Climate Change and Hydro Power Potential in the Region and the World

Transcription

1 1 Climate Change and Hydro Power Potential in the Region and the World Lasantha Jayasinghe Eco Power Holdings Limited, Sri Lanka Sustainable Hydropower Development Conference in Medellin, Colombia

2 INTRODUCTION 2

3 CLIMATE CHANGE RISK CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASINGLY POSES ONE OF THE BIGGEST LONG-TERM THREATS TO INVESTMENTS. Christiana Figueres, Secretary of the UNFCCC 3

4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND POTENTIAL RISK TO THE HYDROPOWER SECTOR Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) typically have a term of 20 to 30 years: Have sufficient analysis of problematic climate change trends addressed? Wet zones will receive more rainfall while dry areas will likely become more drier: Can Operational Hydro Power plants harness the excess water or plant damage could even result? Example: Recently, Sri Lanka experienced rainfall exceeding 500 mm within 24 hours and some Power Houses also were flooded. 4

5 WILL THE WET GET WETTER AND THE DRY DRIER? NOAA GFDL Climate Research 5

6 Asian Regional Climate Change Trends Observed Changes in Extreme Climate Change Increasing tendency in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events associated with El-Niño were reported to be more frequent and intense in the past 20 years Significantly longer heatwave duration has been observed in many countries of Asia, as indicated by pronounced warming trends and several cases of severe heatwaves Frequency of occurrence of more intense rainfall events in many parts of Asia has increased, causing severe floods, landslides, and debris and mud flows while the number of rainy days and total annual amount of precipitation has decreased Increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in many parts of Asia are attributed largely to a rise in temperature particularly during the summer and normally drier months Cruz, R.V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa, Y. Honda, M. Jafari, C. Li and N. Huu Ninh, 2007: Asia. ClimaChange 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. 6

7 CLIMATE CHANGE AND POTENTIAL RISK TO THE HYDROPOWER SECTOR Sri Lanka has experienced declining rainfall during the past two decades. Gradual decline in the rainfall pattern is a cause for concern for hydropower producers in this region Map of Sri Lanka Source: Eco Power Records 7

8 CLIMATE CHANGE AND POTENTIAL RISK TO THE HYDROPOWER SECTOR The energy generation of10 hydropower operating plants established in Central and Sabaragamuwa Province, Sri Lanka. Source: Eco Power Generation Records 8

9 CLIMATE CHANGE AND POTENTIAL RISK TO THE HYDROPOWER SECTOR 2016 had the lowest recorded generation, when considering all the operational hydropower plants in Sri Lanka. The decline is estimated to be 40% to 50% compared to the average annual generation during the last 16 years. Source; Ceylon Electricity Board Records, Sri Lanka 9

10 POTENTIAL RISK TO THE ENVIRONMENT AND LIVELIHOOD 10

11 ENVIRONMENTAL AND LIVELIHOOD IN SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT The Principle of Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol (HSAP) adds value to hydropower development; Takes into consideration not only the technical and the economic aspects, but also environmental and social aspects Is a very important tool to help communicate how a project is performing, to determine where improvements can be made, and to inform project decisionmaking 11

12 ENVIRONMENTAL AND LIVELIHOOD IN SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT Environmental and social safeguard policies- Environmental and Social Impact Assessments (ESIAs); Are effective only if the enabling environment exists. The features that allow this enabling environment are several-fold; The enabling environment needs to be conducive The stakeholders need to act in concert to bring about a sustainable and environmental friendly context for small hydropower generation 12

13 ENVIRONMENTAL AND LIVELIHOOD IN SUSTAINABLE HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT Conventional tools such as EIAs, might not guarantee that all adverse impacts on affected persons and the ecosystems are addressed in the long term, if not implemented properly due to institutional and other failures This could be further exacerbated by the effects of climate change Overall sustainable and environmental friendly small hydropower projects can be a reality only if the stakeholders act in concert to provide the needed enabling environment In the further context of climate change they can only be effective if sufficiently accounting for potential climate change related impacts 13

