Climate Change and Invasive Alien Species: Some Thoughts on Regulatory Challenges

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Invasive Alien Species: Some Thoughts on Regulatory Challenges Ian D. Campbell Five areas of policy challenges Range shifts and changes in phenology; Pest range shifts; host range shifts - longer growing seasons for plants, more life-cycles for bugs, new host-pest associations? Non-analogous climates and transitional niches something new under the sun? Changes in trade new patterns of risk of introduction? CO fertilization nearly completely unknown impacts? Uneven warming - challenges not distributed evenly, difficult to achieve international consensus?

2 Mainstreaming: Canada s approach to CCA Climate change is one risk/opportunity among many ( etc (globalization, technological change, In many ways it is not distinct from these other drivers Canada is therefore striving to mainstream climate change adaptation that is, build it in to the suite of drivers considered for any given policy decision not to treat it separately There is thus not so much a single CCA policy as there is a suite of activities and policies including CCA 3 Direct climate changes may not be well accounted for in risk assessments Increased frequency of weather now considered extreme e.g. droughts, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, heat waves These weather events may be critical in the establishment and proliferation of IAS, but are not always included in distribution models because they are assumed to be correlated with annual precipitation, growing degree days and similar measures that are used but will they stay correlated? 4

3 Range Shift Policy challenge: The potential range of pests may expand, making them harder to eradicate when detected Old pests may come in range of new hosts 5 Invasion risk and severity Policy challenge: impacts and severity of existing invasions may change, requiring new responses. Existing barriers to spread may lose effectiveness 3

4 A matter of definitions... o C when is an Alien... o C 4

5 not an alien o C but a Native? o C 5

6 Mountain Pine Beetle: severity increased, barrier crossed, range shifted Policy challenge: Definition of Invasive Alien Species depends on Native Range but how is the Native Range defined when the parameters controlling it change? Maps courtesy Allan Carroll and Jaques Regniere, Can. Forest Service What are we doing? Enhanced climate modeling efforts, including regional circulation models; Increased pest ecology research; exploring adaptations to standard models used in pest risk analysis such as CLIMEX; Information exchanges with trading partners. Finding ways of using Mountain Pine Beetle-killed wood, and diversifying forestry economies 6

7 Transitional Niches and host stress Policy challenge: New ecologies may create fertile ground for invasions, and may not be adequately factored into existing risk assessments 3 What are we doing? Increased surveillance Surveillance targeted at points of entry Managing on a case-by-case basis 4 7

8 Changes in Trade : production patterns Food and forestry trade is expected to increase [ ], with increased food-import dependance of most developing countries. - IPCC 007 Policy Challenge: New routes and likelihoods of introduction, particularly in developing countries 5 Changes in Trade : Northwest Passage Policy challenge: Increased trade between North Atlantic and North Pacific, with shorter transit times and therefore fresher and possibly more viable hitchhikers in cargo 6 8

9 What are we doing? Seeking new partnerships Research on improved surveillance and interception techniques 7 CO Fertilization Policy challenge: C 4 plants may be favoured by a more CO -rich atmosphere as well as by increased temperatures and drought. Few studies of CO impacts on insects. 8 9

10 What are we doing? Landscape ecology research and modeling Ecological modeling tied to climate models Enriched carbon growth chamber experiments Free air carbon enrichment experiments 9 The warming will not be even Policy Challenge: Some countries and regions will be more challenged by change than will others, and will be more interested in incorporating climate change in risk management than will others Even where change will be minor, need to think about impacts in IAS source-areas and introductions through trade. 0 0

11 What are we doing? Publicly exploring and discussing issues Developing and disseminating pest risk assessment training Exploring regionalization What issues do we need to consider? We need to think about how to incorporate climate change in risk assessment and risk management We need climate modeling and impacts modeling We need a better understanding of the ecology of pests and hosts, not just correlations We must examine our definitions and assumptions We must examine our goals preserving the current state into the future is not an option

12 Acknowledgements Thanks to Jaques Regniere and Allan Carroll of the Canadian Forest Service for slides on Mountain Pine Beetle and Asian Gypsy Moth Thanks to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency Ian D. Campbell Director, Integrated Natural Resources, Agriculture and Agri-food Canada Thanks to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency and the Canadian Forest Service Ian D. Campbell Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada 4