Modelling Biomass in TIMES models

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Modelling Biomass in TIMES models"

Transcription

1 Modelling Biomass in TIMES models Hilke Rösler, Sander Lensink Amsterdam 22 th October

2 Introduction NEEDS project: building 29 country models, representation of the complete energy system RES2020 project: focus on renewable energy, some enhancements with respect to NEEDS models TIMES: least cost optimization model, fulfilling demand under boundary conditions Integrated approach: fossils, renewables also different sectors competition under different circumstances Competition: fossils and renewables, use of biomass different sectors

3 Use of Biomass Type Biofuels Electricity Heat Biogas Energy crops Oil crops X Starch crops X X Sugar crops X X Grassy crops X X X X Woody crops X X X X Waste and residues Forestry residues X X X X Agricultural residues X X X X Wood process. residues X X X X Muni cipal waste X X Wet manures X Sludge X X X Black Liquor X X X

4 Representation biofuels in model Oil crops Rape oil Starch crops Sugar crops Wood & grass BioDiesel FT - Diesel Ethanol Methanol DME Biogas Harvesting oil crops Harvesting starch crops Harvesting sugar crops Harvesting grassy crops Harvesting woody crops Pressing Oil crops Biodiesel prod. Ethanol prod. Ethanol prod. Fermentation FT-diesel prod. Ethanol prod. Agric. residues Forest residues Wood waste Methanol prod. DME prod. Gasification

5 Black liquor FT-Diesel Methanol DME Biogas Black liquor from paper industry FT-diesel prod. Methanol prod. DME prod. Biogas prod. Work in progress Differences technologies previous slide?

6 Potentials energy crops Based on EU-IEE project REFUEL project REFUEL: Planning the road ahead for biofuels Developed a biofuels road map, consistent with EU biofuel policies and supported by stakeholders involved in the biofuels field. Assumptions potentials: - Natura First food than energy - Intensifying agriculture sector

7 Potentials bio-energy crops EU Crop potential in Potential (EJ biomass ) Grassy crops Oil crops Starch crops Sugar crops Woody crops AT BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Country

8 Cost supply curve woody crops EU Cost supply curve Woody crops 100 Costs ( /GJ biomass ) Potential (EJ biomass )

9 Cost supply curve bio-energy crops EU Cost supply curve Costs ( /GJ biomass ) 10 woody grassy oil sugar starch Potential (EJ biomass )

10 Cost supply curve bio-energy crops EU Cost supply curve Costs ( /GJ biomass ) 10 woody grassy oil sugar starch Potential (EJ biomass )

11 Waste and residues Types waste and residues - Forestry residues - Agricultural residues - Wood process. residues - Municipal waste - Wet manures - Sludge - Black Liquor Cover >80% potential Other sources only when possible niche market (low costs) Environmentally-compatible Biowaste potential EU25 Source: EEA,

12 Potentials and costs waste and residues Work in progress Possible source potentials: EEA study How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment? Use EEA study also for cost assumptions? Use of Refuel data, limited waste and residue sources

13 Waste and residues (Refuel) Waste and residues Potential (EJ/year) Wood processing residues Used fats/oils Liquid manure Forestry residues Agricultural residues AT BE BG CH CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV NL NO PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Country

14 Import and trade Import and trade is very important Restricted to biomass and biofuels - Primary energy carrier: wood - Intermediate: rape seed oil, palm oil - Final energy carrier: bio-diesel, FT diesel, ethanol, methanol Import: - Sustainability criteria - Potentials and cost dependent of global developments Trade: - Basic assumption: Free trade between countries

15 RES-heating/cooling Residential: space heating, water heating, cooling Commercial and services: space heating, water heating, cooling Industry: high and low temperature heat, steam Agriculture: high temperature heat Residential Comm&Services Solar X X Geothermal X X Heat pump X X Biomass solid X X Biomass gaseous X X District heat X X District heating X X Industry X X

16 Finally Summarize - Use biomass: RES-E, biofuels, RES-heat - Potentials: energy crops, waste and residues Questions and comments? Thanks for your attention! RES-E: next presentation