northeast group, llc Middle East & North Africa Smart Grid: Market Forecast ( ) Volume IV March

Transcription

1 northeast group, llc Middle East & North Africa Smart Grid: Market Forecast ( ) Volume IV March

2 Middle East & North Africa Smart Grid: Market Forecast ( ) Smart grid infrastructure development is accelerating in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region, showing strong potential in the near-to-medium term. In the Gulf states, high incomes, high electricity consumption, and small populations are driving smart meter deployments. Elsewhere in the region, the prevalence of high non-technical losses and Total value ($M) $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 MENA cumulative smart grid forecast CAGR: 27% Storage IT HEM WAM DA AMI Source: Northeast Group poor energy efficiency are creating positive smart grid business cases. Also, extensive solar power development and grid interconnections across the MENA region are requiring rapid grid modernization. Smart grid investment in the MENA region will largely be a state-driven process, owing to government control of nearly all power sector activity. This creates both opportunities and challenges. Gulf governments have ample cash on hand and exhibit a strong desire to modernize their countries and their economies. Smart grid deployments offer these countries an excellent opportunity to modernize their infrastructure, lay the foundation for additional energy-saving applications, and ultimately diversify their economies away from dependence on oil and gas. But governments and investors in the Gulf are also wary of the upheavals seen throughout the MENA region. Support for current governments is built in part on populist policies such as free or nearly free electricity. Some of the benefits of smart meters can only be realized with market or near-market prices for Status of national AMI rollouts in MENA countries electricity, which in some cases governments may be unwilling to implement. Several countries have recently implemented subsidy reform policies, but these are in their early stages and it remains to be seen if cost-recovery can be achieved through properly set tariff levels.

3 Political risk remains a challenge and has delayed some projects but remains low in the highspending Gulf countries. More utilities are announcing large-scale plans, grid interconnections have continued, some electricity price subsidies have been reduced, and solar power plans have grown more ambitious. All of these trends show that MENA governments understand that smart grid infrastructure investment is critical to future growth plans. In particular, MENA countries continue to move forward with smart city concepts and are looking to highlight the modernization of their economies. As these projects proliferate, the MENA smart grid market will see steady growth in the near-to-medium term, setting the stage for a very significant market between 2018 and Key questions answered in this study: How large will the smart grid market be across the MENA region? Which national rollouts in the region are proceeding on time and which are delayed? How will development of solar power impact smart grid investment in the region? What major international and local vendors are best positioned to supply the MENA market? Research Deliverables: 230-page PDF study, executive summary slides and Excel dataset. Table of Contents i. Executive Summary 1 1. What s New in Middle East & North Africa smart grid snapshot The region in comparison Regional drivers Regional challenges Regional market forecast Saudi Arabia Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity United Arab Emirates 58

4 Table of Contents (cont.) 5.1 Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Israel Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Egypt Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Qatar Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Lebanon Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Kuwait Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity 116

5 Table of Contents (cont.) 11. Jordan Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Bahrain Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Oman Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Iran Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Iraq Electricity industry structure Smart grid regulatory environment Market forecast Utility activity Other MENA countries Market drivers and barriers Algeria Morocco 169

6 Table of Contents (cont.) 14.4 Tunisia The rest of the region Battery storage Vendor activity MENA-based vendors International vendors active in smart grid in MENA Battery storage vendors Appendix 195 i. Methodology 195 ii. Smart grid overview 199 iii. Global smart grid activity 211 iv. List of companies covered in this report 214 List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables MENA smart grid: key takeaways 3 AMI deployments at top MENA distribution utilities 4 Table 1.1: Recently awarded contracts in Egypt 6 Figure 1.1: Saudi Arabia smart grid roadmap proposed timeline 7 Table 1.2: AMI activity in MENA since Figure 1.2: Status of national AMI rollouts in MENA countries 11 Table 1.3 : Upcoming and completed solar projects in the MENA region 14 Table 1.4.: Storage projects in the MENA region 15 Figure 1.3: Electricity tariff reform 16 Figure 1.4: Iraq key points 17 Figure 1.5: Iraq key points 17 Figure 1.6: Iran smart meter and economic timeline 18 Figure 1.7: Other smart grid activity in MENA region 19 Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential 22 Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption 24 Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO 2 emissions 24

