National Carp Control Plan Workshop Presentation

Transcription

1 National Carp Control Plan Workshop Presentation

2 Are carp the river wreckers they re made out to be? Source: Vilizzi et al. 2015

3 \ Understanding & optimising efficacy Confirming transmission routes Understanding genetic resistance risk Investigating virus cross reactivity Role of seasonality on carp mortality Computer modelling virus spread & efficacy Satisfy Regulatory Req ments NCCP Outputs EPBC Report Determine salinity tolerance of virus Estimating carp biomass Population modelling Understanding Risk Managing Risk Understanding risk of low dissolved oxygen Understanding risk of blue-green algae Human infection risk? Review of research confirming spp specificity Understand stakeholder views Estimating carp welfare Identify clean-up methods Options for biomass utilisation Sex biasing as synergistic method Control by commercial fishing Completion of research confirming spp specificity Co-designing risk control measures Exploring engineering solutions to fish kills Determining & managing water treatment risks Systematic Risk Assessment Comms & Engagement program Indigenous engagement EPBC Plan NCCP Operations Strategy National Carp Control Plan Final Reports Benefits & Costs Predicting medium & long-term benefits of carp control Estimating Benefits & costs

4 Mesocosms 1000kg/h 500kg/h 250kg/h Control 0kg/h March 2017 November-December 2016

5 Sampling Protocol Daily Sampling Temperature Dissolved Oxygen Conductivity ph Turbidity Weekly sampling Nutrients Chlorophyll MIB & Geosmin Phytoplankton Algal Concentration Algal Identification Microbiological Total coliforms E coli DNA Identification Genus level

6 Dissolved Oxygen % saturation Dissolved Oxygen % Saturation November-December R Day 250 March Day

7 Total Coliforms (cfu/100ml) Total Coliforms (cfu/100ml) November-December ,500, ,000,000.0 Control 0 kg/h 1200 kg/h 2300 kg/h 6000 kg/h 6000 kg/h RM1W 500, ,000, Day March Control 0 kg/h 250 kg/h 500 kg/h 1000 kg/h Day

8 Chlorophyll-a (ug/l) Chlorophyll-a Rnd 1 and 2 Control 0 kg/h 250 kg/h 500 kg/h 1000 kg/h 1200 kg/h 2300 kg/h 6000 kg/h 6000 kg 1wk RM Lake Rnd 1 Lake Rnd Day

9 Nitrogen Total (mg/l) Phosphorus Total (mg/l) 10 1 Phosphorus Rd 1 & 2 Control 0 kg/h 250 kg/h 500 kg/h 1000 kg/h 1200 kg/h 2300 kg/h 6000 kg/h 6000 kg/h RM1W Lake Rnd 1 Lake Rnd Day Nitrogen Rd 1 & 2 Control 0 kg/h Rnd 1 Control 0 kg/h Rnd kg/h 500 kg/h 1000 kg/h 1200 kg/h 2300 kg/h 6000 kg/h 6000 kg/h RM1W Day

10 Dilution factor mesocosm to lakes Lakes Volume Dilution Factor Hume 3GL 45 Burragorang 2GL 85 Prospect 50000ML 31 Burley Griffin 33000ML 16 Albert Park Lake 750ML 5 Duck Pond 66ML 3 Mesocosm 2000L 1 Mill Pond 3ML <1 Model Yacht Pond 0.4ML <1

11 Conclusions Decrease in Dissolved oxygen levels Increase in Nutrients Bacteria Algae Taste and odour compounds Effects were amplified and lasted longer with increased carp biomass

12 Progress - Biomass Budget Close to first estimates of biomass for key habitats. Wide range (20kg 1500kg/ha) Good precision Critical: informs epidemiological modelling, risk and cost. Problem: there are many farm dams (780,000).

13 Progress - Modelling Budget Close to first estimates of biomass for key habitats. No national water temp data layer had to invent it. Demonstrated relationship btw air temp and water temp Used relationship to examine OS outbreaks All in spring/early summer. Implications for timing, duration and risk

14 Progress - Modelling Budget Modelling follows 80/20 rule with respect to knockdown. Key factors: density, concentration, temperature. Carpageddon is very unlikely to occur. Release (if approved) appears possible more like surgical excision than chemotherapy. New knowledge gaps identified, seeking options to address them. CARP KNOCKDOWN RATE

15 Progress water quality Day 1: C-day Day 21 Day 42

16 Progress water quality image classification river/floodplain/wetland % cover woody veg % bare grasses Variation in: Surface roughness Water shading Wind sheltering Predict: Water velocity Water temperature Re-aeration Oxygen demand

17 Predicting hotspots: trial simulations Hotspot carp particle accumulation locations

18 Progress Ecological benefits Budget Interdisciplinary process early indications of significant benefits from carp reduction. Supported by recent research (Kopf et al 2018).

19 IAIN ELLIS TA-RU WETLAND, 2012

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21 For further Information: Matt Barwick National Coordinator FRDC Joe Pera Water Scientist Water NSW, UTS