AgMIP Soil Wheat Sensitivity analysis

Transcription

1 AgMIP Soil Wheat Sensitivity analysis June 4, There are two sub-steps for the sensitivity analysis (A and B), for a total of 40 factors for each of the 4 locations and over 30 years. A - Special factors B - Limited factors The sensitivity analysis needs to be carried out with the calibrated model (calibrated against yield, biomass dynamics etc., with no changes from the calibration done for the AgMIP wheat) for each of our 4 locations (The Netherlands, India, Argentina, and Australia) and always for 30 years. Most of the factors (e.g. temperature change, heat days) are introduced to the baseline weather. The experiments from the four locations form the basis (e.g. same local management: dates and amounts as per baseline and future) and need to run continuously for 30 years (NO reinitialization) in a wheat-fallow rotation, with wheat planting and harvest dates indicated in the data files, and fallow running from harvest of wheat until the next planting. Manipulated weather files (for temperature and heat) are supplied ( ed and via the AgMIP website). There are a few Special factor simulations (S6-S11), which are to be carried out with the future scenarios (A single A2-2080s scenario, 734ppm). Modelers will have to manipulate other factors in their models as requested, including N (using same dates as per baseline and future), sowing, plant available soil water content and CO 2 (following the guidelines below). Note, the baseline for each location (and for S6-11, the future scenario) has been previously simulated with the all information and these are the controls. Conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT) treatments are introduced. CT treatment has tillage 2 days before planting with chisel plow (25 cm), which is finished 1 day before planting with a cultivator. Residues are incorporated into 0-25 cm layer at plowing. NT treatment has residues left on the surface. Substeps Factors Simulations per location (each for 30 years) Comments A Special factors 22 Baseline for S1-S5 (Table 1) Future for S6-S11 (Table 1) B Limited factors 58 Baseline and supplied modified baseline weather files (click here) ( T1-T5, C1-C5 + limited T x C + limited C x N ) 2. Start with A - Special factors, 22 simulations for each of our 4 locations and 30 years click here. 3. Once you have run the 22 Special factors simulations save the results in the 30-year template (Template.csv) one file per simulated factor. The file should be named: Model code (2 LETTER CODE) + Location (2 LETTER CODE) + Factor label (described in Table 1) +Tillage(CT or NT) +.csv. For example, the file name for the first run for the STICS model at The Netherlands location with conventional tillage should be STNLS01CT.csv 4. The Limited factors simulations (B) include 58 simulations for each of our 4 locations and 30 years baseline (or manipulated baseline). For details of the 58 Limited factors simulations click here. 5. After simulating the Limited factor simulations (B) save the results (1 file per factor) using the same Template.csv file and renamed to: Model code (2 LETTER CODE) + Location (2 LETTER 1

2 CODE) + Factor label for Temperature (T1-T5) + Factor label for [CO 2 ] (C1-C5) + Factor label for N (N1-N3) +Tillage(CT or NT) +.csv. For example, one of the file names for the STICS model at The Netherlands location with the combinations T1, C1, N1,CT should be STNLT1C1N1CT.csv 6. The manipulated baseline weather files for the sensitivity analysis are supplied by and are available on the AgMIP website ( A list is given here. 7. We introduced a Soil wheat factor description checklist that can help you with sorting out the runs you need to send us. Special Factors: The special factors simulations include 22 simulations for each of our 4 locations with 30 years (44 simulations in total). Table 1 describes the 22 simulations and the associated factor labels. The baseline +/-50% N will be done in the Limited factors simulation (B). The manipulated baseline weather files for heat stress for each location for S01 are: NLHASXA1.AgMIP INDESXA1.AgMIP ARBASXA1.AgMIP AUWHSXA1.AgMIP Table 1. Description of 11 (once for CT and once for NT) Special factors simulations and labels. Special Factor description Factor label 1. Baseline (360ppm) + 7 days of T max =35 o C start at measured anthesis S01 date 2. Baseline (360ppm) - 20 days in sowing date S02 3. Baseline (360ppm) + 20 days in sowing date S03 4. Baseline (360ppm) - 20% PAW* of soil S04 5. Baseline (360ppm) + 20% PAW* of soil S05 6. Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) - 20 days in sowing date S06 7. Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) + 20 days in sowing date S07 8. Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) 50% N fertilizer S08 9. Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) 150% N fertilizer S Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) - 20% PAW of soil S Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) + 20% PAW of soil S11 *PAW= Plant Available Water, -+20% by reducing/increasing DUL by 20%. The +/- 20 days in sowing date, +/- 20% PAW of soil and +/- 50% N are reported in the Tables 2-4 below: 2