7 List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.) Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth 25 Figure 2.5: Per-capita electricity consumption in MENA 26 Figure 2.6: Renewable sources of energy in MENA 27 Figure 2.7: T&D losses in MENA 29 Figure 2.8: GCC Interconnection 30 Table 2.1: Smart grid market drivers and barriers in MENA 31 Figure 2.9: Electricity prices in MENA 33 Figure 3.1: MENA AMI penetration rate 35 Figure 3.2: Gulf AMI penetration rate 35 Figure 3.3: MENA cumulative smart grid forecast by country 36 Table 3.1: MENA cumulative smart grid forecast data by country 36 Figure 3.4: MENA cumulative smart grid forecast 37 Table 3.2: MENA cumulative smart grid forecast data 37 Figure 3.5: Annual AMI deployments in MENA 38 Figure 3.6: AMI cost breakdown 39 Figure 3.7: AMI forecast by segment 41 Table 3.3: AMI forecast data by segment 41 Figure 3.8: DA forecast by segment 42 Table 3.4: DA forecast data by segment 42 Figure 3.9: HEM forecast by segment 43 Table 3.5: HEM forecast data by segment 43 Figure 3.10: IT forecast by segment 44 Table 3.6: IT forecast data by segment 44 Table 4.1: Saudi Arabia key data 45 Figure 4.1: Saudi Arabia AMI penetration rate 45 Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Saudi Arabia 46 Box 4.1: Political risk in Saudi Arabia 47 Figure 4.2: Saudi Arabia smart grid roadmap 50 Figure 4.3: Saudi Arabia residential tariff revision 51 Figure 4.4: Saudi Arabia renewable energy tenders 52 Figure 4.5: Saudi Arabia cumulative smart grid forecast 53

8 List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.) Table 4.3: Saudi Arabia cumulative smart grid forecast data 53 Figure 4.6: Saudi Arabia cumulative AMI forecast 54 Table 4.4: Saudi Arabia cumulative AMI forecast data 54 Table 5.1: UAE key data 58 Figure 5.1: UAE AMI penetration rate 58 Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in UAE 59 Box 5.1: Political risk in UAE 61 Figure 5.2: Abu Dhabi residential tariff revision 62 Figure 5.3: Voluntary dynamic pricing in Abu Dhabi 63 Figure 5.4: UAE cumulative smart grid forecast 64 Table 5.3: UAE cumulative smart grid forecast data 64 Figure 5.5: UAE cumulative AMI forecast 65 Table 5.4: UAE cumulative AMI forecast data 65 Table 5.5: Utility activity in the UAE 67 Table 6.1: Israel key data 70 Figure 6.1: Israel AMI penetration rate 70 Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Israel 71 Box 6.1: Political risk in Israel 72 Figure 6.2: Israel smart grid roadmap 73 Figure 6.3: Israel cumulative smart grid forecast 75 Table 6.3: Israel cumulative smart grid forecast data 75 Figure 6.4: Israel cumulative AMI forecast 76 Table 6.4: Israel cumulative AMI forecast data 76 Table 7.1: Egypt key data 79 Figure 7.1: Egypt AMI penetration rate 79 Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Egypt 80 Box 7.1: Political risk in Egypt 81 Figure 7.2: Egypt s 2015 Electricity Law key points 82 Figure 7.3: Egypt cumulative smart grid forecast 84 Table 7.3: Egypt cumulative smart grid forecast data 84 Figure 7.4: Egypt cumulative AMI forecast 85

