Evaluating the Costs and Benefits of Wind Energy Development in the Mountains of Virginia

Transcription

1 Evaluating the Costs and Benefits of Wind Energy Development in the Mountains of Virginia Rick Webb Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Virginia Wind

2 The industrial scale of modern wind turbines

3 The largest turbines built to date in the Central Appalachian region are 400 ft to the top of the rotor swept area. 400 ft 345 ft Proposed Highland Project Existing Mountaineer Project

4 The location of the wind energy resource The areas with sufficient wind for commercial projects are the ecologically special areas that represent our remnant wild landscape.

5 The diffuse nature of the wind resource Wind projects in the Appalachian Mountains are typically built in strings of about eight turbines per mile along ridgelines.

6 The diffuse nature of the wind resource Wind projects in the Appalachian Mountains are typically built in strings of about eight turbines per mile along ridgelines. 3, MW turbines would be required to satisfy 10% of Virginia s projected electricity demand in 2015 This would require 450 miles of ridgeline

7 Wind Power is Limited by Intermittency

8 Mount Storm is a 1662 MW facility operating at an 80% capacity factor. To generate the same power with 1.5 MW turbines: 2955 turbines operating at 30% capacity factor turbines operating at 10% capacity factor

9 The Six Largest Power Plants in Virginia: Number of wind turbines and miles of ridgecrest needed to provide an equivalent annual output of electricity * Facility Name Capacity (MW) Fuel Type Annual Capacity Factor # Turbines To Equal Output # Miles Ridgecrest Covered North Anna 1,960 Nuclear 86% 3, Surry 1,695 Nuclear 91% 3, Chesterfield 1,353 Coal 60% 1, Clover 848 Coal 90% 1, Chesapeake 650 Coal 72% 1, Clinch River 713 Coal 63% * Based on 30% annual capacity factor and eight turbines per mile

10 Environmental Costs: Forest fragmentation Site clearing Access roads Transmission lines Wildlife impacts Sensitive habitats Migratory and resident birds and bats

11 Environmental Costs: Forest fragmentation Site clearing Access roads Transmission corridors Wildlife impacts Sensitive habitats Migratory and resident birds and bats 3 to 5 acres of clearing per turbine 15 to 20 acres of interior forest lost per turbine

12

13 Environmental Costs: Forest fragmentation Site clearing Access roads Transmission corridors Wildlife impacts Sensitive habitats Migratory and resident birds and bats 3 to 5 acres of clearing per turbine 15 to 20 acres of interior forest lost per turbine

14 Environmental Costs: Forest fragmentation Site clearing Access roads Transmission lines Wildlife impacts Sensitive habitats Migratory and resident birds and bats Pressing need for state-level process for wind project siting

15 Environmental Costs: Forest fragmentation Site clearing Access roads Transmission lines Wildlife impacts Sensitive habitats Migratory and resident birds and bats U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service avoid bird + bat concentration areas

16 Environmental Costs: Forest fragmentation Site clearing Access roads Transmission lines Wildlife impacts Sensitive habitats Migratory and resident birds and bats bats killed in one 6-week period at the Mountaineer Project in West Virginia

17 Environmental Costs: Forest fragmentation Site clearing Access roads Transmission lines Wildlife impacts Sensitive habitats Migratory and resident birds and bats Virginia Dept. of Game and Inland Fisheries unacceptable risk

18 Environmental Benefits: Energy supply Energy independence Backdown coal Air quality improvement SO2 and NOx CO2

19 Environmental Benefits: Energy supply Energy independence Backdown coal Air quality improvement SO2 and NOx CO2 It is argued that the severity of these problems trumps local preservation concerns - that sacrifices must be made for the good of the planet.

20 The upcoming General Assembly Session will consider Renewable Portfolio Standard legislation that will require the use of renewable energy, including wind energy, in Virginia.

21 The upcoming General Assembly Session will consider Renewable Portfolio Standard legislation that will require the use of renewable energy, including wind energy, in Virginia. Before we mandate wind development, shouldn t we first answer some fundamental questions?

22 The upcoming General Assembly Session will consider Renewable Portfolio Standard legislation that will require the use of renewable energy, including wind energy, in Virginia. Before we mandate wind development, shouldn t we first answer some fundamental questions? How much wind power is actually available? How much and where can wind be developed given appropriate guidelines and restrictions? What are the tradeoffs in terms of environmental costs and benefits?

23 Where is Virginia s Wind Power Resource? Distribution of Class 3 and better winds in Virginia (AWS-Truewind) Commerically developable sites have Wind Power Class ratings of 3 up to 7, with Class 3 winds considered minimally acceptable for siting utility-scale wind turbines

24 Where is Virginia s Wind Power Resource? Distribution of Class 3 and better winds in Virginia (AWS-Truewind) The coastal area, including the Bay and about 6 miles offshore, has almost 4 times the area of developable wind resource as the mountain area.

