Western s Use of the GT-MAX Model. Sam Loftin - General Engineer Western Area Power Administration - CRSP CSC

Transcription

1 Western s Use of the GT-MAX Model Sam Loftin - General Engineer Western Area Power Administration - CRSP CSC

2 Introduction

3 Discussion Topics Overview of Western Area Power Administration Overview of the CRSP CSC Overview of Glen Canyon Environmental Process Overview of Western s customers and contract arrangements How we use the GT-MAX model Long-term Replacement Power

4 Overview of Western Area Power Administration

5 Background Western is an agency of the U.S. Government, Department of Energy Established in 1977 during energy crisis to increase emphasis on energy One of four Power Marketing Administrations covering most of U.S

6 Multipurpose Water Development Projects Irrigation water storage and distribution Hydroelectric Power Generation and Transmission - revenue source Flood Control Recreation Wildlife

7 Multipurpose Water Development Projects (Continued) Irrigation water storage and distribution

8 Multipurpose Water Development Projects (Continued) Hydroelectric Power Generation and Transmission - revenue source

9 Multipurpose Water Development Projects (Continued) Flood control

10 Multipurpose Water Development Projects Recreation (Continued)

11 Wildlife Multipurpose Water Development Projects (Continued)

12 What Western does Market Hydroelectric Generation - over 10,000 MW at 55 power plants 45,800 GWH energy sales and $740,000,000 revenue last year Deliver power over 27,123 km high voltage transmission system 638 wholesale customers in 3.38 million square km service area

13 Map of Western service area and regions

14 Background of CRSP CSC 1,855 MW installed capacity 8,698 GWH energy and $176,000,000 revenue last year 3,843 km of high voltage transmission line 125 wholesale customers

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16 Firm power customers Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects

17 CRSP CSC Power Resources

18 Glen Canyon Dam Capacity: 1356 MW Generation: 6,626 GWh

19 Flaming Gorge Dam Capacity: 152 MW Generation: 767 GWh

20 Morrow Point Dam Capacity: 156 MW Generation: 366 GWh

21 Blue Mesa Dam Capacity: 96 MW Generation: 296 GWh

22 Crystal Dam Capacity: 28 MW Generation: 210 GWh

23 Fontenelle Dam Capacity: 13 MW Generation: 79 GWh

24 Other Generation Resources Upper Molina - 9 MW, 32 GWh Lower Molina - 5 MW, 15 GWh Elephant Butte - 28 MW, 109 GWH Towaoc - 11 MW, 9 GWh McPhee - 1 MW, 1 GWh Deer Creek - 5 MW, 37 GWh

25 CRSP Transmission System (map)

26 Glen Canyon and Flaming Gorge Environmental Processes

27 Endangered species Bony Tail Chub Colorado Squawfish Humpback Chub Razorback Sucker

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29 (Photo of Grand Canyon Beach)

30 Changes in operations at Glen Canyon Dam Operational Constraint Minimum release (cfs) Maximum release (cfs) Daily fluctuations (cfs/24 hrs) Historic Flows (Pre-1991) 3,000 summer 1,000 rest of year ROD Flows (Post 1997) 31,500 25,000 28,500 summer 30,500 rest of year 8,000-7 am - 7 pm 5,000 at night 5,000; 6,000; or 8,000 depending on release volume Ramp rate (cfs/hr) Unrestricted 4,000 up 1,500 down

31 Releases at Glen Canyon

32 Lost Capacity

33 Overview of Power Contracts CRSP CSC share of customer load averages about 25% Cost of hydro power is generally much less than other customer resources CRSP CSC delivers whatever hydropower is available based on hydrological forecasts

34 Overview of Power Contracts (continued) Hydro capacity is two-thirds of that previously available Available Hydro Power varies monthly Power delivered at significantly higher load factor Total price paid by customers varies

35 Overview of Power Contracts (continued) Customers have choice of replacing remainder up to contracted amount Replace it themselves (purchase or self generation) CRSP CSC replaces it on short term (6 months) CRSP CSC replaces it on long term (30+ months)

36 Available Hydro Power Determination Estimate available hydro power for upcoming 6 months from water forecasts using GT-MAX Apportion power to each customer, notify them, and find out their purchase needs Determine purchases by CRSP CSC Merchant Function Water forecasts are updated monthly, so hydropower forecasts updated monthly

37 Graph of one week output from model July Load vs. Generation Case 18b (Load Sensitivity) MW 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Day of Week Load Generation 50% AHP 100% AHP

38 Non-Reimbursable Expense Determination Law allows power customers to not repay costs for Glen Canyon test flows Model normal operations without test flows in GT-MAX Compare revenue from normal operations to actual operations Difference in revenue is nonreimbursable

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42 Non-Reimbursable Expense Determination (continued) CRSP CSC modeled operation for Determined difference between normal and actual operations Saved power customers $43 Million between 1993 and 1997 CRSP CSC will also model any future test flows

43 Upcoming Flaming Gorge and Aspinall EIS CRSP CSC will study changing operations at Flaming Gorge and Aspinall Compare cost of operational changes and impact to power customers using GT-MAX Use information from GT-MAX in negotiations on preferred alternative Preserve maximum generation/operational flexibility possible

44 Long Term Replacement Power Replace hydropower lost to operational constraints on long term Customers have choice of short-term, long-term, or self replacement Customers have choice of amount and timing of replacement power

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46 Long Term Replacement Power (continued) RFP for supply and/or demand-side resources Evaluate costs quantitatively on a uniform $/MWh basis Evaluate non-cost factors qualitatively

47 Long Term Replacement Power (continued) Use GT-MAX to model vendor proposals integrated into CRSP CSC power system Determine optimum proposal(s) to minimize purchase costs Customers declined to participate in long term replacement because of cost

48 CRSP CSC Merchant Function Merchant Function schedules hydro power resources to meet loads Purchases from regional spot market Sells surplus hydro power to spot market Looks for opportunities to buy and sell at profit

49 CRSP CSC Merchant Function (continued) Use GT-MAX to optimize hydro power operations (amount, location, timing) Increase revenue, decrease purchase costs, optimize limited hydro resource

50 Conclusion Western has found many different uses for GT-MAX in power system planning and operations GT-Max is well suited for analyzing changes to operations at Hydro plants and optimizing generation