Collaborative Water Management in Southern Alberta March 2015

Transcription

1 Collaborative Water Management in Southern Alberta March 2015

2 SSRB: Four Unique, Dynamic Watersheds 2

3 Climate is Water.Water is Climate Annual Precipitation Water yield is already a concern in many parts of Alberta Climate change will have a direct, significant impact on water resources Robust and resilient water management will be vital in how we adapt to changes in this essential resource to best assure water for people, nature, and the economy Adaptation must be local and regional Adaptation requires a systems approach that links the environmental and economic consequences of climate change to social response Water Yield 3

4 History Demonstrates Extreme Climate Variability, Beyond Recent Record South Saskatchewan River Basin Flows (Bow + Oldman) Reinforcing the importance of adapting and building resilience now, before more extreme events 4

5 The SSRB Water Project At A Glance A collaborative project of southern Albertans to explore practical options for adapting to environmental and climatic change. Water is fundamental to community sustainability and growth How water is managed in the SSRB will become even more important in the face of changing climate and use of shared resources This project will build on existing data, tools, capacity and knowledge to: Improve shared understanding of potential environmental and climatic impacts Develop and use a comprehensive river system model to explore opportunities in the Red Deer sub-basin Build and apply an integrated SSRB river system model to explore opportunities throughout the whole basin Introduce physically-based considerations and modeling capabilities Increase capacity for water resource management throughout the SSRB 5 5

6 SSRB Water Project is Funded in Alberta 2 ½ year project ending December 2015 Funded by Alberta Innovates Energy and Environment Solutions (AI-EES) Executed by Alberta WaterSMART Engaging external experts and resources throughout Work will be conducted with stakeholders, by stakeholders 6

7 Why Does Environmental and Climatic Change Matter to the SSRB? Water is already a barrier to population growth, economic development, and recreational demand in parts of the SSRB Home to over one third of Alberta s population; southern Alberta s population expected to grow 60% by 2041 Loss of glacier storage (lower reserve and natural summer flow) Bow, Oldman, and South Saskatchewan Basins closed to new water allocations Growing world demand for irrigated agriculture production Environmental concerns throughout the river systems Reach-dependent impacts on high value fisheries No systematic approach to manage or mitigate drought or flood Increased future extreme events and changes in precipitation from climatic change 7

8 Bring Together the People that Know the Water Management Systems the Best 8

9 Each Sub Basin Operating Model Bow River Operational Model (BROM) Red Deer River Operational Model (RDROM) Oldman and South Saskatchewan River Operational Model (OSSROM) 9

10 Has Been Built into an Integrated SSROM South Saskatchewan River Operational Model (SSROM) 10

11 SSROM Performance Measures Reflecting Basin Wide Concerns (PMs) Working list of SSRB PMs Water supply PMs Environmental PMs Volume of SSRB wide shortages by sub-basin, total and as share of demand Annual transfers between sub-basins (intra-basin transfers) Count of years target elevations in ESRD, TA or ID reservoirs are not met going into winter Maximum storage capacity in per basin each year Share of days meeting or exceeding naturalized flows Count of minimum flow violations Aggregation of fish violations in specific reaches Flood PMs Maximum flow violations at specific locations Apportionment PMs Contribution by each sub-basin to satisfy apportionment Annual volume from each sub-basin as percentage of naturalized flow Count of years with apportionment violations Cost PMs Relative cumulative cost of strategies (screening level only) 11

12 Adaptation Strategies Have Been Identified in Each Sub Basin of the SSRB Red Deer Bow Oldman & South Sask. Implement functional flows Dickson Dam operations to restore WCO Dickson Dam operations to restore WCO and meet new demands Additional storage Local flood protection Water conservation Application of land use best management practices Effective implementation of Alberta s Wetland Policy Water bank in upstream Bow Stabilize Lower Kananaskis Lake Stabilize flows in Kananaskis River Adjust fill times for Minnewanka, Spray and Upper Kananaskis reservoirs Reduce seasonal consumptive Move municipal licences from Highwood/Sheep system to Bow River Increase winter carryover in Travers Reservoir Implement additional demand reduction in Irrigation Districts Build Springbank Off Stream reservoir (SR1) Build McLean Creek dry dam (MC1) Build Glenmore Reservoir diversion (Calgary tunnel) Build a Lower Belly Reservoir Minimum flow augmentation below reservoirs Build a Kimball Reservoir Expand and fully balance Chin Reservoir Implement forecastbased rationing The next two questions are: Are there strategies to build resilience between sub basins? How do we best build resilience throughout the entire SSRB? 12

