Presentation by Panel of Experts based on Environmental and Social Screening Report Almaty 6-7 November 2012

Transcription

1 Presentation 5 Proposed Rogun Hydropower Project Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) process Presentation by Panel of Experts based on Environmental and Social Screening Report Almaty 6-7 November 2012 Torkil Jønch Clausen (water resources) Erik Helland-Hansen (planning/hydropower) Richard Fuggle (environment) Frederic Giovannetti (resettlement) 1

2 PANEL OF EXPERTS TERMS OF REFERENCE To ensure due diligence and international quality standard of studies To provide independent advice and guidance to support objectivity and credibility in the assessment process To share technical expertise and knowledge To assure a level of international confidence in the quality and integrity of the assessment process and findings 2

3 SUMMARY OF FIRST VISIT May 2011 KEY DRIVERS FOR THE ANALYSIS 1. Basin hydrology 2. Dam height 3. Reservoir operations 4. Lessons learned from Nurek HPP KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ESIA PROCESS 1. Coordinate TEAS and ESIA closely 2. Assess Rogun HPP in the wider basin context, based on hydrologic modelling 3. Give immediate attention to site conditions, occupational health and review past resettlement 4. Promote dialogue and information sharing among riparians 5. Give more attention to climate change 3

4 SUMMARY OF SECOND VISIT Review the Draft ES Screening Report Emphasis on need to ensure that the interests of all relevant parties are being addressed by the Draft Screening Report: Barki Tojik and GoT The World Bank The Consultants (Coyne et Bellier and Pöyry) Stakeholders and the riparian countries Review of approach to all proposed studies with recommendations for having them undertaken in accordance with international best practice Interacting through site visits and discussions with aim of being of help and assistance to all parties POE Report: Screening Stage Visit, 1-12 Aug

5 ROLE OF THE ESIA SCREENING REPORT (ESSR) To provide an overview of the prevailing physical, biological and social conditions in the project area To identify environmental and social issues which will be affected significantly by the project To determine what information and data is already available on relevant issues, and what data still has to be obtained (e.g. by specific field work) To develop a further work plan for the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment. The ESSR was recently strengthened by additional data and text 5

6 PoE REVIEW OF THE ESSR First draft reviewed in August 2011 PoE Report Second draft reviewed in October 2012 Additional studies and material on downstream situation 6

7 OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE SCREENING REPORT A: Issues covered in depth, little additional work required: - vegetation, fauna, archaeology B: Issues covered to some extent, some additional work required - geology, protected areas, construction site management - social impacts/resettlement C: Issues requiring immediate and considerable attention - hydrology/sediments/climate change - downstream impacts - economic analysis: environmental/social aspects 7

8 GROUP A LITTLE ADDITIONAL WORK Few detailed comments provided by Panel directly to consultant 8

9 GROUP B SOME ADDITIONAL WORK GEOLOGY: Additional analysis of landslides along reservoir to be coordinated with TEAS PROTECTED AREAS: A few questions directly to consultant on evidence concerning water quality and groundwater decline in Tigrovaya Balka CONSTRUCTION SITE: Some discussion on Western versus local level standards for Environmental Health and Safety RESERVOIR: Analysis of reservoir overturn and stratification characteristics RESETTLEMENT: Site visits and substantial discussions 9

10 RESETTLEMENT - OVERVIEW Since late 2010, a dedicated resettlement unit ( Directorate for the Inundation Zone of Rogun ) is in place The Panel assesses progress and first achievements as positive A few issues remained to be addressed to reach compliance with World Bank requirements, an indicator of international good practice 10

11 RESETTLEMENT KEY ISSUES Livelihood restoration assistance and monitoring: - Assist resettlers in restoring their livelihoods Timely payment of cash compensation: Costs and funding of the overall resettlement programme for the whole reservoir area: - Overall budget - Assess current resettlement standards 11

12 RESETTLEMENT/SOCIAL IMPACT SUMMARY Resettlement principles and implementation are close to compliance with World Bank resettlement policy, with some remaining issues Consultants proposed Resettlement Policy Framework, Resettlement Audit and Resettlement Action Plan are expected to support the resettlement unit in solving the outstanding issues. The social baseline gathered by the Consultants can also be used as a tool for further monitoring Only resettlement is addressed in the Screening Report Other social impacts typical of large infrastructure projects, such as population influx during construction, are not discussed 12

13 PUBLIC CONSULTATION PLAN The Resettlement Unit is engaging well with affected communities and has a grievance mechanism in place However, no plan has been presented for public consultation and disclosure, particularly in respect of the ESIA process Panel recommends that the consultant should develop a public Consultation and Disclosure Plan 13

14 The sediment problem Hydrology and modeling Downstream impacts Climate change Economic analyses TEAS-ESIA coordination Some very important additions to modeling and downstream impacts have been added GROUP C IMMEDIATE ATTENTION 14

15 THE SEDIMENT PROBLEM Sediment loads, their transport to Rogun dam and through the Vakhsh cascade are a critical factor for the environmental and social consequences of project design and operation. There is an immediate need for specialist sedimentology input to project teams: consultants, Bank and Panel. Climate change scenarios must also be linked to changes in sediment flows. 15

16 HYDROLOGY AND MODELLING A common, up-to-date hydrologic data set will be used for all studies, by both TEAS and ESIA consultants. An operational model capable of assessing hydrological scenarios and reservoir operations for the entire Vakhsh cascade (not only Rogun and Nurek) is needed. An operational model of the entire Amu Darya Basin, with Vakhsh cascade output as an input, to analyze impacts on downstream riparians will be considered depending on cascade modeling results Data on Pyanj flows at the Pyanj/Vakhsh confluence as boundary condition for modeling downstream of the confluence as e.g. to separate climate change impacts between Vakhsh and Pyanj 16

