Development of Potential Drought Damage Index in Consideration of a Resilience Concept

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1 , pp Development of Potential Drought Damage Index in Consideration of a Resilience Concept Byung-Sik Kim 1,, Suk Ho Lee 2, Jin Hyuck Kim 3 1 Department of Urban & Environmental Disaster Prevention School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University, 346 Joogang-ro, Smacheok-si, Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea Abstract. This syudy aims to calculate the potential drought damage index that takes a resilience concept into consideration. To introduce the resilience concept, an ability to respond to drought and the vulnerability index were calculated. For drought risk index, ability to respond index, and other matters, hydrological drought index (by stream flow drought index (SDI)), humanistic and social factors and life, agriculture and agricultural supply, and groundwater recharge quantity were considered in that order. For vulnerability index, humanistic and social factors, life, shortage of agricultural water, and meteorological factors were considered in that order. The potential drought damage index (PDDI) was calculated using SDI, ability to respond and vulnerability index were determined as well, and applicability was verified through a comparative analysis with a period of actual drought. Keywords: Resilience, Drought, SDI, Vulnerability, ability to respond 1 Introduction Disaster prevention has been performed so far to effectively prevent a disaster when it occurs. For this, among advanced countries, the resilience concept, which considers how soon people affected by a disaster can return to their normal lives when a disaster occurs, is drawing great attention. Resilience, in terms of disaster prevention, does not refer to elasticity but restoration to original condition. In other words, when potential drought damage index (PDDI) that takes the resilience concept into consideration can be calculated, it will be possible to calculate indices that consider not only a situation of natural drought in a region in question but also the ability to respond to the drought, vulnerability, etc. Once the PDDI that incorporates the resilience concept is created, it can be utilized in establishing a total disaster prevention system that takes humanities, life, agriculture, and industries into account, 1 Professor (1 st author), Department of Urban and Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University, Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea; hydrokbs@kangwon.ac.kr 2 Research professor, Department of Urban and Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University, Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea; esoco@kangwon.ac.kr 3 Master course(corresponding author), Department of Urban and Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University, Gangwon-do, Republic of Korea; E- mail: jin830@kangwon.ac.kr ISSN: ASTL Copyright 2016 SERSC

2 not a short-sighted disaster prevention that only focuses on natural disasters. Accordingly, this study aims to calculate a PDDI that considers the hydrological drought index, ability to respond, and vulnerability index to develop a drought index to which the concept of resilience has been introduced. Fig.1. Flow chart 2 Theoretical background The calculation of PDDI requires the degree of drought risk, ability to respond and the vulnerability index. For the degree of drought risk, the streamflow drought index (SDI) calculated with the monthly streamflow that can reflect rainfall and hydrological drought was utilized, instead of a drought index calculated through existing data on rainfall. The SDI can be calculated as follows. mk m V i,km = Q i,j j=1 i(year) = 1,2,, j(month) = 1,2, 12, m(duration) = 1,3,6,12 k m = [(m = 1: 1,2,,12), (m = 3: 1,2,3,4), (m = 6: 1,2), (m = 12: 1)] (1) Q i,j = Monthly flow V i,km = During the kth period in the ith year, the cumulative discharge Calculate the SDI for k periods of a given ith year using cumulative discharge SDI i,km = V i,k m V km (2) S km i(year) = 1,2,, k m = [(m = 1: 1,2,,12), (m = 3: 1,2,3,4), (m = 6: 1,2), (m = 12: 1)] V km and S km represent the mean and standard deviation of cumulative discharge, and Critical level is the mean of V km For the ability to respond, humanistic and social factors, factors of life, agricul 96 Copyright 2016 SERSC

3 ture and industry and other factors were reflected; the calculation method is as follows. aws + bfi + ccs + ddw + eawp + fawf + gawl + hiwp + iiwf + jgr a + b + c + d + e + f + g + h + i + j (3) a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k = Weight of indicator WS=Daily Water Supply FI=Financial Independence rate CS=Civil Servants rate Dw=Supply Domestic Water AWP=Agricultural Water Supply_Paddy field AWF = Agricultural Water Supply_field AWL = Agricultural Water Supply_Livestock IWP =Industrial Water supply_plan IWF= Industrial Water supply_free GR=Groundwater recharge On the other hand, for the vulnerability index, humanistic and social factors an d factors of life, agriculture, and industry were reflected, and the calculation m ethod is as follows. avp + bmt + cat + dhwr + eawr a + b + c + d + e (4) a, b, c, d, e = Weight of indicator VP=Under 13 years old and below 60 years old population Mt=Highest annual temperature At=Average annual temperature Hwr= Domestic Water deficiency Aw= Agricultural Water Supply deficiency PDDI calculation method is as follows. PDDI = vulnerability index + ( SDI) ability to respond (5) 3 Application and Result The PDDI was calculated from October 2006 to September 2015 according to the hydrological year by calculating the hydrological drought index, ability to respond, and vulnerability. As a result of the calculation, it was found that the PDDI figure was high from October 2014 to December In addition, the validity of the index was verified by consulting references when comparing with the droughts in 2014 and that in Copyright 2016 SERSC 97

4 Fig. 2. PDDI by city and district 98 Copyright 2016 SERSC

5 Fig. 3. Drought literature survey for Conclusion The purpose of this study was to calculate the potential drought damage index (PDDI), which can reflect the ability to respond of the resilience concept as well as vulnerability in addition to the existing hydrological drought index. To reflect the ability to respond, humanistic factors and factors of life and industry were applied, whereas humanistic factors and factors of life and agriculture were considered to reflect vulnerability. It is expected that the calculated PDDI will help establish a total disaster prevention system that considers not only natural disasters but also humanistic and social factors. Acknowledgments. This study was carried out by the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (14AWMP-B ). References 1. Unsung, J., Lee, B.R., Sung, J.H.: Comparison of Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts in Seomjin-River Dam Basin. Korea Society of Disaster Prevention (2014) 2. Han, W.S., Yu, J.: Establishment of resilience in response to climate change disaster. National policy brief. (2015) 3. Han, W.S.: The concept of resilience in the field of disaster prevention and the application trend in the US. Water and the Future. (Vol ) 4. Yu, S.Y., Kim, S.W., Kim, J.M..: Assessment of Disaster Resilience for Disaster Risk Management. The Magazine of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation. (2014) 5. Sin, J.Y., Kim, T.W.: To prevent drought disasters Hydrological drought and Understanding Drought Vulnerability. The Magazine of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation. (2015) Copyright 2016 SERSC 99