Energy Transitions for India- A perspective. Rangan Banerjee Department of Energy Science and Engg IIT Bombay

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1 Energy Transitions for India- A perspective Rangan Banerjee Department of Energy Science and Engg IIT Bombay

2 Overall questions/issues What is the current status of India s energy use? What have been the transitions in the past? What are the likely transitions in the future? What are the challenges and opportunities? 2

3 India and World (Selected Indicators for 2013) Population 1250 million 7118 million GDP (PPP) 5846 Billion 2005 US$ Billion 2005 US$ (4677 $/person) (12129 $/person) Primary Energy 33 EJ 559 EJ Energy/person 26.6 GJ/person/year 84.4 GJ/person/year Electricity/person 760 kwh/capita/year 2972 kwh/capita/year CO2 emissions Per person Per GDP 1869 Million tonnes Million tonnes 1.5 tonnes /capita/year 4.52 tonnes /capita/year 0.32 kg /US$ ppp 0.57 kg /US$ ppp Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics

4 4 4

5 Goals for the Energy sector #1 Provide Access to convenient energy services, affordable #2 Make new technologies attractive to investors #3 Develop sustainable energy systems Climate, local emissions, land, water #4 Provide energy needed for development and growth #5 Energy Security 5

6 India s INDC #1 Reduce Emissions Intensity of GDP by 33-35% of 2005 level in 2030 #2 Create 40% cumulative non fossil power by installed capacity by 2030 (using finance from Green Climate Fund) #3 Create an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO 2 equivalent through additional tree cover and forest 6

7 Renewable share? What will be the future supply mix for the Electricity sector in 2066? How much can renewables and nuclear supply? 7

8 Renewable Share in Power Renewable Installed Capacity 8 Renewable Generation Nuclear generation Nuclear Installed Capacity

9 Renewable installed capacity and generation Installed Capacity* (MW) Estimated Capacity factor Estimated Generation (GWh) Wind % Biomass & Bagasse % Small Hydro % Waste to Energy % 504 Solar PV % 9233 Total % *as on MNRE website: 9

10 Primary Energy Mix Coal Oil and Gas Renewables and Nuclear 10

11 Primary Energy Mix 11

12 Primary Energy Mix 2066 Target Coal Oil and Gas Renewables and Nuclear 12

13 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 13

14 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 14

15 Power Generation Supply mix Thermal Nuclear Renewables and Hydro 15

16 Kaya Identity Total CO 2 Emissions = (CO 2 /E)(E/GDP)(GDP/Pop)Pop CO 2 /E Carbon Intensity E/GDP- Energy Intensity of Economy 16

17 Percetage (%) Kaya identity components POP GDP ENERGY CO Chart Title POPULATION GDP/PER CAPITA ENERGY/GDP CO2/ENERGY Data Value Baseline 17

18 Time Series Trends In Intensity 25 CAGR=3% CAGR=5% CAGR=5.5% CAGR=7% Energy Intensity of GDP (toe/10000$) Emissions Intensity of GDP (tco2/10000$) Emissions Intensity of Energy (tco2/toe)

19 # 1 19

20 Sectoral Mix 20

21 Services # UK (37,61,1) India-1971 (23,36,42) China-1971 (27,19,53) Industry 21

22 Human Development Index (HDI) HDI and Electricity consumption (2013) Germany Switzerland Australia United States China India Pakistan Zimbabwe 2035 India World Annual Electricity consumption/ capita (kwh) 22

23 Gujarat Wind 1 st April :47 pm Installed Capacity 3542 MW Gujarat Wind 3 rd March :00 pm 23

24 25 A.Dave, T.Kanitkar and R.Banerjee Analysing Implications of India's Renewable Energy Targets, draft 24

25 Analysis using SAM Intermediate Consumption SAM Endogenous Final Demand Exo gen ous Δf From Decomposition Analysis Scenarios for Sectoral Growth From Optimisation or Manual Constraints Resource, Emissions Multiplier Decomposition SAM Coefficients Δx = M A *Δf New Production New SAM Investment Energy Supply Energy Demand 27 25

26 Non Fossil Electricity INDC Target Achievable Low Capacity factors- High daily and seasonal variability Financing issues Initial capital Reduction in GDP, Equity impacts Storage costs problems with high penetration -Capacity credit? Need for R&D and indigenization Impact on Employment 26

27 Thrust on Energy R&D Consortium Approaches Grand Challenges Innovation Incubation and Innovation INFUSE Clean Coal, Storage, Cost Effective Renewables Energy Efficiency, New processes etc.. 27

28 National Solar Thermal Power Facility Consortium supported by MNRE and led by IIT Bombay Thermal Storage Generato r Turbine Solar Field Thermic Oil Loop Heat Exchanger Condenser CLFR Direct Steam Cooling Water Circuit Pump Expansion Vessel Pump Water/ Steam Loop Schematic of 1 MW Solar Power Plant Simulator snapshot Consortium Members Parabolic Trough Solar Field Linear Fresnel Reflector Solar Field at Gwalpahari site KIE Solatherm 28

29 29

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31 TEAM SHUNYA SOLAR DECATHLON EUROPE

32 House in Versailles 26th June, 2014 Team Shunya 70 students 13 disciplines 12 faculty

33 Challenges and Opportunities Accelerated Diffusion Green Buildings, Efficient Appliances, Hybrid Vehicles Market Transformation Mandates and incentives Enabling ecosystem- Public domain information, Improved mapping, resource assessment, monitoring, forecasting tools Level Playing Field For DSM Paradigm shift focus on energy services not energy Financing the energy sector level playing field for distributed energy Innovation and startups Grand Challenges Manufacturing capability development Employment SC coal, Storage Land, water Impacts Directed Research missions- stated goals,process driven allocations, public domain results Evolution of Consortia 33

34 Acknowledgment Jani Das Tejal Kanitkar Ajit Paul Abraham Balkrishna Surve Thank you 34

35 References IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2015 Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Tejal Kanitkar, Rangan Banerjee, T. Jayaraman, Impact of economic structure on mitigation targets for developing countries, Energy for Sustainable Development, Volume 26, June 2015, Pages 56-61, ISSN , 35