November Kevin KIM Korea Energy Management Corporation, KEMCO

Transcription

1 GHG Emission BAU in the Industrial Process Sector November Kevin KIM Korea Energy Management Corporation, KEMCO

2 1 Background 2 BAU Estimation 3 Result

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4 Energy consumption & GHG emissions primary & final energy consumption CO 2 emissions LNG Oil Energy Nuclear Coal Renewables, etc (Mtoe) % % 11.7% Transportation 7.9% etc 2.2% Industrial process Agriculture, waste (Mt CO2) Transport 14.8% Residential/ Commercial 10.3% etc 1.3% % 14.2% 3.2% 14.1% 9.8% 52.0% 16.8% 38.1% (Mtoe) Industry 61.6% 81.9% 80.7% 85.3% Power generation 44.5% 53.8% 26.2% 22.2% 30.4% Transport 18.2% Energy consumption by sector( 11) 6.8% 11.4% 11.2% 7.8% 9.4% 5.3% Industry 29.2% Industrial sector (9.4%) 01

5 Halocarbon production Halocarbon consumption Chemistry Mineral production Emission source Halocarbon production/consumption Mineral production Chemical industry Metal production GHG emission trend in industrial sector (1990~2010) The Industrial sector amount : 9.4%(62.8Mt CO2) of total national emission (2010) HFCs, PFCs, SF6 consumption(49.2%) and Mineral industry(49.2%) accounts for 98.4% (2010) Annual increase rate of 9.1% in the total emission, compared to 2009 (2010) CO2,(49.7%) > SF6(31.4%) > HFCs(13%), (2010) All of source from industrial sector has increased compared to 2009 except for chemistry(-4.1%) 02

6 Projected National GHG Reduction Path ( ) Projected National GHG Reduction Path ( ) 03

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9 Activity description in industrial sector Emission in the process of producing Times series differs from common consumption pattern Methodology Technology change, Market trend applied Methodology verification process 07

10 Source Specific Source Methodology approach 2.A. Mineral 1. Cement production 2. Lime production 3. Limestone/Dolomite usage 4. Sodium carbonate production/consumption Activity 1996 IPCC GL/GPG 2000 Emission (CO 2 ) 2.B. Chemistry 1. Ammonia production (CO2) 2. Nitric Acid production (N2O) 3. Adipic Acid Production (N2O) 4. Petrochemical product (CH4) Activity 1996 IPCC GL/GPG 2000 Emission (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) 2.C.Metal 2.D. Extra 2.E.HFCs,PFCs,S F6 production 1. Steel production 2. Ferro Alloy production 1. Paper 2. Food 1. By-product (HFCs) Activity 1996 IPCC GL Emission (CO 2 ) Activity 1996 IPCC GL Emission (Indirect emission) Activity 1996 IPCC GL Emission (HFCs) 2.F.HFCs,PFCs,S F6 consumption 1. Cooling & Air-condition (HFCs) 2. Semiconductor and Display (PFCs) 3. Electric Appliance (SF6) Activity 1996 IPCC GL/ 2006 IPCC GL Emission (HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 ) 06

11 Emission mitigation though CDM project - The emission coming from Nitro Acid, Adipic Acid production plant is applied to national emission inventory 2006 IPCC GL is partly applied - HFCs, PFCs, SF6 consumed at Semiconductor, Display sector 2006 IPCC Coefficient appliance (Methodology : 2000 Good Practice Guidance) CO2 emission recalculation : Limestone in power sector - Limestone used at Flue Gas Desulfurization in power plant - Data availability of limestone usage is applied to national inventory 07

12 Composed of 4 Modules Sector Mineral Cement Production Sodium carbonate Limestone and Dolomite usage ( 석회석, 백운석소비 ) Quick Lime Production ( 시멘트생산 ) consumption ( 소다회소비 ) - for Pig iron and Power ( 생석회생산 ) Process Available Data Activity Data Cement sector Value added,clinker Production data Consumption of Sodium carbonate according to Glass Production (Data : GDP forecast) Production of pig iron Intensity of bituminous coal power, power generation amount Consumption of quick lime In steel industry (Data : GDP forecat) Emission Estimation Intensity Approach Define clinker production per capita as Time variable Two-stage least squares (RMSE, MAPE, MAE) Least squares Approach (RMSE, MAPE, MAE) Intensity Approach Least squares Approach (RMSE, MAPE, MAE) 08

13 Composed of 4 Modules Sector Chemistry Ammonia Production Nitric Acid Production Adipic Acid Production Carbon Black Production Petrochemical product Ethylene EDC ( 에틸렌디클로라이드 ) Process N2(g) + 3H2(g) 2NH3(g) + 92kJ - Available Data Activity Data Chemistry value-added, ammonia production Oil fraction and Nitric acid production (CDM registed) Oil fraction and Adipic acid production (CDM registed) Oil fraction and carbon black production Oil fraction and ethylene production Oil fraction and EDC production Emission Estimation Least squares Approach (RMSE, MAPE, MAE) Least squares Approach (RMSE, MAPE, MAE) Intensity (Increasing rate) Least squares Approach (RMSE, MAPE, MAE) Least squares Approach (RMSE, MAPE, MAE) Least squares Approach (RMSE, MAPE, MAE) 09

14 Composed of 4 Modules Sector Metal Halocarbon production and consumption ( 06) Steel and Ferro alloy production (Graphite electrode) HCFC-22 production HFCs consumption Semiconductor Display (LCD, PDP, OLED) Process - Refrigerant for air condition Available Data Forecast production in the steel-making, HCFC-22 production Allowance HFCs Consumption Value added of Mask layer trend and Display production and Activity Data Graphite electrode usage (Using CDM Project, Government plan) transportation equipment Production rate. mask layer trend Emission Estimation Intensity Approach Government plan : production cold phase( 30) Emission Phase -out Least squares Approach (RMSE, MAPE, MAE) Intensity elasticity (%intensity/%square) Intensity Approach - Weighted square * weighted square intensity 10

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16 Mt CO2 BaU in industrial process sector Halocarbon Metal Chemistry Mineral

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