Water and Climate Scenarios for Alberta s South Saskatchewan River Basin

Transcription

1 Water and Climate Scenarios for Alberta s South Saskatchewan River Basin Dave Sauchyn and Suzan Lapp Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative University of Regina Stakeholder Workshop on Water and Climate, Dec 1/06, Lethbridge

2 Prairie Drainage Basins Non-contributing drainage area (percent of total basin area) for prairie drainage basins -median annual runoff- Peace River British Columbia 1 Athabasca River Alberta Calgary 1 Edmonton 40 Saskatchewan River Churchill River Saskatchewan Saskatoon 3 Seal River 0 0 Nelson River Manitoba 10 Lake Winnipeg Hayes River 0 Ontario Washington Idaho Helena Montana 27 Missouri River Regina 62 Assiniboine River North Dakota 30 Winnipeg Red River 1 Winnipeg River Michigan Oregon Bismarck Minnesota Boise Wyoming Source: Non-contributing area - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, P.F.R.A. Elevation data - Environmental Systems Research Institute South Dakota Kilometers Minneapolis Saint Paul Wisconsin

3 temp C Lethbridge HadCM ppt ratio A1B A2 B1 A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 #REF! #REF! A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 CGCM3_47 CGCM3_63 CSIRO_MK3 ECHAM5_OM GFDL_cm2.0 GFDL_cm2.1 HadGEM1 NCAR_ccsm3 NCAR_pcm1

4 Mean Precipitation 2050, Calgary, CGCM mm A1BX A2_X B1_X COM_X Janurary February March April May June July August September October November December

5 Mean Temperature 2050, Calgary, CGCM A1BX A2_X B1_X COM_X December November October May June July August September April March February Janurary oc

6 Mean Annual Temperature Barrow and Yu, s

7 Growing Degree Days > 5 0 C Barrow and Yu, s

8 Annual Moisture Index - GDD/Annual Precip Barrow and Yu, s

9 Rood and Samuelson, 2005

10 Closed-basin prairie lakes Water level changes, (van der Kamp et al.) 12 Whitewater Lake (MB) 10 8 Dry Big Quill Lake (SK) Relative Levels ( m ) Manito Lake (SK) Redberry Lake (SK) Upper Mann Lake (AB) Spring Lake (AB) Years Dry Little Fish Lake (AB)

11 Climate Change Impacts on Rocky Mountain glaciers Demuth and Pietroniro, 2001 Glacier cover has decreased rapidly in recent years; it now approaches the least extent in the past 10,000 years A phase of increased stream flow from global warming has past; basins have entered a potentially long-term trend of declining flows Declining supplies of glacier runoff have serious implications for the adaptive capacity of downstream surface water systems and for trans-boundary water allocation

12 Snow depth standardised anomaly 1 values are 5-year centred averages Eastern slopes/western Prairie snow depth in March Peyto Glacier winter balance Winter balance departure (m w.e. a ) Demuth and Pietroniro, 2001

13 Peyto Glacier M.N. Demuth

14 Shrinking Glaciers Demuth and Pietroniro, 2001

15 Declining Mean and Minimum Streamflow Demuth and Pietroniro 2001

16 Estimated Glacier Melt Contribution TBF % Annual % TBF Annual % %

17 Climate Warming Impacts on Snowpack Accumulation in an Alpine Watershed Suzan Lapp, M.Sc. thesis, U of L Lapp et al. 2005, Int. J. Climatology

18 Historical and Future (CGCM1) Climate October - March (a) Pekisko (b) Coleman Lapp et al. 2005

19 Cumulative Snowpack Lapp et al. 2005

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21 GCM scenario results, , cumulative flows Red Deer River at Bindloss Bow River at the Mouth Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct volumetric flow (m3/sec) 0 05CK004 - current 05CK004 - echa21 05CK004 - hada21 05CK004 - ncara21 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Nov Dec BN012 - current 05BN012 - echa21 05BN012 - hada21 05BN012 - ncara21 volumetric flow (m3/sec) Sept Oct Nov Dec Oldman River at the Mouth 05AG006 - current 05AG006 - echa21 05AG006 - hada21 05AG006 - ncara South Sask at Diefenbaker Dief current Dief - echa21 Dief - hada21 Dief - ncara21 volumetric flow (m3/sec) volumetric flow (m3/sec) Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

