National Climate Change Response Strategy

Transcription

1 Government of Kenya Nationa Cimate Change Response Strategy Executive Brief November 2009 Apri together we can tacke cimate change 1

2 Government of Kenya, 2010 A rights reserved. No part of this pubication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieva system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, eectronic, mechanica, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, without the prior permission in writing of the Government of Kenya. 2 together we can tacke cimate change

3 Foreword The integration of cimate information into Government poicies is important because cimate is a major driving factor for most of the economic activities in Kenya. Cimate information has, however, not been easiy understandabe. The same has not been adequatey factored into most of the sectors of the country s economy incuding Government deveopment poicies and pans. The current Government s bue print caed Vision 2030 is no exception. The purpose of this Nationa Cimate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) is to put in pace robust measures needed to address most, if not a, of the chaenges posed by cimate variabiity and change. It is important for me that this Strategy has been deveoped through a very participatory process conducted countrywide. We have had two nationa workshops, nine regiona workshops as we as workshops with pariamentarians and custers of stakehoders incuding the Government, private sector, civi society organisations, deveopment partners, youth groups, women s groups, faithbased organisations, and the media, among others. These workshops were hed to gather information on the impacts of cimate change as we as on recommended interventions. It is aso important for me that a number of ine-ministries have provided their programmes and projects towards sector-wide adaptation to and mitigation against cimate change. The Action Pan of this Strategy buids on these programmes and projects, among others, and shows to me the Government s commitment towards tacking cimate change. This document is divided into ten chapters. Chapter One ooks at the history of cimate change, chaenges and internationa efforts to combat cimate change. The remaining chapters give detais on evidence and impacts of cimate change; strategic focus of the NCCRS incuding the inkages between the NCCRS and the Vision 2030; adaptation and mitigation interventions; communication, education and awareness programmes; vunerabiity assessments; research, technoogy deveopment and transfer; poicy, egisation and institutiona framework; as we as action pan, impementation framework and resource mobiisation pan, respectivey. The recommendations given in this document shoud be transated into poicies that woud benefit our communities and trigger the process of active invovement in factoring cimate information into a reevant activities. For cimate change threats to be appreciated, the document has recommended massive awareness campaigns so that the pubic can be sensitised and mobiised to adapt to and mitigate against impacts of cimate change. It is important to note that this is the first time this country has deveoped a document of this kind dedicated to addressing the threats posed by cimate change as we as taking advantage of any opportunities that may arise. Future cimate change programmes and projects wi have to be deveoped in ine with the provisions of this Response Strategy. Consequenty, this Strategy is now the key Government cimate change agenda guide in the country and wi inform nationwide cimate change programmes and deveopment activities incuding the formuation of documents such as the Nationa Cimate Change Poicy and efforts towards the attainment of Vision For this reason, the Strategy sha be circuated widey to as many stakehoders as possibe to enabe extensive reading. 3 together we can tacke cimate change 3

4 Acknowedgement Cimate change is considered one of the most serious threats to sustainabe deveopment gobay. Studies have shown that about 90% of a natura disasters afficting the word are reated to severe weather and extreme cimate change events. Impacts of the projected cimate change are expected in many sectors such as environment, human heath, food security, economic activities, natura resources and physica infrastructure. For exampe, among the key findings of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (IPCC, 2007) are: Miions of peope gobay wi be exposed to increased water stress, Access to food in many African countries wi be severey compromised, and Adaptation to cimate change wi be necessary. Kenya acknowedges that the change in the Earth s cimate and its adverse effects are a common concern of humankind. The Ministry of Environment and Minera Resources (MEMR) has therefore recognised the need to enhance coordination of cimate change activities in the country with a view to ensuring a cimate-proof socioeconomic deveopment anchored on a owcarbon path. The Kenya Nationa Cimate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) is based on outcomes of stakehoder-consutations hed a over the country and therefore captures the aspirations of most Kenyans on tacking cimate change chaenges. The document has aso drawn from sectora cimate change response activities and budgeted Action Pans of various ine Ministries. Indeed, the Strategy has come up with modaities of deaing with cimate change chaenges in the country with a view to ensuring a cimate-resiient nation. These incude recommendations on reevant poicies, institutiona framework, awareness creation and mobiisation of resources, among many others. The Ministry of Environment and Minera Resources is proud to present this Strategy, the first ever in the country. This is an indication of the high priority the Ministry has accorded to cimate change and its associated impacts. It is my hope that the document wi be found usefu in deivering the country out of the vicious cyce of poverty exacerbated by the changing cimate and its associated severe impacts on iveihoods and economic deveopment. The preparation and pubication of this Strategy have taken efforts of various entities and I woud ike to acknowedge their efforts. I take this opportunity to thank a those who participated in the production of this Response Strategy: CAMCO as a consuting firm, stakehoders who participated in the consutative workshops, the NCCRS Advisory Committee, the NEMA staff who organised the regiona consutative workshops, officers of the Cimate Change Secretariat at the Ministry headquarters, a Ministries that contributed concept papers on cimate change projects and programmes to be undertaken by their respective Ministries, and the Environment Secretary for coordinating a these inputs and steering the pubication of the Strategy. Deveopment of a document of this kind woud be impossibe without financia resources. In this regard, my gratitude goes to the Governments of Denmark and Sweden through the Danida/Sida supported Environmenta Programme Support (EPS) for providing both technica and financia support for the process. Of course I can t forget the support provided by other deveopment partners in particuar the UNDP, UNEP, Internationa Deveopment Research Centre (IDRC), IGAD Cimate Prediction and Appications Centre (ICPAC) and members of pariament particuary the Departmenta Committee on Land and Natura Resources as we as the Departmenta Committee on Agricuture, Livestock and Cooperatives during the awareness campaign workshops. Lawrence Lenayapa Permanent Secretary Ministry of Environment and Minera Resources 4 together we can tacke cimate change

