Renewable Grid Integration Assessment Overview of Thailand Case study

Transcription

1 Renewable Grid Integration Assessment Overview of Thailand Case study Peerapat Vithayasrichareon, Energy Analyst System Integration of Renewables Grid integration of variable renewable energy, ACEF Asia Clean Energy Forum 218, Manila, 5 June 218 IEA 1 OECD/IEA 218

2 IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis at a glance Over 1 years of grid integration work at the IEA - Grid Integration of Variable Renewables (GIVAR) Programme - Use of proprietary and external modelling tools for techno-economic grid integration assessment - Global expert network via IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and GIVAR Advisory Group - Part of delivering the IEA modernisation strategy Technical Framework, Technology, Economics Policy Implementation Progress & Tracking 2 OECD/IEA 218

3 Thailand grid integration project overview Thailand s Ministry of Energy (MOEN) has officially requested the IEA to provide support on the study of the impact of variable renewable energy (VRE) and mitigation strategies under the project Thailand grid renewable integration assessment. It aims to assist the main stakeholders through workshops, discussions/meetings, detailed study and analysis - Energy policy and planning - System operators transmission and distribution levels - Energy regulatory commission 3 OECD/IEA 218

4 Objectives of the project Support the reliable and cost-effective uptake of RE generation in Thailand - Identifying barriers to renewable deployment and integration challenges as well as proposing possible options in addressing these challenges; Provide support by sharing international and regional best practices in integrating renewables - Drawing upon the IEA s network of international experts; Conduct quantitative and qualitative analysis on the impact and value of renewables in the power system; Facilitate national and international dialogue through capacity building workshops and trainings. 4 OECD/IEA 218

5 Analysis components of the project 1. Existing power system context 2. Grid impact assessment 3. Distributed solar PV 4. Power sector planning and VRE system costs VRE phase assessment for existing system Qualitative assessment of suitability of existing grid codes for VRE Analysing options to accommodate RE integration Contractual and technical flexibility Technical potential of rooftop PV in Thailand Economic impacts of PV Recommendations and action priorities Assessment of power sector planning in Thailand System cost and cost benefit analysis Each work stream provides insights and recommended actions for Thailand Grid Renewable Integration 5 OECD/IEA 218

6 Future power system scenario assumptions for 236 Detailed 3-minute power system model Validation scenario - Based on the 216 system - Provides a baseline for comparison Core scenarios in Base scenario (Power Development Plan) - Assumed higher shares of wind/solar to assess possible integration challenges Operational and contractual flexibility option scenarios - Gas and power purchase contract, - power plant operational characteristics, - DSM, EV, storage Core Scenario Description Annual shares For validation, 3GW solar Current (216) ~3% and 6 MW wind Base case PDP 215 target of 6 GW 6% (236) solar and 3 GW wind RE1 (236) 12 GW solar, 5 GW wind 12% RE2 (236) 17 GW solar, 6 GW wind 15% RE2 scenario (236) Site selection based on Resource potential proximity to transmission other considerations 6 OECD/IEA 218

7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Modelling used for the analysis Thailand power system model built in the PLEXOS - 3-min demand data, for 7 regions - Dispatchable generator operating parameters: VRE Share (%) 25 - Ramp rates, min/max gen, heat rates, min up/down times - Hydro energy constraints with seasonality - Transmission 23 and 5 kv - 3-min wind & solar generation Base Case RE1 Case RE2 Case Solar Wind Annual Average (VRE) 7 OECD/IEA 218

8 Detailed analysis of wind, solar output reveals complementarity Load (MW) 6 VRE Generation (MW) Wind (CAC) Wind (NAC) Wind (NEC) Wind (SAC) Solar (CAC) Solar (MAC) Solar (NAC) Solar (NEC) Solar (SAC) Load Net Load There is a high contribution of solar towards a midday peak demand while the wind profile generally ramps up during the late evening 8 OECD/IEA 218

9 Generation pattern during minimum load period Base Base RE1 Generation/Load (MW) RE1 Generation/Load 3 (MW) Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec : 6: 12: 18: 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec : 6: 12: 18: : 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec : 6: 12: 18: 31 Dec : 6: 12: 18: : Nuclear Solar Coal Wind Biomass Load and waste Other Net gasload CCGT GT (diesel) CCGT (OC mode) Hydro Solar Wind Load Net Load The system can meet demand reliably during the most challenging weeks, but this requires flexible operations of including steep ramping and cycling of coal plants. 31 Dec 6: 31 Dec 6: 31 Dec 12: 31 Dec 12: Nuclear Coal Biomass and waste Other gas CCGT GT (diesel) CCGT (OC mode) Hydro RE2 RE2 31 Dec 18: 31 Dec 18: 9 OECD/IEA 218

