Global Warming 101: Al Gore s CO 2 Theory

Transcription

1 Global Warming 101: Al Gore s Theory Willie Soon (vanlien@earthlink.net) Popular claims of a 2000-year hockeystick history and the present level of 380 ppm never been seen since at least the past 650,000 years can be shown to be false. The level of atmospheric is controlled by temperature and other biological and chemical variables not the other way around. The magical knob for controlling climate and its variability and change simply does not exist Certainly not for Salt Lake City, Utah! Tsuga heterophylla or western hemlock: Better recorder of than (corrupted) air bubbles in ice cores? UN IPCC scientists repeatedly said levels cannot vary naturally with large amplitude BUT they are wrong! deduced from stomata: A bathtub? deduced from air bubbles in ice cores: A hockey stick? Carbon emission from fossil fuel burning annually is very small compared to other flows/exchanges of carbon in the global carbon reservoirs Flows of carbon in Billion tons /year Soil/Plant- 90 Surface Ocean- 95 Surface- Deeper Ocean 45 Marine Biota- Surface Ocean 50 Cows and animals 5.3 Fossil Fuel- Roughly equivalent to 0.01 to 0.1 inches/year of the world s topsoil (Dyson 2005) AND smaller than cow+animal emissions contrary to popular belief! Kouwenberg (2004) PhD thesis (Figure 5.4)+Koewenberg et al. (2005) Source: United Nations IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) and Second Assessment Report (1996) Why don t we simply restrict the human component of emissions anyway? 380 ppm: TODAY s level Stressed conditions (closer to real-world) Why don t we simply restrict the human component of emissions anyway? How about the real threats from starvation in TODAY plants? Optimal for plants! Non-stressed Robinson et al. (1998) + Soon et al. (1999) Climate Research, vol. 13, Robinson et al. (1998) + Soon et al. (1999) Climate Research, vol. 13,

2 But DOES NOT drive temperature, it is the temperature that is causing to change in this chart! The Al Gore s chart warmer 10 C cooler temperature 650 Present thousand years ago Siegenthaler, Stocker et al. (2005) Science, vol. 310, ; Spahni et al. (2005) Science, vol. 310, Al Gore, p. 67 of AIT: It s a complicated relationship, but the most important part of it is this: When there is more in the atmosphere, the temperature increases because more heat from the Sun is trapped inside.... There is not a single part of this graph no fact, date, or number that is controversial in any way or in dispute by anybody. Can one argue that lung cancer causes cigarette smoking? time follows CH 4 follows Temperature leads first [We] obtained ages of 17,000 ± 200 years for the start of the increase and 17,800 ± 300 years for the start of δd [temperature] increase. We found that the start of the increase thus lagged the start of the δd [temperature] increase by 800 ± 600 years... Monnin et al. (2001) Science, vol. 291, Gore is ignoring the conclusion of temperature leading by the original authors of the EPICA ice-core project The lags of with respect to the Antarctic temperature over glacial terminations V to VII are 800, 1600, and 2800 years, respectively, which are consistent with earlier observations during the last four glacial cycles. [from Vostok records] (Siegenthaler et al., 2005, Science, vol. 310, ) Page 18: But it is well-known from science literature that it was the temperature change that controls the atmospheric levels not the other way around 2

3 temperature Flip-page on page 18 Flip-page on page 18: The chart tells young readers that atmospheric causes the temperature to warm or cool!!! Serious factual errors in David & Gordon (2007) s The Down-to-Earth Guide to Global Warming temperature But there is a serious ERROR! The orange-colored curve is the temperature data series while the blue-colored curve is!!! I have reviewed the figure on page 18 of The Down-to-Earth Guide to Global Warming. It appears that the labeling of the axes has been reversed. As a result, the curve labeled carbon dioxide concentration should be labeled climate temperature, and vice versa. However, the description of the figure in the accompanying text is accurate, and it fairly represents the current state of scientific knowledge, in terms that would be comprehensible to children 8-years of age or older. Michael Oppenheimer (November 19, 2007) Can anyone confirm the effects of affecting the hydrologic cycle in US record? dust-bowl 3

4 Extremely high levels during winters at SLC! But where is the winter warming impact of the high levels at SLC? Utah History Salt Lake Valley ~1870s Salt Lake Valley

5 The Sun is more likely the dominant driver of the recorded Arctic temperature variations Solar versus radiative forcings over the past 150 years: Why the Sun is a more important climate driver! Estimated radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere (W/m 2 ) Sun CO2 Baseline Baseline+Change IPCC (2007) Brady- Climate How the Sun may shine? Refrigerator Perry- Sun Willie- Hiremath (2008) + private communications It is the business of the future to be dangerous; and it is among the merits of science that it equips the future for its duties Alfred North Whitehead ( ) 5