5 Tabe of Contents FOREWORD...3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT...4 TABLE OF CONTENTS...5 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES...6 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW OF THE STRATEGY...7 Context of the Nationa Cimate Change Response Strategy...7 The formuation process...7 Overview of the Nationa Cimate Change Response Strategy CLIMATE CHANGE: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE EVIDENCE AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA Evidence of Cimate Change in Kenya Impacts of Cimate Change on Kenya STRATEGIC FOCUS Importance of the NCCRS to Kenya Strategic Focus Vision, Mission and Objectives Strategic Objectives ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION MEASURES Adaptation Mitigation Carbon Markets CLIMATE CHANGE COMMUNICATION, EDUCATION AND AWARENESS VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, IMPACT MONITORING AND CAPACITY BUILDING RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT, ABSORPTION AND DIFFUSION CLIMATE CHANGE GOVERNANCE ACTION PLAN, RESOURCE MOBILISATION PLAN AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK Action Pan Resource Mobiisation Pan Impementation Framework RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION together we can tacke cimate change 5

6 List of Tabes and Figures TABLES Tabe 1 Annua costs of cimate change projects and programmes (2009 estimates) FIGURES Figure 1 Temperature trend for Nairobi from Figure 2 Rainfa trends in Lamu and Garissa over the past haf century...9 Figure 3 GHG emissions trend in Kenya Figure 4 Proposed cimate change governance structure together we can tacke cimate change

7 Introduction and Overview of the Strategy Context of the Nationa Cimate Change Response Strategy The Nationa Cimate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS), aso referred to as the Strategy, is the cumination of a year-ong process to deveop a comprehensive and concerted suite of strategies to respond to the chaenges cimate change is posing to Kenya s socioeconomic deveopment. The NCCRS is a significant step in the recognition that cimate change is a threat to nationa deveopment. It has presented evidence on cimate change and associated impacts. In addition, it has proposed a concerted programme of activities and actions to combat such impacts and an enabing impementation framework. The formuation process The NCCRS was deveoped in a participatory manner. The process invoved a tota of thirteen workshops. The first nationa workshop was used to initiate the process, and was foowed by nine regiona consutative workshops, one in each of the eight provinces of Kenya, except for Rift Vaey Province where two workshops were hed because of the province s expansive nature. The second nationa workshop was a consensus workshop where stakehoders reviewed the contents of the draft NCCRS document to verify that it had captured a or most of the aspirations they had articuated during the regiona consutative workshops. In addition, one consutative workshop with members of pariament was hed as we as a crucia consutative meeting with members of the cabinet chaired by the Prime Minister, which endorsed the Strategy. Over 3000 stakehoders were consuted government representatives and agencies, members of pariament, the private sector, faith-based organisations, non-governmenta organisations (NGOs), deveopment partners, farmers representatives as we as ordinary Kenyans especiay from rura areas who represent the most vunerabe to the adverse effects of cimate change. Overview of the Nationa Cimate Change Response Strategy The resutant Nationa Cimate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) is divided into ten chapters. The Strategy has outined the evidence of cimate change (in terms of temperature and rainfa variation) in Kenya, cimate change impacts on the country and recommended actions that the country needs to take to reduce these impacts as we as take advantage of the beneficia effects of cimate change. These actions range from adaptation and mitigation measures in key sectors, to necessary poicy, egisative and institutiona adjustments, to ways of enhancing cimate change awareness, education and communication in the country, to necessary capacity buiding requirements, and to ways of enhancing research and deveopment as we as technoogy deveopment and transfer in areas that respond to cimate change, among many others. 7 together we can tacke cimate change 7

8 1. Cimate Change: A Goba Perspective A synopsis of the goba perspective of cimate change has been provided. The purpose is to enhance understanding of cimate change in a goba context, and to define key terms and concepts reevant to the understanding of the probem of cimate change. The discussion here focuses on the cimate change negotiation process and outcomes, internationa agreements and poicies, and most importanty the positions Kenya needs to adopt in order to maximise benefits. The Strategy traces the origin of cimate change debate starting as an internationa environmenta and deveopmenta chaenge beginning with the pubication of the Brundtand Report in 1987 through to the formation of the Intergovernmenta Pane on Cimate Change (IPCC) in 1989, the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Deveopment (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro, and the estabishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Cimate Change (UNFCCC). Since then, there have been a series of Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC, which have produced Accords and Protocos (i.e. Marrakesh Accords, Kyoto Protoco and the Copenhagen Accord). Key issues that have continued to shape the goba cimate change regime are aso expained. These incude mitigation, adaptation, finance, technoogy deveopment and transfer, governance as we as the roe of and-use and and-use change and forestry (LULUCF) in cimate change mitigation especiay in deveoping countries. 8 together we can tacke cimate change 8