10 Impact on dispatch of reduced minimum generation RE2 core scenario Generation/Load (MW) (MW) 3 3 RE2 RE2 31 Dec 31 Dec31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec : : 6: 6: 12: 12:18: 18: RE2 low minimum generation RE2 + RE2 Plant + Plant Flexibility Flexibility 31 Dec31 Dec 31 Dec31 Dec 31 Dec31 Dec 31 Dec31 Dec : :6: 6: 12: 12: 18: 18: Nuclear Nuclear Coal Coal Biomass Biomass and waste and waste Other gas Other gas CCGT CCGT Hydro Hydro Solar Solar Wind Wind CCGT CCGT (OC mode) (OC mode) GT (diesel) GT (diesel) VRE curtailment VRE curtailment Load Load Net load Net load Reduced minimum generation of power plants allows increased deloading of thermal generation (mostly coal but also other gas) while it is still available to increase output as net demand increases 1 OECD/IEA 218

11 Demand Side Response from Electric Vehicles Load (MW) Generation/Load (MW) 6 EV Load (MW) 3 Generation/Load (MW) 6 Price (THB/MWh) May : 14 May 12: RE2 15 May : 15 May 12: 16 May : RE2 with EVs 16 May 12: May : 15 May 6: 15 May 12: 15 May 18: 15 May : 15 May 6: 15 May 12: 15 May 18: FUEL OIL NUCLEAR COAL GAS DIESEL HYDRO BIOMASS_WASTE WIND SOLAR Load EV Load Price (THB/MWh) Demand response can shift load to periods of abundant supply, while reducing demand during evening hours. 11 OECD/IEA 218

12 Cost benefits of additional flexibility options Total savings per cost component (% of operating costs) RE2 with Plant Flexibility RE2 with 8 MW battery RE2 with Flexible EV charging RE2 with Flexible Industrial Loads RE2 with RE2 with all Pumped Flexibility Storage Hydro Options (except 4MW battery) Fuel Cost Ramp Cost Start & Shutdown Cost Import Hydro Cost VO&M Cost Total Additional flexibility options allow for further cost savings when integrating higher shares of renewables, with fuel cost savings due to additional plant flexibility having the biggest impact 12 OECD/IEA 218

13 Key findings operational, economic and institutional aspects Grid impact assessment - Much more ambitious solar and wind energy targets are possible from the operational aspect. - Net ramping requirements increase with higher shares of VRE generation - Power purchase and gas supply contracts limit currently available flexibility - DSM, EV and storage and reduced min generation are cost-effective flexibility options Distributed PV - Roof-top availability is no relevant constraint to uptake of distributed solar PV - Electricity tariff reform is required to ensure a long-term, sustainable uptake of distributed PV Power system planning and system cost assessment - Move towards more integrated planning will be beneficial - Flexibility options can improve system integration and reduce system costs 13 OECD/IEA 218

14 IEA 14 OECD/IEA 218

15 1) Existing power system context Items Grid integration context Grid connection codes Renewable energy control centre Approaches VRE phase assessment for Thailand Qualitative assessment of suitability of existing codes for VRE Role, best practices and Thailand context for implementation of RE control centre The Thai electricity system is flexible technically, but institutional and contractual constraints limit mobilising this flexibility 15 OECD/IEA 218

16 Grid Impact Assessment Items VRE Impacts on system operation Flexibility options to accommodate VRE integration VRE integration phase assessment for 236 Approaches Detailed 3-minute power system model Scenario analysis of flexibility options (power plant, DSM, EV, storage) Assessment of modelling results in the context of integration phases Thailand s future electricity system has sufficient flexibility options to accommodate a reasonable share of VRE generation, but some required advanced planning to provide benefits. 16 OECD/IEA 218

17 3) Distributed solar PV Items Technical potential of rooftop PV in Thailand Economic impacts of PV Recommendations and action priorities Approaches Measurement of rooftop area and generation estimates Evaluation of the impact on the utilities Cost benefit analysis for setting purchasing tariff Available roof-top area is no relevant constraint for distributed PV, but changes to tariff structures are needed to ensure that costs and benefits are shared fairly 17 OECD/IEA 218

18 4) Power sector planning and VRE system costs Items Assessment of power sector planning in Thailand System cost and cost benefit analysis Approaches Detailed qualitative assessment of the PDP process Quantitative analysis of the system costs of VRE in the context of the future Thailand system Planning processes show room for improvement. Solar PV and wind can reduce customer bills, but only if their cost in Thailand is reduced to international benchmark levels. 18 OECD/IEA 218

19 Effect of renewable generation on conventional generation Generation share 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Base RE1 RE2 SOLAR WIND CCGT THERMAL GAS OPEN-CYCLE MODE NUCLEAR DIESEL HYDRO COAL CHP BIOMASS WASTE As shares of VRE increase, it predominantly displaces CCGT generation. 19 OECD/IEA 218

20 Maximum 3-hour ramping 3-hour ramps (% daily net peak load) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Base RE1 RE2 The highest 3-hour ramps vary from a maximum of 39% of daily peak load in the Base to 62% in RE2 2 OECD/IEA 218

21 Cost benefits of flexible gas supply contracts Total savings per cost component (% of operating costs) -2 2 RE1 RE2 Fuel Cost Import Hydro Cost Ramp Cost Start & Shutdown Cost VO&M Cost Total % additional cost Inflexible long term gas contracts can potentially prevent significant fuel cost savings (up to ~14% in the RE2 scenario), though it is slightly offset by higher cycling costs 21 OECD/IEA 218