Ethanol Market and Pricing Data

Transcription

1 Ethanol Market and Pricing Data October 3, 2017 CONTENTS Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing... 2 Tariff Rates... 9 Additional Market Resources For more information on the contents of this publication or the U.S. Grains Council, its mission and programs, please contact the U.S. Grains Council at (202) The U.S. Grains Council is a private, non-profit partnership of producers and agribusinesses committed to building and expanding international markets for U.S. barley, corn, grain sorghum and their products. The Council is headquartered in Washington, D.C. and has ten international offices that oversee programs in more than 50 countries. Financial support from our private industry members, including state checkoffs, agribusinesses, state entities and others, triggers federal matching funds from the USDA resulting in a combined program value of more than $26 million.

2 Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing Product Comparative Pricing for Fuels and Co-Products Current price Prior week average Previous year Percentage change (week over week) Percentage change (year over year) Ethanol Ethanol (FOB Gulf) $1.540 $1.608 $ % -2.9% Ethanol (FOB Santos, Brazil) $2.123 $2.090 $ % -10.9% Gulf discount/premium from Santos -$ $ $ % -26.7% Ethanol (FOB PNW) $1.625 $1.666 N/A -2.5% N/A Gasoline/chemical components/additives MTBE (FOB Gulf) $1.87 $1.91 $ % 9.3% MTBE Premium/Discount to Ethanol (FOB Gulf) $0.33 $0.30 $0.12 $0.02 $0.12 "Aromatic" Octane Enhancers (BTX) Benzene (FOB U.S. Gulf) $2.64 $2.75 $ % 14.4% Toluene NITN (FOB U.S. Gulf) $2.33 $2.39 $ % 25.1% Mixed Xylene (FOB U.S. Gulf) $2.28 $2.39 $ % 6.7% Weighted Average Aromatic Price (BTX) $2.34 $2.44 $ % 12.6% Gasoline (FOB Gulf) $1.598 $1.651 $ % 16.4% *All Prices in $/gallon Product Comparative Pricing for Fuels and Co-Products Current price Prior week average Previous year Percentage change (week over week) Percentage change (year over year) Ethanol Ethanol (FOB Gulf) $0.407 $0.425 $ % -2.9% Ethanol (FOB Santos, Brazil) $0.561 $0.552 $ % -10.9% Gulf discount/premium from Santos -$ $ $ % -26.7% Ethanol (FOB PNW) $0.429 $0.440 N/A -2.5% N/A Gasoline/chemical components/additives MTBE (FOB Gulf) $0.49 $0.51 $ % 9.3% MTBE Premium/Discount to Ethanol (FOB Gulf) $0.09 $0.08 $0.03 $0.02 $0.12 "Aromatic" Octane Enhancers (BTX) Benzene (FOB U.S. Gulf) $0.70 $0.73 $ % 14.4% Toluene NITN (FOB U.S. Gulf) $0.62 $0.63 $ % 25.1% Mixed Xylene (FOB U.S. Gulf) $0.60 $0.63 $ % 6.7% Weighted Average Aromatic Price (BTX) $0.62 $0.64 $ % 12.6% Gasoline (FOB Gulf) $0.42 $0.44 $ % 16.4% *All Prices in $/liter *Note: prior year Ethanol FOB PNW values will be available in Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol markets are lower to start the week with few physical bids in the market. Traders are bearish with demand starting to turn down seasonally and production increasing following the fall 20 F St. NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC [Page 2]