9 2. Evidence and Impacts of Cimate Change in Kenya Figure 1: Temperature trend for Nairobi from 1960 to 2005 increase in both T min and T max, but decrease in diurna range of temperature (Data and figure from the KMD) Figure 2: Rainfa trends over Lamu and Garissa over the past haf century (Data and figure from the KMD) 2.1 Evidence of Cimate Change in Kenya The evidence of cimate change in Kenya is unmistakabe. Temperatures have risen throughout the country. Rainfas have become irreguar and unpredictabe, and when it rains, downpour is more intense. Extreme and harsh weather is now a norm in Kenya. More specificay, since the eary 1960s, both minimum (night time) and maximum (daytime) temperatures have been on an increasing (warming) trend. The minimum temperature has risen generay by o C and the maximum by o C, depending on the season and the region. In areas near arge water bodies, the maximum temperatures have risen much ike in other areas but the minimum temperatures have either not changed or become sighty ower. As an exampe, the changing temperature trends for Nairobi are shown in Figure 1. As regards rainfas, the most visibe feature is the increased variabiity year to year, and during the year. There is a genera decine of rainfa in the main rainfa season of March- May (the Long Rains ). In other words, drought in the Long Rains Season is more frequent and proonged. On the other hand, there is a genera positive trend (more rains) during September to February. This suggests that the Short Rains (October-December) season is extending into what is normay hot and dry period of January and February. Moreover, measured by the voume of rainfas in a 24 hour period, more intense rainfas occur, and more frequenty, over the coasta strip and the northern parts of the country during September - February. This means frequent occurrence of severe foods in those areas. No significant trends in the 24-hour rainfa amounts are observed in other areas of the country. Figure 2 beow shows changes in rainfa patterns in Lamu and Garissa. 2.2 Impacts of Cimate Change on Kenya These changing cimatic (rainfa and temperature) patterns have had adverse impacts on Kenya s socioeconomic sectors. Moreover, current projections indicate that such impacts wi ony worsen in the future if the word does not impement measures that resut in deep cuts in anthropogenic Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, which are responsibe for cimate change. Figure 1 Figure 2 Key: DJF means December-January-February, whie MAM stands for March-Apri-May 9 together we can tacke cimate change 9

10 In Kenya, the adverse impacts of cimate change are compounded by oca environmenta degradation (iega encroachments and settements, ogging and ivestock grazing), which have among others, further aggravated deforestation and and degradation. Forest cover in Kenya for instance, has faen from 12% in the 1960s to ess than 2 % at present. This has consideraby affected the abiity of Kenya s five main Water Towers to act as water catchments for major rivers and akes, which are the main sources of water for daiy consumption in rura and urban areas. Thus, the impacts of cimate change, compounded by oca environmenta degradation, are profound. In summary, some of the observed as we as projected cimate change impacts on Kenya incude: Kenya has a andmass of about 582,350 km 2 of which ony 17% is arabe whie 83% consists of semi-arid and arid and (ASAL). Due to cimate change and other human factors, desertification, i.e., the extent of arid and semi-arid and, is increasing. Kenya s rangeands support miions of pastoraists and agro-pastoraists who trave ong distances in search of pasture and water for their catte. Receding rangeands threaten the very basis of the iveihood and the way of ife of the pastoraists. The Kenyan coastine is characterized by a rich diversity, incuding fish, cora reefs and mangrove forests. But the Kenyan coast is one of the most vunerabe to sea eve rise in the word. For exampe, it is estimated that about 17% of Mombasa or 4600 hectares (ha) of and area wi be submerged with a sea eve rise of ony 0.3 metres. Kenya is a water-scarce country. The natura endowment of renewabe freshwater is ow, and water resources are uneveny distributed in both time and space. Cimate change wi worsen this aready precarious situation as it affects the main hydroogica components: (i) precipitation and (ii) runoff. This wi ater the spatia and tempora avaiabiity of water resources. The desoation that often characterises dryand areas as a resut of drought eads to oss of iveihoods. Photo courtesy of the Noomayianat CBO, 2009 Kenya s natura resources, in particuar its rich fora and fauna are among the country s most vauabe natura assets. Cimate change now threatens this rich biodiversity. Species oss has been observed, whie in some paces, the number of indigenous and important species has tremendousy dwinded. Serious droughts have occurred in the ast 4 consecutive years. Major rivers show severe reduced voumes during droughts, and many seasona ones competey dry up. The consequent crop faiures in 2009 for instance, paced an estimated 10 miion Kenyans or one fourth of the entire popuation at risk of manutrition, hunger and starvation. Droughts reduce the production of not ony stape food crops such as maize but aso other major crops such as tea, sugarcane and wheat. This increases imports (maize, wheat and sugar) and reduces exports (tea), weakening the country s baance of payments. Maaria, choera, eboa, Lyme disease, pague, tubercuosis, seeping sickness, yeow fever, and Rift Vaey Fever are some of the diseases that are expected to spread as temperatures rise and precipitation 10 together we can tacke cimate change

