India s SD challenges. Arabinda Mishra

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1 India s SD challenges Arabinda Mishra

2 WHAT IS A SD CHALLENGE?

3 The SD challenge

4 Rio +20, 2012 The Future We Want: eradicating poverty the greatest global challenge. and an indispensable requirement for SD green economy. as one of the important tools available for achieving SD and that could provide options for policymaking but should not be a rigid set of rules need for an improved and more effective institutional framework for SD (decision to establish a high-level inter-governmental political forum) SDGs to complement MDGs beyond 2015

5 Public policy and SD Decision making is different from the rational actor model for three reasons: Objectives are not given beforehand, the very definition of the goals and objectives being part of the decision-making problem itself. No single decision-maker but a plurality of decision-makers, each with his or her own preferences, objectives, expectations and beliefs. Assessment of the costs and benefits is much more difficult for sustainability issues than for normal businesses.

6 What characterizes sustainability issues? Three key features inherent to all sustainability issues: Externalities(spatial, inter-temporal, social) Uncertainty Complexity of social-ecological systems

7 Complexity and wicked problems Wicked problems: Difficult to clearly define; different stakeholders have different versions of what the problem is Often multi-causal and have many interdependencies; often involves trade-offs between conflicting goals May lead to unforeseen consequences Often not stable; policymakers have to focus on a moving target Usually have no clear solution; solutions are not verifiably right or wrong but rather better or worse or good enough Socially complex; involve changing behaviour No clear responsibility of any one organization

8 The resilience perspective The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self organization, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change. (IPCC 2007) More simply, and with respect to policy and practice, a state of preparednessto keep dealing with both the known and the unknown

9 INDIAN CONTEXT POPULATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND EXCLUSION

10 Population India projected to be the most populated country in the world by 2025 Close to 50% of the population will be living in urban areas by 2040 The demographic dividend will not be realized in the absence of large scale jobs and skills creation Economic inequality emerging as the biggest challenge for public policy

11 : Jobless growth? Country GDP growth (%) Employment growth (%) Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka South Asia median

12 Urbanization In India No. of towns Towns UAs Outgrowths As per Census 2011, for the first time since independence, the absolute increase in population is more in urban areas than in rural areas 53 Million Plus UAs/Cities housing cities(42.6% of the urban population of India 377 million persons live in the urban areas of the country, constituting 31.16% of total population 2011 Census 2001 Census Source: Census of India, 2011

13 Urban population in South Asia Country Last 60 years Next 30 years Urban populatio n (million) % of total populatio n Urban populatio n (million) % of total populatio n Urban populatio n (million) % of total populatio n Additional urban population (million) Additional urban population (million) Banglades h India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Total ,

14 The big social transition in India: rise of the middle income class The middle class with their discretionary consumption patterns creates increased demand for material and energy intensive products With growing demand, India has changed from being a net exporter to net importer, with import growths dominated by fossil fuels and metals (UNIDO 2011). India s total material demand is estimated to increase from its current level of 2 billion tonnesto more than 4 billion tonnesby 2030 under GDP growth rate assumption of 8 percent. The demand for materials would further increase to almost 10 billion tonnesby 2050 if the India is expected to grow annually at a rate of 6 percent.

15 Poverty and inequality Country Poverty Inequality Access to electricity Year Headcoun Headcou % GINI Year % Year t at USD 1.25/day nt at USD 2/day increase Banglade sh Bhutan India Nepal Pakistan

16 % of population at risk of caloric inadequacy Figure 1: Prevalence of 'hunger' in S Asia Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan

17 Country/Region Development and exclusion in South Asia: focus on energy Total Ecological Footprint (global hectares per person): Internal Water Footprint of Consumption (m3 per person per year): Per capita CO2 emission (metric tonne) World High-income countries Development Middle-income countries pathways have 1260 Low-income countries 1.. to promote Bangladesh inclusiveness Bhutan as the India Nepal paramount goal Pakistan Per capita primary energy consumption (kgoe)

18 People lacking access to electricity Number of people lacking access to electricity (in million) Number of people relying on traditional use of biomass for cooking (in million) Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Developing Asia China India Other Asia Latin America Developing Countries* World Source: World Energy Outlook 2011

19 ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE

20 PC-EPI Criteria Indicators No. AIRPOL NOx, SOx, SPM/RSPM 3 WATER - quality % Sewage Treatment and River water quality (DO & TFCC). FOREST TFC as % of state GA & contribution to National average, increase in forest cover, area under Protected Area Network (PA) and Afforestation efforts WASTE % MSW, Bio-med., and Industrial Haz. Waste collected and disposed. Climate change Existence of SDMAs, % of Renewable Energy including Hydel Prod. in Total Energy Consumption, and GHG emissions- (CH4) entric. TOTAL

21 Air Quality Ambient Air Quality indicators considered for measuring the performance are sulphur dioxide (SOx), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and Respirable Suspended particulate Matter (RSPM) for which standards have been notified. States meeting the Standards were assignedascoreof1.0. Pondicherry, Goa, Kerala, and Mizoram, with scores of 1.0 are ranked as States with better air quality

22 Uttarakand West Bengal A & Nicobar Chandigarh D & NH D& Diu Lak'dwp Pondi Bihar Chhattisgarh Delhi Goa Gujarat Harya na H. Pradesh J&K Jharkhand Karnataka Keral a M. Pradesh Mahara shtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sik kim Tamil Nadu Tripura UP A. Pradesh Aru. Pradesh Assam Fig-4- AAQ Scores and Ranking scores

23 Water Quality Percent Sewage disposal and water quality of rivers viz; Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Total Feacal Coliform Count (TFC) have been considered under water quality. Except for Himachal Pradesh, and Goa, no States show any semblance of adherence to river water quality prescribed.

