Energiperspektiver og klimarisiko et selskapsperspektiv Presentasjon for klimarisikoutvalget, Oslo, 4 mai 2018 Eirik Wærness, Senior Vice President

Transcription

1 Energiperspektiver og klimarisiko et selskapsperspektiv Presentasjon for klimarisikoutvalget, Oslo, 4 mai 218 Eirik Wærness, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist

2 Agenda Om energiscenarier mange mulige fremtider, med ulike utfall og konsekvenser Om prisusikkerhet Om klimarisiko for et selskap Oppfølging TCFD, bærekraftsrapport En robust strategi for å ta høyde for ulike utfall 2

3 Agenda Om energiscenarier mange mulige fremtider, med ulike utfall og konsekvenser Om prisusikkerhet Om klimarisiko for et selskap Oppfølging TCFD, bærekraftsrapport En robust strategi for å ta høyde for ulike utfall 3

4 Three different tales of the future towards 25 None are BAU Renewal is a tremendous challenge Market-driven Constructive market rule Reform Energy supply security concerns Policy-driven Renewal Local pollution concerns Rivalry Destructive market rule Global precautionary focus Local/national permissive focus 4

5 Key #1: Energy efficiency improvement GDP times higher in 25, Energy demand -5% + 3% step change in energy efficiency Energy intensity Index, 199=1 Reform Renewal Rivalry World GDP and energy demand Index, 199= Reform Renewal Rivalry World energy demand per fuel Billion toe New Renewables Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Unchanged EI decline Ref Ren Riv Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 5

6 Key #2: Speeding up the change in energy mix with Renewal displaying a paradigm shift Global energy mix % New RES 8 5 Biomass 6 4 Hydro Nuclear Gas 2 Oil Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv Coal Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 6

7 CO 2 emissions determined by demand and mix Policies, markets and technology having varying impact World CO 2 emissions Reform Renewal Rivalry Billion tons IEA NP IEA 45 IEA 66% chance of 2 o C World CO 2 emissions Billion tons Rest of world India China OECD Pacific European Union OECD Americas Cumulative CO 2 1 emissions in Renewal 215-5: 848 Gt Ref Ren Riv Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 7

8 Huge investments needed in oil in all scenarios to replace production and satisfy demand Oil demand and supply from existing fields Million barrels per day Cumulative oil demand gap 215-5, compared Billion barrels Reform Renewal Rivalry Demand range 1, Saudi Arabia Potential legacy production Renewal add-on Reform add-on Rivalry add-on Norway USA Opec 4 2 Production Decline range Cumulative oil demand USA Opec Norway Cumulative production Source: Statoil Source: Statoil (projections), BP statistical review of world energy (history) 8

9 and the same is the case for gas to replace production and satisfy demand Gas demand and supply from existing fields Billion cubic meters Cumulative gas demand gap 215-5, compared Trillion cubic meters 6 4 Reform Renewal Rivalry Demand range US Potential legacy production Renewal add-on Rivalry add-on Reform add-on Norway ME Russia 2 Production Decline range Cumulative gas demand USA Russia Middle East Norway Cumulative production Source: Statoil Source: Statoil (projections), BP statistical review of world energy (history) 9

10 Agenda Om energiscenarier mange mulige fremtider, med ulike utfall og konsekvenser Om prisusikkerhet Om klimarisiko for et selskap Oppfølging TCFD, bærekraftsrapport En robust strategi for å ta høyde for ulike utfall 1

11 On price uncertainty Energy prices (indexed week 1 25=1, 8 weeks moving avg) HH Brent NBP Nord Pool Energy prices vary and will continue to do so, irrespective of scenario Long-term wholesale price levels determined by fundamentals costs and demand levels A key uncertainty is also electricity markets characterized by large share of zero marginal cost sources How will different climate policies affect consumer and producer prices of different commodities? Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Nord Pool 11

12 Agenda Om energiscenarier mange mulige fremtider, med ulike utfall og konsekvenser Om prisusikkerhet Om klimarisiko for et selskap Oppfølging TCFD, bærekraftsrapport En robust strategi for å ta høyde for ulike utfall 12

13 What is Climate-related risks? Risk in general Risk = Consequences + Uncertainty Risk assessment = Specified consequences + probabilities and background knowledge Climate risk: Risks related to climate changes TCFD has identified the following climate risk categories: Climate-Related Risks ( downside risks ) Transition risks risks related to a transition to a lowercarbon economy Physical risks risks related to the physical impacts of climate change Climate-Related Opportunities ( upside risks ) 13