11 beaches coud eventuay disappear as the sea eve rises. Aready, hotes aong the Kenyan coastine have been forced to construct sea was to protect against increasingy strong sea tides. A these do and wi continue to impact negativey on Kenya s tourism sector. Further, cimate change is exacerbating human-widife conficts. Pastoraists in search of pasture and water have encroached into game parks, chasing widife away from their natura habitats. Drought has aso pushed ions and other widife coser to waterhoes and vegetation near to human settements. Submerged huts in Western Kenya. During foods especiay those reated to E-Niño events, environmenta diseases such as typhoid, amoeba, choera and biharzia normay associated with contaminated water and poor sanitation reach epidemic eves in such paces. Photo by Camco Kenya. patterns change. In addition, during foods, diseases such as typhoid, amoeba, choera, and biharzia reach epidemic eves. Disease outbreaks wi further burden the aready stretched pubic heath infrastructure. Popuation dispacement and migration from cimate disaster-prone areas (e.g. drought prone northern Kenya and sea-eve rise in the coasta region) are expected to increase. It is expected that most of those on the move wi be from rura areas heading towards urban aggomerations where assistance, income opportunities and infrastructure may be perceived to be more accessibe and readiy avaiabe. This wi create an enormous socia, heath, infrastructura and management chaenge for cities, subjecting them to unpanned popuation growth. Goba warming is ikey to disrupt and even destroy some of the tourist attractions such as the snow-caps of Mt. Kenya, the coasta rainforests and fragie marine ecosystems. Cora reefs are beaching. The number of famingoes in Lake Nakuru is diminishing due to diminishing water eves of the ake. The great migration of the widebeest across the Mara River is under threat as the river s fow is reduced. Aong the coastine, some of the popuar Changes in ocean circuation are predicted to ead to oss of certain fish popuations or estabishment of new ones. Temperature change may aso resut in changes of upweing patterns, which might impact on fish spawning period and success of arvae, thereby atering the entire ife cyce and size of fish popuation. Cimate change wi aso affect Kenya s energy suppy. Hydropower potentia has dramaticay reduced during the past 20 years due to the destruction of water catchment areas. Cimate change is ikey to worsen the situation as it wi resut in proonged droughts which wi see water eves in the generating dams recede further. The country currenty reies on hydropower for neary 70% of its eectricity. Further, extreme weather events such as rainstorms wi destroy the energy generation and distribution systems. Torrentia rains accompanied by foods can aso destroy roads, bridges, raiway ines and other transportation and communication infrastructure. For instance, the damage caused by the eight-month 1997/1998 E-Niño rains to the country s transport and teecommunication infrastructure was estimated at one biion US Doars. In addition, rising temperatures wi cause warping of rai-tracks. 11 together we can tacke cimate change 11

12 3. Strategic Focus 3.1 Importance of the NCCRS to Kenya As the preceding chapter shows, the direct and indirect impacts of cimate change are aready being fet across the country and there is a high possibiity of increasingy severe changes in the future uness unprecedented measures are taken to reduce emissions of Green House Gases (GHGs). Natura disasters associated with cimate variabiity and change have in the past cost huge osses. For instance, the 1999 and 2000 droughts in Kenya caused damages equivaent to 2.4% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The Stern Report of 2006 predicts that the cost of cimate change in Africa coud be as high as 7-10% of GDP by 2100, whereas a recent study on the economic impacts of cimate change in Kenya has estimated that the annua cost of cimate change impacts wi be in the tune of USD 1 to 3 biion by the year Kenya s abiity to cope with the impacts of cimate change is compounded by many factors incuding poverty, weak institutions, poor infrastructure, inadequate information, poor access to financia resources, ow management capabiities, armed conficts due to a scrambe for diminishing environmenta resources and high interest rates. It is vita that poicies and measures for adaptation to and mitigation against cimate change are put in pace across a the sectors in order to minimise the impending cimate change catastrophe. 3.2 Strategic Focus, Vision, Mission and Objectives The NCCRS s primary focus is ensuring adaptation and mitigation measures are integrated in a government panning, budgeting and deveopment objectives. It has caed for coaborative and joint action with a stakehoders (private sector, civi society, NGOs, faith-based organizations, etc) in tacking the impacts of cimate change. The most vunerabe sectors of the economy namey agricuture, water, energy, forestry, rangeands, heath, socia and physica infrastructure are prioritized for quick and immediate action. The vision of the NCCRS is for a prosperous and cimate change resiient Kenya, whereas the Mission of the Strategy is to strengthen nationwide focused actions by ensuring commitment and engagement of a stakehoders towards adapting to and mitigating against cimate change Strategic Objectives The objectives of the NCCRS are addressed in the first nine chapters of the document and are summarized here as foows:- enhancing understanding of the goba cimate change negotiations process, internationa, agreements, poicies and processes and most importanty the positions Kenya needs to take in order to maximise beneficia outcomes of these negotiations, assessing the evidence and impacts of cimate change in Kenya, recommending robust adaptation and mitigation measures needed to minimise risks associated with cimate change whie maximising opportunities, enhancing understanding of cimate change and its impacts nationay and in oca regions, recommending vunerabiity assessment, impact monitoring and capacity buiding framework needs, recommending research and technoogica needs and avenues for transferring existing technoogies, providing a conducive and enabing poicy, ega and institutiona framework to combat cimate change, and providing a concerted action pan, resource mobiisation pan and robust monitoring and evauation pan. 12 together we can tacke cimate change

