THE POWER SYSTEM IN THE EYE OF THE STORM: Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in the Caribbean

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1 THE POWER SYSTEM IN THE EYE OF THE STORM: Energy Resilience and Climate Adaptation in the Caribbean Mark Lambrides Senior Energy Specialist February 22, 2018 Institute of the Americas - Webinar

2 What does climate resilience mean for the energy sector? Climate resilience: ability of the energy system to cope with or recover from a hazardous event, trend, shock or stress that is climate related; such as hurricanes, rising sea level, increasing temperature, flood and the like. 2

3 SUMMARY Mapped the impact of storms Evaluated the vulnerabilities of the power system Helped develop solutions for enhancing energy resilience Led to Energy Resilience for Climate Adaptation Project (ERCAP)

4 Keith (2000) Source: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration 4

5 HURRICANE DEAN 5

6 Hurricane Dean (2007) Landfall 21st of August, 1:45 a.m. All clear 21st of August, 1:00 p.m. Wind speed: at least 165 mph, CAT 4 at landfall Districts affected by power failure: Corozal, Belize and Orange Walk 6

7 kwh 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Instantaneous and Significant Impacts brought System to near Total Blackout Main events Dean landfall 1:45 Impact of Dean on Hourly Dispatched Generation San Pedro Distribution line 00:32 Feeder 1 tripped affecting 870 customers for 23 hours 00:47 Feeders 2, 3 & 4 tripped affecting 3,139 customers for 14 hours Corozal Distribution line 01:12 Feeder 2 tripped affecting up to 3,277 customers for 4 to 6 days 01:57 Feeder 1 tripped affecting 2,063 customers for 4 days 02:12 Feeders 3, 4 & 5 tripped affecting up to 5,426 customers for 4-6 days Orange Walk Distribution line 02:36 Feeder 1 tripped affecting 450 customers for 19 hours 02:50 Feeder 4 tripped affecting 612 customers for 33 hours 03:35 Feeders 2 & 3 tripped affecting 4,782 customers for 18 hours Cayo, Belize, Toledo and Stan Creek districts Transmission line 06:23 System outage in various districts affecting 49,525 customers for 2-4 hours Hour Source: Belize Electricity Limited 7

8 Caused Near Black-Out of System CFE CFZ Corozal San Pedrito Buena Vista 1) Fault in CFE substation in Mexico 2) Northern transmission lines fail Orange Walk Maskall San Pedro San Pedro Caye Caulker 3) CFE Supply & West Lake PPs unable to fully dispatch La Democracia Ladyville Belize City 4) Hydro Becol PP dispatch reduced; Hydro Maya PP unable to dispatch San Ignacio Camalote Belmopan West Lake Mullins River Dangriga 5) Only Caye Caulker isolated system remained fully operational Mollejón Chalillo Only 1612 kwh/3.5% of normal dispatch* in the grid; More than 64,000 customers (88%)** lost power completely Hydro Maya Savannah Independence * Compared to the same hour in the previous week; ** Based on the 2014 customer base information Punta Gorda

9 Estimated Loss of nearly US$ 5 Million in GDP and BEL Losses 2007 nominal GDP in Belize: US$ 1,290,542,550 BEL s total net generation of electricity: 438,708,589 kwh Total Estimated Loss of Revenue for BEL: US$ 339,436 Estimated GDP value-added per kwh consumed: US$ 2.94 per kwh Estimated USE due to Hurricane Dean: 1,624,100 kwh Total estimated lost value (GDP + BEL) due to Hurricane Dean: US$ 511, 7387 ( US$ 2.94/kWh x 1,624,100 kwh + 339,436) 9

10 Segmentation can Isolate Faults CFE CFZ Corozal San Pedrito Buena Vista 1) Fault in CFE substation in Mexico 2) Northern transmission lines fail Orange Walk BELCOGEN (since 2009) z z z z Maskall San Pedro San Pedro Caye Caulker If today, segmentation at Belcogen SS would isolate T-Failure In 2007, segmentation at Maskall SS would isolate T-Failure No segmentation Ladyville Belize City La Democracia Camalote West Lake Mullins River Belmopan San Ignacio Dangriga Mollejón Chalillo Most generators able to dispatch About 7,000 13,000 or 9% - 18% of customers effected (instead of 64,000 or 88%) Hydro Maya Punta Gorda Savannah BAPCOL (since 2009) Independence

11 Vegetation management matters. 1) Tree fell on western transmission line between Democracia and Camalote Orange Walk CFE BELCOGEN CFZ Corozal San Pedrito Buena Vista Maskall San Pedro San Pedro 2) Failure of transmission lines in the West & South Ladyville Caye Caulker La Democracia Belize City 3) Western lines recovered quickly; southern lines disabled for 21 hours San Ignacio Camalote Vaca Mollejón Chalillo Belmopan West Lake Mullins River Dangriga 7,552 customers in the South lost electricity (9% of customer base) Hydro Maya Savannah BAPCOL Independence Punta Gorda Source: Belize Electricity Limited