24 Fig-5 Water quality scores and Ranking Bihar Chhattisgarh Delhi Goa Gujarat Harya na H. Pradesh J&K Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala M. Pradesh Maharashtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Tamil Nadu Tripura UP Uttarakand West Bengal A & Nicobar Chandigarh D & NH D& Diu Lak'dwp Pondi A. Pradesh Aru. Pra... Assam scores

25 Forestry-Indicators percent Total Forest Cover (TFC) of state GA and contribution to national forest cover change in forest cover during 2003 to 2009, Protected Area (PA) network of the state GA & contribution to national average, and yearly average afforestation effort during 2006 to Uttarakhand, Chandigarh, Mizoram, Sikkim and Manipurareranked 12,3 4and5respectively

26 Fig-6 Score and Ranking of forests 0 Chhattisgarh Delhi Goa Guja rat Harya na H. Pradesh J&K Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala M. Pradesh Mahara shtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sik kim Tamil Nadu Tripura UP Uttarakand West Bengal A & Nicobar Chandigarh D & NH D& Diu Lak'dwp Pondi A. Pradesh Aru. Pra... Assam Bihar Sco res

27 Waste Management-indicators 1. Municipal Solid Waste Collection efficiency, 2. Treatment and disposal capacity for hazardous wastes, and 3. Biomedical waste capacity set up for treatment Chandigarh, Sikkim, Haryana, AP and Mizoram are ranked 1-5 with respect to solid waste management.

28 Fig-7 Scores and ranking -Wastes management Chhattisgarh Delhi G oa G ujarat Harya na H. Prade sh J&K Jharkhand Karnataka Keral a M. P radesh Mahara shtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sik kim Tamil Nadu Tripura UP Uttarakand We st Bengal A & Nicobar Chandigarh D & NH D& Diu Lak'dw p Pondi A. Prade sh Aru. Pra... Assam Bihar Sco res

29 Climate Change-Indicators 1. Existence of a separate State Disaster Management Authority (SDMAs), 2. Percentage of Non-conventional Energy including Hydro in Total Energy Consumption, and 3. State's GHG emissions i.e CH4 (Methane) from entric sources.

30 Fig-8 Scores and Ranking for Climate change Bihar Chhattisgarh Delhi Goa Gujarat Harya na H. Pradesh J&K Jharkhand Karnataka Kerala M. Pradesh Mahara shtra Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Orissa Punjab Rajasthan Sik kim Tamil Nadu Tripura UP Uttarakand West Bengal A & Nicobar Chandigarh D & NH D& Diu Lak'dwp Pondi A. Pradesh Aru. Pra... Assam Scores

31 TN UP D&NH D & Diu Laksh Pondi A & N Chandi Uttara W Bengal Tripura Punjab Rajasthan Sikkim Orissa Final ranking Mah. Manipur Meghal Mizoram Nagaland M. P H. P J&K Jhark Karna Kerala Bihar Chhattis Delhi Goa Gujarat Haryana A. P Aru. P Assam

32 CLIMATE CHANGE

33 State-level trends for Indian climate:

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35 Risk implications for India Threat to economic growth in multiple ways Increased stress on natural resource systems (especially water resources) New challenges to coping capacity at community level (e.g. unanticipated impacts on human health; increased frequency and severity of extreme events) Cascading impacts across sectors may lead to major adverse outcomes (e.g. cc impacts on water-energy-food nexus leading to food security issues) May force significant diversion of financial resources to risk reduction and management Can lead to widening disparity in human development achievements across population groups May emerge as a major governance challenge, especially because of low awareness among stakeholders, lack of information, and weak institutional capacities

36 IN CONCLUSION

37 Green growth as articulated in Indian policy Green growth involves rethinking growth strategies with regard to their impact(s) on environmental sustainability and the environmental resources available to poor and vulnerable groups. (para3.15, Thirteenth Finance Commission Report)

38 The three major challenges to SD in India Promoting inclusiveness in our patterns of production and consumption Managing the urban transition without weakening the rural social and ecological foundations Building resilience in social, economic, and ecological systems to risks arising out of environmental and climate change

39 TIP of the day Technology Priority to resource efficient and low carbon technologies Focus on the co-benefits approach Institutions Need for transparency and stakeholders participation in decision-making & monitoring Focus on creating capabilities Policy Needs to be enabling, incentives-based Focus on cross-sector convergence, integrated approach to programme design and implementation

40 THANK YOU