14 Climate-related risks for an Enterprise Question 1: How could the future become? Scenarios representing future states Assigning probability ranges to representative scenarios Statoil CMU 218 Cicero: Shades of Climate Risks» Question 2: How does possible future outcomes influence the Enterprise? Direct effects on: Monetary risks Cash flow: revenues Cash flow: costs Cash flow: taxes Safety, security and business integrity risks Indirect effects via reputation 14

15 Agenda Om energiscenarier mange mulige fremtider, med ulike utfall og konsekvenser Om prisusikkerhet Om klimarisiko for et selskap Oppfølging TCFD, bærekraftsrapport En robust strategi for å ta høyde for ulike utfall 15

16 Statoil s evolving approach to climate risk Our starting point «Open» committed to transparency Sustainability Reports and Energy Perspectives Industry leader in carbon efficiency 22 climate targets Climate KPI Remuneration 1 st stress test Sharpened strategy Climate roadmap 2 nd stress test TCFD Support TCFD Preparer Forum 3 rd stress test Implementing TCFD SRI Day «Aiming for A» shareholder resolution TFCD initiative launched TFCD report published TFCD Preparer Forum report (June) 16

17 Implementing the TCFD recommendations Governance and risk management Climate KPI and targets Link to CEO remuneration Embedded in risk and performance management Integrated in investment decision criteria and economic planning assumptions Statoil ASA 217 Annual report and Form 2-F Statoil 217 Sustainability Report 17

18 Implementing the TCFD recommendations Resilience in a 2 -scenario Minimum carbon price used 5 USD/tonne Average break even next generation portfolio* 27 USD/bbl Important: Does not take into account portfolio adjustments Statoil 217 Sustainability Report Statoil 217 Sustainability Report *Statoil-and partner-operated projects, sanctioned since 215 or planned for sanction, with start-up by 222. Volume weighted. 18

19 Agenda Om energiscenarier mange mulige fremtider, med ulike utfall og konsekvenser Om prisusikkerhet Om klimarisiko for et selskap Oppfølging TCFD, bærekraftsrapport En robust strategi for å ta høyde for ulike utfall 19

20 2

21 Strategy positioned for a low carbon future Statoil 218 Capital Markets Update, CEO presentation 21

22 Statoil ASA This presentation, including the contents and arrangement of the contents of each individual page or the collection of the pages, are owned by Statoil. Copyright to all material including, but not limited to, written material, photographs, drawings, images, tables and data remains the property of Statoil. All rights reserved. Any other kind of use, reproduction, translation, adaption, arrangement, any other alteration, distribution or storage of this presentation, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Statoil is prohibited. The information contained in this presentation may not be accurate, up to date or applicable to the circumstances of any particular case, despite our efforts. Statoil cannot accept any liability for any inaccuracies or omissions.

23 Technology shift for light duty vehicles in all scenarios, and a revolution in Renewal Sales light duty vehicles Millions Light duty vehicle fleet composition Billions Fuel mix for LDVs Million toe 14 Other Electric vehicles Gasoline 214 Plug-in hybrids Diesel 25 3 Other Electric vehicles Gasoline 214 Plug-in hybrids Diesel Electricity Biomass Gas Oil Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 23

24 Decarbonise electricity, and go electric 13-doubling of wind, 39-doubling of solar generation in Renewal 1 Electricity generation mix % Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Solar and wind generation Thousand TWh (left), % (right) Solar Wind Electricity share of TFC % Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 24

25 Oil and gas dominate in other sectors contributing to maintaining demand for fossil fuels Fuel mix in final energy demand for transport excluding LDVs Billion toe Fuel mix in final energy demand for residential, commercial & industrial sectors Billion toe Electricity Biomass Gas Oil Coal Heat Electricity New RES Biomass Gas Oil Coal Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv Ref Ren Riv Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 25

26 Global oil and gas demand growth varies Depending on scenario but non-energy demand growth is significant Change in oil demand Mbd Change in gas demand Bcm Reform Renewal Rivalry Power & Heat Non-Energy Other Transport Maritime Aviation LDV Others Total change 1,5 1, , Reform Renewal Rivalry Source: IEA (history), Statoil (projections) 26

27 Implementing the TCFD recommendations Metrics and targets Statoil 217 Sustainability Report Mature reporting on metrics common in the oil and gas sector Reporting boundaries a challenge (operated vs equity) Relevant metrics to be further matured in TCFD Preparer Forum 27