12 OECS Power Systems are Vulnerable BARBUDA: Hurricane Irma (2017) destroyed the entire electrical grid and severely damaged the island s generation assets. Estimate damage amounts to nearly $130 million. DOMINICA: Hurricane Maria (2017) damaged about 98 % of the power transmission and distribution (T&D) network. GRENADA: Hurricane Ivan (2004) caused damages to 80% of electricity distribution system, left 75% resident w/o power, damages of $26m and losses of $8m. ANTIGUA: Hurricane Earl (2010) led to significant outages mostly due to fallen trees on power lines. SAINT LUCIA: TS (2013) produced excessive rain & flooding leading to T&D damages leaving 15% customers without power. DOMINICA: TS Erika (2015) led to wide power outages from heavy rainfall and strong winds; landslides damaged hydro plant; damages US$ 2m and losses of $0.3m 12

13 Hurricanes Irma & Maria 13

14 Economic Losses from Extreme Weather Ranks OECS in the Top 20 Globally 9 8 Average Annual Years Losses per GDP (%) (US$78 mn) (1) Grenada (US$37 mn) (5) Dominica (US$45 mn) (6) St. Kitts & Nevis (US$47 mn) (7) AB (US$11 mn) (15) St. Vincent (US$17 mn) (20) St. Lucia (#) indicate Global Ranking of 183 countries and territories evaluated Losses (in PPP) are average figure ( ) Source: Climate Risk Index ( ) In 2017, Irma caused damages estimated at 14% of Antigua and Berbuda s GDP and Maria caused damages estimated at 226% of Dominica s GDP

15 Caribbean Energy Resilience Program Objective Objective: Provide timely support to OECS utilities and policy-makers to accelerate efforts to build power networks which are resilient to extreme weather and climate-related risks as well as design rapid response and recovery mechanisms to tackle future extreme weather events. 15

16 Scale-up Integrated Framework Approach in the Caribbean Integrated Framework to Enhance Resilience of Energy System to Adverse Weather & Climate Change Impacts Enhance System Resilience Rapid Response & Recovery Planning & Operations System strengthening Emergency Response Recovery & Reconstruction Source: Ebinger and Vergara Climate Impacts on Energy Systems. World Bank. 16

17 OECS Work Program On-Going Assessments - Conduct Energy System and Climate Risks Vulnerabilities Assessments for select Caribbean Islands 1. Climate Risk Assessments - Identify Vulnerable Energy Infrastructure and future key disasterprone areas in each country that are likely to be impacted from extreme weather and climatic activity. 2. Power System/Utility Assets Vulnerability Assessments - Identify key risks associated with power generation, transmission and distribution systems 3. Gap Analysis in Utility s Prior and Post Disaster Preparedness - Identify gaps in utilities existing disaster preparedness plan. 4. Evaluate ways in which Climate Adaptation and Energy Resilience can be Mainstreamed in Long-term planning Output: Comprehensive and customized recommendations for enhancing energy resilience and climate adaptation leading to country-specific resilient infrastructure investments 17

18 Integrated Framework to Enhance Resilience of Energy System to Adverse Weather & Climate Change Impacts Enhance System Resilience Rapid Response & Recovery Planning & Operations System strengthening Emergency Response Recovery & Reconstruction Long-Term Energy Planning for Climate Adaptation Segmentation of Transmission Network - Installation of breakers & insulators Collection of meteorological and hydrological data - Installation of MET and HYDRO-MET monitors Improved operational and dispatch capabilities - Real time hydro and weather data access for dispatch management - Back-Up control center Transmission and Distribution system strengthening - Underground lines and/or deploy resilient poles and wires - Redundancy of lines - Improve resiliency of substations Strengthen generation infrastructure - Elevate/protect/relocate generation assets from risks - Distribute and diversify generation resources (RE and batteries) Improve emergency response plan - Preparedness plan and institutional protocols - Inventory of spare parts - Training of linemen - Regional response teams - Outage management system Preventive measures and emergency repair access - Vegetation management plan Improve awareness and communication during emergencies - Enhance communication system and establish resilient back up Source: Ebinger and Vergara Climate Impacts on Energy Systems. World Bank. Recovery and Reconstruction Financing - Establish comprehensive insurance/guarantee to be deployed post disaster - WB tools: Guarantees, Lending, CAT DDO, ERL Improve emergency recovery and reconstruction plan - Damage assessments to guide investments in mitigation of future impacts 18