9 List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.) Table 7.4: Egypt cumulative AMI forecast data 85 Table 7.5: Recently awarded contracts in Egypt 87 Table 8.1: Qatar key data 90 Figure 8.1: Qatar AMI penetration rate 90 Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Qatar 91 Box 8.1: Political risk in Qatar 92 Figure 8.2: Qatar cumulative smart grid forecast 95 Table 8.3: Qatar cumulative smart grid forecast data 95 Figure 8.3: Qatar cumulative AMI forecast 96 Table 8.4: Qatar cumulative AMI forecast data 96 Box 8.2: Pearl Qatar 97 Table 9.1: Lebanon key data 100 Figure 9.1: Lebanon AMI penetration rate 100 Table 9.2: Smart grid indicators in Lebanon 101 Box 9.1: Political risk in Lebanon 102 Figure 9.2: Lebanon cumulative smart grid forecast 105 Table 9.3: Lebanon cumulative smart grid forecast data 105 Figure 9.3: Lebanon cumulative AMI forecast 106 Table 9.4: Lebanon cumulative AMI forecast data 106 Table 10.1: Kuwait key data 109 Figure 10.1: Kuwait AMI penetration rate 109 Table 10.2: Smart grid indicators in Kuwait 110 Box 10.1: Political risk in Kuwait 111 Figure 10.2: Kuwait cumulative smart grid forecast 114 Table 10.3: Kuwait cumulative smart grid forecast data 114 Figure 10.3: Kuwait cumulative AMI forecast 115 Table 10.4: Kuwait cumulative AMI forecast data 115 Table 11.1: Jordan key data 118 Figure 11.1: Jordan AMI penetration rate 118 Table 11.2: Smart grid indicators in Jordan 119 Box 11.1: Political risk in Jordan 120

10 List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.) Figure 11.2: Jordan cumulative smart grid forecast 123 Table 11.3: Jordan cumulative smart grid forecast data 123 Figure 11.3: Jordan cumulative AMI forecast 124 Table 11.4: Jordan cumulative AMI forecast data 124 Table 12.1: Bahrain key data 127 Figure 12.1: Bahrain AMI penetration rate 127 Table 12.2: Smart grid indicators in Bahrain 128 Box 12.1: Political risk in Bahrain 129 Figure 12.2: Bahrain cumulative smart grid forecast 131 Table 12.3: Bahrain cumulative smart grid forecast data 131 Figure 12.3: Bahrain cumulative AMI forecast 132 Table 12.4: Bahrain cumulative AMI forecast data 132 Figure 13.4: Capacity and peak demand in Bahrain in 2011 and Table 13.1: Oman key data 135 Figure 13.1: Oman AMI penetration rate 135 Table 13.2: Smart grid indicators in Oman 136 Box 13.1: Political risk in Oman 137 Figure 13.2: Oman cumulative smart grid forecast 140 Table 13.3: Oman cumulative smart grid forecast data 140 Figure 13.3: Oman cumulative AMI forecast 141 Table 13.4: Oman cumulative AMI forecast data 141 Table 14.1: Iran key data 144 Figure 14.1: Iran AMI penetration rate 144 Table 14.2: Smart grid indicators in Iran 145 Box 14.1: Political risk in Iran 146 Figure 14.2: Smart meter and economic timeline 148 Figure 14.3: Iran cumulative smart grid forecast 150 Table 14.3: Iran cumulative smart grid forecast data 150 Figure 14.4: Iran cumulative AMI forecast 151 Table 14.4: Iran cumulative AMI forecast data 151 Figure 14.5: FAHAM Phase I deployments 153

11 List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.) Table 15.1: Oman key data 154 Figure 15.1: Oman AMI penetration rate 154 Table 15.2: Smart grid indicators in Oman 155 Box 15.1: Political risk in Oman 156 Figure 15.2: Oman cumulative smart grid forecast 159 Table 15.3: Oman cumulative smart grid forecast data 159 Figure 15.3: Oman cumulative AMI forecast 160 Table 15.4: Oman cumulative AMI forecast data 160 Table 16.1: Key data for other MENA countries 163 Figure 16.1: T&D losses in MENA 165 Figure 17.1: Market share of leading AMI vendors in MENA 172 Northeast Group Smart Grid Forecasting Model 198 Figure 18.1: Smart grid value chain 199 Figure 18.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in MENA 200 Table 18.1: Benefits of AMI in MENA 203 Table 18.2: Demand Response Options 206 Figure 18.3: Global smart grid activity 211 Figure 18.4: Cumulative smart grid investment from by region 212 Figure 18.5: Annual smart grid and AMI investment by region in Table 18.3: Global smart grid drivers and activity 213

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