13 Example: Bow Adaptation Strategy Upstream Water Bank Improving benefits in the Bow is all about timing The water bank is a volume of water used to make releases as needed to meet basin needs % storage spread across existing TA reservoirs % of inflows Agreed to operating rules are vital in producing the expected benefits e.g. Release to maintain flow of 800 cfs at Bassano Storage (AF) Remaining Storage in WaterBank 0 01/01/29 03/02/29 05/01/29 06/30/29 08/29/29 10/28/29 12/27/29 Date Water Bank Storage Remaining Water Bank Storage Used to Date Accumulated Water Bank Inflows When a water bank release is made TA releases that much more than they would have released without the withdrawal This requires a formula to determine how much TAU would have released The impacts on TAU generating revenues depend on when the water is released 13

14 Example: Oldman Adaptation Strategy Shortage Sharing Through Droughts Example: If total ESRD storage on June 1 is <75% of target, cap irrigation deliveries at 80% of full demand for the entire year. If the reservoirs are <15% full, cap irrigation deliveries at 50%. Modelling result: Substantial extensions of storage during the four worst historical droughts Storage in ESRD reservoirs 2001 drought ( ) and reservoirs recover more quickly in the years following a drought Storage in ESRD reservoirs after the 1936 drought ( ) Do the work now to establish draft procedures, agreements, and tools needed in the event of a prolonged drought 14

15 Example: Red Deer Adaptation Strategy Conservation Example: 15% summer conservation across all licenses Annual Shortage at New Demands Preliminary Results Shortage (cdm) /31/16 12/31/22 12/31/28 12/31/34 12/31/40 12/31/46 12/31/52 12/31/58 Dickson Ops for d/s Needs Current O perations Dickson Ops for d/s Needs w/ Cons 15

16 Example: Oldman Adaptation Strategy Kimball Reservoir Kimball Reservoir: Would provide 125,800 cdm (102,000 AF) of new storage upstream of the St. Mary Reservoir near the international border Would be responsible for meeting a new downstream WCO for the reach before the St. Mary Reservoir, while the existing IO would remain unchanged below the St. Mary Reservoir Kimball Reservoir is also assumed to be managed as part of the ESRD reservoir balancing system Modelled Results: Preliminary modelling showed that meeting only the IO netted even more positive results as the requirements on its storage would be lower, thus preserving the storage longer. 16

17 Learnings: Climate Variability will Play Out Differently in Each Sub Basin Red Deer Basin: wetter system, earlier melt Climate Variability Scenarios Compared to in each Basin Bow Basin: dryer system overall OSSK Basins: wetter spring/winter, dryer summer/fall 17

18 Learnings: Flood Mitigation is a Specific Objective with Some Opportunity Because of the extensive modelling work on the Bow River in , the data and models and previously involved participants were readily available to apply the model to potential mitigation options shortly after the catastrophic 2013 flood This work highlighted Flooding dynamics and risks are different throughout the SSRB Flood mitigation must be considered in light of all water and watershed management challenges and opportunities Protecting against severe and massive floods will require potentially severe and massive trade-offs Mitigation should be directed by what flow levels we want to mitigate to in each basin Potential opportunities continue to be pursued Local protection Infrastructure reinforcement Changes in infrastructure operations Bypass and retention options Room for the River concepts 18

19 Learnings: Water Management Quickly Becomes a Landuse Discussion and Vice Versa Modelled land use impacts on streamflow in the Red Deer sub basin Focused on the long term impact of five land use types: Settlement Energy Crops Wetlands Fire/Logging Modelling integrated water allocation (OASIS) and landscape simulation (ALCES) models Focused on the regional, not local, level Preliminary observations include: Greater streamflow impact from change in demands over change in inflows Undetectable impact in inflows at basin scale from expansion of crop lands or forest disturbance Restoration of wetlands appears to offer flow regulation and groundwater recharge Land use management is vital in not making water management challenges worse 19

20 What We Hope to Produce 1. Greater shared knowledge of the SSRB water system, it s management, and potential environmental and climatic impacts 2. A credible set of adaptation strategies for each sub-basin and across the SSRB basin 3. Tools, data and working groups to support ongoing adaptive river management 20

21 Water: The Key to Our Sustainable Future For more information: Alberta WaterSMART Alberta WaterPortal