22 Spatial and seasonal response in flows, modelled flows (average m3/sec) modelled flows (average m3/sec) Bow River at Calgary current ech had ncar climatology 0 Bow River at Mouth current ech had ncar climatology winter spring summer fall modelled flows (average m3/sec) winter spring summer fall GCM %Precip +Temp echa echb hada hadb ncara ncarb modelled flows (average m3/sec) South Sask River at Diefenbaker Oldman River at Mouth current ech had ncar climatology 0 current ech had ncar climatology winter spring summer fall Description driest, warmest moderately wet and warm wettest and least warm winter spring summer fall

23 GCM scenario results, , cumulative flows Red Deer at Bindloss -13% (-32% to 13%) South Sask at Diefenbaker -8.5% (-22% to 8%) Bow River at mouth -10% (-19% to 1%) Oldman at mouth -4% (-13% to 8%)

24 Climatic variability Climatic change adaptation Coping Range Time Adaptation implementation

25 Increasing Drought Frequency Central North America Return Period (years) Length of Dry Spell (days) Today ~2070 Kharin and Zwiers 2000

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27 Tree-Ring Sampling Sites

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29 Mean Annual Flow (m 3 /s), Oldman River above Oldman Reservoir Oldman River

30 20 Oldman River Flow,

31 Oldman River Flow,

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33 Wildcat Hills Tree-Ring Chronology Annual Precipitation and Streamflow at Calgary Calgary P TR Index Bow River Q

34 Wildcat Hills Tree-Ring Chronology, Departures from mean residual ring width

35 Spring 1796, Edmonton House At Edmonton House, a large fire burned all around us on April 27 th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7 th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water. Timber intended to be used at Edmonton House could not be sent to the post for want of water in the North Saskatchewan River. On May 2nd, William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, there being no water in the river. (Johnson 1967: 33-39, 57)

36 Spring 1796, Edmonton House At Edmonton House, a large fire burned all around us on April 27 th (1796) and burned on both sides of the river. On May 7 th, light canoes arrived at from Buckingham House damaged from the shallow water. Timber intended to be used at Edmonton House could not be sent to the post for want of water in the North Saskatchewan River. On May 2nd, William Tomison wrote to James Swain that furs could not be moved as, there being no water in the river. (Johnson 1967: 33-39, 57)

37 Causes of climate variability

38 Wavelet power spectrum

39 Wavelet power spectrum

40 A myth of abundance and an explicit assumption that the hydrological regime is stationary and will continue to be stationary in the future.

41 Adaptive Capacity Determinant Economic resources Technology Information and skills Infrastructure Institutions Equity Explanation Greater economic resources increase adaptive capacity Lack of financial resources limits adaptation options Lack of technology limits range of potential adaptation options Less technologically advanced regions are less likely to develop and/or implement technological adaptations Lack of informed, skilled and trained personnel reduces adaptive capacity Greater access to information increases likelihood of timely and appropriate adaptation Greater variety of infrastructure can enhance adaptive capacity, since it provides more options Characteristics and location of infrastructure also affect adaptive capacity Well-developed social institutions help to reduce impacts of climate-related risks, and therefore increase adaptive capacity Equitable distribution of resources increases adaptive capacity Both availability of, and access to, resources is important

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44 Resolution PC AGM Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta 2005 AGM Resolution submitted by the Cardston-Taber-Warner PC Association Resolved: The Government of Alberta recognizes and acknowledges that water is a very important commodity and valuable resource. The Government also recognizes the need for more storage of this valuable resource. We will look at alternatives to costly and environmentally sensitive dams, by encouraging a study to look at the possibility of on farm storage, particularly on the corners of pivot irrigation land. This storage would help producers have water for agriculture in the early and late season if required.