17 SCENARIOS AND MODELING FRAMEWORK - work starting - GoT, HPM, TEAS, ESIA 17

18 NUREK EXPERIENCE Nurek experience analyzed: - downstream hydrology - impact on Tigrovaya Balka Nurek experience to be analyzed - reservoir/limnology - sedimentation Depending on data availability 18

19 DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS: HYDROLOGY Nurek to confluence: - data on flows and water levels for ecosystem assessments is now available for use in modelling Amu Darya depending on need: Interactive seasonal models (10 days 1 month) enabling affected parties to both interrogate them and explore how Amu Darya flows will react to different situations - energy demands - water demands - floods and droughts - reservoir filling - emergency drawdown - climate change 19

20 DOWNSTREAM RIPARIAN ISSUES In 1995, the Central Asian states adopted the Nukus Declaration which stipulates "We agree that the Central Asian states acknowledge the agreements, contracts and other legal texts signed and enacted earlier, regulating their relationship on water resources in the Aral basin, and steadily perform them". The only document regulating relations between the states of Central Asia on water resources in the Amu Darya basin is Protocol No. 566, which was adopted by the Nukus Declaration as the fundamental document for this interstate distribution. This document defines the annual limits of water supply to each country as follows. 20

21 DOWNSTREAM RIPARIAN ISSUES - Allocation of Amu Darya water resources by country Country billion m³ % Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Total

22 DOWNSTREAM RIPARIAN ISSUES - Water allocation and use in BVO countries Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Aral Sea Limits as per Protocol No. 566 (Mm³) Average volume allocated by ICWIC (Mm³) 9' '000 29'600 3' Actually used volume (Mm³) Actually used volume (% of ICWIC allocation) Actually used volume (% of Prot. No. 566 allocation)

23 DOWNSTREAM RIPARIAN ISSUES Within Nukus/Protocol 566 framework, BVO countries meet annually to discuss and agree on seasonal allocations Further analysis of applicable international laws and agreements need to be made and their ratification status included. 23

24 CLIMATE CHANGE - 1 Climate change needs to be considered in hydrologic and sediment analyses: short term/50 years (melting, increased run-off) and long term/200 years (reduced snow cover, decreased run-off) - Vakhsh catchment: design, impacts - Amu Darya Basin: impacts Panel view: agree with consultant that for Rogun - resulting GHG emissions (methane, carbon dioxide) insignificant - micro-climate change due to reservoir insignificant 24

25 CLIMATE CHANGE - 2 A general discussion of climate change in Screening Report, concluding with proposal for further studies, including GCM down-scaling and modelling. Panel view: need to analyze all relevant available information and models first (from Tajikistan, Central Asia, ICIMOD etc.), and then make possible proposals for further studies, jointly by TEAS and ESIA in which CC considerations are factored in. 25

26 ECONOMIC ANALYSES Environmental and social costs and benefits as input to B/C analysis by TEAS consultants Systematic comparison of the costs and benefits of different dam heights, spillway and draw-off configurations Benefit- cost considerations for downstream impacts in Tajikistan and Amu Darya riparian countries 26

27 ESIA-TEAS COORDINATION Two studies - two consultants - two POEs, but one Basin, one Rogun Need for close coordination stressed by both Panels in May on hydrology, sediments, cascade modeling, economic analyses, geology and induced i.e. triggered seismicity Immediate improvement critical 27

28 CLARIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIPARIAN ISSUES - Diagrammatic view of river system in the study area 28

29 CLARIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIPARIAN ISSUES - Effect of Nurek and Irrigation on Vakhsh River before Nurek 1800 m³/s Komsomolobod Sariguzar Tigrovaya Balka Illustrates historical water use for irrigation in Vakhsh River without regulation. J/Я F/Ф M/М A/А M/М J/И J/И A/А S/С O/О N/Н D/Д with Nurek Illustrates effect of Nurek storage on seasonal flows in Vakhsh River m³/s Komsomolobod J/Я F/Ф M/М A/А M/М J/И J/И A/А S/С O/О N/Н D/Д Sariguzar Tigrovaya Balka 29

30 CLARIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIPARIAN ISSUES - The use of water resources for irrigation in the Aral Sea basin Source: ENVSEC,

31 CLARIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIPARIAN ISSUES - Present water use in Amu Darya Basin 31

32 CLARIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIPARIAN ISSUES - Hydraulic modeling approach and aim Further discussions of approach to cascade and basin modeling are required ensure that POE concerns are taken into consideration. Any modeling and analysis of downstream impacts, and possible mitigation measures, require active dialogue with all riparians A key issue will be to minimize downstream effects during the filling period the cascade modeling is key to identifying how 32

33 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS - 1 The Panel recommends that the ESIA consultants: Follow-up on previous Panel recommendations Recognize the critical importance of sediment issues Engage with GoT and TEAS in Vakhsh cascade modelling and modeling of the Amu Darya, based on a common and updated data set Accelerate activity on analysis of downstream impacts Analyze relevant available information and models on climate change in the Amu Darya Basin 33

34 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS - 2 The Panel recommends that the ESIA consultants: Estimate environmental and social benefits and costs for alternative designs Strengthen and finalize Resettlement Audit, Framework and Plan Address non-resettlement social impacts Prepare the Public Consultation and Disclosure Plan Continue to improve cooperation with TEAS consultants 34

35 FINAL REMARKS The ES-PoE reemphasizes these recommendations Several call for close cooperation with TEAS - notably sedimentation issues and climate change. The modeling should provide answers - and also bring out positive impacts of building Rogun dam upstream of Nurek Premature conclusions should be avoided. 35

36 THANK YOU 36