Future Energy Scenarios UK Energy & Strategy team. Shale, Biomethane & CBM

Transcription

1 Future Energy Scenarios 2015 UK Energy & Strategy team Shale, Biomethane & CBM

2 1 Future Energy Scenarios 2015 The 2015 scenarios are an evolution of those published in 2014 Consumer Power replaces Low Carbon Life, reflecting stakeholder feedback Prosperity Moderate economic growth Political: Focus on long term carbon reduction and maintaining indigenous security of supply Technological: There is high renewable generation at a local level and high volumes of nuclear and gas generation at a national level. Social: Going Green is not a conscious decision Environmental: The 2050 target 80% carbon reduction may be met Slower economic growth Consumer Power No Progression Political: Inconsistent political statements and a lack of focus on environmental energy policies Technological: Focus on cheapest source of energy ; gas preferred choice for generation over low carbon Social: Society is cost conscious and focused on the here and now Environmental: Both the carbon and renewables targets for 2020 are likely to be missed. Moderate economic growth Political: European harmonisation, long term environmental energy policy certainty Technological: Renewable and low carbon generation is high. Significant focus on green technology innovation Social: Society actively engaged in going green Environmental: New policy intervention ensuring all Gone Green targets are achieved Slow Progression Slower economic growth Political: European harmonisation, focus on low cost environmental energy policies Technological: Ambition for innovation is constrained by finance, leading to a slower uptake of renewables. Social: Society is engaged but limited by cost Environmental: Renewable energy targets are likely to be missed and hit at a later date. Green Ambition

3 2 Gas Supply Overview Consumer Power Gone Green Prosperity No Progression Slow Progression Green Ambition

4 3 Bio methane - connections Short term based on industry information on the number of new connections Long term growth rate based on annual increases from Distribution Networks submissions to Ofgem High Case assumes all potential new customers are connected Low case assumes a 25% connection rate and no new connections from 2020

5 4 Bio methane annual flows Annual flows are derived from the number of connections X flow rate Flow rate used is based upon published flow rates High case assumes flows rates increase by: 5%/year up to 2020 due to increasing efficiencies 5% every 2 years from 2020 Low case assumes no improvement in current flow rates

6 5 Shale Gas High case (Consumer Power) assumes flows ~32bcm/year by 2030 Flows based upon IoD Report Getting shale Gas Working published in May 2013 High/Low case with 3 different flow rates based on high / central / low well production rates Low case scenario based on a single Pad 10 wells & 10 laterals High case scenario based on a single Pad 10 wells & 40 laterals Current drilling technology for onshore & offshore is for multi-lateral well production Data source used based upon IoD case high scenario & central well production case No Progression assumes half the number pads Slow Progression & Gone Green assume no shale gas

7 6 Shale Gas In our 2015 scenarios, shale gas supply into a gas network starts in For this to happen, the following will need to happen. Final planning permissions granted in 2015 Results from test wells available in 2016 Applications for planning, licences and environmental permits for further shale gas wells (2016) Commence drilling of additional wells (2016/2017) Monitor flows for months to assess volumes produced (2017/2018) Apply for production licences and environmental consents for shale gas wells (2018) Monitor seismic and environmental conditions for 12 months (2018/2019) Commercial production starts (2020)

8 7 Other Unconventional Gas Coal Bed Methane Included in 2014 FES but removed from 2015 FES following stakeholder feedback Other unconventional gas supply sources were not included No evidence provided that the technologies were commercially viable If you disagree please contact us with evidence.

9 8 UK Energy Strategy Gas Supply Contacts Simon Durk Gas Supply Manager Nigel Bradbury Primary Energy Analyst Chris Thompson Senior Gas Supply Analyst Christian Parsons Gas Supply Analyst FES website FES team FES 2015 feedback survey

10 Gas supply poll results