25 Estimates of Technical Wind Power Capacity Public Citizen million MWh or 92% of Virginia s annual electricity consumption Chesapeake Climate Action Network 54.0 million MWh or 57% of Virginia s projected 2015 electricity consumption Cited to promote incentives and mandates for wind development

26 Estimates of Technical Wind Power Capacity Public Citizen million MWh or 92% of Virginia s annual electricity consumption Chesapeake Climate Action Network 54.0 million MWh or 57% of Virginia s projected 2015 electricity consumption Are these estimates credible?

27 Estimates of Technical Wind Power Capacity Public Citizen million MWh or 92% of Virginia s annual electricity consumption Chesapeake Climate Action Network 54.0 million MWh or 57% of Virginia s projected 2015 electricity consumption Based on DOE-NREL data assembled by the Va Center for Coal and Energy Research Includes onshore and offshore wind areas 95 % of estimated generation capacity is based on offshore wind areas 87 % of estimated generation capacity is based on areas 20 to 50 miles offshore

28 Estimates of Technical Wind Power Capacity Public Citizen million MWh or 92% of Virginia s annual electricity consumption Chesapeake Climate Action Network 54.0 million MWh or 57% of Virginia s projected 2015 electricity consumption Based on estimates provided by the Va Wind Energy Collaborative Includes Class 4 Class 7 winds, onshore only Cited to promote benefits of RPS legislation Underlying data and analysis are not available for public review and verification

29 Estimates of Technical Wind Power Capacity Virginia Center for Coal and Energy Research 1,960 MW of onshore capacity 33,792 MW of offshore capacity Based on analysis provided by DOE- NREL Includes Class 3 Class 7 winds onshore Includes Class 4 Class 6 winds offshore Includes landuse constraints onshore The estimated 5 to10- year onshore development potential is about 400 MW

30 Maximum Onshore Wind Energy Contribution in Relation to Past and Projected Electricity Consumption in Virginia Past electricity consumption Million MWh Projected electricity consumption Prospective wind contribution

31 Maximum Onshore Wind Energy Contribution in Relation to Past and Projected Electricity Consumption in Virginia Observation 1: 200 Maximum onshore wind 150 Past electricity consumption development can provide no more Million MWh Projected electricity consumption Prospective wind contribution than 5% of the new generation needed through % will have to come from other sources.

32 Maximum Onshore Wind Energy Contribution in Relation to Past and Projected Electricity Consumption in Virginia Observation 2: 200 Maximum onshore wind 150 Past electricity consumption development can only satisfy 3.8% Million MWh Projected electricity consumption Prospective wind contribution of the projected 2015 electricity requirement not a serious contribution to a 15-20% RPS requirement.

33 PJM Wind Energy Project Summary PA, MD, WV and VA as of July 31, 2006 Projects MW Operating Wind Energy Facility Approved by state and/or locality Other Projects in the Active Queue 44 3,856 TOTAL 60 5,000 See: vawind.org/assets/docs/pjm_windplant_queue_summary_ pdf vawind.org/assets/docs/rps/rps-2030.pdf

34 PJM Wind Energy Project Summary PA, MD, WV and VA as of July 31, 2006 Projects MW Operating Wind Energy Facility Approved by state and/or locality Other Projects in the Active Queue 44 3,856 TOTAL 60 5,000 1 A Virginia RPS requiring 10% of 2015 electricity demand to be supplied by wind would require about 5000 MW of installed wind capacity.

35 PJM Wind Energy Project Summary PA, MD, WV and VA as of July 31, 2006 Projects MW Operating Wind Energy Facility Approved by state and/or locality Other Projects in the Active Queue 44 3,856 TOTAL 60 5,000 1 A Virginia RPS with 10% of 2015 electricity demand to be supplied by wind would require about 5000 MW of installed wind capacity. 2 Enacted RPS legislation in DE, DC, MD, NJ, and PA will require about 15,000 MW of installed wind capacity.

36 Observed and Projected Electricity Generation and Emissions for Fossil-Fuel Electrical Generating Units in the U.S. Electricity generation SO 2 emissions NO x emissions Million MWh Millions of Tons

37 Observed and Projected Electricity Generation and Emissions for Fossil-Fuel Electrical Generating Units in the U.S. Electricity generation SO 2 emissions NO x emissions Million MWh In Millions of Tons 32 % of SO 2 non EGU 77 % of NO x non EGU

38 Projected Increase in CO 2 Emissions in Virginia and Potential Offset Provided by Onshore Wind Energy Development Million Tons Emissions Offset % Offset

39 Projected Increase in CO 2 Emissions in Virginia and Potential Offset Provided by Onshore Wind Energy Development 250 In % of CO 2 non EGU Million Tons Emissions Offset % Offset

40 Benefits Summary for Maximum Potential Onshore Wind Development in Virginia Electricity generation equal to only 3.8% of projected 2015 demand No reduction in fossil fuel consumption Little or no reduction in SO 2 and NO X emissions CO 2 offset equal to only 1.8% of projected 2015 emissions

41 Better Alternatives Conservation Address our 2.5% annual growth rate in electricity consumption Focus on major emission sources Maximize the air quality dividend Objective assessment of options Go beyond qualitative slogans

42