14 FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR THE HYDROPOWER SECTOR Environmental Impacts to Lower Efficiency of Existing Plants Deforestation in upper catchment areas causes heavy soil erosion and causes siltation in the catchment area. Siltation in many of the major reservoirs, significantly reducing their water holding capacities Poor infiltration due to deforestation and it s impact to lower power generation. 14

15 FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR THE HYDROPOWER SECTOR High Level Consideration of Environmental Flow and Water Abstraction Many hydropower projects developed in Sri Lanka during the latter part of the 19th Century have not undergone proper analysis for environmental flow (E-Flow) The biggest impact is that several potential projects have been developed as cascade projects, and hence rivers become dry for long stretches During the past two decades, due to the inconsistency in the hydrology analyses and the absence of a structured framework for regulating E-Flow, there has been a considerable risk for the ecosystem Developers try to minimize the E-Flow as much as possible in order to maximize the generation potential 15

16 FUTURE CHALLANGES THE HYDROPOWER SECTOR Reliable Hydrology Analysis While Taking into Account Imminent Climate Change The biggest challenge that hydrologists are faced with; Lack of gauging and data gaps Inconsistency of the available data Failure to achieve the estimated energy production recommended in the Hydrology Studies E.g.: Feasibility Study carried out for the River Nyamindi in the Central region of Kenya There was a huge gap between the correlation of the readings of the two available gauges All these data had to be closely scrutinized and verified prior to finalizing the Hydrology Study, and it took over a year to conclude the Hydrology Study 16

17 HYDRO POWER POTENTIAL STATUS Hydropower potential of selected countries within the South and Southeast Asian region in 2016 Country Installed Capacity as at 2016 (MW) Economically Feasible Potential (MW) Sri Lanka 1, Bhutan 1,615 23,760 Nepal ,000 Laos 4,168 23,000 Indonesia 5,258 75,000 Myanmar 3,140 53,500 Pakistan 7,320 50,000 International Hydropower Association 2016 Hydropower Status Report 17

18 HYDRO POWER POTENTIAL AND NECESSITY FOR SUSTAINBILITY Potential in the South Asia Region The Himalayan region has considerable hydropower potential, which is concentrated in Nepal, Bhutan and India s northernmost states. Tapping the vast hydropower resources in the region, will be critical in order to meet the region s rapidly growing demand in a costeffective and sustainable manner. Nepal Bhutan Laos Myanmar In Southeast Asia, much of the new hydropower capacities are being developed to harness the existing potential and reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and related energy import costs and risks. Sri Lanka Pakistan 18

19 "WHY" HYDROPOWER IS STILL GOOD/VIABLE Helps fight climate changes. Fundamental instrument for sustainable development. Avoid carbon emission to the atmosphere and reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Does not consume finite natural resources, and does not irreparably harm the environment. Fits the concept of renewable energy source. Makes it feasible to utilize other renewable sources. Stimulate guaranteed energy and price stability. Storage of water, protect the water tables against depletion and reduce our vulnerability to floods and droughts. Improve the stability and reliability of electricity systems Clean and cheap energy for today and for future Contribute to development 19

20 CONCLUSIONS Countries where there is very little hydropower potential to be harnessed should give top priority to overcoming these hydrology issues in order to economise the available hydropower resources Carrying out more research-based studies related to potential climate change risks prior to making an investment decision is important in future to adequately inform the financiers Better management of catchment areas and upper catchment areas may help reduce potential impacts Water collection and release plans, reservoir and dam maintenance and reconstruction plans will need to consider potential climate change effects, especially potentially more frequent and/or intense heavy rainfall periods and flood situations Thorough hydrological analysis needs to now include both hydrology and climate change - hydrology studies need to also consider climate change effects on future hydrology Studies. Further, forward-looking government policies need to be in line with hydropower investment-friendly environment so as to attract new investments for the sector to develop this low-carbon renewable resource 20

21 Thank You Lasantha Sampath Jayasinghe Project Engineer Eco Power Holdings Limited 21