Regional Seminar on SWAT, SANREM Book Launch and SWAT Workshop, Bogor, Indonesia (SWAT School of Bogor) June 27-29, 2012

Transcription

1 Regional Seminar on SWAT, SANREM Book Launch and SWAT Workshop, Bogor, Indonesia (SWAT School of Bogor) June 27-29, 2012

2 Content Introduction Watershed Description Methodology Results Conclusions 8/10/2012 Nguyen Kim Loi 2

3 Quang Nam Problem Identification Water Problems/Disasters (landslide, drought, flash flood, etc) High Growth Population, Social Complex Economic Growth Needs (hydropower construction, road building, deforestation) Land Use Change/Planning 8/10/2012 Nguyen Kim Loi 3

4 Objectives To assess climate change impacts on ecosystems and livelihood in Dong Giang district, Quang Nam province; To make policy recommendations to decision maker on climate change impacts to adapt in the new context. 8/10/2012 Nguyen Kim Loi 4

5 Study area description 2012 SWAT Int. Conference

6 Climate Trend in Dong Giang district

7 Rainfall Trend in Dong Giang district Source: SEA-START Center, RCCC-NLU, Dragon Inst.

8 Temperature Trend in Dong Giang district Source: SEA-START Center, RCCC-NLU, Dragon Inst.

9 Being prepared for climate change: If adaptation is the answer, what is the question? How should we plan for adaptation? Issues of concern: Climate is one input among many Multiple Stressors Multiple Stakeholders Climate Other Stressors Policy & Politics Milind Kandlikar Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia Ambuj Sagar John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

10 Climate Change Adaptation in Context of Sustainable Development Holistic view on climate change risk: We cannot consider single sector nor look at climate change as isolate issue Shift and change in seasonality / rainfall distribution / etc. Water resource / ecosystem integrity / Natural hazard / etc. Climate change Bio-physical Farmer Urban Agriculture / Fisheries / Forest ecosystem / Tourism / Urban / Etc. Tourism Fisherman Water allocation policy / market condition / migration / public infrastructure / etc. Institution / Governance / Development scheme Socio-economic change Source: Suppakorn, 2010

11 SWAT model Input Data Processing and Display 2012 SWAT Int. Conference DEM Watershed Delineation SWAT Databases Hydrography Land Use HRU Definition Parameterization Editing Calibration Run SWAT Model Soils Weather Stations Validation Weather Output

12 Data Collection Types of data Precipitation, Temperature Topography Soil erosion parameters Land use maps Sources of data Quang Nam Meteorological Department Institute of Water Resource Research in HCMC Department of Land Development Department of Agriculture and Rural Development 8/10/2012 Nguyen Kim Loi 12

13 Methodology 2012 SWAT Int. Conference The Markov Chain model was applied this research for land use prediction. Proportion of land use of the first date * Matrix of probability of land use change = Proportion of land use of the second date This can be transformed in general matrix multiplication as: γ 11, γ 12, γ 13,γ 14,γ 15 γ 21, γ 22, γ 23,γ 24,γ 25 [V 1, V 2,V 3,V 4,V 5 ] t+1 = * [V 1, V 2,V 3,V 4, V 5 ] t γ 31, γ 32,γ 33, γ 34,γ 35 γ 41, γ 42, γ 43,γ 44,γ 45 γ 51, γ 52, γ 53,γ 54,γ 55

14 Methodology The next step of the planning process is to formulate two scenarios. Two climate scenarios are formulated for Vu Gia watershed as input of SWAT model. Scenario A: Climate scenario (2010s). Scenario B: Climate scenario (2030s). Scenario A: Climate scenario (2010s) Scenario B: Climate scenario (2030s) SWAT Comparison Suggestions to Decision Maker 8/10/2012 Nguyen Kim Loi 14

15 Application of SWAT model for Vu Gia watershed 8/10/2012 Nguyen Kim Loi 15

16 Results and Discussion 2012 SWAT Int. Conference Probability of Land Use Changes 2000 to 2008 Initial Proportion Area in 2000 F A U O S [ ] * (2000) Matrix of Land use change from 2000 to [ ] F A U O S (2008) Computed Proportion Area in 2008

17 Results and Discussion 2012 SWAT Int. Conference Monthly stream flow calibration ( ) Statistics Monthly stream flow (m 3 /s) Measured SWAT Calib ratio n Mean Max Min Range Standard deviation Correlation coefficient 0.65

18 Results and Discussion Daily stream flow validation SWAT Int. Conference Statistics 2002 daily stream flow (m 3 /s) Measure d SWAT Valid ation Mean Max Min Range Standard deviation Correlation coefficient 0.66

19 Month 2012 SWAT Int. Conference Results and Discussion The SWAT output for Vu Gia watershed using Climate data 2010s (Scenario A) and 2030s (Scenario B) Scenario A (2010s) Rainfall (mm) Surface runoff Q (mm) Sediment yield (ton/ha) Scenario B (2030s) Scenario A (2010s) Scenario B (2030s) Scenario A (2010s) Scenario B (2030s)

20 Results and Discussion Comparison SWAT output from two scenarios No. Parameters Units Scenario A Scenario Scenario B 1 Precipitation mm Surface runoff mm Sediment yield ton/ha

21 Results and Discussion Effect of extreme weather phenomenon on natural and socioeconomic conditions of Vu Gia watershed

22 Results and Discussion 2012 SWAT Int. Conference Analyses process for ecological modifications driven by climate change and human activities Human activities Climate change PRA Deforestation Mining Changes in climate pattern Increasing Rainfall Flash flood Landslide SWAT Future landuse scenario SWAT analyses Future climate scenario Sedimentation Scale

23 Conclusions 2012 SWAT Int. Conference This research is the first step apply SWAT in Vu Gia watershed. The SWAT model performed well in simulating the general trend of surface runoff, sediment yield in the watershed over time for daily, monthly intervals. The results shown that the Climate Change will be affected surface runoff, sediment yield. An increase about 30% in surface runoff occurs between 2010s and 2030s. Meanwhile, sediment yield increase about 54.8% compared between 2010s (24.96 ton/ha) and 2030s (38.66 ton/ha). The recent adaptation to deal with changes in ecology and socio-economics requires further attention from the authority for more appropriate policies and strategies to support local people for better livelihoods. 8/10/2012 Nguyen Kim Loi 23

24 Future research directions

25 Acknowledgements 2012 SWAT Int. Conference Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA) Nong Lam University (NLU), Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), Vietnam

26 Acknowledgements 2012 SWAT Int. Conference The authors acknowledge the APN (Asia- Pacific Network for Global Change Research) funded Building research capacity on assessing community livelihood vulnerability to climate change impact in central Vietnam and Mekong River delta project for funding this research. 8/10/2012 Nguyen Kim Loi 26

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