3 Table 2. Baseline sowing dates, -20 and +20 days in sowing date for the 4 locations. Please move the dates of N applications and irrigation (where applicable) accordingly (-20 and +20 days) in the simulations with baseline and future. Location: Sowing dates (DOY) Baseline -20 days +20 days The Netherlands India Argentina Australia Table 3. Modified Drain Upper Limit (DUL) for +/- 20% of PAW for each location. The Netherlands drained upper limit Depth Modified DUL (cm) Baseline DUL (-20% PAW) (+20% PAW) India drained upper limit Depth Modified DUL (cm) Baseline DUL (-20% PAW) (+20% PAW)

4 Argentina drained upper limit Depth Modified DUL (cm) Baseline DUL (-20% PAW) (+20% PAW) Australia drained upper limit Depth Modified DUL (cm) Baseline DUL (-20% PAW) (+20% PAW)

5 Table 4a. Baseline amount for N Fertilizer application and -/+ 50% N for each location. Location: Stage Application date For baseline weather data The Netherlands terminal spikelet 121 (2cd year) anthesis 161 (2cd year) Application date For future weather data N Fertilizer (kg N / ha) DOY DOY 100% 50% N 150% N 103 (2cd year) (2cd year) India sowing tillering Argentina sowing Three days after Australia sowing Table 4b. Baseline and future irrigated scenario for India. India Irrigation (mm) Baseline Baseline DOY Future Future DOY I1 50 sowing 328 sowing 328 I2 80 early tillering 348 early tillering 343 DOY (2cd year) DOY (2cd year) I3 47 early stem elongation 18 early stem elongation 9 I4 108 anthesis 49 anthesis 31 I5 98 mid grain filling 75 mid grain filling 56 5

6 Limited factors: The Limited factors include 58 simulations for our 4 locations and 30 years (= 232 simulations): T1 T5 for normal N (= 10 simulations) C2* C5 for normal N (= 8 simulations) C1 C5 for 50% N (= 10 simulations) C1 C5 for 150% N (= 10 simulations) C1 C5 for +3 C (= 10 simulations) C1 C5 for +6 C (= 10 simulations) *C1 is the baseline and has been already simulated. Table 5. Description of the factors used for the Limited factors simulations. Factor description Factor Label/factor T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 Baseline + -3 C 0 C +3 C +6 C +9 C Temperature* Baseline + C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 CO 2 levels 360ppm 450ppm 540ppm 630ppm 720ppm Baseline + N1 N2 N3 N 100% 50% 150% Tillage CT NT T CT NT *Note, Tmax and Tmin have been changed together and all the temperatures are offsets from baseline temperature. More details can be found in the weather file data description. +/- 50% N is the percentage of N that has to be added/subtracted from the reference N (referred here as 100% N) for a given location (Table 6a). Table 6a. Baseline N Fertilizer application and -/+ 50% N for each location (repeat of Table 4a). Location: Stage Application date N Fertilizer (kg N / ha) DOY 100% (Baseline) 50% N 150% N The Netherlands terminal spikelet 121 (2cd year) anthesis 161 (2cd year) India sowing tillering Argentina sowing Three days after Australia sowing

7 Table 6b. Nitrogen application dates (DOY) for the 5 temperature changes for the 4 locations. Location: Stage Application date For baseline weather data T Changes DOY The Netherlands terminal spikelet 121 (2cd year) 139 (2cd year) 121 (2cd year) 103 (2cd year) 85 (2cd year) 67 (2cd year) anthesis 161 (2cd year) 179 (2cd year) 161 (2cd year) 143 (2cd year) 125(2cd year) 107 (2cd year) India sowing tillering Argentina sowing Australia Three days after sowing Table 6c. Irrigation application dates (DOY) for the 5 temperature changes for India. Baseline T Changes India Irrigation (mm) Baseline DOY I1 50 sowing I2 80 early tillering DOY (2cd year) DOY (2cd year) DOY (2cd year) DOY (2cd year) DOY (2cd year) I3 47 early stem elongation I4 108 anthesis I5 98 mid grain filling Table 7. Common tillage treatments (all 4 locations). Tillage treatment CT NT Description Conventional tillage. Chisel plowed 2 days before planting (25 cm), soil cultivated 1 day before planting. Residues are incorporated into 0-25 cm layer at plowing. No tillage. Residues left on the surface 7

