Energy production & economics of Renewable Energy technologies

Transcription

1 SAARC Knowledge Sharing Workshop on Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff 9th-10th May, 2018 Galadari Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka Energy production & economics of Renewable Energy technologies Tommaso Morbiato a a Windcity srl, Rovereto, Italy 1

2 Today s presentation contents: Key Performance Indicators useful for policy makers: Levelised Cost Of Electricity Capacity factor Power density Payback time Market design and integration for high share of RE Emerging market mechanisms, EaaS, distributed generation RE & variability of the natural source 2

3 Guiding UN SDGs: #7 #8 #9 #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 3

4 Key Performance Indicators useful for policy makers Need for matching Energy Production & Policies Economics, relevant KPIs : Levelised Cost of Electricity: performance on a lifetime base Capacity Factor: a measure of energy efficiency consistent with the marketplace Power Density: monitoring land use for sustainability Payback time: the fair marketplace 4

5 Renewable power generation costs at : the LCOE Levelised Cost of Electricity, of a given technology, is the ratio of lifetime costs to lifetime electricity generation, both discounted with same WACC (10%) 5

6 LCOE and auction prices datasets Outlook to 2020 comparing LCOE and auction prices for single projects must be done with caution volumes of data & consistent trends between the 2 datasets provide some confidence in the overall trend 6

7 Analyzing LCOE for promising innovative RE technologies Blue growth of non-conventional hydropower: the hydrokinetic energy Conventional hydropower ρgh = P + 0,5ρv Natural resource Infrastucture before converter Non conventional hydro 0,5ρv + ρgh Natural resource Encased flow PTOs Open flow Converter efficiency Betz limit0,593 WEC low efficiency & advanced (Kaplan, hydro-air, ) Point absorber, Attenuator, Oscillating surge, column, Hydrokinetic HKT efficiency 80% (wind-tech transfer) 7

8 Analyzing LCOE for promising innovative RE technologies hydrokinetic energy: open-flow solutions Axial rotor Cross-axis rotor 8

9 Analyzing LCOE for promising innovative RE technologies 9

10 Capacity factor is the ratio between energy records and the rated power times the period of record CF = T 0 P P () t dt el,max often driven by a mix of technology (efficiency, availability), renewable resources (variability) and economic factors (DNO regulations, ) el T 10

11 Simple capacity factor figures Worldwide solar energy market 2015: MW installed power capacity Total energy harvested 2015: GWh / /24/365 = 0,13 or 1130 hours Worldwide wind energy market 2015: MW installed power capacity Total energy harvested 2015: GWh / /24/365 = 0,23 or 1986 hours 11

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14 Power density: monitoring land use for sustainability Power density per square meter is the sustainability rationale of a distributed generation project, as an effective land use is of primary importance for a smart city. While the current standard can be a solar panel with m 2 per kw i.e. 0,07 kw/ m 2, emerging innovative RE technologies such as openflow hydrokinetic turbines offer less than 0,2 m 2 per kw i.e. 5 kw/ m 2 Taking yet into account inter-modular distances for both techs, R&D in hydrokinetic applications is worth introducing a RE technology >70 times less land consuming than current solar energy 14

15 Payback time: the fair marketplace Energy payback EU 2017 avg. customer 220 per MWh Household level <5 MWh per year Energy payback EU 2017 avg. customer 220 per MWh Household level <5MWh per year example of a 25 kw hydrokinetic turbine project: the robustness of the business plan is tested with the avg. EU energy price, no FIT or other RE incentive energy producibility (MWh per year) energy producibility (MWh per year) years 4 years 2 years avg. water flow (meters per sec) Energy payback EU 2017 avg. customer 121 per MWh Non-Household level >500MWh per year 6 years 4 years 2 years COGS margin 300% COGS margin 300% avg. water flow (meters per sec) energy producibility (MWh per year) energy producibility (MWh per year) years 4 years 2 years COGS margin 200% avg. water flow (meters per sec) Energy payback EU 2017 avg. customer 121 per MWh Non-Household level >500MWh per year 6 years 4 years 2 years COGS margin 200% avg. water flow (meters per sec) 15

16 Payback time: the fair marketplace Energy payback EU 2017 avg. customer 220 per MWh Household level <5MWh per year energy producibility (MWh per year) years 4 years 2 years COGS margin 200% avg. water flow (meters per sec) 16

17 Price of solar power drops after tech maturity, but: Capacity factor: on average 50% of wind, strongly affected by variability Power density: among the lowest Payback-time: uncertain 17

18 Market integration of RE promotion mechanisms Capacity-based mechanisms. There is no energy or availability contract involved, they avoid market distorsions, but risk financing low-quality projects. Features affecting market compatibility: Support payment, amount and timing Choice of reference plant (benchmark) Frequency of support payment Minimum performance requirements Production-based mechanisms. Tying payment to performance, deliver the best system design and efficiency, although exposed to market distorsions. Features affecting market compatibility: Amount of supported production Type of support (market price link/no-link/separate) 18

19 Market integration of RE - emerging mechanisms With cost reduction and new RE technologies, new mechanisms emerge where support has minor role Prosumers mechanisms. Electricity customers who both consume & produce. Features affecting market compatibility: Production can net consumption/reduce consumption tariff Bundle volumetric tariffs: avoid non-energy costs (taxes, charges, etc.) Bank production credits/ Negative consumption at later date Metering technologies: from smart-meters to upcoming peer-to-peer energy exchange in blockchain powered web platforms for decentralized local economies Energy-as-a-Service frontier. Supergrid.eu (Bruxelles) foresees a flat rate energy market in the near future 19

20 Distributed generation: dealing with the natural resource 20

21 Small Wind Tech (SWT) rating is: 0,1-100 kw Total Wind Market 416 GW SWT market 830 MW = 0,2 % Total Wind with a potential of distributed generation kw / units = 880 W mean rating per unit 21

22 Urban to rural wind capacity factors: the effect of variable flows Capacity factor urban/rural Distance from city centre [km] 22

23 Nature & Machine: the challenge of adapting to Change 23

24 Knowledge Transition To Built Environment Wind Tech Working Group 2 Expertises Steel structures applications to Wind Tech Electrical power engineering Fluid Mechanics Structural dynamics Wind Engineering Need Analysis Power and Energy Production examination Analysis of Technology Readiness Level for built environment Integration at Building scale for Wind Energy Projects Value Proposition Structural design for small wind turbine integration in the building Turbine design for variable winds in Urban Boundary Layer Electrical connection solutions for smart-grids Urban context integration and Energy Performance of Building Directive 31/

25 Variable water flows in any coastal area 25

26 Variable water flows in any coastal area Time-variable flows. Hydraulic measurements on scale model 26

27 Impact of distributed generation on voltage control strategies DNOs increasingly need to monitor local voltage levels and dynamically adjust substation depending on actual rather than expected network conditions Evolve from static passive solutions to space and timedependant control strategies 27