13 4. Adaptation and Mitigation Measures Excavation of Mogoe community earth dam, ALRMP, Maindi, 2008 As a response to the chaenges posed by cimate change to Kenya, the Strategy has proposed a number of measures meant to curb the adverse impacts of cimate change on the country (adaptation measures) and to tame goba warming (mitigation measures). 4.1 Adaptation Adaptation measures incude the prevention, toerance or sharing of osses, changes in and use or activities, changes of ocation, and restoration. Adaptation measures that have been proposed in key sectors incude: Heath: construction of a arge number of nomadic cinics; recruitment of more (about 24,000) technica staff to strengthen pubic heath services across the country; heightened surveiance of new outbreaks with consequent rapid responses; and heath education campaigns. Agricuture: provision of downscaed weather information and farm inputs; water harvesting e.g. buiding of sand dams for irrigation; protection of natura resource base (soi and water conservation techniques); and research and dissemination of superior (drought toerant, sat-toerant, pest and disease resistant) crops. Water: construction of dams and water pans; protection of water towers, river banks, and water bodies; de-siting of riverbeds and dams; municipa water recycing faciities; buiding capacity for water quaity improvement, and awareness campaign to promote water efficiency measures. Interventions in the water sector wi have to adapt the integrated approach to water resource management and utiization. In Kenya, this is imbedded in the Integrated River Basin and Large- Water Bodies-based Natura Resource Management Programme of the six regiona basin-based institutions, e.g. the Tana & Athi River Deveopment Authority (TARDA) and the Lake Basin Deveopment Authority (LBDA), etc. Fisheries: deveoping country-wide maps that wi depict areas that require shore protection measures; deveoping financing mechanisms using non-consumptive options for supporting marine ecosystem research and deveopment; and encouraging a coasta and watershed- basin management approach inking and-use practices to marine and fisheries resource conservation. Tourism/Widife: deveopment of a Nationa Widife Adaptation Strategy (a suite of a suite of we assessed cimate change adaptation strategies) by the Kenya Widife Service (KWS) and stakehoders incuding the Word Widife Fund (WWF), the tourism industry, etc; deveopment and enforcement of Green Strategy and Code; and branding of Kenya as a Green Destination. 13 together we can tacke cimate change 13

14 Livestock/pastoraism: deveoping specia ivestock insurance schemes; breeding of animas that adapt we to cimatic vagaries; reguar vaccination campaigns; promotion of economic iveihood diversification, e.g. cutivation of drought-toerant food crops such as miet and bee-keeping for honey production; and awareness campaigns among pastora communities to underscore the importance of baancing stocking rates with the avaiabe and resources as a way of ensuring sustainabe pastoraism. Physica Infrastructure incuding transportation and teecommunication networks: ensuring that the infrastructure is cimate-proof over its ifespan, which incudes carrying out geotechnica site investigations (GSIs) to determine appropriate sites for infrastructure deveopment; factoring a maintenance component into a infrastructura deveopment funds; and designing infrastructure that can withstand the prevaiing cimatic conditions, e.g. structures that can withstand strong winds, tides as we as high temperatures. Socia Amenities incuding human settements: strengthening disaster preparedness; proper panning of urban settements which takes into consideration the expected high growth rate of urban popuation due to cimateinduced migration from rura areas to urban centres; and estabishing insurance schemes to support preparedness in regions susceptibe to cimatic disasters. 4.2 Mitigation Mitigation refers to efforts that seek to prevent or sow down the increase of atmospheric GHG concentrations by imiting current and future emissions and enhancing potentia sinks for GHGs. In Kenya, the sectors associated with high emissions incude forestry (due to forests ogging and and use change), energy, agricuture and transport. The GHG emission trend in Kenya during the ast 20 years is shown in Figure 3. Proposed mitigation interventions incude projects of the Kenya Forest Service s Forestry Deveopment Pan (FDP); Energy Ministry s Green Energy Deveopment; as we as other interventions in the transport and agricutura sectors. Figure 3: GHG Emissions trend in Kenya. The figure foows a typica Environmenta Kuznets curve, i.e. at ow economic growth rates, emissions are ow and vice versa; hence the exponentia growth in emissions particuary from 2000 to date with improved growth rates. The transport sector contributes significanty to these increasing emissions, especiay as a resut of high private car use. Emissions are cacuated based on the capita emissions data from the Internationa Energy Agency (IEA) whie the popuation data is sourced from the Word Bank. As of 2007, Kenya s emissions stood at MtCO2eq. Ony emissions due to combustion are tracked. CO2 emissions in t Per capita emissions in Kenya Year 14 together we can tacke cimate change

