Energy Market Update. Mark Finley Meet Alaska, January 21, 2011

Transcription

1 Energy Market Update Mark Finley Meet Alaska, January 21, 211

2 Agenda Where we ve been Trends in global energy Where we are: The short-term outlook Why has oil been different? Where we are going (or might be!): The long-term outlook Prospects for oil & gas The policy case and implications

3 Global energy: Changing center of gravity, but fossil fuels still dominate Billion toe Billion toe Non-OECD * Renew ables Hydro Nuclear Coal 4 2 OECD 4 2 Gas Oil * Includes biofuels Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

4 Coal has gained market share Shares of world primary energy 5% Oil 4% 3% Coal 2% 1% Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables* % Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy * Includes biofuels

5 Ample oil and natural gas proved reserves Oil Natural Gas Trillion bbls Trillion m Canadian oil sands Other OECD FSU OPEC 2 15 OECD Other Middle East FSU Mexico North Sea Note: Canadian Oil Sands are remaining established reserves, less reserves under active development (from 1999 only) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

6 Energy prices: Oil has been different $/boe 16 Oil (WTI) Gas (Henry Hub) Coal (Basket) Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Source: includes data from Platts and McCloskey.

7 Oil demand outpacing supply 3 Mb/d, y-o-y Global Consumption OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC OPEC Crude Q9 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1

8 Non-OPEC growth slows; OPEC holds steady Non-OPEC changes OPEC-11 crude production cuts Mb/d, y-o-y 2 US Other OECD ROW Net FSU Biofuels Other Change since Sept 28, Mb/d Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1-3.5 Oct-8 Apr-9 Oct-9 Apr-1 Oct-1

9 What drives prices at the pump: Crude Annual change ($/gal) 1. Crude Oil Retail Diesel

10 23: Non-OECD drives consumption growth Billion toe Billion toe * Renewables Hydro 1 1 Nuclear Non-OECD OECD Coal Gas Oil * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 23

11 Natural gas, renewables gain share Shares of world primary energy Contributions to growth 5% Oil 2.5% Renewables* 4% 2.% Hydro 3% Coal 1.5% Nuclear 2% Gas 1.% Coal Gas 1% Hydro.5% Oil Nuclear Renewables* % % * Includes biofuels Energy Outlook 23

12 Non-OECD power, industry drive growth Growth of world energy consumption 21-3 Billion toe by sector and region Billion toe by sector and fuel Other Non-OECD Middle East Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Transport Industry Other Final energy use China & India OECD Inputs to power Transport Industry Other Final energy use Gas Biof uels Oil Coal Inputs to power Energy Outlook 23

13 Liquids: Demand from non-oecd; supply from OPEC and biofuels Mb/d Demand Supply 15 1 Other S&C Am 23 level Other Iraq 95 Mid East Other Asia Oil Sands Biofuels Saudi NGLs 9 85 China Brazil FSU OECD Declines Non- OECD Grow th 21 Non- OPEC Grow th Non- OPEC Declines OPEC Grow th Energy Outlook 23

14 Natural gas the fastest-growing fossil fuel Bcf/d Production Bcf/d Consumption 5 2.1% p.a. 5 S & C America 4 4 North America 3 2.4% p.a. 3 Middle East 2 2 Europe FSU 1 1 Asia Africa Energy Outlook 23

15 Mixed implications for import dependence Mtoe OECD Europe US China Oil & Gas Consumption 1% 75% 75 5% 5 25% 25 Oil & Gas Production % Net imports as % of consumption (rhs): Oil Gas Energy Outlook 23

16 Alternative: Stronger policy action on climate change CO 2 emissions from energy use Sources of carbon abatement versus Base Case, 23 Billion tonnes CO Base Case Iraq 5.4 billion tonnes reduction 22 CCS 23 3 Policy Case Fuel switching 25 IEA 45 Scenario * Energy efficiency * a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 45 ppm from IEA, World Energy Outlook 21 Energy Outlook 23

17 Conclusions Where we ve been: Energy mix dominated by fossil fuels Where we are (short-term): Oil supported by OPEC cuts Where we re going (longer-term): Energy dominated by rapidly-growing emerging economies Weak oil consumption growth; role of OPEC & biofuels likely to grow Natural gas the fastest-growing fossil fuel; share of renewables likely to rise as well Policy important to the base case; more aggressive policy could begin to reduce CO2