Great Lakes Water Levels: State of the Science. Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P.E.

Transcription

1 Introduction 1 / 33 Great Lakes Water Levels: State of the Science Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P.E. drew.gronewold@noaa.gov Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan March 2014

2 2 / 33 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction

3 2 / 33 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations

4 2 / 33 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level drivers

5 2 / 33 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level drivers 4 Water level modeling and projections

6 3 / 33 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level drivers 4 Water level modeling and projections

7 Introduction 4 / 33 Name Country Surface area Volume (km 2 ) (mi 2 ) (km 3 ) (mi 3 ) Michigan Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029 Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900 Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2, Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500 Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23,600 5,700 Great Bear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2, Malawi Multiple 30,044 11,600 8,400 2,000 Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2, Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9, Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9, Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1, Table: Water volume and surface area of Earth s largest (ranked by surface area) fresh surface waters. From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change.

8 Introduction 5 / 33 Name Country Surface area Volume (km 2 ) (mi 2 ) (km 3 ) (mi 3 ) Michigan Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029 Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900 Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2, Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500 Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23,600 5,700 Great Bear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2, Malawi Multiple 30,044 11,600 8,400 2,000 Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2, Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9, Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9, Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1, Table: Water volume and surface area of Earth s largest (ranked by surface area) fresh surface waters. From: Gronewold, Fortin, Lofgren, Clites, Stow, and Quinn (2013). Climatic Change.

9 6 / 33 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level drivers 4 Water level modeling and projections

10 Introduction 7 / 33 From: NOAA National Ocean Service (CO-OPs).

11 Introduction 8 / 33 Water level dynamics:

12 Introduction 9 / 33 Water level dynamics: long-term

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16 Introduction 11 / 33 Water level dynamics: mid-term

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30 20 / 33 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level drivers 4 Water level modeling and projections

31 Introduction 21 / 33 :

32 Introduction 22 / 33 : hydrologic cycle

33 Introduction 22 / 33 : hydrologic cycle From: USEPA (1990), Great Lakes Atlas.

34 Introduction 22 / 33 : hydrologic cycle From: USEPA (1990), Great Lakes Atlas.

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36 Introduction 24 / 33 : hydrologic cycle From: USEPA (1990), Great Lakes Atlas.

37 Introduction 24 / 33 : hydrologic cycle From: USEPA (1990), Great Lakes Atlas.

38 Toronto Montreal Chicago Niagara Falls New York Philadelphia

39 Toronto Montreal Chicago Niagara Falls New York Philadelphia

40 White Shoal Lighthouse: Lake Michigan Photo courtesy Dick Moehl (Lighthouse Keepers Association)

41 Introduction 28 / 33 : hydrologic cycle From: USEPA (1990), Great Lakes Atlas.

42 Introduction : isostatic rebound From: Mainville and Craymer (2005), GSA Bulletin. 29 / 33

43 30 / 33 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level drivers 4 Water level modeling and projections

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52 Introduction 33 / 33 Great Lakes Water Levels: State of the Science Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P.E. drew.gronewold@noaa.gov Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Michigan March 2014