15 Instaation of wind turbines on Ngong His. Investing in renewabe energy sources such as wind energy wi enabe Kenya meet its energy needs and contribute to goba initiatives to reduce GHG emissions. Photo by Camco Kenya The Forestry Deveopment Pan (FDP) aims at growing of 7.6 biion trees during the next 20 years. This wi be done by growing of trees by 35,000 schoos; 4300 women groups; 16,350 youth groups, and the six Regiona Deveopment Authorities. Each schoo wi be suppied with a 10, 000 itre water tank to support harvesting of water for the estabishment and management of tree nurseries as we as watering of panted out seedings. In addition, arge scae and owners with at east 50 acres of and wi be encouraged to construct dams for water harvesting and storage in order to support estabishment of irrigated private forests. The Green Energy Deveopment Programme wi seek to take advantage of Kenya s abundant renewabe energy resources. The proven geotherma steam reserves are equivaent to 7000 MW. The north-eastern parts of the country are idea for wind power generation, with Cass I wind 1. The arid and semi arid areas have ong hours of sunshine throughout the year, making them conducive for soar energy capture and utiisation. Kenya has an ampe potentia to grow sugarcane, sweet sorghum, Jatropha and other nonfood crops suitabe for producing biofues. By maximizing these potentias, Kenya can contribute significanty to reduce goba GHGs as we as its unheathy reiance on imported fossi fues. A number of desirabe and impementabe green energy projects have been identified. The Government is prepared to aocate a arge amount of budgetary resources, whie the same time, is seeking support of biatera and mutiatera financia institutions. It wi offer credit and subsidy faciities to private investors to faciitate rapid competion of these projects. The green energy projects are estimated to provide an additiona 2790 MW by Buiding on the success of this programme, it is envisaged that Kenya wi become a Green Economy by In addition, Kenya wi pursue energy efficiency options. Such options incude: (a) mandatory energy audits of arge commercia and industria consumers; (b) review of tax poicies to encourage the importation of energy efficient motor vehices; (c) subsidies and other tax incentives to promote and sustain wider adoption of energy efficient eectrica gadgets such as compact fuorescent ight (CFL) bubs and soar hot water heating; and (d) constructing energy efficient buidings, e.g. buidings that use as much sunight as possibe whie avoiding direct heating from the Sun in order to minimise energy requirement for cooing purposes. 1 Wind speeds are cassified based on Wind Power Density. The wind power density, measured in watts per square meter (W/m2), indicates how much energy is avaiabe at a site for conversion by a wind turbine. Cass I wind (the owest in the ranking) refers to wind power density of ess than 100 W/m2 and 200 W/ m2 at 10 m and 50 m above ground, respectivey. For more information, refer to basicwr.htm 15 together we can tacke cimate change 15

16 An artist s impression of the Bangkok Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) ine. A we deveoped BRT system woud offer a fast, comfortabe and convenient means of movement within a busy traffic metropois such as Nairobi, and woud attract midde-income peope to get out of their cars. Many deveoping countries are deveoping BRT systems to hep them reduce their transport GHG emissions. Photo source: transitmy.org/2010/03/17/dobus-anes-worsen-congestion/ Transport: some of the proposed interventions incude promotion of owcost pubic transport modes such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and other means of mass transport; proper urban and transport panning to faciitate efficient and ow GHG modes of transportation, e.g. decongesting roads; encouraging non-motorised modes of transport (NMT) by creating bikeways and pedestrian wakways; creating transport demand management measures that encourage or favour pubic transport and NMT; estabishing a Light Rai Transit (LRT) aong with the BRT in major cities and towns to hep decongest traffic; and improving the country s raiway network to faciitate ow-cost and ow-carbon ong-distance transportation of cargo and passengers. Agricuture: proposed mitigation measures incude appropriate use of biotechnoogies which increase food production per unit area whie simutaneousy imiting GHG emissions; proper management of agricutura waste e.g. using manure to produce biogas; and promotion of agroforestry especiay tree-based intercropping (TBI) Carbon Markets Deveoping countries (aso known as Non- Annex 1) such as Kenya can choose to undertake mitigation projects in the sectors described above (e.g. energy, transport, agricuture) as we as manufacturing and others. These projects can gain monetariy from carbon markets that aow them to se Certified Emission Reduction (CER) credits to deveoped countries (aso known as Annex 1) to hep the atter mitigate against cimate change cost-effectivey. Certified Emission Reductions are traded through reguated compiance markets under the Kyoto Protoco s Cean Deveopment Mechanism (CDM). Carbon markets aso comprise of the buying of carbon offsets as Verified Emission Reductions (VER) by individuas and organisations who wish to vountariy offset their GHG emissions, i.e. under the Vountary Carbon Markets (VCM). In future, the VCM wi probaby be dominated by the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism. In order for Kenya to participate effectivey in the carbon markets incuding the CDM, the foowing measures wi need to be undertaken: cacuation of the baseine GHG Grid Emission Factor (GEF) for the eectricity grid of Kenya to faciitate CDM projects in the power sector and assist carbon project deveopers and consutants, target capacity buiding for the private sector and investors to increase the knowedge of GHG reduction project deveopment and markets, e.g. deveoping a handbook for CDM Project Activities detaiing the roe of government and the UNFCCC, CDM cyce, types of projects, eigibiity criteria, CDM transaction costs and how to se Certified Emission Reductions (CERs), a government-fronted manua that guides CDM impementation shoud be produced and disseminated. It shoud be paced on a pubic website, as has been done by a number of countries incuding Tanzania, 16 together we can tacke cimate change

17 strengthening reevant institutions such as the Designated Nationa Authority (DNA) and removing barriers to carbon trading such as high initia transaction costs and ow eve of awareness of CDM potentia on the part of private sector, particuary investment and financia organisations, difficut and east viabe (ow hanging fruits first to buid momentum), creating a database of existing projects, emission reduction voumes, other benefits, project deveopers, financiers, government support, and Cearing of natura forests to make charcoa. Providing forestdependent communities with incentives to conserve their forests can enabe them benefit from opportunities offered by the REDD markets. Photo by Camco Kenya providing tax incentives and favourabe import tariffs on technoogy for projects that reduce emissions, having cear energy pricing and CDM project poicies incuding a cear, strong institutiona framework and good governance, ensuring that Kenya estabishes itsef as a cost-effective host country to GHG emission reduction projects, designing a genera ranking of the easiest and most viabe project types to the most exporing ways of integrating carbon markets into the main economy and opening it to conventiona ega and banking systems. Specific recommendations that can enabe Kenya to benefit from REDD opportunities incude: estabishing robust monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) institutiona arrangements (cear credibe nationa forest monitoring baseines and guideines), fiing the historica data gaps on forest cover throughout the country, addressing the risk of non-permanence and eakage as a necessary condition for any parties or entities to participate in a REDD mechanism and activities, estabishing and buiding capacity on REDD methodoogy deveopment especiay strengthening financia support, technoogy transfer and provision for capacity buiding especiay among forestdependent communities, and estabishing and strengthening partnerships between the pubic and private sectors in order to mobiise the necessary finance and acceerate REDD actions. 17 together we can tacke cimate change 17