8 Weather data: Manipulated weather files are ed and are available at the AgMIP website ( Temperature changes: -3, 0, +3, +6, +9 o C. The files are 8-digit files, coded similarly to the previous weather data: For example: NLHASX52.AgMIP NL=Netherlands; HA=Haarweg; S=Sensitivity scenario; X=No GCM used 5=5th temperature change (T5 from Table 5) 2= do not worry about the last number; it will be always 2 here. The file identification is also included in the file headers within the files. Relative humidity (RH) is maintained after temperature shifts, so there is internal consistency between Tmax and the moisture variables (as before). All weather files have the extension AgMIP. Table 9. The weather files for sub-step B (Limited factors). T Change The Netherlands India Argentina Australia -3 C NLHASX12 INDESX12 ARBASX12 AUWHSX12 0 C NLHASX22 INDESX22 ARBASX22 AUWHSX22 +3 C NLHASX32 INDESX32 ARBASX32 AUWHSX32 +6 C NLHASX42 INDESX42 ARBASX42 AUWHSX42 +9 C NLHASX52 INDESX52 ARBASX52 AUWHSX52 For example, NLHASX12 is the weather file is for the Netherlands for the -3 o C. Note, NLHASX22, INDESX22, ARBASX22, and AUWHSX22 refer to the 0 o C temperature change and are identical to the baseline ( XXX. ) for consistency. You can use either of them. NLHASX22 = NLHA0XXX INDESX22 = INDE0XXX ARBASX22 = ARBA0XXX AUWHSX22 = AUWH0XXX 8

9 Soil Wheat factor description checklist (Print it eight times, one for each location and each of tillage treatments.) Special Factor description Factor label Check 1.Baseline (360ppm) + 7 days of T max =35 o C start at measured anthesis date (weather data from Special Factors ) S01 2. Baseline (360ppm) - 20 days in sowing date (use baseline weather data file) S02 3. Baseline (360ppm) + 20 days in sowing date (use baseline weather data file) S03 4. Baseline (360ppm) - 20% PAW* of soil (use baseline weather data file) S04 5. Baseline (360ppm) + 20% PAW* of soil (use baseline weather data file) S05 6. Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) - 20 days in sowing date S06 7.Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) + 20 days in sowing date S07 8. Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) 50% N fertilizer S08 9.Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) 150% N fertilizer S Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) - 20% PAW of soil S10 11.Future (single A2-2080s scenario; 734ppm) + 20% PAW of soil S Baseline (360ppm) -3C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T1C1N1 13. Baseline (360ppm) 0C and 100% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C1N1 14. Baseline (360ppm) +3C and 100%N (use weather data from Table 9) T3C1N1 15. Baseline (360ppm) +6C and 100%N (use weather data from Table 9) T4C1N1 16. Baseline (360ppm) +9C and 100%N (use weather data from Table 9) T5C1N1 17. Baseline (450ppm) 0C and 100% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C2N1 18. Baseline (540ppm) 0C and 100% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C3N1 19. Baseline (630ppm) 0C and 100% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C4N1 20. Baseline (720ppm) 0C and 100% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C5N1 21. Baseline (360ppm) 0C and 50% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C1N2 22. Baseline (450ppm) 0C and 50% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C2N2 23. Baseline (540ppm) 0C and 50% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C3N2 24. Baseline (630ppm) 0C and 50% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C4N2 25. Baseline (720ppm) 0C and 50% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C5N2 26. Baseline (360ppm) 0C and 150% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C1N3 27. Baseline (450ppm) 0C and 150% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C2N3 28. Baseline (540ppm) 0C and 150% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C3N3 29. Baseline (630ppm) 0C and 150% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C4N3 30. Baseline (720ppm) 0C and 150% N (use baseline weather data file) T2C5N3 31. Baseline (360ppm) +3C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T3C1N1 32. Baseline (450ppm) +3C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T3C2N1 33. Baseline (540ppm) +3C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T3C3N1 34. Baseline (630ppm) +3C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T3C4N1 35. Baseline (720ppm) +3C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T3C5N1 36. Baseline (360ppm) +6C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T4C1N1 37. Baseline (450ppm) +6C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T4C2N1 38. Baseline (540ppm) +6C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T4C3N1 39. Baseline (630ppm) +6C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T4C4N1 40. Baseline (720ppm) +6C and 100% N (use weather data from Table 9) T4C5N1 9