Ingenix Cost Evaluator : Search For Best Investment Targets In Russian Oil Upstream

Transcription

1 Ingenix Cost Evaluator : Search For Best Investment Targets In Russian Oil Upstream

2 INGENIX GROUP ABOUT US 5 years / 120 projects screened & evaluated in oil&gas upstream in Russia Prescreening of assets / Finding attractive targets Detailed multiscenario feasibility studies CAPEX/OPEX evaluation using unique cost databases Deep Analysis of Reserves / Development Scenarios 2D/3D seismic and well data interpretation Geological modeling. Reserves evaluation. Assessment of geological risks Reservoir development scenarios Knowhow in Project Evaluation / Cost Engineering Own software specially developed by Ingenix Group for screening / feasibility studies incl. detailed cost evaluation (Ingenix Cost Manager, Ingenix Cost Evaluator, Ingenix Cost Viewer ) 2

3 OUR SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS FOR OIL&GAS COST EVALUATION Over the last 4 years, Ingenix Group Company has developed a family of cost estimation and management software tools for different stages of oil and gas projects Ingenix Cost Evaluator, Ingenix Cost Viewer, Ingenix Cost Manager The unique database includes technical and cost data by more than objects in 18 main oil&gas producing regions of Russian Federation. The database is logically structured and provides information from construction objects level to equipment items level. Our approach is based on technical and economic modelling using cost and technical data of typical objects. At the same time, in Ingenix Cost Evaluator we use calculation by unit volumes and prices (resourcebased method). Commercial licenses of ICM/ICV are being used by: 3

4 OUR SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS MAIN FEATURES Ingenix Cost Manager Ingenix Cost Evaluator Ingenix Cost Viewer Building up production profile and well stock Development of facilities design Access to cost database of typical facilities (5level DB) CAPEX modelling OPEX modelling DCF modelling Best for screening / benchmarking 4

5 INGENIX COST EVALUATOR AREA OF APPLICATION (AS PER AACE*) CLASS 5 CLASS 4 CLASS 3 CLASS 2 CLASS 1 MATURITY LEVEL OF PROJECT DEFINITION DELIVERABLES 30%70% 65%100% 0%2% 1%5% 10%40% SCREENING OR FEASIBILITY Capacity driven parameters; Expert view; Analogues. CONCEPT STUDY OR FEASIBILITY Equipment data driven parameters; BUDGET AUTHORIZATION OR CONTROL Aggregates perunit parameters (unit / block level) CONTROL OR BID/TENDER WBS based on technical design CHECK ESTIMATE OR BID/TENDER Detailed WBS 100% Area of application of ICE 30% 0% 20% 50% 50% 20% 15% 30% 30% 10% 10% 20% 15% 5% 3% 5% 3% 20% 15% 10% EXPECTED ACCURACY RANGE * Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering International) Source: AACE International Recommended Practice 87R14: Cost Estimate Classification System As Applied for the Petroleum Exploration and Production Industry 5

6 INGENIX COST EVALUATOR HOW IT WORKS INPUT DATA DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO Oil in place Reservoir density Aggressive development CALC. Oil saturation Porosity Net oil pay Volume factor CALC. ORF / Recoverab le reserves Effective development Building up production profile / Wellstock Development of facilities design CAPEX (Drilling) CAPEX (Facilities) OPEX DCF Model (NPV, IRR, PBP) Viscosity Permeability G&G program Geological and reservoir parameters database Rational development Ingenix Cost Evaluator is developed to run a fullcycle feasibility evaluation process on automated basis from recoverable reserves assessment to NPV ADDITIONAL DATA Distance to Transneft pipe Gas/oil ratio Associated gas utilization CAPEX / OPEX Database MACRO & TAX DATA Oil price, inflation rate Taxes, preferences DD&A rates 6

7 CHOOSING DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO Rational Effective Aggressive Oil recovery High oil recovery ratio Middle oil recovery factor Low oil recovery factor Drilling strategy Normal well pattern with regular field distribution Infill drilling, sidetracks Drilling of sweet spots Темп бурения Drilling scheduled after CPF is ready Early drilling Early drilling Minimum drawdown pressure Slow water cut increase Minimum drawdown pressure Slow water cut increase Maximum drawdown pressure Sharp water cut increase Reservoir management Production profile Production profile Production profile 7

8 DEVELOPMENT OF FACILITIES DESIGN (EXAMPLE) After automatic calculation of cost of facilities each of them can be changed voluntarily by a user, separate units can be switched off as well if the user has a better knowledge of design than the software: 8

9 RESULTS (EXAMPLE) RATIONAL SCENARIO EFFECTIVE SCENARIO AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO Oil production, mln.ton 1,2 CAPEX profile 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0, Oil production, mln.ton 1,2 1,0 0,8 CAPEX profile 0,6 0,4 0,2 0, Oil production, mln.ton 1,2 1,0 0,8 CAPEX profile 0,6 0,4 0,2 0, Free cahflow, RUR bln Effective Aggressive Rational

10 GEOLOGY&RESRVOIR DATA SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (EXAMPLE) Geological and reservoir input data can be changed by a user (manually or using the inbuilt database), so the user can easily assess sensitivity of the output NPV to such changes: NET OIL PAY VISCOSITY PERMEABILITY NPV, RUR bln. NPV, RUR bln. NPV, RUR bln. 46,6 2,5 2,8 2,5 1,3 2,5 7,6 26,4 1,2 10 0,01 4 м мpа*sec мкм 2 CAPEX, RUR bln. CAPEX, RUR bln. CAPEX, RUR bln. 33,6 33,4 33,6 38,8 33,6 22,9 10

11 OTHER PROJECT DATA SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (EXAMPLE) ASSOCIATED GAS FLARING Gas flaring leading to penalties Penalties amount: RUR 13,4 bln. SALE Gas sale with building of the processing and transportation infrastructure Cost of pipeline: RUR 0.47 bln. INJECTION Gas injection for increase of reservoir pressure Cost of injection system: RUR 0.74 bln. NPV = RUR 1.0 bln. NPV = RUR 3.4 bln. NPV = RUR 2.8 bln. DISTANCE TO TRANSNEFT 50 КМ 100 КМ 150 КМ CAPEX = RUR 33.7 bln. Including cost of pipeline = RUR 1.1 bln. CAPEX = RUR 34.3 bln. Including cost of pipeline = RUR 1.8 bln. CAPEX = RUR 34.9 bln. Including cost of pipeline = RUR 2.4 bln. NPV = RUR 2.5 bln. NPV = RUR 1.9 bln. NPV = RUR 1.3 bln. 11

12 INGENIX COST EVALUATOR GREENFIELD EVALUATION HAS NEVER BEEN SO QUICK AND EASY BEFORE! АUTOMATED PROCESS OF UPSTREAM PROJECT FEASIBILITY EVALUATION. FULL CYCLE FROM RESERVES TO NPV IN 20 MINUTES MULTI OPTION CALCULATIONS. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. BENCHMARKING WORKS THROUGH WEB ACCESS ON SUBSCRIPTION. NO INSTALLATION IS NEEDED. YOUR REPORTS ARE DOWNLOADED IN MS WORD FORMAT WITH ALL CHARTS AND TABLES 12

13 Ingenix Group LLC Ulitsa Bolshaya Tatarskaya, 9 Moscow, , Russia 7 (495) www. ingenixgroup.ru