18 5. Cimate Change Communication, Education and Awareness Programmes Cimate change awareness is ow countrywide. This was evident from the findings of consutative workshops conducted in a the eight provinces of Kenya during the preparation of this Strategy. The need for awareness creation, targeting specific groups and communities, and using different toos and media such as the print and eectronic media, drama, community forums (barazas ) is therefore pressing. Equay important is the incorporation of cimate change into the nation s educationa curricua at different eves, starting with primary through to tertiary institutions. Ways of enhancing cimate change awareness that the Strategy has identified incude the foowing: estabishing a Nationa Cimate Change Awareness campaign. The Nationa AIDS/ STD Contro Programme (NASCOP) mode for sexuay transmitted diseases can be adapted, using print and eectronic media to pass cimate change information in various artices and programmes on cimate change in the media, Education-based entertainment: educating the citizens on cimate change whie entertaining them at the same time through theatrica performances, mainstreaming cimate change awareness in a programmes and projects undertaken by the Government, NGOs, CBOs, media etc, creating cimate change training materia and programmes for target groups of stakehoders and specific groups, i.e. women, men, chidren, youth, peope with disabiities, reigious groups, promotiona activities and sponsorship of events with cimate change themes, e.g. a reward scheme for pupis or individuas who pant trees and maintain them, onine bogging on sites such as Facebook, Twitter, Googe Groups, and Yahoo Groups through which various topics on cimate change coud be discussed, and invoving the corporate sector, especiay the mobie teephone industry e.g. to dispay airtime top-up messages on cimate change. 18 together we can tacke cimate change

19 6. Vunerabiity Assessement, Impact Monitoring and Capacity Buiding A thorough nationwide assessment on how cimate change eements temperature rise, change in precipitation, extreme weather events, sea eve rise and other seasona shifts wi affect phenomena such as foods, drought, water shortages (suppy and quaity), air quaity, human heath, and habitat oss shoud be conducted. The need to conduct cimate change scenarios and deveop corresponding poicy responses on how these changes wi affect human popuation, infrastructure, the environment, the economy and society as a whoe shoud aso be emphasized. In addition to vunerabiity assessments, periodic monitoring and assessment of the status of key natura eco-systems wi be required to design appropriate response measures that can check against their degradation and preserve them for the sake of current and future generations. Periodic determination of eves of GHG emissions wi aso have to be undertaken in order to identify high-emissions sectors and areas where significant GHG reductions can be reaised. Such GHG emissions data coud aso feed into the Nationa Communications as required under the UNFCCC. A targeted capacity-buiding framework is recommended in the areas of science, poicy, adaptation, mitigation, technoogy generation, carbon finance and markets to strengthen the human resource capita base for these subjects. These incude, among others: capacity buiding and support for the modernisation and deveopment of nationa meteoroogica services e.g. the Kenya Meteoroogica Department and IGAD Cimate Prediction and Appications Centre (ICPAC), strengthening panning and capacity deveopment initiatives to reduce risk, prepare and recover from disasters incuding strengthening institutions in charge of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) cope with cimate disasters, capacity buiding in the use of georeferenced demographic and socioeconomic data, in addition to setting up a GHG reduction poicy and toos, strengthening the Designated Nationa Authority (DNA), incuding additiona personne, and buiding the capacity of oca communities to enabe them adapt to the adverse impacts of cimate change. 19 together we can tacke cimate change 19

20 7. Research, Technoogy Deveopment, Absorption and Diffusion Research produces improved oca crop and ivestock breeds with higher productivity and disease resistance. (Source: KARI, undated) The Strategy has identified specific sectora research needs as a response to the impacts of cimate change. In the Agricutura sector, research areas incude the deveopment of superior (drought-toerant, fast-maturing, disease and pest-resistant) crop varieties; countrywide assessments to determine regiona vunerabiity of the sector to cimate change eements; and strengthening research in vaccines against priority ivestock diseases and inocuants for improving soi nitrogen and phosphorous in acid sois as we as enhancing soi bioogica resources, among others. In the Energy sector, priority research areas incude energy efficient innovations and technoogies, and both ow-carbon appiances and toos; the deveopment of eco-friendy energy resources such as wind, soar, biogas, sma hydros, etc; as we as research on the sustainabiity of biofues especiay Life Cyce Assessment (LCA) of biodiese. In the Forestry sector, research areas entai evauating the potentia for remunerating natura resource users for natura forests conservation and restoration with funds from carbon markets (e.g. under a REDD+ scheme); deveoping technoogies to rehabiitate naturay degraded areas or those ceared for charcoa burning; and vaidation as we as integration of indigenous knowedge and technoogies in woodands management. In the Heath sector, research areas wi encompass assessing the risks of popuations to cimate change impacts (incuding short and ong-term pubic heath effects of e.g. extreme weather events) using cimatedisease prediction modes, and identifying the most effective interventions; the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map the spatia distribution of interacting risk factors and other critica data, and to communicate research resuts effectivey to poicymakers, stakehoders and the pubic; and innovative research to produce vaccines against diseases such as maaria, choera and others whose outbreaks wi intensify with cimate change. In the Water sector, areas in which research is needed are on intensified hydroogic cyce predictions as these have a direct effect on the spatia and tempora distribution of rainfa and therefore the quantity of fresh water avaiabe for domestic, commercia 20 together we can tacke cimate change

