ACTIVE DEMAND MANAGEMENT IN THE PLAN EEAC WORKSHOP. EEAC Consultant Team January 30, 2018

Transcription

1 ACTIVE DEMAND MANAGEMENT IN THE PLAN EEAC WORKSHOP EEAC Consultant Team January 30, 2018

2 INTRODUCTION The Green Communities Act directs administrators of energy efficiency plans to meet electric and natural gas resource needs first through all available energy efficiency and demand reduction resources that are cost effective or less expensive than supply [emphasis added]. EE programs reduce energy demand passive demand reduction Opportunities also exist to reduce energy demand using active demand management 2

3 WHAT IS ACTIVE DEMAND MANAGEMENT (ADM)? Active Demand Management (ADM) refers to the dynamic management of end-use customers energy demand using information, incentives, and technology. ADM products and services, which in recent years have been enabled by advances in technology and automation, can include, among other things: Direct load control Traditional and new demand response (DR) Behind the meter (BTM) battery storage Thermal storage ADM can be used for load shedding (peak demand reduction) and also for load shifting Run through next four slides for some ADM examples 3

4 Demand Demonstrations Some Examples of ADM PA Residential C&I Small Mid Large National Grid WiFi Tstat DLC (Central A/C) WiFi Tstat DLC WiFi Tstat DLC Interruptible load approaches Eversource EMS Lighting/HVAC controls WiFi Tstat DLC Software & Controls Onsite training Process audits Batteries Thermal storage Software & Controls On-site training Process audits Real time info Batteries Thermal storage Demand response CLC WiFi Tstat DLC (Central A/C) Behavioral DLC on DMSHP BTM thermal storage BTM thermal storage Unitil Battery Storage for existing solar PV systems Operations Changes to Reduce Demand (Not Approved) Key DLC Direct Load Control DMSHP Ductless Mini-Split Heat Pumps BTM Behind the Meter EMS Energy Management System Black Text 2016 Projects that have been evaluated and will continue in 2017 and Blue Text Approved 2017 and 2018 projects. Red Text New Demonstrations approved on October 30, 2017 Timeline for each Demo is Pending Green Text Proposed Demonstrations pending before Department 4

5 National Grid Demand Demonstrations National Grid DR Demonstration Offering in Plan Residential demonstration with a target of 2.6 MW of peak demand reduction C&I demonstration with a target of 41 MW of peak demand reduction Commercial and Industrial Customers Performance Based Customer Incentive of about $35 per kw per Year Residential and Small Commercial Customers Pay for Connected Device Customer Incentive of about $30 per Thermostat per Year Baseline Supported devices so far Curtailment Honeywell ecobee Nest During Event Morning Noon Night 5

6 FUTURE OF SOFTWARE & CONTROLS VALUE TO CUSTOMERS Source: Alex Do, Acuity Brands; presentation at Design Lights Consortium Stakeholder Meeting, July 2017 (Several people have used the 3/30/300 framing of customer value) 6

7 EXAMPLES OF END USES AND ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES (CA) Source: 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study, LBL, May

8 ADM EXAMPLES FOR MA TWO PRIORITIES Software and controls ADM enabling technology with LED lighting and integrated controls Lighting tuned to maximize productivity and provide ADM Could reduce lighting load by ~10% when needed/valuable Automation and agreements with customers NV Energy Example NV Energy engaged customers via thermostats for HVAC In 2017, > 60 DR direct load control events, some not at peak Not much customer override due to automation National Grid thermostat DLC demonstration is similar More events and > 100 hours of active demand management using automation and customer agreements 8

9 HOW CAN ADM BE USED, FOR WHICH OBJECTIVES, AND WHAT VALUES? ADM Service Types Across Timescales and Objectives to Meet Grid Needs Source: 2025 California Demand Response Potential Study, LBL, May

10 CONSULTANT RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADM IN PLAN Recommendation: Include goals specific to active demand management and integrate the delivery of active demand management offerings within the EE programs in the Plan. 1. Move beyond the current demand demonstrations and scale up ADM activities fully in the Plan, including claiming demand savings and quantifying impacts. 2. Integrate the delivery of ADM offerings with energy efficiency program delivery. 3. Develop a goal for ADM that is separate and distinct from goals for traditional EE/passive demand reduction. Plan, track, and report the capabilities, performance, and costs of active demand management separately and in a manner that will enable development of and tracking towards the ADM goal. 10

