ANNUAL MEETING MASTER OF PETROLEUM ENGINEERING. 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 1

Transcription

1 ANNUAL MEETING MASTER OF PETROLEUM ENGINEERING 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 1

2 Agenda Natural Gas and LNG Changes in the LNG Supply Chain FLNG State of the Art / Risks Findings about the CSF for FLNGs so far The next step 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 2

3 Is there a future for Natural Gas? 8.7 Billion people by 2035 China and India will grow 5.5 % (average) until 2035 World s GDP/capita estimated to increase 75% Demand for Natural Gas will grow 1.9 % / year Transportation using natural gas will grow 3% / year Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035 Report, February /May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 3

4 Liquified Natural Gas Demand is real What about the supply? Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035 Report, February /May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 4

5 Evolution of LNG Global Trade Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission - HÖEGH LNG PARTNERS LP, July 3, /May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 5

6 Liquified Natural Gas what is it? Between 87% mol to 99% mol of methane (CH 4 ) The liquefaction process involves removal of certain components Condensed into a liquid at close to atmospheric pressure by cooling it to approximately 162 C Takes up about 1/600 th the volume of natural gas in the gaseous state 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 6

7 Why LNG? LNG industry has supplied markets without gas from places with gas without a market Safe Possibility of storage Environmental friendly 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 7

8 LNG Industry essential ingredients Sufficient gas reserves Long term commitments Access to Capital Strong relationships amongst all stakeholders External advisers Government regulations Ironically, this happens with the simplest hidrocarbon molecule! 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 8

9 The problem is Many potential reservoirs, but -> too small / too far ->onshore `no-go zones 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 9

10 Furthermore Other entrants in the market, i.e. Other substitutes, i.e. 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 10

11 Changes in the traditional LNG Supply Chain Source: FLNG DETERMINING THE TECHNICAL AND COMMERCIAL BOUNDARIES, KBR 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 11

12 FLNG What is it? Floating, Production, Liquefaction, Storage, Offloading the possibility to monetize undeveloped or stranded gas fields 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 12

13 Why is this topic relevant? Source: KPMG Global Energy Institute, LNG report series /May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 13

14 FLNG Technology potencially reduces Cost Environment footprint No need for long pipelines to shore; compression platforms to push the gas to shore; nearshore works such as dredging and jetty construction; onshore development such as building roads, laydown areas and accommodation facilities. 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 14

15 FLNG Prelude - The largest facility ever built Length meters Breath - 74 meters m 3 of LNG m 3 of LPG m 3 of Condensate Source: 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 15

16 The Prelude FLNG project Source: Prelude Floating LNG Project, Draft Environmental Impact Statement 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 16

17 Gas Treatment and Liquefaction Source: Mokhatab (2014) 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 17

18 Technical risks Safety Aspect on Space Constraints Technology Risk/Uncertainty Ship Motions Offshore LNG Offloading Hull Fluid Management 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 18

19 Commercial Risks Contractor and Fabrication Competence Project Execution Availability Oil and Gas Prices 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 19

20 Is the design extrapolation from An FPSO Onshore LNG project a slight deviation or a completely new application? 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 20

21 The Critical Success Factors for FLNGs so far Interface Management PM and PMT Stakeholders Scope of Work Critical Success Factors Regulatory Framework Cost Management and Finance FEED Planning 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 21

22 The next step Interview with experts across the value chain 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 22

23 The question remains. what are the critical success factors in a FLNG project? Source: 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 23

24 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 24

25 References BP. (2015). Energy Outlook BP. Bukowski, J. et al. (2013) NATURAL GAS LIQUEFACTION TECHNOLOGY FOR FLOATING LNG FACILITIES, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc Caswell,C. et al. (2010), FLNG DETERMINING THE TECHNICAL AND COMMERCIAL BOUNDARIES, KBR Christodoulou, I. (2015), Challenges and opportunities that define the success of an FPSO project, University of Nordland IGU. (2015). World LNG Report Edition. International Gas Union. Inkpenn, A., & Moffet, M. (2011). Global Oil / Gas Industry - Management, Strategy & Finance. Tulsa, Oklahoma: PennWell Corporation. International Energy Agency. (2015). Energy and Climate Change - World Energy Outlook Special Report. Paris: IEA.. 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 25

26 KPMG International. (2014). Floating LNG:Revolution and evolution for theglobal industry? KPMG. LNG World News. (4 de March de 2016). South Korea: Petronas holds naming ceremony for its first FLNG unit. LNG World News. Mokhatab, S. (2014). The handbook of Liquified Natural Gas. ELSEVIER. Mollard, F., Robert, C. FLOATING LNG: THE CHALLENGES OF PRODUCTION SYSTEMS AND WELL FLUID MANAGEMENT, Process & Technologies Division, Upstream Offshore Process Engineering, Technip, Paris, France Stegenga, S., Pek, B.. (2011). Floating LNG Groundbreaking Innovation Becoming a Reality. International Petroleum Technology Conference. Bangkok, Thailand, 7 9 February 2012.: IPTC. Tusiani, M., Shearer, G., (2007). LNG A NONTECHNICAL GUIDE, PennWell Corporation, Tulsa, Oklaoma Wang, X., Economides, M., (2009). Advanced Natural Gas Engineering. Gulf Publishing Company, Houston, Texas. 3/May/2016 Instituto Superior Técnico 26