International motivations for hydrogen

Transcription

1 International motivations for hydrogen Dr David Hart Metrolinx Hydrail Symposium 16 November 2017 Strategy Energy Sustainability

2 Contents E4tech The international and local context Hydrogen in the energy system Some international flavour Observations 2

3 E4tech Strategy Energy Sustainability 3

4 E4tech: Strategic thinking in sustainable energy International consulting firm, offices in UK and Switzerland Focus on sustainable energy 20 years old this year, always independent Deep expertise in technology, business and strategy, market assessment, techno-economic modelling, policy support A spectrum of clients from start-ups to global corporations 4

5 The context Strategy Energy Sustainability 5

6 National and regional policy is a primary driver for hydrogen developments - Air Quality - GhG reduction - Industrial policy - Industrial policy? - Low C heat - GhG reduction - Renewables use - Industrial policy - GhG reduction - Energy imports - Industrial policy - Air quality Air quality Industrial policy GhG reduction - GhG reduction - Energy imports - Industrial policy - Industrial policy 6

7 And local authorities can take drastic unilateral action, with hydrogen for heavy duty looking promising Paris London Low Emission Zones; incentives to use public transport No more diesels by 2025 Discount on car sharing subscription; free bike sharing and public transportation Financial support to businesses to replace petrol or diesel commercial vehicles by electric or natural gas Low Emissions Zone (LEZ); still not meeting EU Air Quality targets Central London Ultra LEZ in 2019 Pollution charge: pre- Euro 4 vehicles Single deck buses to be zero emissions (FC or battery) by 2020 Double deck ZEV by

8 Hydrogen in the energy system Strategy Energy Sustainability 8

9 Flexible markets, dynamic systems, new technologies and cheap renewables Sector Coupling is all the rage System wide policy targets Transport policy Vehicle to grid Electricity policy Pure electricity storage Thermal storage Power to gas Gas policy Gas storage Heat policy Pure heat storage Source: E4tech 9

10 With hydrogen specifically of interest for grid support, heat, transport and Power to X Evolving and increasingly integrated energy systems need energy storage, grid support and balancing To effectively decarbonise heat, transport and chemicals and make business sense requires large scale Many stakeholders are represented, and many assets: making it work well is not simple Regulations and tariffs need co-ordination, and market participation should be fair Business cases are still evolving; demonstrations shed increasing light on performance System interconnection and power-to-gas Surplus renewable electricity Chemicals H 2 storage Electrolyser Fuel cell Gas plants CHP Transport fuel Heating H 2 injected into gas grid Conventional route (No market crossover) Novel route (e.g. electricity transport) 10

11 Hydrogen internationally Strategy Energy Sustainability 11

12 Japan s commitment is large, across government and industry Government s long term strategy to create a hydrogen society for: Industrial competitiveness Greenhouse gas obligations Dependence on imported energy Generous support exists for FCEVs, infrastructure and hydrogen supply chain: 160 refuelling stations by end 2020, from Tokyo to northern Kyushu. Government plus major industry JX Nippon, Iwatani, Toyota, Honda Toyota, Honda selling fuel cell cars around 6,000 on global roads. Trucks, trains, buses, forklifts also important Kawasaki Heavy Industry building a demonstration LH 2 tanker, and H 2 turbines; Chiyoda, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo taking positions The 2020 Tokyo Olympics will have a high hydrogen profile: 6,000 FC cars and 100 buses expected 12

13 However, METI s ambitious plan reflects aspirations as much as bottom-up analysis Developed jointly by expert industry and government Other components exist but no full analysis has been published Source: METI 13

14 Germany supports vehicles and stationary applications through local and national Government, plus companies Very structured approach, linking to renewable energy and climate targets Main H2 funding is managed through a National Innovation Programme across all sectors. 700 million funding for R&D in phase I (to 2016); phase II targeted more at market activation In transport, 50 HRS financed to date, 100 targeted by 2018 and 400 by The Clean Energy Partnership has 100+ cars, ~20 buses, and requires 50% green H 2 production The NIP also encompasses: Stationary systems Energy systems integration Regional governments also have strong commitments to projects and industry, while major corporations are investing heavily 14

15 France was slow to engage, but is increasingly committed; the UK has triggered debate around H 2 heat The French government has become more engaged; several well-funded programmes touch industry and academia: Mobilité Hydrogène France focuses on vehicle clusters and HRS primarily from French actors Horizon Hydrogen Energy covers production through use including industrial vehicles, links with renewable energy, and remote sites Air Liquide, Engie and Areva are all active, plus SMEs UK Government is supporting HRS, cars, and has strong interest in heat Decarbonising gas heating is not trivial can H2 be used? The Leeds Citygate project has triggered much debate, and a 15m programme of development and testing is just starting 15

16 Korea has followed a scaled-down version of Japan s path; Nordic countries have hydrogen developments South Korea is rolling out production sites and clusters of refuelling stations. 170 HRS are planned by 2020; 500 by 2030 Announcements suggest that all Korean buses will at some point run on H 2 An H-town project uses H 2 fuel cells for electricity, heating and transport Hundreds of MW of large stationary fuel cells are supported as renewables Sweden has no national government strategy, but stakeholders plan hydrogen infrastructure development for 2020 and several stations are operating Strategies and road maps exist in Denmark. Copenhagen is testing hydrogen, fuel cells and refuelling stations towards becoming carbon neutral by 2025 Norway has had activities for many years. Buses and cars in some regions, developments in marine transport, and hydrogen linked to power generation 16

17 China has moved from solar and wind, through batteries, to fuel cells and hydrogen support China s 5 year plan emphasises added value industry and higher quality cleaner production Strong air quality and carbon emissions drivers: Chinese car buyers up to ~$25k for a new energy vehicle 300 hydrogen refuelling stations by 2025; 1,000 by 2030 planned to support 50,000 and then 1m FCEV Hydrogen light rail Hydrogen is considered a way of integrating large and growing amounts of variable renewables, many remote from demand centres Local capabilities and supply chains are being aggressively developed: Furui, SAIC and Great Wall are local examples Overseas agreements and investments: Ballard, Hydrogenics, Plug Power 17

18 Hydrogen in increasingly seen as an important part of the future picture Strategic thinking in sustainable energy 18

19 Hydrogen (and fuel cells) are very much part of corporate and government thinking, both near term and big picture UK Hydrogen & FC Roadmap Survey hypothesis: FCEVs will be the real breakthrough for electric mobility An annual survey by KPMG shows that car industry executives tend to favour FCEVs in

20 David Hart Thank you London Lausanne Free to download from 20