Ahmed E. Aljuaidi David E. Rosenbergg Jagath J. Kaluarachchi. AWRA Climate Change Conference Anchorage, Alaska

Transcription

1 Water Management g Wth Wastewater Treatment and Reuse, Desalnaton, and Conveyance to Counteract Clmate Change y g n the Gaza Strp Ahmed E. Aljuad Davd E. Rosenbergg Jagath J. Kaluarachch AWRA Clmate Change Conference Anchorage, Alaska May M 4-6,

2 Outlne Study area and problems Predcted clmate change Research questons Methods Results and dscusson sson Insttutonal framework Conclusons Untreated wastewater n Wad Gaza 2

3 Gaza Strp, Palestne Total area: 365 km 2 Populaton 1.55 mllon Populaton growth rate: 3.2% More than 3500 agrcultural wells Sector Water Demand (MCM/yr) Urban Industral Agrcultural PAL. EGYPT SAUDI ARABIA Red Sea IRAN Source Quantty (MCM/yr) Ranfall 50.0 Lateral nflows 36.0 Irrgaton return flows 28.0 Water system leaks 18.0 Wastewater return flows 15.0

4 Gaza Water Problems Ineffcent water use by the agrcultural sector Lmted fresh water supply and hgh water demand Groundwater contamnaton Over abstracton Seawater ntruson Over abstracton Wastewater dsposal Water de efct (MCM) Gaza strp Jordan Palestnan Water Authorty, 2005; Abu Mad, 2004

5 Predcted Clmate Changes Up to 4 o C warmer 20% less precptaton 15% reductons n stream flow and groundwater recharge PWA and CDM, 2007 Abdulla and Al-Omar, 2008 Abu-Taleb, 2000 Oroud, 2008 We consder a 15% reducton n annual water avalablty from the Gaza aqufer 147 to 125 MCM/year 5

6 Research Objectves 1) Economc effects of reduced water avalablty on Gaza water system 2) Infrastructure to mtgate and counteract effects 3) Infrastructure szng 4) Insttutonal changes to facltate response

7 Methodology Water Allocaton Systems model (Fsher et al., 2005) Sngle year determnstc optmzaton program Economc benefts of water use Costs of supply, conveyance, treatment, and reuse Net beneft Shadow value of water Analyze system behavor under dfferent scenaros Water avalablty Infrastructure

8 Water Allocaton System Analyss Objectve functon Max b = α + 1 ( Net Benefts ) ( Servce Demand ) Demand Curve P = b (Q Fresh + Q Recycled ) α α + 1 Local Sources, Imports Costs, Exports, Wastewater Treatment, Desalnat on Cost functon. ($/unt) Prce P* Q* Quantty (unts) 8

9 Contnuty Constrant (Inputs = Outputs) Water Use = Local Sources + Imports Exports + Treated Wastewater ( 1 Loss Rate ), Imports from other dstrcts Shared sources Local sources Imports of treated wastewater from other dstrcts Treated wastewater from Dstrct t Leakage Dstrct Leakage Use to meet demands Use to meet Ag. demand Exports to other dstrcts Exports to other dstrcts A. Freshwater B. Recycled water 9

10 Shadow values outputs Margnal wllngness to pay to obtan 1 addtonal unt of water SV Dstrct 1 CC 12 From Dstrct 1 to Dstrct 2 SV Dstrct 2 Interpretaton: SV CC 2 SV 1 12 Buld conveyance when dfference n shadow values between dstrcts s larger than conveyance cost Buld a desalnaton plant when shadow value n dstrct on a seacoast s greater than desalnaton cost 10

11 Scenaro Model lscenaros Water Avalablty (MCM/year) Descrpton 1. Base case 147 Demand n 2030 wth exstng nfrastructure 2. Base case wth clmate 125 Groundwater avalablty change reduced by 15% 3. Base case wth optmal nfrastructure 125 Very large nfrastructure capactes for desalnaton, WWTPs, conveyance 11

12 Results Scenaro Water avalablty (MCM/yr) Annual net benefts ($ Mll /yr) WWTP capacty (MCM/yr) Desal. capacty (MCM/yr) Convey. capacty (MCM/yr) Captal costs ($ Mll) Present value benefts ($ bllon) 1. Base case Base case wth clmate change 3. Clmate change wth optmal nfrastructure

13 Shadow value of water ($/m 3 ) Shadow Value Results Base case Base case wth clmate change Clmate change wth optmal nfrastructure N.Gaza Gaza Der al- Khan- Rafah Balah Youns 13

14 Insttutonal Framework MOLG Local Authorty Wastewater Pond MoH EQA PSI MOLG Local Authorty Wastewater Treatment Plant PCBS MoPIC Academc EQA PSI MoA Insttuton PARC PWA MoH Agrcultural Dstrbuton System MOLG: Mnstry of Local Governorate MoH: Mnstry of Health EQA: Envronmental Qualty Authorty Data source Insttuton Agrcultural users PSI: Palestnan Standards Insttute MoPIC:Mnstry of Plannng and Internatonal Cooperaton MoA: Mnstry of Agrculture Infrastructure PARC: Palestnan Agrcultural l Relef Commttees PCBS: Palestnan Central Bureau of Statstcs PWA: Palestnan Water Authorty 14

15 Conclusons Clmate change wll mpose sgnfcant costs on Gaza water system New nfrastructure can mtgate mpacts and ncrease benefts Recommended nfrastructure szes 136 MCM/year WWTs 96 MCM/year Desalnaton 30 MCM/year conveyance from Gaza to Khan-Youns and Rafah Benefts far exceed costs to restructure nsttutons 15

16 References Fsher, F. M., A. Huber-Lee, I. Amr, S. Arlosoroff, Z. Ecksten, M. J. Haddadn, S. G. Hamat, A. M. Jarrar, A. F. Jayyous, U. Shamr, and H. Wesselng, Lqud Assets: An economc approach for water management and conflct resoluton n the Mddle East and beyond, Resources for the Future, Washngton, D.C. Rosenberg, D.E., R.E. Howtt, and J.R. Lund, Water Management wth water conservaton, nfrastructure expansons, and source varablty n Jordan, Water Resources Research, Vol. 44, do: /2007wr Al-Juad Juad, A. E., Water allocaton for agrcultural use consderng treated wastewater, publc health rsk, and economc ssues. PhD dssertaton, Utah State Unversty. 149 p. 16

17 ?? Questons?? Ahmed E. Aljuad Ahmed.al- l d Davd E. Rosenberg davd.rosenberg@usu.edu Jagath J Kaluarachch Jagath J. Kaluarachch jkalu@engneerng.usu.edu