11 OPTIONS FOR QUANTIFYING AND MEASURING ADM IMPACTS Option 1. Megawatts (MWs) of peak demand management 2. MWs in specified performance hours Considerations Would not capture time or duration of performance. Limited to one set of performance hours that would need to be determined. 3. MWs for a set duration Often used to rate battery storage. All ADM resources would have to assume or convert to the same duration. 4. MWh as an aggregate of MW reduction MWhs can measure the total combined volume and time of ADM. Still need to know in which hours ADM performs. Consultants suggest using an ADM goal quantity that considers both volume and time therefore consider options 2, 3, or 4. 11

12 Thank you! 12

13 Appendix 13

14 ADM BENEFITS AND COST- EFFECTIVENESS In addition to an active demand management performance goal, the economic benefits of active demand management activities will be analyzed and quantified, and the planned and achieved benefits will be reported as part of total portfolio benefits. ADM Performance Goal(s) ADM Economic Value Quantified in Benefits and Cost Effectiveness ADM Costs and Impacts Reported in Data Tables and MassSaveData 14

15 Diagram of Benefits & Costs Large C&I Load Curtailment (NGrid) Costs of Generating, Transmitting, and Distributing Energy Distribution System Vendor Generation Transmission System Customer National Grid Avoided Energy ($0.098/kWh) Avoided Energy DRIPE ($0.06/kWh) Avoided Capacity ($76.95/KW yr Avoided Tx ($10.74/KW yr) Avoided Dx ($84.30/KW yr) Implementation Costs STAT, PPA & Marketing Vendors Incentives Staff Marketing Planning Customer Costs Changes to Ops Loss of Productivity Overtime System Config. Savings & Benefits flow back to the system Other Potential Benefit Streams Reduced Cost Allocation to MA Reliability DR Cost Effectiveness Example 20.6 MW of C&I Load Curtailment DR for 4 summer hours in 2017 Estimate Not Actuals DR Resource Load Curtailed Hours available KW 4 hrs Avoided Cost Benefit $/unit Benefit Value Avoided Energy ($/kwh) $ $ 8, Avoided Energy DRIPE ($/kw $ 0.06 $ 4, Avoided Capacity ($/KW yr) $ $ 1,585, Avoided Tx ($/KW yr) $ $ 221, Avoided Dx ($/KW yr) $ $ 1,736, Total Benefit $ 3,555, Estimate Not Actuals DR Resource Load Curtailed Hours available BCR = KW 4 hrs Cost to Deliver From Summer 2017 $ $/KW yr From Plan $ $/KW yr FCA 8 ( ) $84.30 $/KW yr Total Cost to Deliver $ 1,545, C&I Avoided Cost Benefit Proportions 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% % Avoided Energy ($/kwh) Avoided Energy DRIPE ($/kwh) Avoided Tx ($/KW yr) Avoided Dx ($/KW yr) Avoided Capacity ($/KW yr) 15

16 CAPACITY AVOIDED COSTS ARE CRUCIAL FOR ADM BENEFITS Active demand management measures operate for a small number of hours (often less than 1% of all hours, or less than 88 hours a year) Therefore, even very significant changes in avoided peak energy costs may have a relatively small effect Capacity, transmission, & distribution avoided costs matter most; to be calculated in the 2018 AESC study Resources bid into the Forward Capacity Market (FCM) Resources not bid into the FCM, but would affect the Installed Capacity Requirement (ICR) and future forecasts New ISO-NE market rules for 2018 to be considered Pay for Performance (PFP); energy-market-only bidding Capacity price effects (DRIPE) also important Capacity DRIPE avoided costs are likely to increase (above the ~0 value in 2015 AESC) based on recent data 16

17 ISO-NE FORECASTS OF SUMMER AND WINTER PEAK DEMAND 17

18 PASSIVE DEMAND REDUCTIONS FROM THE EE PROGRAMS MW MA Summer Capacity Savings Delivered by Energy Efficiency Programs (MW) 245 Through Q Planned Actual The PAs plan to deliver 577 MW of passive demand reductions through the energy efficiency programs per the Plan. 18