solr PV Renewble Electricity Production Renewble Electricity Production Hydro Wind Solr Geotherml Biomss (with CCS) Biomss Hydro Wind Solr Geotherml Biomss (with CCS) Biomss Jzz Renewble shre increses Remins mostly hydro Growth in solr the highest (in figure % p vs. 7% wind/geo., 5% biomss, % hydro) More stble & quicker trnsition to renewbles More hydro, esp. in emerging countries Growth in solr significnt (in figure 5% p) Source: World PSI Energy (3): Council Ltest 3 modelling run s of 8 June 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll 8

19 WEC World Energy Scenrios to 5 Key findings t glnce Globl scenrios Energy system compleity Energy mi in 5 Nturl gs Shre of renewbles (RES-E) Energy efficiency CO Emissions nd CCS Crbon Cpture nd Storge (CCS) Mrket design nd mrkets structures Wild crds nd criticl uncertinties Energy trnsition nd trnsition strtegies World Energy Council 3 Promoting sustinble energy for the gretest benefit of ll