ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE COASTAL CITIES OF NORTH AFRICA CASE OF GREATER ALEXANDRIA MARYSE GAUTIER CDC/CMI

Transcription

1 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE COASTAL CITIES OF NORTH AFRICA CASE OF GREATER ALEXANDRIA MARYSE GAUTIER CDC/CMI

2 CONTENT BACKGROUND PROJECT OBJECTIVES IN ALEXANDRIA CURRENT SITUATION AND VULNERABILITIES PROPOSED ACTIONS AND RESPONSES

3 BACKGROUND Regional study on climate change adaptation and natural disaster preparedness is part of a CMI program to increase resilience in Mediterranean cities. First phase: a study financed by the World Bank on 3 coastal cities of North Africa (Alexandria, Tunis, Casablanca) and Bouregreg Valley in Rabat. Leading Egyptian institution: Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), providing personnel and researches, data processing and modelling facilities. Contractor is a consortium led by EGIS, with BRGM and IAU Ile de France.

4 CITY OF ALEXANDRIA In the west of Rosetta branch, spread out over almost 100 km of coastline, from the coastal village of Aboukir in the north-east to the village of El-Deir in the south-west. Population = M, Area of over 230,000 hectares. Alexandria has largest harbor in the country and roughly 40% of the Egyptian industrial activities. The extension of the city to the south is impeded by the existence of a large water body, Lake Maryut.

5 A FRAGILE SITE HISTORICALLY BELOW SEA-LEVEL Built on a coastal ridge, the city is caught between the sea, lagoons and former lakes. Agricultural land reclaimed from the marshes is protected by the ancient Mohammed Ali sea-wall. 5 Low-income informal housing is located in the areas most at risk next to Lake Maryut. Large parts of the Alexandria area lie below sea level, which generates flood and drainage issues. High urban Vulnerability: the city, shows very high densities along its water-front. Built on a narrow and partially elevated coastal ridge facing the sea, behind which are located the lakes and the low-lying rural areas and wetlands.

6 LIMITED PREVENTION AND RESPONSE CAPACITIES Egypt has suffered from limited ability for natural disasters prevention, and its response capacity has been constrained by a highly centralized decision-making structure. The Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC), reporting to the Cabinet, cannot count on significant decentralized response capacities. Recent natural disasters (Sinai flash floods in 2010) show that Government response is inadequate. Climate change, questioned until recently by the Egyptian Meteorological Agency, is finally beginning to be recognized as a real challenge, with IDSC and EEAA sharing responsibilities. 6

7 PROJECT OBJECTIVES Facilitating the development of Alexandria strategy to increase resilience to Climate change and Natural disasters Providing the Egyptian government with a pilot study and a methodology that can be replicated to other exposed urban area. Phase I: Assessing the vulnerability of greater Alexandria to the expected impacts of climate change and to the risks of natural hazards. Phase II: Adaptation Action Plan of the city to climate change and its resilience to natural disasters Active participation of stakeholders: sharing analyses and results through workshops, townhall meetings.

8 PROPOSED CLIMATE IN 2030 Average Temperature increase ( C for summer, and 1.2 to 1.9 C for annual scale) from various models Change for summer heat waves (an average increase of 1 to 3.5 days) from 2 models A global rise in sea level of 20 cm by 2030 Frequency of Events Intensity of Events Winter : blue bars Spring : red bars Autumn : brown bars Annual : violet bars.

9 HAZARDS SUMMARY Hazard Time Level Ground instability / seismicity Tsunami / marine submersion Coastal erosion Flooding Water scarcity 2010 Low 2030 Medium 2010 Medium 2030 High 2010 Medium 2030 High 2010 Low 2030 Medium 2010 Low 2030 High Alexandria is at medium risk of marine submersion and costal erosion, and a comparatively lower risk of earthquake, tsunami, flooding and water scarcity. City expected to grow from 4.1m to 6.8m by 2030 (65% rate) putting pressure on the site. Physical constraints coupled with risks call for growth away from low-lying areas.

10 ECONOMIC VALUATION OF POTENTIAL DAMAGE AND LOSS The total annual average cost estimated by the study is 646 million EGP (92M US$) in 2030, or 108 EGP / person in 2030, or 0.26% of GDP of Alexandria in The net present value over the period is of about 7% of the current GDP hence some 6.5 billions EGP. Climate change related average health costs are around 278 M EGP per year, equivalent to about 0.30% of the city annual GDP. Water scarcity due to climate change might lead to an annual excess cost of 23.6 million EGP in 2030, and 10% increase in the price of water.

11 ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN LESSENING THE RISKS: OVERLAPPING ACTIONS Adaptation and resilience require multiple responses, often overlapping. Most cost-effective measures are the institutional and urban planning measures. Infrastructure investments also needed, priority actions required for high-risk areas. 11

12 URBAN PLANNING RESPONSES GOPP to orient future urban growth away from areas at risk via the forthcoming Master Plan to Critical areas of Abou Qir and El Max to be protected from marine submersion, flooding risks. Strategic Urban Plan to include climate-resilient urban development plans 12

13 INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS REQUIRED Build further sea defenses to limit coastal erosion and marine submersion due to storm surges. Promote reuse of waste water for agricultural purposes in lieu of Nile water to reduce future demand. Conduct seismic micro-zoning, and deepen the understanding of tsunamic risks and of the vulnerability of the housing stock. 13

14 ADAPTING INSTITUTIONS TO MANAGE URBAN RISKS PREPAREDNESS: Strengthening monitoring and early warning systems, in order to better prepare the city against extreme weather events. Preparation and self-protection against fast-impacting phenomena, via information and education campaigns. RISK FINANCING: Insuring against natural risks, via publicly supported schemes that would protect public as well as private investments. CAPACTIY BUILDING: Improving institutions capacity to integrate the forecasting of (fast-onset) natural risks with (slow-onset) climate change impacts. 14

15 CONCLUSION: CRITICAL POINTS Climate change have great potential impacts on the City of Alexandria and thus must be addressed. Adaptation Plan of Alexandria would help prevent effects of Climate change; actions must be considered. Adaptation Action Plan is now with Government of Egypt, for implementation. Government Organization for Physical Planning (GOPP) takes into consideration the urban risks in further planning activities. Lesson learnt: for urban projects, need to bring from the earliest stage all relevant stakeholders, and mainstream Climate change adaptation in the planning and implementation phases. 15

16 THANK YOU Tamer M. Abou Gharara Program Manager, Regional Centre for Disaster Risk Reduction / Website: Maryse Gautier Urban Programs, CDC Center for Mediterranean Integration Maryse.gautier@caissedesdepots.fr