3 ethanol plant maintenance shutdown season. Ethanol has suffered the same fate that befell the larger energy markets: a significant selloff to start the fourth quarter. The bearish activity is somewhat surprising given talk in the market about crude oil hitting $60/barrel in the very near future. Nearby CBOT ethanol futures fell 3.7 cents/gallon (0.98 cents/liter) this week while U.S. interior wholesale rack prices were off 3.23 cents/gallon (0.85 cents/liter). The bearish price action continued at the U.S. Gulf, where FOB prices fell 3.75 cents/gallon (0.991 cents/liter). Barge rates have been rising due to low water levels in much of the U.S. waterway system, subsequently pulling rail rates higher. Freight rate increases are likely responsible, at least partly, for the fall in FOB Gulf prices. In Brazil, FOB Santos anhydrous ethanol prices are up 3.8 cents/gallon (1.004 cents/liter) following a threeweek selloff. Lower gasoline prices have reduced consumption of hydrous ethanol (which competes against gasoline at the retail pump in Brazil) but have increased sales of anhydrous ethanol (which is blended with gasoline at the rate of 27 percent). Brazil s increasing domestic consumption has consequently boosted the FOB prices of anhydrous ethanol. The price increase helped widen (as did lower FOB U.S. Gulf prices) the FOB Houston-Santos, Brazil ethanol price spread. The spread widened nearly 8 cents/gallon (2 cents/liter) to /gallon ( /liter). MTBE is lower for the third consecutive week while BTX component prices are lower as well. MTBE prices are approaching six-month lows (set 11 July 2017 at $1.748/gallon, 47 cents/liter) and are currently priced at $1.863/gallon (48.5 cents/liter). BTX prices fell 8.5 cents/gallon (2.2 cents/liter) this week and the weighted average component value hit $2.315/gallon (61.2 cents/liter). Gasoline prices are lower across most markets with RBOB futures declining 8.6 cents/gallon this week (2.28 cents/liter) and 83.7 octane RBOB gasoline FOB U.S. Gulf falling 13.9 cents/gallon (3.67 cents/liter). Both Brent and WTI crude oil futures are down 3 percent from last week as traders take a break from the recent bullish rally. WTI crude oil has climbed over $10/barrel since mid-june, despite an overall bearish supply situation. Still, crude oil futures remain in an uptrend configuration, a continuation of which would certainly be positive for the ethanol market worldwide. 20 F St. NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC [Page 3]

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8 Price Database: If you are interested in historical price data, please click here. 20 F St. NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC [Page 8]

9 Tariff Rates HS Codes HS Code Description Ethyl alcohol, undenatured, of an alcoholic strength by volume of 80 percent or higher, for fuel use Ethyl alcohol and other spirits, denatured, of any strength, for fuel use. Tariff Rate Database: If you are interested in tariff rate data for all U.S. export markets, please click here. 20 F St. NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC [Page 9]

10 Additional Market Resources USCG-funded studies: Description of USGC-funded ethanol studies TBD. If you are interested in any of the reports described here, please click here. USDA GAIN reports: USDA GAIN Reports Title Description Link Argentina Biofuels Annual 2017 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in Argentina. Read here. Brazil Biofuels Annual 2017 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in Brazil. Read here. Canada Biofuels Annual 2016 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in Canada. Read here. China Biofuels Annual 2016 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in China. Read here. Colombia Biofuels Annual 2017 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in Colombia. Read here. EU-28 Biofuels Annual 2017 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in the EU-28. Read here. EU-28: Biofuel Mandates in the EU by Member State (GAIN) This report provides an overview on the biofuel use mandates in the various EU member states. It supplements the EU-28 Biofuels Annual Report. Read here. India Biofuels Annual 2017 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in India. Read here. Indonesia Biofuels Annual 2017 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in Indonesia. Read here. Korea Bioethanol Workshop 2017 The report includes an overview of the 2017 Bioethanol Workshop and Roundtable in Seoul, Korea. Read here. Peru Biofuels Annual 2017 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in Peru. Read here. Philippines Biofuels Annual 2016 (GAIN) Romania Biofuels Market Overview 2017 (GAIN) Spain's Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Overview 2017 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in the Philippines. This report provides an overview on biofuel use in Romania. This report provides an overview on biofuel use in Spain. Read here. Read here. Read here. Thailand Biofuels Annual 2017 (GAIN) This report provides an overview on biofuel use in Thailand. Read here. 20 F St. NW, Suite 600 Washington, DC [Page 10]