Greg Hathaway Energy Source Holdings, LLC

Transcription

1 Greg Hathaway Energy Source Holdings, LLC

2 WEATHER THE PICTURE TO THE RIGHT SHOWS THE WINTER HAS BEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. SINCE 2008 THE NATIONAL TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL SIX TIMES THE COLDEST OLD MAN WINTER IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT TWO WINTERS. IF SUMMER HEAT DOES NOT APPEAR WATCH OUT BEARISH for Natural Gas

3 LNG SABINE PASS LNG TERMINAL DELIVERIES WERE ROBUST FROM FEBRUARY 8TH TO 23RD NORTH AMERICA ADDS SURPLUS TO LNG GULF COAST LNG WILL GO TO BRAZIL AT $4.25 LNG SUPPLIERS MITIGATE RISK AND HEDGE ONE LNG SHIP IS 3.5 BCF = LIFE OF BARNETT SHALE WELL, EACH SHIP GOES 100 TIMES A YEAR BULLISH ---- Natural Gas

4 STORAGE INVENTORY IF WE RUN OUT OF STORAGE CAPACITY MORE WILL BE BUILT LIKE WE SAW IN OVERALL STORAGE IS 54% FULL 826 BCF AHEAD OF LAST YEAR 2,453 BCF LEFT IN STORAGE 38% > 2015 SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER COULD BE GOOD MONTHS TO SHUT IN TO AVOID LOW PRICES BEARISH ---- Natural Gas

5 U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATION MIX GRAPH PROVIDES DYNAMICS OF POWER USAGE. COAL IS SHRINKING AS RENEWABLES GROWS 5% OF COAL PLANTS RETIRED IN 2015 CARBON EMISSIONS POLICY COAL VS. NATURAL GAS APRIL 1, 2016 NATURAL GAS NOMINATIONS INCREASES FLEXIBILITY FOR GENERATORS BULLISH ---- Natural Gas

6 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DEMOCRATS WANT MORE RENEWABLE ENERGY REPUBLICANS WANT LESS OVERSIGHT NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY SHOULD WANT TOUGH COAL RESTRICTIONS EPA AND FERC APPOINTMENTS BY PRESIDENT JOB CREATION WOULD BE BULLISH Bernie/Hillary ---- BEARISH Natural Gas

7 EXPORTS TO MEXICO AND CANADA ONTARIO AND EASTERN CANADA ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF LOW COST SHALE GAS EXPORTS TO MEXICO ARE 7 BCF/D 2014 AND 8.5 BCF/D BY 2020 AUGUST 2015 NEXTERA BOUGHT PIPELINE TO MEXICO FOR $2.1B WITH CAPACITY OF 3 BCF/D FERC CREATES EXPORT FEE TO PAY FOR WALL BULLISH ---- Natural Gas

8 FORWARD PRICE AT HENRY HUB GRAPH PROVIDES WEEKLY NATURAL GAS PRICE SINCE 1991 PRICE BROKE OLD SUPPORT $1.684 FEB 99 $1.62 JAN 95 $1.25 JAN 92 $1.02 NYMEX SETTLEMENT MARCH 2016 $1.711 LAST TIME IT WAS THIS LOW MARCH 99 $1.666 BULLISH ---- Natural Gas

9 MARCELLUS AND UTICA SHALE THE PRICE CHART PROVIDES THE DAILY WHOLESALE PRICE AT THE INTERSTATE FOR MARCELLUS NATURAL GAS THE BASELOAD PRICE IN 2015 HAS BEEN BELOW $1.15 EIGHT TIMES WITH THE 12 MONTH AVERAGE PRICE BEING $1.08 Marcellus Shale Price $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 $0.70 THE MARCELLUS AND UTICA GAS HAVE MADE IT $0.60 TO THE GULF COAST AND MIDWEST MARKETS $ Oct BEARISH ---- Natural Gas 31-Oct 30-Nov 30-Dec 29-Jan 28-Feb

