The Norwegian Nature Index - measures state and trends of biodiversity and ecosystems. Signe Nybø Research Director

Transcription

1 The Norwegian Nature Index - measures state and trends of biodiversity and ecosystems Signe Nybø Research Director

2 Objectives of the work given by the Ministry of Environment in 2007 Get an overview of state and trends of biodiversity Easy to communicate Scientifically sound Involve relevant institutions with biodiversity data Involve group of statisticians Increase the understanding of the need for more biodiversity monitoring

3 Where is information on biodiversity located? In their brain, and in their computer. How is it communicated to society? Through diverse reports, publications, medias The integrated picture might be hard to get

4 Nature Index Thematic indices Only natural species, no alien species Values scaled 0-1, where 1 is intact ecosystems

5 Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi target Indicators possible to calculate using the NI methodology 4 Population trends of utilized species, including species in trade 5 Degradation of natural habitats; population trends of habitat dependent species in each major habitat type 6 Population trends of target species and bycatch aquatic species 7 Population trends of forest and agriculture dependent species in production systems 9 (Impacts of invasive alien species on extinction risk trends) 12 Trends in abundance of selected species 15 Status and trends in species that provide ecosystem services

6 What is the Nature Index? An online system for storing and displaying ecological information on the state of ecosystems Scientific community Public & Managers Ecological information on the state of indicators Synthetic information Online database Output website

7 Information flow - nature index framework Index Small game populations 0,8 0,4 NI Nature Index Framework tn ijk S ijktn W ijkt 0,0 Index 0, Forest 0,4 0, Indicators Researchers from various research institutes (Environment, Agriculture, Forests, Marine) Experts

8 An expert or an expert group for each indicator that decides on baseline, and values and uncertainties for each year in focus to be entered online in database Expert judgement Monitoring data Models based on data

9 What kind of data do we have for the Nature Index? 2010

10 Calculating the Nature Index The Nature Index is a composite index that includes many individual indicators. Marine-, terrestrial-, and freshwater ecosystems Indicators are scaled (0 1) in relation to a baseline (reference state) Then combined and weighted to produce an index that aims to assess the state, and trends in the state, of major ecosystems

11 The mathematical structure of the Nature Index: a weighted average 4 axes: States Weights i - indicators, j - major habitats k - spatial units t - time NI tj ik S ijkt W ijkt Each indicator is associated with an uncertainty which is combined into the final index The index may in principle be made across any combination of these 4 axes, according to the question of interest

12 States are calculated by scaling indicators by their reference value: State (scaled value) S<1 S=1 The reference is a minimum value Observed value All States are dimensionless numbers, expressed on a 0-1 scale

13 Indicators are weighted, to increase representability

14 Examples of results

15 The state of major ecosystems in 2010 as calculated by NI (308 indicators and 9 major ecosystems)

16 Thematic index on the effect of a pressure on biodiversity: Acidification in freshwater Group all indicators sensitive to acidification:

17 THEMATIC INDEX on an ecosystem characteristic: the food web structure 2010

18 Examples from the Output Website (prototype, public version launched October 2015)

19 Trend for Moose (scaled in 0-1) Choose an ecosystem (ex: forest) All this information comes from the inputs of a dedicated scientist who works with moose monitoring in Norway Choose an indicator (ex: moose) Map at a given date

20 Information is displayed only for kittiwake colonies

21 state and trends of the major ecosystem sea bottom

22 . Nature Index and (remaining) ecosystem capacity to produce ecosystem services Intact ecosystem: 1 Society s prioritized use of specific ecosystem services: Management target Deterioration of nature that reduces ecosystem capacity: Nature Index value Remaining ecosystem capacity for «basket» of ecosystem services: Deteriorated ecosystem: 0

23 Implementation of the Nature Index in other areas Pilot projects in the arctic area marine mammals Arctic Nature Watch Pilot project in Costa Rica, IPBES Lithuania, EEA Bulgaria?++ Costa Rica NI CAFF NI Svalbard

24 If you are interested in collaboration A database for entering data on indicators online is available 2. A module for automatic calculation of indexes (written in R) is available Can be transferred to other countries/ regions for free Some costs: Training has to be provided by NINA in methodology, software and statistical calculations NB: Must be adapted to local needs (e.g. species/ indicators, ecosystems, area in focus, language etc.)

25 What is needed at the country or region level to implement the NI? A project coordinator. Local database expert. SQL database. Identification of ecosystem(s) Decide digital polygons for the smallest unit in focus (Municipalities/ grid ). Organizing experts Identify an expert/ expert group Identify indicator list together with experts Enter data into the database

26 Summary Nature Index is a framework for communicating expertsknowledge on biodiversity to the society. NI presents an overview/synthesis of state and trends of biodiversity based on this knowledge Weighted average of scaled indicators Uncomplicated and transparent framework Facilitate an intuitive interpretation of results Based on researchers' participation

27 Thank you for the attention! Involved Research institutes: Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA) Norwegian Forest and Landscape Institute Norwegian Institute for Agricultural and Environmental Research (Bioforsk) Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA) Marine Institute NTNU University Museum Statistics Norway Financed by Norwegian Environment Agency / Ministry of Climate and Environment