21 and industria use; assessment of watersheds and water resource vunerabiity due to hydroogica cyce changes; and assessment of the potentia impacts of cimate change on water, waste-water and storm-water infrastructure incuding risk exposure of key infrastructura nodes to weather extremes and the impact of rising sea eve on coasta water infrastructure. In the Fisheries sector, research shoud be focus on supporting vunerabiity assessments of aquatic, coasta and marine ecosystems to determine resiient regions and species to be accorded conservation priority; evauating current and-ocean interactions and the impact of their changes on fisheries resources; and assessing the socioeconomic impacts of cimate change on the iveihoods of fishing and coasta communities, among others. In the Rangeands and Widife sector, priority research areas are assessing current and future cimate change threats and risks to widife in order to formuate the aforementioned Nationa Widife Adaptation Strategy. This wi invove: carrying out sensitivity anaysis, and projecting how these indicators wi affect rangeands resources incuding widife in the future. In addition to research in the priority sectors highighted above, information documentation and dissemination are important to ensure that different stakehoders take appropriate action to respond to the chaenges presented by cimate change. To this end, one of the key priority areas wi be improving nationa coordination of information through enhancing packaging and expediting timey dissemination. Further, efforts shoud be made to support technoogy generation and absorption through institutiona capacity buiding; research and deveopment; and technoogy transfer from the industriaised countries to Kenya. To this end, the Strategy has identified some of the channes through which technoogy deveopment, absorption and diffusion can be achieved, which incude: through the Kyoto Protoco s CDM or its future successor, anaysing the current cimate variabiity in margina rainfa areas, through the United Nations Industria Deveopment Organization (UNIDO), identifying rainfa homogenous areas, acceerating South-South partnerships, identification and anaysis of cimate risk factors, coecting and anaysing historica data on cimate induced impacts in rangeands, coecting and anaysing data on cimate induced and human disturbances in rangeands, acceerating North-South transfers through Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) incuding taking advantage of patent-free technoogies, estabishing oca technoogica innovation centres which wi hep strengthen institutiona technoogy generation and transfer through earning-by-doing approach, and assessing the socioeconomic dynamics and activities of the communities iving in and around widife protected areas, assessing the current human-widife conficts, and incuding cimate change research and deveopment in a budgets of Ministries with substantia aocations to institutions of higher earning to strengthen research capacities. 21 together we can tacke cimate change 21

22 8. Cimate Change Governance An anaysis of existing environmenta poicy and ega framework currenty in pace to guide cimate change activities in Kenya has been performed. It has reveaed that Kenya currenty has no poicies or aws that dea directy and expicity with cimate change. The ony poicy that has attempted to address cimate change to some extent is the draft Nationa Environmenta Poicy of The same is true of the egisative framework, with the nationa environmenta aw, the Environmenta Management and Coordination Act (EMCA, 1999), ony having certain provisions reevant to mitigation of cimate change, but not effectivey addressing severa aspects of the probem. The Strategy therefore recommends that a comprehensive cimate change poicy and reated egisation be put in pace. This coud be achieved by either reviewing and updating the causes on cimate change in the draft Nationa Environmenta Poicy or deveoping a competey new cimate change poicy. This shoud be foowed by a review of existing aws (in particuar, the Environment Management and Coordination Act, EMCA of 1999) to make them cimate change responsive and/or enactment of a new and comprehensive cimate change aw. However, the Strategy recommends that a new cimate change egisation be enacted, a process that coud run concurrenty with formuation of a cimate change poicy. In addition, the Strategy has estabished that institutions currenty in pace to govern cimate change affairs are inadequate. It has consequenty recommended that a dedicated and adequatey funded Cimate Change Secretariat be estabished within the Ministry of Environment and Minera Resources to oversee cimate change issues incuding the impementation of the adaptation and mitigation programmes and the other aspects of the Nationa Cimate Change Response Strategy. This Secretariat, incuding the proposed structures within it (see figure 4 beow), shoud be anchored on the provisions of the new cimate change aws to be enacted. Further, in reation to cimate change governance, it is recommended that the Nationa Cimate Change Activities Coordinating Committee (NCCACC) continue to perform its current advisory capacity. It is further proposed that MEMR estabishes a Nationa Cimate Change Steering Committee to hep it gather and coate input and advice from key cimate change stakehoders for its use in the coordination of Kenya s cimate change activities. The Cimate Change Secretariat to be estabished at MEMR wi provide secretaria functions for the two committees. The Cimate Change Coordination Unit (CCCU) at the Office of the Prime Minister wi continue to provide high-eve poitica support to cimate change activities in Kenya. 22 together we can tacke cimate change