10 RIG COUNT AND PRODUCTION BAKER HUGHES CHARTING OF THE NATURAL GAS RIG COUNT IS THE MOST BULLISH STATISTIC LACK OF DRILLING WILL REDUCE SUPPLY DAILY PRODUCTION IN 2015 WAS 78.9 BCF/D 4 BCF/D UP FROM 2014 BANKRUPTCY OF PRODUCERS WILL HAVE HUGE ROLE IN THE PRICE OF NATURAL GAS BULLISH and BEARISH ---- Natural Gas

11 CRUDE OIL PRICE THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF CRUDE OIL STORAGE AT CUSHING IS REPORTED TO BE 73 MILLION BARRELS REPORTS FROM EIA SHOW THERE IS ABOUT 15% OF STORAGE CAPACITY LEFT AT CUSHING GEOPOLITICAL RISK NORMALLY BUILDS IN A PREMIUM FOR CRUDE THERE WAS $20 OF RISK BUILT INTO CRUDE RISK PREMIUM HAS GONE AWAY DUE TO ALL THE OIL IN NORTH AMERICA CRUDE OIL REBOUND SHOULD ALLOW NATURAL GAS PRICES TO RISE BULLISH for Natural Gas

12 CONSUMPTION 2015 CONSUMPTION 75.3 BCF/D AND 2016 FORECAST OF 76.8 BCF/D COMMERCIAL AND RESIDENTIAL DEMAND DOWN DUE TO LACK OF WINTER INDUSTRIAL GROWTH IS FORECAST ALONG THE GULF COAST ELECTRIC GENERATION SHOULD PROVIDE A MODEST INCREASE AS LONG AS WE HAVE A NORMAL SUMMER BULLISH ---- Natural Gas

13 THANKS FOR ALLOWING ME TO SHARE MY THOUGHTS WITH YOU AROUND THE 2016 GAME CHANGERS FOR NATURAL GAS!

14 BIOGREG HATHAWAY HAS OVER 25 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE IN PROVIDING NATURAL GAS SERVICES AND SOLUTIONS TO CUSTOMERS THROUGHOUT THE UNITED STATES. HE GRADUATED FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF TULSA IN 1988 WITH A BUSINESS DEGREE AND THEN WENT ON TO WORK AT VESTA ENERGY (TULSA), ASSOCIATED NATURAL GAS/DUKE ENERGY (HOUSTON AND ST. PAUL, MN), OGE ENERGY RESOURCES (OKLAHOMA CITY), VIRGINIA POWER/DOMINION ENERGY (RICHMOND, VA), CONSTELLATION NEW-ENERGY (LOUISVILLE, KY) AND CONAGRA TRADING/GAVILON LLC (TULSA). SINCE 2013 HE AND HIS WIFE ARE THE OWNERS OF ENERGY SOURCE HOLDINGS, OKLAHOMA ENERGY SOURCE AND NG ENERGY CONSULTING. THE COMPANIES SELL NATURAL GAS TO OVER 425 END-USE CUSTOMERS IN OKLAHOMA, KANSAS AND TEXAS AS WELL AS PROVIDE INTEGRATED NATURAL GAS WHOLESALE SERVICES TO CUSTOMERS AND PRODUCERS IN THE NORTHEAST. THE VISION OF THE COMPANY IS TO BE YOUR PARTNER OF CHOICE THROUGH WISELY DELIVERING NATURAL GAS PRODUCTS AND SERVICES TO CUSTOMERS WHILE MAKING A REASONABLE RETURN. GREG LIVES IN TULSA AND HAS BEEN MARRIED 20 YEARS TO HIS WIFE CHRISTY AND IS LUCKY ENOUGH TO TWIN BOYS THAT ARE 14 AND AN 8 YEAR BOY. HE PLAYED GOLF AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TULSA AND STILL ENJOYS PLAYING GOLF AT CEDAR RIDGE COUNTY CLUB.